Managing Technological Innovation Vinay Dabholkar Sept 25, 2017
A warm-up quiz (1/2) • Imagine you are the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of BEST Bus service organization. – Which technology would you invest in today? – Why?
A warm-up quiz (2/2) • Now, imagine you are the Technology Sec of your hostel. - Which technology would you invest in today? - Why?
Type of technology decisions When? Should I invest? 4 Core Decisions How is it going? How much?
Amazon, Flipkart, Google When? Should I invest? Machine Learning How is it going? How much?
Crompton-Greaves, Kirloskar Engines When? Should I invest? Internet of Things How is it going? How much?
What happens when technology management decisions go wrong?
How many of you have owned a Nokia phone in your life?
2002-2003 Nokia Launches
Missing the smartphone bus?
To use Android or not? Nokia launches X series weeks before Microsoft buy-out
Creative destruction: Example #2 • First patent for digital camera? 1975 • Several proposals in 1990s – rejected • Bill Gates’ prophecy – “Kodak is toast” • Filed for bankruptcy in 2012 • A new “ kodak moment” Nov 2013 • Focus on printers – not films? http://www.catalign.in/2009/03/kodak-is-toast-insights-from-bill-gates.html http://www.slideshare.net/Christiansandstrom/disruptive-innovation-and-the-bankruptcy-of- polaroid-presentation
3 Core problems How to improve idea velocity? 2 1 How to build an idea pipeline? 3 How to enhance batting average?
Most established firms suffer from poor idea velocity
Let’s look at the iPhone story a little closely
The making of the iPhone: Exercise 1. Where did the idea begin? 2. How was multi-touch de-risked? 3. Where all did luck play a role? 4. Which, if any, aspects of Steve’s approach do you feel is worth trying out for you? Reading time: 5 min Individual reflection: 5 min Group discussion: 10 min 17
3 aspects of Steve Jobs approach • Taking a “big bet” position • Focus • Simplicity 18
How old is “multi - touch”? http://www.billbuxton.com/multitouchOverview.html www.catalign.com 19
S-curve and Bell-curve
Geoffrey Moore’s Chasm
Not crossed the chasm yet (Example-1) “As big a deal as PC” – Steve Jobs (Dec 2001) “More important than Internet” – Doerr (‘01) 40K/month 6K (‘03) 50K till 2009
Not crossed the chasm: Example-2 http://www.livemint.com/Companies/xdOJFP2FP3PCGsiCrta a8H/Is-the-end-of-the-road-near-for-Tata-Nano.html
Two key questions • Will this technology cross the chasm? • When will it cross the chasm? You can’t predict!
Electric car: reaching mass market? Tesla Reva E6 (BYD) (500/yr) (171K/yr) (25K)
Gartner Hype curve (S-curve + Chasm)
Hype curve against the chasm
Gartner Hype curve - 2017
Multi touch on hype cycle http://www.billbuxton.com/multitouchOverview.html www.catalign.com 31
When did Apple jump on multi-touch? http://www.billbuxton.com/multitouchOverview.html www.catalign.com 32
An Indian example of “Creative Destruction”
Micromax! http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5908850 9.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text& utm_campaign=cppst
Reasons? http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5908850 9.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text& utm_campaign=cppst
Summary: “Science” of disruption • “Disruptive forces” need to be tracked • There is a chasm to be crossed • You can’t predict if / when a technology will cross the chasm 36
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