Mitigation of climate change in the forest sector and the challenge - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mitigation of climate change in the forest sector and the challenge - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mitigation of climate change in the forest sector and the challenge of monitoring land cover in Northern Eurasia

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Mitigation of climate change in the forest sector and the challenge of monitoring land cover in Northern Eurasia Смягчение последствий изменений климата в лесном секторе и проблемы мониторинга растительности на территории Северной Евразии

  • Dr. Olga Krankina (Oregon State University, USA)

Ольга Николаевна Кранкина (Орегонский Государственный Университет, США)

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Outline План доклада

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

  • Mitigation of climate change in IPCC 4th

Assessment Report

– Role of forests and forest sector – Uncertainties and research priorities

  • Monitoring land cover in Northern Eurasia

– Challenges and opportunities – NELDA Project

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http://www.ipcc.ch/

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 is to be shared, in two equal parts, between the Intergovernmental Panel

  • n Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. for their efforts to

build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change. The Norwegian Nobel Committee Oslo, 12 October 2007

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The challenge

Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70%

GtCO2-eq/yr

Total Greenhouse Gas emissions

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

1970 1980 1990 2000 2004

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A1 A2 B C D E

Stabilizing global mean temperature requires a stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

The lower the aspired temperature increase, the lower the concentration stabilisation level

2 4 6 8 10 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Equilibrium global mean temperature increase over pre-industrial (°C) GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2 –eq)

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All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute

Energy supply Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

<20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100 <20 <50 <100

Developing Countries Economies in Transition OECD Countries World total GtCO2-eq/yr

Emission reductions based on the end-use of energy

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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Gert- Jan Nabuurs & Omar Masera Michael Dutschke, Elnour Elsiddig, Justin Ford- Robertson, Peter Frumhof f , Rizaldi Boer, Timo Karjalainen, Olga Krankina, Werner Kurz, Mitsuo Matsumoto, Walter Oyhantcabal, Ravindranath, Maria Sanz Sanchez, Zhang Xiaoquan

WG III - Chapter 9 Forestry

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Принципиальные подходы к смягчению последствий изменений климата в лесном секторе

Forest sector mitigation strategies

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Снижение выбросов в атмосферу Увеличение запасов углерода Сектор землепользования Лесной сектор Общественное потребление Ископаемое топливо Био-топливо Нелесное землепользование Лесные экосистемы Продукция деревообр. Продукция др. секторов

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  • Изменение запаса углерода – мера

эффективности мероприятий в лесном секторе

  • НЕТТО-СТОК = РОСТ ЗАПАСА УГЛЕРОДА
  • НЕТТО-ИСТОЧНИК = УМЕНЬШЕНИЕ ЗАПАСА

– Большая часть научных публикаций рассматривает именно изменение запасов углерода – Перевод в единицы СО2 сделан для сопоставимости с другими секторами

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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Исторический ход изменений углеродного баланса в географических регионах Historical forest carbon balance (MtCO2) per region, 1855-2000 (Houghton 2003).

. EECCA=Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Вырубка лесов в тропиках и рост лесных площадей и запасов углерода в лесах большинства развитых стран – основные факторы изменения углеродного баланса лесов мира в 90-е годы. Выбросы в атмосферу связанные с вырубкой тропических лесов оцениваются в 5,8 Gt CO2 / год

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StandCarb Model output, M. Harmon (adapted from Cohen et al. 1996) Ход поглощения и эмиссий углерода в лесной экосистеме The course of carbon accumulation and loss in forest ecosystem

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 450 550 650 750 850 950 Time [years] Carbon Store [Mg/ha]

40 years 60 years 80 years 100 years 120 years 160 years

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 450 550 650 750 850 950 Time [years] Landscape store (MgC/ha)

40 years 60 years 80 years 100 years 120 years 160 years

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Cumulative carbon changes for a scenario involving afforestation and harvest (adapted from Marland and Schlamadinger, 1999)

Углерод нарастающим итогом (т С/га) Время (лет)

Биоэнергетика Замена энергоемких материалов Отходы Краткосрочная продукция деревообработки Долгосрочная продукция деревообработки Деревья Опад и отпад Почва

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Credit: S. Conard, USDA FS

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Dead trees do not go to heaven

Погибшие деревья на небо не возносятся

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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Conceptual diagram of options (Apps, 2006)

Снижение выбросов Увеличение запасов Тип влияния

Динамика Воздей- ствия Динамика Затрат Тип воздей- ствия

Увеличение площади лесов (лесоразведение) Предотвращение потери лесного покрова Увелич. запасов углерода в древостоях (интенсивн. л/х, удобр.) Предотвращение потерьзапаса углерода в древостоях Увеличение запасов углерода на уровне ландшафта Предотвращение снижения запаса углерода на уровне ландшафта Накопление углерода в продукции деревообработки Биоэнергетика и замена энергоемких материалов Виды Мероприятий

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Main Conclusions – Основные выводы

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

  • Measures in the forest sector can contribute significantly to mitigation

potential in many regions

– Меры в лесном секторе могут внести значительный вклад в программы смягчения последствий изменения климата во многих регионах

  • Advantages include low costs of some measures, long duration, good

potential for integration with conservation policies and sustainable development goals

– Преимущества мер в лесном секторе включают низкие затраты и длительность действия стока СО2, а также возможности интеграции с мерами по охране окружающей среды и рациональному использованию природных ресурсов

  • Selection of effective measures depends on the target time frame аnd

regional conditions

– Выбор эффективных мер зависит от целевого срока и конкретных услобий региона

  • In the near term (1-20 years) - conservation measures appear most

effective including preventing deforestation, extending harvest rotation, protecting high-biomass forests from disturbance

– для ближайшего будущего наиболее эффективна – охрана лесов, включая предотвращение рубок в тропиках, удлиннение оборота рубки в лесах с активным ведением хозяйства, охрана лесов с высокими запасами биомассы от любых нарушений

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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Оценки стока углегода в лесном секторе Российской Федерации Russian Federation forest sector carbon sink projections, Note: positive = sink.

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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

TAR 4AR regional modelling (< 20 $) 4AR top-down (< 20 $) Annual economic mitigation potential (Mt CO

2 a

  • 1)

Экономический потенциал (Мт СО2/год)

Третий Доклад об Оценке Четвертый Доклад об Оценке

Региональные Модели (<$20/т СO2)

Четвертый Доклад об Оценке

Глобальные Модели (<$20/т СO2)

Main Conclusions – Основные выводы: Global potential –Глобальный потенциал

1600

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Леса России и «леса Киото»: роль в поглощении углерода

Леса Киото – 1,5-4,0 МтС/год Леса России – 107-429 МтС/год

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Forest definitions: IGBP legend : percent tree cover >60% / tree height >2m GLC2000 legend : percent tree cover >15% / tree height >3m

Forest land in global land cover datasets

Source: Martin Herold, GOFC-GOLD NERIN regional workshop, St. Petersburg, June 2005

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Live biomass estimate for Russian forest is 30% higher based on GLC-2000 than on MODIS.IGBP map

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(Northern Eurasia Landcover Dynamics Analysis)

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  • The Team

– US

  • Oregon State University - Olga N. Krankina
  • NASA Goddard Space Flight Center – Jeff Masek and Jeff Morisette
  • Boston University - Mark Friedl and Curtis Woodcock
  • University of Maryland - Ivan Csiszar, Guoqing Sun, and Tatiana Loboda
  • USDA FS Pacific Northwest Research Station – Warren Cohen

– Eurasia

  • Center for Information Technologies Development, Moscow – Alexander Maslov
  • Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Tomsk – Evgeny Gordov
  • V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Krasnoyarsk – Slava Kharuk
  • Institute of Biology, Komi Scientific Center, Syktyvkar – Vladimir Elsakov
  • Humboldt Universität Berlin, Germany - Patrick Hostert and Tobias Kuemmerle
  • Astrophysical Research Centre, Almaty, Kazakhstan – Lev Spivak and Alexey

Terekhov

  • Mongolia?
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Now we can compare results across sites

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GLC-2000 MODIS

  • IGBP 2001

Land Cover of Northern Eurasia

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Similarity matrix for the GLC2000 and MODIS-PFT legends

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

GLC-2000.LCCS (rows) MODIS.PFT (columns)

Needleleaf evergreen t ree Broadleaf evergreen t ree Needleleaf deciduous t ree Broadleaf deciduoud t ree Shrub Grass Cereal crop Broadleaf crop Urban and built -up Snow and ice Barren or sparsely vegetat ed Wat er 1 Tree Cover, broadleaved, evergreen T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 2 Tree Cover, broadleaved, deciduous, closed T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 3 Tree Cover, broadleaved, deciduous,

  • pen

T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 4 Tree Cover, needle-leaved, evergreen T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 5 Tree Cover, needle-leaved, deciduous T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 6 Tree Cover, mixed leaf t ype T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 7 Tree Cover, regularly flooded, fresh wat er T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 8 Tree Cover, regularly flooded, saline wat er T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 9 Mosaic: Tree cover / Ot her nat ural veget at ion T T T T S H t h th t b t b t b lw 10 Tree Cover, burnt T T T T t s t h t h th t b t b t b lw 11 Shrub Cover, closed-open, evergreen t s t s t s t s S sh sh sh sb sb sb lw 12 Shrub Cover, closed-open, deciduous t s t s t s t s S sh sh sh sb sb sb lw 13 Herbaceous Cover, closed-open t h t h t h t h sh H H H hb hb hb lw 14 Sparse Herbaceous or sparse shrub cover t b tb t b tb sb hb hb hb B B B lw 15 Regularly flooded shrub and/ or herbaceous cover t s t s t s t s S H H H hb hb hb lw 16 Cult ivat ed and managed areas t h t h t h t h sh H H H hb hb hb lw 17 Mosaic: Cropland / Tree Cover / Ot her nat ural veget at ion T T T T S H H H hb hb hb lw

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Agreement in dominant vegetation cover (54%)

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Agreement matrix for GLC-2000 and MODIS.PFT

dominant vegetation types excluding water, 1000 km2

MODIS .PFT GLC-2000 Tree S hrub Herbaceous Barren Agreement Tree 2,395 1,697 351 7 4,450 54% S hrub 200 1,922 105 31 2,258 85% Herbaceous 24 698 160 34 916 17% Barren 12 973 64 183 1,232 15% 2,630 5,290 680 255 8,855 Agreement 91% 36% 23% 72% 53%

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Dominant Vegetation Types

Northern Eurasia Komi

  • St. Petersburg
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Field data High resolution imagery High resolution “Product” Moderate resolution “Product” A B C D Transfer function Aggregate & Relate R T

Accuracy Assessment

for one product, at one site, at one point in time

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NELDA user's t rees shrubs herbs barren water accuracy GLC-2000 t rees 11,801 1, 096 1, 543 509 348 15297 77.1% shrubs 2 1 1 1 1 6 13.2% herbs 421 336 734 288 42 1821 40.3% barren 31 11 11 356 32 441 80.8% wat er 200 22 20 63 2, 273 2577 88.2% 12455 1465 2309 1217 2695 20142 producer's accuracy

  • 94. 8%
  • 0. 1%

31.8% 29.3%

  • 84. 3%
  • 75. 3%

kappa = 50.7% NELDA user's trees shrubs herbs barren water accuracy MODIS t rees 12,430 1,424 1,955 834 375 17018 73.0% shrubs 113 93 75 65 40 387 24.1% herbs 241 270 1,211 404 60 2186 55.4% barren 50 39 62 282 43 475 59.3% wat er 168 18 24 40 2,206 2456 89.8% 13001 1844 3327 1626 2723 22522 producer's accuracy 95.6% 5.0% 36.4% 17.3% 81.0% 72.0% kappa = 47.5%

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Herbaceous –ag. cropland Herbaceous – ag. abandon

IRS LISS III (resolution 23 m) May, 2005.

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NELDA additions and extensions

  • Land-cover and land use change in the heart of

Asia

– Recently funded by APN

  • Contribution to Studies of LCLUC in Northern

Eurasia

– Proposal to NASA-LCLUC in preparation – Examine broad continental-scale patterns of land-cover change and assess socio-economic drivers and environmental controls

  • Synthesis of studies of the impact of the collapse
  • f the Soviet Union on land cover and land use

– Proposal to NCEAS in preparation – Kathleen Bergen, PI

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Conclusions

  • The role of Russian forests in the global carbon cycle and

the mitigation potential of the Russian forest sector remain uncertain

  • Information on land cover is improving but

– Disagreement among maps is substantial – Validation remains a challenge – Assessment of strengths and weaknesses is needed

  • Remotely sensed data provides a rich source of information

from which accurate and spatially consistent results can be extracted but several critical data needs remain:

– Capacity to utilize available data – Methods for extracting useful information from data –

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Globe-flower – Trollius asiaticus