MD Sustainable Growth Commission Casey Anderson, Chair, Montgomery - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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MD Sustainable Growth Commission Casey Anderson, Chair, Montgomery County Planning Board November 26, 2018 Average population growth rate by decade 12% 10.7% 10% 9.6% 8% Estimate Forecast 6% 5.3% 3.1% 4% 1.1% 2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%

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MD Sustainable Growth Commission

Casey Anderson, Chair, Montgomery County Planning Board November 26, 2018

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Source: 1940-2010 Decennial Census, U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington Council of Government Forecast Round 9.1, Research and Special Projects 9.6% 10.7% 5.3% 1.1% 3.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1940-1950 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

Average population growth rate by decade Estimate Forecast

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83,912 164,401 340,928 522,809 579,053 757,027 873,341 971,777 1,052,000 1,128,800 1,197,100

200,000

400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Total population Estimate Forecast

Source: 1940-2010 Decennial Census, U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington Council of Government Forecast Round 9.1, Research and Special Projects

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Source: 2017 Community and Transportation Preferences Survey, National Association of Realtors

50 % 48 % 49 % 40 % Sidewalks and places to take walks 49 % 43 % 35 % 33 % Being within an easy walk of other places and things in a community, such as shops and parks 37 % 35 % 31 % 30 % Having public transit nearby

2017 U.S. Living Preferences (% Noting as "Very Important")

Millennials (since 1981) Gen X (1965-1980) Baby Boomers (1945-1964) Silent/Greatest (1944-Earlier)

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1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD

Montgomery County Building Permits

Single-Family Multi-family

DECREASINGRATE OF NEW HOUSING

1994 1994-2007 A 2007 Aver verage: e: 4,311 311 2008 2008-2018 A 2018 Aver verage: e: 2,295 295

Source: Census Bureau

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Regional Building Permits

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Arlington County, VA District of Columbia Fairfax County, VA Frederick County, MD Howard County, MD Loudoun County, VA Montgomery County, MD Prince George's County, MD

Source: Census Bureau

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Source: CoStar

RESEARCH AND SPECIAL PROJECTS DIVISION

12.4% 11.3% 13.9% 18.3% 16.6% 14.3% 13.2%

Montgomery County District of Columbia Alexandria Arlington County Fairfax County Prince George's County Metro Washington

Overall Vacancy Rate OFFICE VACANCY RATES BY JURISDICTION, 2018 Q2

9,009,042 sq. ft. 17,823,274 sq. ft. 3,807,063 sq. ft. 7,797,942 sq. ft. 1,813,174 sq. ft. 3,995,115 sq. ft. 67,741,323 sq. ft.

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Wedges:

Agricultural and Rural Open

Space (more than 90,000 acres)

Transfer of Development Rights Program
Limited Infrastructure

Development Corridors:

I-270, Rt. 355, Rt. 97 (Georgia Ave), Rt. 29

Transit-Oriented Development Centers:

Friendship Heights
Bethesda
Silver Spring
Wheaton
White Flint

Montgomery County’s Plan for Growth: Wedges and Corridors

An Overview of Montgomery County Planning and Parks

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Area Constrained = 248,000 Acres 77%

Environmental Constraints - Composite

Hydrological:

Wetland Buffers
Streams

Erodible soils Parks & Biodiversity areas Agricultural Reserves Special Protection Areas Forest Conservation Easements

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Utility Sites

WSSC
Transmission Lines

Transportation Infrastructure

Metro
Rail
State Roads
Federal Highways

Government Ownership Rustic Roads Public Education Historic Preservation Exhausted TDR’s Rock Quarries Regulated Affordable Housing Private Institutional Common HOA Ownerships Single Family Dwellings

Man-Made Constraints - Composite

Area Constrained = 201,000 Acres 62%

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Man-made

Utility Sites

WSSC
Transmission Lines

Transportation Infrastructure

Metro
Rail
State Roads
Federal Highways

Government Ownership Rustic Roads Historic Preservation TDR Exhausted Rock Quarries Regulated Affordable Housing, Private Institutional HOA Common Ownership Single Family Dwellings

Environmental

Hydrological

Streams
Wetland Buffers

Erodible soils Parks & Biodiversity areas Agricultural Reserves Special Protection Areas Forest Conservation Easements

Environmental + Man-Made Constraints

Area Constrained = 263,000 Acres 81% Area NOT constrained = 61,000 Acres 19%

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Environmental & Man-Made Constraints + Qualifiers

Environmental

Hydrological

Streams
Wetland Buffers

Erodible soils Parks & Biodiversity areas Agricultural Reserves Special Protection Areas Forest Conservation Easements

Man-Made

Utility Sites

WSSC
Transmission Lines

Transportation Infrastructure

Metro
State Roads
Federal Highways

Government Ownership Rustic Roads & Public Education Historic Preservation TDR Exhausted Rockville Quarry Regulated Affordable Housing, Private Institutional HOA Common Ownership Single Family Dwellings

Area constrained = 276,000 Acres 85% Area NOT constrained = 48,000 Acres 15%

Qualifiers

Multiple owners
Improvement Value >2 times Land Value
Office Buildings less than 50 years old
Retail Buildings less than 15 years old

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BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT AFTER REDEVELOPMENT

Size: 8.78 Acres 77% Runoff Reduction Runoff Rates: Pre-construction runoff: 78,722.36 cu/ft Treatment Provided: 60,555.66 cu/ft Post-construction runoff: 18,166.70 cu/ft SWM Treatments:

Green roof
Bioretention
Silva cells

Infill redevelopment improves water quality -

Pike & Rose: before and after

Source: Montgomery County Planning Department; Department of Permitting Services

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and we’ve increased forest cover over the

last 60 years while adding 1 million residents.

Source: Montgomery County Planning Department