MD Sustainable Growth Commission Casey Anderson, Chair, Montgomery County Planning Board November 26, 2018
Average population growth rate by decade 12% 10.7% 10% 9.6% 8% Estimate Forecast 6% 5.3% 3.1% 4% 1.1% 2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% 1.5% 0% 1940-1950 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 Source: 1940-2010 Decennial Census, U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington 2 Council of Government Forecast Round 9.1, Research and Special Projects
Total population 1,400,000 1,197,100 1,128,800 Estimate Forecast 1,200,000 1,052,000 1,000,000 971,777 873,341 800,000 757,027 600,000 579,053 522,809 400,000 340,928 200,000 164,401 83,912 - 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source: 1940-2010 Decennial Census, U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington 3 Council of Government Forecast Round 9.1, Research and Special Projects
2017 U.S. Living Preferences (% Noting as "Very Important") 50 49 49 48 % % % % Millennials 43 (since 1981) % 40 % Gen X 37 35 35 (1965-1980) % 33 % % 31 % 30 % % Baby Boomers (1945-1964) Silent/Greatest (1944-Earlier) Being within an easy walk of other Having public transit nearby Sidewalks and places to take walks places and things in a community, such as shops and parks Source: 2017 Community and Transportation Preferences Survey , National Association of Realtors 4
DECREASINGRATE OF NEW HOUSING Montgomery County Building Permits 6,000 1994 1994-2007 A 2007 Aver verage: e: 4,311 311 2008 2008-2018 A 2018 Aver verage: e: 2,295 295 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Single-Family Multi-family Source: Census Bureau
Regional Building Permits 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Source: Census Bureau 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Arlington County, VA District of Columbia Fairfax County, VA Frederick County, MD Howard County, MD Loudoun County, VA Montgomery County, MD Prince George's County, MD
OFFICE VACANCY RATES BY JURISDICTION, 2018 Q2 7,797,942 sq. ft . 18.3% 1,813,174 sq. ft . 16.6% 3,995,115 sq. ft . 3,807,063 sq. ft . 67,741,323 sq. ft . 14.3% 9,009,042 sq. ft . 13.9% 13.2% 17,823,274 sq. ft . 12.4% Overall Vacancy Rate 11.3% Montgomery District of Alexandria Arlington County Fairfax County Prince George's Metro County Columbia County Washington Source : CoStar RESEARCH AND SPECIAL PROJECTS DIVISION
Montgomery County’s Plan for Growth: Wedges and Corridors Wedges: • Agricultural and Rural Open Space (more than 90,000 acres) • Transfer of Development Rights Program • Limited Infrastructure Development Corridors: • I-270, Rt. 355, Rt. 97 (Georgia Ave), Rt. 29 Transit-Oriented Development Centers: • Friendship Heights • Bethesda • Silver Spring • Wheaton • White Flint An Overview of Montgomery County Planning and Parks 8
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Environmental Constraints - Composite Hydrological: Wetland Buffers Streams Erodible soils Parks & Biodiversity areas Agricultural Reserves Special Protection Areas Forest Conservation Easements Area Constrained = 248,000 Acres 77%
Man-Made Constraints - Composite 11 Utility Sites WSSC Transmission Lines Transportation Infrastructure Metro Rail State Roads Federal Highways Government Ownership Rustic Roads Public Education Historic Preservation Exhausted TDR’s Rock Quarries Regulated Affordable Housing Private Institutional Common HOA Ownerships Single Family Dwellings Area Constrained = 201,000 Acres 62%
Environmental + Man-Made Constraints Environmental Hydrological Streams Wetland Buffers Erodible soils Parks & Biodiversity areas Agricultural Reserves Special Protection Areas Forest Conservation Easements Man-made Utility Sites WSSC Transmission Lines Transportation Infrastructure Metro Rail State Roads Federal Highways Government Ownership Rustic Roads Historic Preservation TDR Exhausted Rock Quarries Area Constrained = 263,000 Acres 81% Regulated Affordable Housing, Area NOT constrained = 61,000 Acres 19% Private Institutional HOA Common Ownership Single Family Dwellings
Environmental & Man-Made Constraints + Qualifiers Environmental Qualifiers Multiple owners Hydrological Improvement Value >2 times Land Value • Streams • Office Buildings less than 50 years old Wetland Buffers Erodible soils Retail Buildings less than 15 years old Parks & Biodiversity areas Agricultural Reserves Special Protection Areas Forest Conservation Easements Man-Made Utility Sites WSSC Transmission Lines Transportation Infrastructure Metro State Roads Federal Highways Government Ownership Rustic Roads & Public Education Historic Preservation TDR Exhausted Rockville Quarry Regulated Affordable Housing, Private Institutional Area constrained = 276,000 Acres 85% HOA Common Ownership Area NOT constrained = 48,000 Acres 15% Single Family Dwellings
Infill redevelopment improves water quality - Size: 8.78 Acres Pike & Rose: before and after 77% Runoff Reduction Runoff Rates: Pre-construction runoff: 78,722.36 cu/ft Treatment Provided: 60,555.66 cu/ft Post-construction runoff : 18,166.70 cu/ft BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT AFTER REDEVELOPMENT SWM Treatments: • Green roof • Bioretention • Silva cells 14 Source: Montgomery County Planning Department; Department of Permitting Services
- and we’ve increased forest cover over the last 60 years while adding 1 million residents. Source: Montgomery County Planning Department 15
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