Mark Laity Director Communications, S.H.A.P.E.* BRITISH LIBRARY LECTURE SERIES, 19 FEBRUARY 2018 *Speaking in a personal not official capacity 1
“Of course I am a hero. Every man is a hero of his own tale….so how could he see himself as the villain, or even as a minor character?” Jagiello in Patrick O’Brian’s, ‘The Surgeon’s Mate’ “No-one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.” Daniel Kahneman, Nobel prize winner & author of ‘Thinking Fast & Slow’
The easiest thing in the world is self-deceit, for every man believes what he wishes, though the reality is often different. Demosthenes, Greek philosopher & master of rhetoric . ...and today’s ‘Post-Fact’ version of Demosthenes! Truthiness: The quality of seeming to be true according to one's intuition, opinion, or perception without regard to logic, factual evidence, or the like. US comedian Stephen Colbert. 2005/6 word of the year. Dictionary.com
Stories & Narratives What a Story can do: Ø Share & interpret experiences in a common way Ø Create a common culture & teach ethics, values & norms Ø Evolve, develop & adapt over time Ø Create heroes & archetypes to emulate Ø Provide reassurance, stability and frame of reference Ø Reinforce identity – and stigmatise the ‘other’ Ø Educate in an entertaining and ‘sticky’ way What a Narrative (a series of stories) can add: Ø Provide an organising framework for future action Ø Lay out objectives & identify key players Ø Identify the end state for a society or individual
From fireside to PowerPoint Behavioural modernity: Ø Abstract thinking; planning; art & decoration; co-operation & organisation; social norms; cutting tools Ø 50 - 150,000 years Literacy: Ø Global: 3,000 years ago = 1%: 1820 = 12%: Ø UK: 1500 = 10/1% (m/f): 1700 = 40/25% (m/f) Ø PowerPoint: 1987
Perception becomes reality: Narrative Sustainable support for any institution or campaign is founded on both logic and instinct. NATO’s core narrative must resonate with its audiences, and its operations, missions and activities must be consistent with that narrative. The NATO narrative, of a democratic, multinational alliance uniting across borders to guard, with courage and competence, against threats to our homes , has not changed. ACO Directive 95-2 on StratCom Mark Laity 6
Perception becomes reality: Narrative Mark Laity 7
‘Tell me how this ends.’ Gen David Petraeus …but how did it start? Mark Laity 8
Narrative: “History is an unending dialogue between the present and the past.” (EH Carr) “Kiev is the mother of “Prince Vladimir... Russian cities. Ancient adopting Rus is our common Orthodoxy source and we cannot predetermined the live without each other.” overall basis of the culture, civilisation and human values that unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.” 9
Narrative: “History is an unending dialogue between the present and the past.” (EH Carr) “Prince Vladimir went down in history as a unifier and defender of Russian lands, and a far-sighted politician who created the foundations of a strong, unified, centralised state, which eventually united different peoples, languages, cultures and religions into one big family....Our duty today is to work together...to preserve the continuity of our thousand-year history as we move forward.” President Putin, November 2016
Narrative: “History is an unending dialogue between the present and the past.” (EH Carr) ü From ancient history to recent history Ø Kyiv = Nazis ü Tapping into the contemporary zeitgeist Ø Trust no-one
Perception becomes reality... Strategic Narrative Narrative ‘summary’: “ The ‘fascist junta’ in Kiev illegally toppled the government and are oppressing our Russian brothers in Ukraine who desperately needed and wanted our help.” Justifying Russian military ü Narrative aligned to strategy & mutually intervention: supportive Historical narrative ü Fascism/WW2/’Russkiy Mir’ ‘Tricks’ & techniques ü Mirroring, framing, priming Operationalising the ü High tempo & info ‘smokescreen’ to get Information Campaign: inside decision-making cycle and introduce uncertainty and delay Deceive, delay, confuse Strategic ‘summary’: “In order to pressure and destabilise the Kiev government, prevent its Westward orientation and secure our near abroad, we will use active and military measures to provoke protest and then regain Crimea and support a separatist enclave in E. Ukraine.” 12 Mark Laity
From Bond to Bourne … (& back to Bond)
“We are all trying to go from an old story to a new story.” Throughout history stories are how we make sense of the world and our place in it.
“We are all trying to go from an old story to a new story.” Throughout history stories are how we make sense of the world and our place in it. We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he today that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother I had the happiness to command a Band of Brothers Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few
“We are all trying to go from an old story to a new story.” Throughout history stories are how we make sense of the world and our place in it. We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he today that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother
Budget; Syria; ministerials; refugees; exercises EVENTS EVENTS Baltics Resolute Support Crisis in Aegean NATO’s Partners ISIS Adversaries Migration Ukraine NATO THE NARRATIVE “TREE” & CYCLE VALUES VALUES EXPERIENCE HISTORY CULTURE EDUCATION FAMILY SOCIETY 17
Perception becomes reality... Strategic Narrative Themes: ANSF TO THE FORE – PRESSURE THE INSURGENCY – TRANSITION – UNITY OF EFFORT Situation: Objectives: Execution: End State 18
Perception becomes reality... Strategic Narrative Ø This influence—including the pernicious influence of the insurgents—often takes the form of a “single narrative.” This is a simple, unifying, easily-expressed story or explanation that organizes people’s experience and provides a framework for understanding events …. To undercut their influence you must exploit an alternative narrative: or better yet, tap into an existing narrative that excludes the insurgents. David Kilcullen, ‘28 Articles’ Ø A narrative is an organizational scheme expressed in story form. Stories about a community’s history provide models of how actions and consequences are linked. Stories are often the basis for strategies and actions , as well as for interpreting others’ intentions. FM3-24, US Manual on Counterinsurgency 19
Perception becomes reality... Narrative & Rhetoric Ø Aristotle’s three elements of communication: Ø Logos = argument (rational persuasion) Ø Pathos = passion (emotional resonance) Ø Ethos = credibility (moral authority) Ø When asked to name the three key elements of rhetoric, Demostenes, acknowledged as the pre-eminent master of rhetoric, replied, “Delivery: Delivery: Delivery” Demosthenes Ø No philosophy, no analysis, no aphorism, as deep as they are, can be compared in intensity, in the fullness of meaning, with a story well told .” Hannah Arendt 20
A story and a narrative in a phrase… Ø Labour’s not working Ø Take Back Control Ø Ask not what your country can do for you... Ø Shining City on a Hill Ø Yes We Can Ø Make America Great Again
2012 Olympics – Super Saturday 'Not at all, mate, this is my country’: Mo Farah Don’t dream of winning train for it Mo Farah ü Black ü Immigrant ü Muslim ü Family man Jessica Ennis ü Mixed race ü Northern ü Female Greg Rutherford ü Traditional Brit (and ginger!) ü Southern new town ü Modest origins (as are all)
The Disunion Jack & ‘taking control’
Walter Scott v Mel Gibson & Braveheart - a narrative transformed? “What you discover is that where people have a strong sense of British identity, they are likely to vote no. Where they have a weak sense, it is more likely to be yes.” Professor John Curtice
It’s the passion, stupid …let us tell the nationalists this is not their flag, their country, their culture, their streets. This is everyone’s flag, everyone’s country, everyone's culture and everyone’s street. And let us tell the people of Scotland that we who vote No, love Scotland and love our country. Gordon Brown
The ‘outsider’ speaks truth to power
What is now the American dream? Clay Shirky: Internet technology guru P …last night P I want to say something to my liberal white friends: made me P Trump IS the voice of angry whites. despair. He wasn't on stage because he has We've unusual views. He was on stage because he has the usual ones, brought fact- loudly. checkers to a P So, believe this: Trump could win. culture war. P Meanwhile, California's high- margin vote for Clinton will be Time to get wasted, because the election serious. hinges on Ohio and Pennsylvania and Virginia. 22 Jul 2016
“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” (the 2 nd Amendment)
Making OUR narrative
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