Minerals and metals for a low Carbon Future: the need for Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Minerals and metals for a low Carbon Future: the need for Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 24, 2024 186 likes •360 views

Minerals and metals for a low Carbon Future: the need for Climate Smart Mining Kirsten Hund World Bank Energy and Extractives Presentation outline 01 02 03 04 1. Why a low- 2. What does this 3. The need for 4. Way forward

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Minerals and metals for a low Carbon Future: the need for ‘Climate Smart Mining’

Kirsten Hund World Bank Energy and Extractives

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Presentation outline

  • 1. Why a low-

carbon future will be more mineral intensive

01

  • 2. What does this

mean for resource- rich countries and producer companies

02

  • 3. The need for ‘

climate smart’ mining

03

  • 4. Way forward

04

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3 One 3-MW turbine contains

  • 335 tons of steel.
  • 4.7 tons of copper.
  • 1,200 tons of concrete

(cement and aggregates)

  • 3 tons of aluminum.
  • 2 tons of rare earth elements.
  • zinc
  • molybdenum

Source: (NW Mining Association)

Without metals there would simply be no low carbon future possible…

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4

Electric hybrid cars use twice as much copper as non-hybrid cars

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The Growing Role of Minerals for a Low carbon future

Examines the implications of changing material requirements for the mining/metals industry as a result of low carbon energy future.

How can resource rich developing countries best position themselves to take advantage of the evolving commodities market ?

5

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IEA’s ETP 2016 Scenarios

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

Electricity Installed Capacity (GW)

6 degree scenario

Hydro (excl. pumped storage) Coal Natural Gas Oil Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass Geothermal Ocean 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

4 degree scenario

Hydro (excl. pumped storage) Coal Natural Gas Oil Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass Geothermal Ocean 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

2 degree scenario

Hydro (excl. pumped storage) Coal Natural Gas Oil Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass Geothermal Ocean

IEA’s Energy Technology Perspective Scenarios For Electricity Installed Capacity

Source: IEA ETP 2016

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Technology Studied

Wind

Onshore Offshore

Solar

Photovoltaics – crystalline silicon Photovoltaics – CdTe Photovoltaics – CIGS PV – amorphous silicon CSP

Energy Storage (split between li- ion, lead-acid,

  • ther)

Automotive Grid-scale Decentralise 7

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Example: Change in metal demand from Solar PV

(as percentage change from 6 degree scenario)

Source: WB Analysis Note: Values are derived from mean value of ‘metal per MW’ demand

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Example: Change in metal demand from Energy Battery Storage

(as percentage change from 6 degree scenario)

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2. . Where will th these resources come fr from?

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Example: Mapping Critical metals: 1: Bauxite/ Aluminum

Mine Production Reserves AUSTRALIA 80,000 6,200,000 CHINA 60,000 830,000 MALAYSIA 21,200 40,000 INDIA 19,200 590,000 GUINEA 17,700 7,400,000 JAMAICA 10,700 2,000,000 GREECE 6,600 250,000 RUSSIA 6,600 200,000 KAZAKHSTAN 5,200 160,000 SURINAME 2,200 580,000 BRAZIL 2,000 2,600,000 GUYANA 1,700 850,000 VENEZUELA 1,500 320,000 VIETNAM 1,100 2,100,000 INDONESIA 1,000 1,000,000 USA N/A 20,000 OTHER COUNTRIES 8,500 2,400,000 TOTAL 274,000 28,000,000

Bauxite Production and Reserves for 2015 (Thousand Metric Tons) Developing Countries % of Bauxite Production represents 52%, without China, 30%. Developing Countries % of Bauxite Reserves represents 65%, without China 63%.

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Mapping Critical metals: 3: Lithium

Production Reserves AUSTRALIA 13,400 1,500,000 CHILE 11,700 7,500,000 ARGENTINA 3,800 2,000,000 CHINA 2,200 3,200,000 ZIMBABWE 900 23,000 PORTUGAL 300 60,000 BRAZIL 160 48,000 USA N/A N/A TOTAL ~ 32,500 ~ 14,000,000

Lithium Production and Reserves for 2015(Metric tons) Developing countries % of lithium production 52%, without China 45% Developing countries % of lithium reserves 91%, without China 68%

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3. . Addressing the carbon footprint of the industry

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Low-emission technologies: In Innovation and efficiency

  • New modes of extraction practices
  • Energy and water efficiency
  • Methane emission reduction opportunities
  • Use of smart data
  • Carbon Capture and Storage
  • Mostly Industry-led: role for governments?

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In Integrated Landsc scape Management and pla lannin ing - in inclu ludin ing in infr frastructure

  • 20% of all GHG emissions come from

Deforestation

  • Grades diminish, deforestation increases
  • Footprint of associated Infrastructure
  • Spatial Planning/ resource Corridors

Challenge: Requires a leading role from government and intergovernmental coordination

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  • 4. Conclusions: Towards a ‘Climate

Smart’ Mineral and Metals Industry?

  • Meeting the Paris climate target will require a radical

restructuring of energy supply and transmission systems globally;

  • The clean energy shift will be significantly MORE

material intensive

  • This will probably open up new mining frontiers with

new opportunities and risks

  • Technology choices matter: Need for a flexible

approach

  • Footprint implications of the materiality of clean

energy need to be factored into climate change and mineral development strategies of countries and companies

Need for a multi stakeholder approach: Governments, industry, Mining and Metals Community, Climate Change/ Sustainable Development Community

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Thank you! Khund@worldbank.org

full report: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/minerals-and-metals-to-play- significant-role-in-a-low-carbon-future