Major General Paul Jaques Director General Logistics, Support and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Major General Paul Jaques

Director General Logistics, Support and Equipment

Army Headquarters

‘The application of scientific methods to assist executive decision- makers’ ‘The application of scientific method to aid decision making’ The Conduct of Operational Analysis Studies Guidelines by Chief Scientific Adviser 2003 ‘The application of scientific methods to assist executive decision makers’ NATO Code of Best practice for CJTF and Component Commanders ‘The discipline of applying advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions or more simply as “the science of better”’ UK Operational Research Society ‘An interdisciplinary science which assists better decision making through identification and comparison of change options designed to improve problematic situations’ NATO Guide for Judgement-based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making 2011

Operational Analysis

The discipline of applying analytical methods to help make better decisions

Operational Analysis

“I divide my officers into four groups. There are clever, diligent, stupid and lazy officers. Usually two characteristics are combined. Some are clever and diligent – their place is the General Staff. The next lot are stupid and lazy – they make up 90% of every army and are suited to routine duties. Anyone who is both clever and lazy is qualified for the highest leadership duties, because he possesses the intellectual clarity and composure necessary for difficult decisions. One must be aware of anyone who is stupid and diligent – he must not be entrusted with any responsibility because he will cause only mischief.”

General Baron Kurt von Hammerstein-Equort Chief of German Army Command, 1930-33

Complex v Complicated

Complex v Complicated

Warrior CSP HUSKY UOR

Context

A specific threat Do you know the requirement? Data quality Cost understanding Political Regulation

?

Define:

• The question
• Measurement of Effectiveness
• The scenario
• Comparators
• Assumptions

A400M

A400M C-130J C-17

AKROTIRI MINHAD / JEBEL ALI KARACHI KANDAHAR KABUL HAIRATAN RIGA MOSCOW MARCHWOOD KAZAKSTAN UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN CHINA INDIA IRAN AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN RUSSIA SAUDI ARABIA IRAQ TURKEY OMAN YEMEN LIBYA EGYPT BASTION ULYANOSK MUSANAH ADANA RAF BRIZE NORTON

Strategic Lines of Communication

SDSR

A400M C-130J C-17

MARS Tanker

MARS Key User Requirements (KURS)

MARS

• Cargo: 19,000m3 issuable
• Class II fuel; RAS @ 12kts
• RAS through 3 exchange points concurrently
• Sustained Speed of 15kts
• Endurance 7,000nm @ 15kts
• Deliver core functions up to 38°C (sea temp)
• Survivability in the Maritime Battle Space
• Embark cargo (fuel) iaw OCIMF Regulations
• Logistical inter-operability with UK/US and NATO
• Exchange information iaw MoD CIS policy (SP600 series)
• Operate/maintain Medium Helicopter and host a CH47

Measures of Effectiveness

‘Probability of successfully deploying sufficient tankers to support a concurrency set’ ‘Percentage of campaign effects enabled within a scenario’

Indirect Fire: Points of Impact in Basra Operating Base

Indirect Fire: Firing Point Effectiveness

External HESCO protection Internal breeze-block protection Hardened concrete shelter C-RAM Counter-IDF system

Scenario 1 showing each solution, with error bars representing the 10% and 90% percent confidence values. Plot showing the effectiveness of each solution, with error bars representing the 10% and 90% percent confidence values

MAN Support Vehicle (SV)

Summary

• Know your client
• Are his requirements clear and measureable?
• Get senior stakeholder buy-in early
• Agree Measurements of Effectiveness and

scenarios up-front

• Contextualise the presentation of results
• Be contract aware
• Understand assumptions and model limitations

Questions