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A warm-up quiz (1/2)
- Imagine you are the Chief Technology Officer
Managing Technological Innovation Vinay Dabholkar Sept 25, 2017 A - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Managing Technological Innovation Vinay Dabholkar Sept 25, 2017 A - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Managing Technological Innovation Vinay Dabholkar Sept 25, 2017 A warm-up quiz (1/2) Imagine you are the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of BEST Bus service organization. Which technology would you invest in today? Why? A warm-up
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
A warm-up quiz (2/2)
- Now, imagine you are the Technology Sec
- f your hostel.
- Which technology would you invest in today?
- Why?
SLIDE 4
Type of technology decisions
4 Core Decisions Should I invest? When? How much? How is it going?
SLIDE 5
Amazon, Flipkart, Google
Machine Learning Should I invest? When? How much? How is it going?
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Crompton-Greaves, Kirloskar Engines
Internet of Things Should I invest? When? How much? How is it going?
SLIDE 7
What happens when technology management decisions go wrong?
SLIDE 8
How many of you have owned a Nokia phone in your life?
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2002-2003 Nokia Launches
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Missing the smartphone bus?
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To use Android or not?
Nokia launches X series weeks before Microsoft buy-out
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Creative destruction: Example #2
- First patent for digital camera? 1975
- Several proposals in 1990s – rejected
- Bill Gates’ prophecy – “Kodak is toast”
- Filed for bankruptcy in 2012
- A new “kodak moment” Nov 2013
- Focus on printers – not films?
http://www.slideshare.net/Christiansandstrom/disruptive-innovation-and-the-bankruptcy-of- polaroid-presentation http://www.catalign.in/2009/03/kodak-is-toast-insights-from-bill-gates.html
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3 Core problems
1 How to build an idea pipeline? 2 How to improve idea velocity? 3 How to enhance batting average?
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Most established firms suffer from poor idea velocity
SLIDE 15
Let’s look at the iPhone story a little closely
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17
The making of the iPhone: Exercise
- 1. Where did the idea begin?
- 2. How was multi-touch de-risked?
- 3. Where all did luck play a role?
- 4. Which, if any, aspects of Steve’s approach
do you feel is worth trying out for you? Reading time: 5 min Group discussion: 10 min Individual reflection: 5 min
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3 aspects of Steve Jobs approach
- Taking a “big bet” position
- Focus
- Simplicity
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SLIDE 18
How old is “multi-touch”?
www.catalign.com 19
http://www.billbuxton.com/multitouchOverview.html
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S-curve and Bell-curve
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Geoffrey Moore’s Chasm
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Not crossed the chasm yet (Example-1)
“As big a deal as PC” – Steve Jobs (Dec 2001) “More important than Internet” – Doerr (‘01) 40K/month 6K (‘03) 50K till 2009
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Not crossed the chasm: Example-2
http://www.livemint.com/Companies/xdOJFP2FP3PCGsiCrta a8H/Is-the-end-of-the-road-near-for-Tata-Nano.html
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Two key questions
- Will this technology cross the chasm?
- When will it cross the chasm?
You can’t predict!
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Electric car: reaching mass market?
Tesla Reva E6 (BYD) (25K) (500/yr) (171K/yr)
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Gartner Hype curve (S-curve + Chasm)
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Hype curve against the chasm
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Gartner Hype curve - 2017
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Multi touch on hype cycle
www.catalign.com 31
http://www.billbuxton.com/multitouchOverview.html
SLIDE 31
When did Apple jump on multi-touch?
www.catalign.com 32
http://www.billbuxton.com/multitouchOverview.html
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An Indian example of “Creative Destruction”
SLIDE 33
Micromax!
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5908850 9.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text& utm_campaign=cppst
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Reasons?
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5908850 9.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text& utm_campaign=cppst
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Summary: “Science” of disruption
- “Disruptive forces” need to be tracked
- There is a chasm to be crossed
- You can’t predict if / when a technology will
cross the chasm
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