Michael Kumhof, International Monetary Fund Douglas Laxton, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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20 00 09 9

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF)

Michael Kumhof, International Monetary Fund Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund

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U.S. Government Savings Ratio

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U.S. Current Account Deficit Ratio

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U.S. Net Foreign Liabilities Ratio

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SLIDE 52

Net Worth Shock C - Capital Destruction Capital in Home

T __ and N - -

• 1.0
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0.0 0.5

• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Physical Return to Capital

(Difference)

• 0.2
• 0.1

0.0 0.1 0.2

• 0.2
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0.0 0.1 0.2 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Capital Utilization

(% Difference)

• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0

• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Financial Return to Capital (ex ante)

(Difference)

• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5

• 1.5
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• 0.5

0.0 0.5 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Price of K (q) and of I

(% Difference)

• 4
• 2

2

• 4
• 2

2 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Investment

(% Difference)

• 3
• 2
• 1

1

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Corporate Physical Assets

(% Difference)

• 4
• 2

2

• 4
• 2

2 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Corporate Net Worth

(% Difference)

• 3
• 2
• 1

1

• 3
• 2
• 1

1 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Corporate Debt

(% Difference)

• 0.1

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

• 0.1

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Corporate Insolvencies (ex ante)

(Difference, in % of all Firms)

• 1

1 2 3

• 1

1 2 3 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Corporate Leverage

(Difference)

• 0.2

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

• 0.2

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Equity Premium (ex ante)

(Difference)

• 0.1

0.0 0.1 0.2

• 0.1

0.0 0.1 0.2 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

External Finance Premium (ex ante)

(Difference)

SLIDE 53

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SLIDE 57

Oil Demand Shock HO Survey

• 0.4
• 0.2

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

• 0.4
• 0.2

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO GDP Chain-Weighted __ and Current - -

• 0.10
• 0.08
• 0.06
• 0.04
• 0.02

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• 0.06
• 0.04
• 0.02

0.00 0.02 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

RW GDP

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO Consumption

• 0.04
• 0.03
• 0.02
• 0.01

0.00 0.01

• 0.04
• 0.03
• 0.02
• 0.01

0.00 0.01 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO Nominal Policy Rate

• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5

• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO Investment

• 0.02
• 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.02

• 0.02
• 0.01

0.00 0.01 0.02 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO Inflation

• 0.1

0.1

• 0.1

0.1 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO Government Spending

• 0.020
• 0.015
• 0.010
• 0.005

0.000 0.005

• 0.020
• 0.015
• 0.010
• 0.005

0.000 0.005 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO Real Interest Rate

• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0

• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO Real Exports ___, Imports - - and Oil Exports ..

• 0.4
• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

0.0 0.1

• 0.4
• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

0.0 0.1 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38

HO Real Exchange Rate (+ = Depreciation)

SLIDE 58

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