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Speculations about the effects of the crisis
- n the dynamics of Mexican migration
Predicted massive migrant return Growth rate of the immigrant population
flow from Mexico has declined
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Migration and Development: Comparing Mexico-US and Turkey-Europe UC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Migration and Development: Comparing Mexico-US and Turkey-Europe UC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Migration and Development: Comparing Mexico-US and Turkey-Europe UC Davis Friday, May 6, 2011 Speculations about the effects of the crisis on the dynamics of Mexican migration Predicted massive migrant return Growth rate of the
SLIDE 2
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During the last three decades, there has
been increased pressure on the Mexican labor Market.
- growing numbers of youngsters
- women entering the labor market
- displaced workers
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SLIDE 4
On average from 1994 to 2009 the Mexican economy grew 2.3 percent.
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Mexican population 15-64 In 1994 =53.1 million In 2010 =71.5 million (34.7% increase) In 1980 32% of the population in 15-64 In 2000 61% In 2010 64%
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2
Male Female
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Mexico’s labor legislation has not experienced change since
the 1970’s
High labor cost in private and public sector Regime of informality in Medium and small businesses in
- rder to have flexibility but leaves workers with low levels
- f job security.
A dual labor market has emerged from this situation
generating negative outcomes in terms of:
- productivity,
- competitiveness
- and social security
A labor reform promoting flexibility in formal employment is being discussed in Congress.
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5 10 15 20 25 30 II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II IV II 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Rates
Informal Sector Unemployment Source: ENOE (National Occupation and Employment Survey)
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Millions
Permanent Temporary Source: Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social
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13 107 137 80 31 50 106 93 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Thousand persons New Arrivals Emigration Source: Passel and D'Cohn, based on CPS
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2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Million persons
Source: Passel and D'Cohn, 2009 (Based on CPS)
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1633 1111 285 351
2000 2010
Emigrants Return migrants
Source: CONAPO estimates based on Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). Population and Housing Census (10% samples), 2000 y 2010.
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Below 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and more % Male Female
Source: Lowell and Pederzini,, 2011
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10 20 30 40 50 60
Below Primary Primary Middle School High School Post High B.A. Master's Ph.D.
Male Female
Source: Lowell and Pederzini, 2011
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0 ¡ 10 ¡ 20 ¡ 30 ¡ 40 ¡ 50 ¡ 60 ¡ 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60
Male Female
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Source: Lowell and Pederzini, 2011
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