Marc Hanewinkel Marc Hanewinkel Freiburg, Germany Freiburg, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Marc Hanewinkel Marc Hanewinkel Freiburg, Germany Freiburg, Germany Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Natural risks and long term forest management Marc Hanewinkel Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Natural risks and long term forest management 1. Introduction 2. Lessons learnt from „Lothar“ 3. „Lothar“ and the aftermath • insect calamities • carbon sequestration • timber industry 4. What comes next ? Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

26.12.1999 ‘Lothar‘ Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg Introduction

Introduction Recent large storm disturbances in Europe 1990 – „Vivien/Wiebke“ >100 million m 3 1999 – „Lothar/Martin“ >180 million m 3 2005 – „ Gudrun/Sweden“ > 75 million m 3 Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt Lessons learnt – a risk model (M.Schmidt, J.Bayer, G.Kändler) • Vulnerability of different tree species • Influence of tree height and height / diameter ratio (h/d) • Influence of exposure (TOPEX) • Influence of geographic position • Goal: Regionalization – mapping of potential risk • Database: National Forest Inventory in Germany (2002) B C 150 m A D 4 Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt Comparing tree height and species Spruce Fir Beech P (Storm damage) Fir Beech Spruce Fir Spruce Beech Tree height (m) Schmidt et al. (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Topex: topographic The Windthrow Research Group, University of British Columbia exposure ################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################ 0 -1*Topex-Index -200 -400 3450000 3455000 3460000 3465000 3470000 R echtswert Easting Seehöhe ü. NN [m] 800 Height a.s.l 600 400 200 3450000 3455000 3460000 3465000 3470000 R echtswert Easting Schmidt et al. (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt • Influence of tree height and geographic position (large-scale airflow - conditions) # MA 1.0 N 0 340 350 10 20 # 330 30 HD 320 40 310 50 300 60 0.8 290 70 280 80 KA W P (Storm damage) 270 90 0 O # P (Sturmschaden) 260 100 250 110 0.6 240 120 230 130 # 220 140 # S 210 150 200 160 190 170 180 S # 0.4 U # # 0.2 # FR # # 0.0 # RV # 0 10 20 30 40 50 # Tree height Baumhöhe [m] Schmidt et al. (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt Spatial autocorrelation Sturmschadenswahrscheinlichkeit Probability of storm damage Thin Plate Regression Spline 2-dimensional function to 5500000 assess spatial influence Bad Mergentheim g ( π i ) = X i β + f (north; east i ) + Z i b + ε i Karlsruhe Hochwert 5400000 Northing Stuttgart Oberkirch Ulm Freiburg 5300000 Ravensburg 3400000 3450000 3500000 3550000 3600000 Rechtswert Easting Schmidt et al. (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt Spatial autocorrelation Sturmschadenswahrscheinlichkeit Probability of storm damage Thin Plate Regression Spline 2-dimensional function to assess spatial influence Probability of storm damage g ( π i ) = X i β + f (north; east i ) + Z i b + ε i P (Sturmschaden) E a RW s g t n i HW n i h g t r o N Schmidt et al. (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt Regionalization – map of potential risk Northern Black Forest P (storm damage): 0 0 - . 1 0 . 1 - 0 2 . 0 . 2 - 0 3 . 0 . 3 - 0 4 . 0 . 4 - 0. 5 0 . 5 - 0 . 6 0. - 6 0 . 7 Schmidt et al. (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

• Regionalization of risk based on digital terrain model (DTM) and inventory data and original meteorological conditions Risk-classes " 0,000106 - 0,050000 " 0,050001 - 0,100000 " 0,100001 - 0,150000 " 0,150001 - 0,200000 " 0,200001 - 0,250000 " 0,250001 - 0,300000 " 0,300001 - 0,350000 " 0,350001 - 0,400000 " 0,400001 - 0,450000 " 0,450001 - 0,500000 " 0,500001 - 0,550000 " 0,550001 - 0,600000 Schmidt et al. (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

• Regionalization of risk based on digital terrain model (DTM) and inventory data and meteorological conditions type: centre of „Lothar“ - damage Risk classes " 0,000106 - 0,050000 " 0,050001 - 0,100000 " 0,100001 - 0,150000 " 0,150001 - 0,200000 " 0,200001 - 0,250000 " 0,250001 - 0,300000 " 0,300001 - 0,350000 " 0,350001 - 0,400000 " 0,400001 - 0,450000 " 0,450001 - 0,500000 " 0,500001 - 0,550000 " 0,550001 - 0,600000 Schmidt et al. (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt Forest management implications • Use large disturbances to build risk models (learn lessons !) • Use topex (northing/easting) to map and regionalize the risk (exposure, wind direction) • Reduce height ! Decrease h/d (e.g. reach diameters earlier !) • Choose adequate species Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Natural risks and long term forest management 1. Introduction 2. Lessons learnt from „Lothar“ 3. „Lothar“ and the aftermath • insect calamities • carbon sequestration • timber industry 4. What comes next ? Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

The aftermath Insect calamities • Bark beetle attacks in the follow-up of „Lothar“ Storm damage due to Bark beetles after „Lothar“ n F o K ä f e r b e f a l l a c h r s t b e z i r k e n „Lothar“ 2002 d G e s a m t w a l B a d e n - W ü r t t e m b e r g S t a n d 3 1 . 0 1 . 2 0 0 2 Wertheim T auberbischofsheim Walldürn Lauda- Buchen Königshofen Weinheim Bad Mergentheim K äferh o l z f m Eberbach 0 - 5 0 0 H eidelberg Adelsheim S Mosbach c h w 5 0 1 - 2 5 0 0 a rz Neckargmünd a c Schrozberg h 2 5 0 1 - 5 0 0 0 Schwetzingen Künzelsau 5 0 0 1 - 7 5 0 0 N euenstadt Schöntal Sinsheim 7 5 0 1 - 1 0 0 0 0 Philippsburg G undelsheim 1 0 0 0 1 - 1 5 0 0 1 C railsheim 1 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0 0 Vellberg 2 0 0 0 1 - 3 0 0 0 0 Bruchsal H ardt H eilbronn Bretten Löwenstein ü b e r 3 0 0 0 0 Eppingen Schwäbisch Hall Rosenberg H ospitalw ald Dinkelsbühl Maulbronn Murrhardt G aildorf Ellwangen Karlsruhe g ü r Backnang Abtsgmünd b n e Mühlacker u G schw end R astatt e Vaihingen N Welzheim Karlsbad Pforzheim Aalen Bopfingen R otenfels Bad Schorndorf Lorch Schwäbisch Gmünd H errenalb Stuttgart Bad Liebenzell Bad B ü h l Leonberg Wildbad O berkochen G ernsbach Esslingen B aden-BadenStadt H eidenheim G öppingen C alw Enzklösterle Steinheim Weil im Murgschifferschaft in Forbach Schönbuch F orbach H errenberg G eislingen Altensteig Nürtingen O b e r k i r c h Kirchheim G iengen K e h l i n R h e i n a u Klosterreichenbach N agold T übingen Pf alz- Bebenhausen Langenau grafenweiler Blaustein Baiersbronn R eutlingen B a Bad Urach O f e f n b u r g - G d Peterstal Rottenburg F reudenst adt riesbach G e n g e n b a c h H orb Bad Rippoldsau -Schapbach Blaubeuren Mössingen Münsingen Z e l l Alpirsbach Sulz Hechingen U lm Lichtenstein L a h r Wolf ach Burladingen H a u s a c h R osenfeld Ette n h e i m Z wiefalten Ehingen Schramberg O berndorf B G ammertingen Albstadt a li n E l z a c h g Kenzingen e n Biberach-Staat Riedlingen Emm e n d i n g e n R ottw eil Triberg W a l d k i r c h Biberach-Stadt W e Spaichingen h Breisach Villingen-Schwenningen i n Mengen O chsenhausen Stadt g Meßkirch F urtwangen Villingen- e BadSchussenried n reiburg-S t a d t Schwenningen Biberach F S t . M ä r g e n St aat Staat T uttlingen K i r c h z a r t e n T i tisee-N eustadt Donaueschingen Pfullendorf Immendingen BadWaldsee St aufen Leutkirch T o d t n a u Stockach S c h l u chsee Müllheim/Baden Engen S c h ö n a u Bonndorf S t . B l a s e i n R avensburg S c h w a r z w a l d Überlingen Kandern Stühlingen R adolfzell Wangen Scho p f h e i m T o d t m o o s W a l d shut-Tiengen T ettnang Lörrach B a d S ä c k i n g e n Jestetten ZSLF V S z Weigerstorfer (2006) Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute