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Slides at: https://... @dakotasmurray Measuring disagreement in science Dakota Murray, Wout Lamers, Kevin Boyack, Vincent Larivire, Cassidy R. Sugimoto, Nees Jan van Eck, Ludo Waltman SciTech Strategies Disagreement in science


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Measuring disagreement in science

Dakota Murray, Wout Lamers, Kevin Boyack, Vincent Larivière, Cassidy R. Sugimoto, Nees Jan van Eck, Ludo Waltman

SciTech Strategies

Slides at: https://... @dakotasmurray

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Disagreement in science

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Disagreement in science

  • Dialectic debate in early history
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Disagreement in science

  • Dialectic debate in early history
  • Consensus in Comte's hierarchy of

sciences

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SLIDE 5

Disagreement in science

  • Dialectic debate in early history
  • Consensus in Comte's hierarchy of

sciences

  • Popper’s falsification,
  • Kuhn’s anomalies
  • Latour’s controversies
  • more
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SLIDE 6

Disagreement is integral to science.

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SLIDE 7

Disagreement is integral to science...but where and when does it happen?

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SLIDE 8

Past work?

Disagreement

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SLIDE 9

Past work?

“uncertainty”

Chen, C., Song, M., & Heo, G. E. (2018). A scalable and adaptive method for finding semantically equivalent cue words

  • f uncertainty. JOI

Disagreement

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SLIDE 10

Past work?

“uncertainty”

Chen, C., Song, M., & Heo, G. E. (2018). A scalable and adaptive method for finding semantically equivalent cue words

  • f uncertainty. JOI

“Negative citations”

Catalini, C., Lacetera, N., & Oettl, A. (2015). The incidence and role of negative citations in science. PNAS

Disagreement

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SLIDE 11

Past work?

“uncertainty”

Chen, C., Song, M., & Heo, G. E. (2018). A scalable and adaptive method for finding semantically equivalent cue words

  • f uncertainty. JOI

“Negative citations”

Catalini, C., Lacetera, N., & Oettl, A. (2015). The incidence and role of negative citations in science. PNAS

But no holistic analysis of disagreement...

Disagreement

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Goal:

Develop a methodological framework to quantify the degree of disagreement (controversy, disconsensus, and dissonance...) in scientific literature

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Operationalizing disagreement

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Our focus is explicit, interpersonal disagreement

Author of cited paper Some cited paper Cites and explicitly disagrees with

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General disagreement: direct contradiction

“In contrast to past results [1], we find that coffee causes cancer”

Author of citing paper

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General disagreement: different model assumptions

“The model used by Kim et al [2] predicts coffee drinker’s life expectancy to be 80 years, whereas our model predicts 85 years

Author of citing paper

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SLIDE 17

Disagreement in the literature

X = y X != y X ~ y X = 2y

“There is disagreement in past studies over whether coffee does or does not causes cancer [3-10]”

Author of citing paper

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Approach

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Data

  • Our interest is interpersonal

disagreement, and so we focus on in-text citations

  • Over 3 million full text articles from

english articles published in ScienceDirect between 1998 to 2015

  • Citances extracted

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit [1] Donec vel fermentum ligula [2-4] Nam sit amet lorem sit amet libero pharetra tristique quis non orc [5-9]

... ... ... ... ... ...

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How can we precisely and reliably identify a citation sentence as disagreement?

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A long, iterative process of identifying, validating, and refining queries

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  • --- Signal terms ----

Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

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  • --- Signal terms ----

“...recruiting participants was challenging...”

query retrieve sentences

Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

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SLIDE 24
  • --- Signal terms ----

“...recruiting participants was challenging...” X Invalid

query retrieve sentences

Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

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SLIDE 25

_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----
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_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----

studies; previous works; earlier works; literature, analyses; reports

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_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----

“...recruiting participants was challenging...”

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SLIDE 28

_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----

“...recruiting participants was challenging...” “However, recent studies have disagreed with this approach”

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_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----

“However, recent studies have disagreed with this approach” “This theory have since been disproven” “...recruiting participants was challenging...”

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_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----

“However, recent studies have disagreed with this approach” “This theory have since been disproven” “...recruiting participants was challenging...” “These ideas were influenced by Popper’s Conjectures and Refutations”

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_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge* Conflict* Contradict* Contrary Contrast* Contravers* Debat* Differ* Disagree* Disprov* No consensus Questionable* Refut*

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----

“However, recent studies have disagreed with this approach”

✓ Valid

“This theory have since been disproven” ✓ Valid “These ideas were influenced by Popper’s Conjectures and Refutations” X Invalid “...recruiting participants was challenging...” X Invalid

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_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge*

? ? ? ? ?

Conflict*

? ? ? ? ?

Contradict*

? ? ? ? ?

Contrary

? ? ? ? ?

Contrast*

? ? ? ? ?

Contravers*

? ? ? ? ?

Debat*

? ? ? ? ?

Differ*

? ? ? ? ?

Disagree*

? ? ? ? ?

Disprov*

? ? ? ? ?

No consensus

? ? ? ? ?

Questionable*

? ? ? ? ?

Refut*

? ? ? ? ?

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----

Which queries are the most valid?

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_standalone_ +studies +ideas +methods +results Challenge*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Conflict*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Contradict*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Contrary

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Contrast*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Contravers*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Debat*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Differ*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Disagree*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Disprov*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

No consensus

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Questionable*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

Refut*

50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances 50 citances

  • --- Signal terms ----
  • --- Filter terms ----

Which queries are the most valid? For each combination, query a random sample

  • f 50 citances

Two coders manually identify each citance as

✓ Valid or X Invalid

Calculate % agreement and % validity

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% agreement

Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: X Invalid

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% agreement

Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: X Invalid

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% agreement

Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: X Invalid

Overall, 85% agreement This demonstrates that our coding system was robust

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SLIDE 37

% agreement

Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: X Invalid

Overall, 85% agreement This demonstrates that our coding system was robust

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SLIDE 38

% Validity

Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: X Invalid

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% Validity

Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: X Invalid

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% Validity

Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: X Invalid

Lots of heterogeneity

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% Validity

Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: X Invalid

Lots of heterogeneity

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Both

Ordered by Validity

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Both

  • % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely

Ordered by Validity

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Both

  • % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely
  • We don’t want obviously bad queries

Ordered by Validity

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Both

  • % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely
  • We don’t want obviously bad queries
  • Set a validity threshold—80%

Ordered by Validity

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Both

  • % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely
  • We don’t want obviously bad queries
  • Set a validity threshold—80%
  • 23 queries accounting for ~450,000 citation

sentences.

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Both

Disagreement

  • % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely
  • We don’t want obviously bad queries
  • Set a validity threshold—80%
  • 23 queries accounting for ~450,000 citation
  • sentences. Non-exhaustive, but precise!
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Both

  • % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely
  • We don’t want obviously bad queries
  • Set a validity threshold—80%
  • 23 queries accounting for ~450,000 citation
  • sentences. Non-exhaustive, but precise!

Disagreement

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Assess disagreement based on...

  • Discipline
  • Over time
  • Age of cited paper
  • Self Citation

Disagreement

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Measuring disagreement by discipline

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Disagreement by field

Auguste Comte’s Hierarchy of sciences

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Disagreement by field

Auguste Comte’s Hierarchy of sciences

More complex, Less consensus Less complex More consensus

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Disagreement by field

Auguste Comte’s Hierarchy of sciences

More complex, Less consensus Less complex More consensus

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Disagreement by field

Auguste Comte’s Hierarchy of sciences

More complex, Less consensus Less complex More consensus

Too coarse-grained?

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Digging deeper

Meso-level fields (clusters of papers)

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Digging deeper

Meso-level fields (clusters of papers) Area maps to total citation sentences Distance reflects relatedness

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Digging deeper

Meso-level fields (clusters of papers) Area maps to total citation sentences Distance reflects relatedness Color indicates ratio of % disagreement to the average

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Digging deeper

Meso-level fields (clusters of papers) Area maps to total citation sentences Distance reflects relatedness Color indicates ratio of % disagreement to the average “Horseshoe” shape moves from social sciences to Mathematics and computer science Soc & Hum Bio & Health Life & Earth Phys & Engr Math & Comp

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Hierarchy repeated

Soc & Hum Bio & Health Life & Earth Phys & Engr Math & Comp

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Hierarchy repeated...

Soc & Hum Bio & Health Life & Earth Phys & Engr Math & Comp

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Hierarchy repeated...with heterogeneity

Soc & Hum Bio & Health Life & Earth Phys & Engr Math & Comp

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Biomedical and Health Sciences

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp

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Biomedical and Health Sciences

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp

“Health Affairs” “Health Policy” “Pharmacoeconomics”

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Similar in Mathematics and Computer Science

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp

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Similar in Mathematics and Computer Science

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp

“Transportation Research Records” “Accident Analysis and Prevention”

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Similar in Life & Earth Science

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp

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Similar in Life & Earth Science

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp

“Ecological Economics” “Land Use Policy” “Ecological Indicators”

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Similar in Life & Earth Science

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp

“Ecological Economics” “Land Use Policy” “Ecological Indicators”

More “social” fields often have more disagreement

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Similar in Life & Earth Science...but also new patterns

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp More “social” fields often have more disagreement

“Journal of Volcanology” “Earth and Planetary Science Letters” “Journal of vertebrate paleontology” “Cretaceous Research” “Sedimentary Research”

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Similar in Life & Earth Science...but also new patterns

Soc & Hum Bio & Health

Life & Earth

Phys & Engr Math & Comp

“Journal of vertebrate paleontology” “Cretaceous Research” “Sedimentary Research” “Journal of Volcanology” “Earth and Planetary Science Letters”

Fields that can’t experiment have more disagreement More “social” fields often have more disagreement

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Takeaways

  • Re-confirm the hierarchy of sciences using disagreement

○ Additional evidence that our approach is robust ○ Supports bast bibliometric studies of the hierarchy (Fanelli & Glänzel, 2013)

  • Identify heterogeneity

○ Based on epistemic characteristics of the fields

Fanelli, D., & Glänzel, W. (2013). Bibliometric Evidence for a Hierarchy of the Sciences. PLoS ONE, 8(6), e66938. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0066938

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Measuring disagreement

  • ver time
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Disagreement over time

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Disagreement over time

  • Mostly stable, slight

decrease

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Disagreement over time

  • Mostly stable, slight

decrease

  • Mostly driven by a few fields
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Disagreement over time

  • Mostly stable, slight

decrease

  • Mostly driven by a few fields
  • Takeaways

○ Is this real? ○ Are these changes significant?

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Measuring disagreement by age of cited paper

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Disagreement and age

Relative age of cited paper (years)

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Disagreement and age

  • After a bump, older papers

are disagreed with less

Relative age of cited paper (years)

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Disagreement and age

  • After a bump, older papers

are disagreed with less

  • Field differences

Relative age of cited paper (years)

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Disagreement and age

  • After a bump, older papers

are disagreed with less

  • Field differences
  • Takeaways

○ Disagreement relates to age ○ Selection effect? Relative age of cited paper (years)

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Measuring disagreement… by self citation

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Disagreement and Self-citation

  • People should disagree with

themselves less

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Disagreement and Self-citation

  • People should disagree with

themselves less

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Disagreement and Self-citation

  • People should disagree with

themselves less

  • Similar across fields

Presence of author overlap

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Disagreement and Self-citation

  • People should disagree with

themselves less

  • Similar across fields
  • Takeaways

○ Confirms expectations ○ Perfunctory citations? Presence of author overlap

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So far, our measure has revealed insights based on...

  • Discipline
  • Time
  • Age of cited paper
  • Self citation

Disagreement

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So far, our measure has revealed insights based on...

  • Discipline
  • Time
  • Age of cited paper
  • Self citation
  • And the process of keyword-based

studies itself

Disagreement

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Our approach is transparent

  • We can open the black box and see

exactly where issues occur ○ In contrast to common Machine Learning techniques

  • Contextualizes our analysis
  • Informs future keyword-based studies
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When a signal is a proper noun

“...the conflict monitoring theory [6] provides a slightly different way to account for conflict effects.”

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When a signal is an object of study

“Caselli and Coleman study conflicts based on ethnicity....”

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When a signal is just in reference to the wrong thing

“...consumers are usually self-motivated and enthusiastic in exchanging, sharing and debating ideas... (Anderson & Weitz, 1992).”

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When it’s somebody’s name

“Measurement items for perceived risks were also developed from Debatin et al.’s (2009) study.”

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Isolated, or systematic?

  • Overall, we capture disagreement,

○ Heterogeneity by field

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Isolated, or systematic?

  • Overall, we capture disagreement,

○ Heterogeneity by field

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Isolated, or systematic?

  • Overall, we capture disagreement,

○ Heterogeneity by field

Each line corresponds to a meso-field Color matches ratio to average across all fields

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Isolated, or systematic?

  • Overall, we capture disagreement,

○ Heterogeneity by field

  • Debat* overrepresented in Soc & Hum
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Isolated, or systematic?

  • Overall, we capture disagreement,

○ Heterogeneity by field

  • Debat* overrepresented in Soc & Hum
  • No consensus in Bio & Health
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Isolated, or systematic?

  • Overall, we capture disagreement,

○ Heterogeneity by field

  • Debat* overrepresented in Soc & Hum
  • No consensus in Bio & Health
  • Disagree* in Phys & Engr, Life & Earth
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Isolated, or systematic?

  • Overall, we capture disagreement,

○ Heterogeneity by field

  • Debat* overrepresented in Soc & Hum
  • No consensus in Bio & Health
  • Disagree* in Phys & Engr, Life & Earth
  • Are these driven by artefacts?
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Our approach has limitations, but...

  • They can be identified
  • Can be easily adjusted

○ Different validity threshold ○ Refine existing queries ○ Add new signal and filter terms

  • Future analyses of scientific text

will need to consider these artefacts

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In Summary

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In Summary

  • Developed a framework for identifying

instances of disagreement

Robust

Transparent

Adjustable

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SLIDE 104

In Summary

  • Developed a framework for identifying

instances of disagreement

Robust

Transparent

Adjustable

  • Confirmed a hierarchy of sciences

But with greater heterogeneity at the field level

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In Summary

  • Developed a framework for identifying

instances of disagreement

Robust

Transparent

Adjustable

  • Confirmed a hierarchy of sciences

But with greater heterogeneity at the field level

  • Observed minor temporal changes
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In Summary

  • Developed a framework for identifying

instances of disagreement

Robust

Transparent

Adjustable

  • Confirmed a hierarchy of sciences

But with greater heterogeneity at the field level

  • Observed minor temporal changes
  • Relative age matters
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In Summary

  • Developed a framework for identifying

instances of disagreement

Robust

Transparent

Adjustable

  • Confirmed a hierarchy of sciences

But with greater heterogeneity at the field level

  • Observed minor temporal changes
  • Relative age matters
  • Differences by self-citation
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In Summary

  • Developed a framework for identifying

instances of disagreement

Robust

Transparent

Adjustable

  • Confirmed a hierarchy of sciences

But with greater heterogeneity at the field level

  • Observed minor temporal changes
  • Relative age matters
  • Differences by self-citation
  • Disciplinary heterogeneity in word use requires

consideration in scientific text analysis

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Now that we have an indicator of disagreement

  • Answer questions about how disagreement

differs based on author characteristics

○ Gender ○ Race ○ National affiliation ○ Career stage

  • Incorporate into traditional scientometric

analysis

○ How does disagreement relate to citation impact? ○ Are novel or interdisciplinary papers more likely to be disagreed with? ○ Does team size relate to disagreement

Disagreement

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More soon!

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Thank you!

Dakota Murray Indiana University Bloomington dakmurra@iu.edu

Vincent Larivière Université de Montréal vincent.lariviere@umontreal.ca

Cassidy R. Sugimoto Indiana University Bloomington sugimoto@indiana.edu Nees Jan van Eck CWTS Leiden University ecknjpvan@cwts.leidenuniv.nl Ludo Waltman CWTS Leiden University waltmanlr@cwts.leidenuniv.nl Wout Lamers CWTS Leiden University w.s.lamers@cwts.leidenuniv.nl Kevin Boyack SciTech Strategies kboyack@mapofscience.com

@dakotasmurray dakotamurray.me Slides at:

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Supporting slides

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Signal term Variants Specific negations Results challenge* 405,613 contradict* 115,375 contrast* 1,257,866 contrary 171,711 conflict* 212,246 disagree* “not agree*”, “no agreement” “range”, “scale”, “kappa”, “likert”, “agree*” and/or “disagree” within a ten-word range of each other. 52,615 differ* “different*” 2,003,677 controvers* 154,608 disprov* “prove*” and “disprove*” within a ten-word range 2,938 refut* “refutab*” 10,322 debat* “parliament* debat*”, “congress* debat*”, “senate* debat*”, “polic* debat*”, “politic* debat*”, “public* debat*”, “societ* debat*” 150,617 no consensus “lack of consensus” “consensus sequence”, “consensus site” 16,632 questionable 24,244

Signal terms

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Filter terms

studies Studies; study; previous work; earlier work; literature; analysis; analyses; report; reports ideas idea*; theory; theories; assumption*; hypothesis; hypotheses methods model*, method*, approach*; technique* results result*; finding*; outcome*; evidence; data; conclusion*; observation*

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Representation

The expected (red line) vs. actual (dot) number of citances conflict* more common in Social Sciences disprov* more common in Maths disagree* more common in Physics & Engineering

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Representation

Same for filter terms +ideas over-represented in Social Sciences and Humanities +methods over-represented in Math & Comp Sci, also Physics and Engineering

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Representation

But there is huge heterogeneity controvers* over-represented in Bio & Health sciences, except with +ideas contradict* over-represented in Math & Comp Sci, except with +results and +studies

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Different temporal dynamics by query

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SLIDE 119

Text progression

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Reference meso-field map

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Self-citation and filter term

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Relative age and filter term

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Disagreement and gender

Based on gender of the author of the citing paper Not really any convincing evidence of an effect