Main St To Wall St: What's Trending and How Will It Impact Hotels in 2018
Wall Street Perspective: Initial 3Q Review and 4Q17/2018 Outlook Vince Ciepiel, CFA
Important disclosures may be found in the appendix
Main St To Wall St: What's Trending and How Will It Impact Hotels in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Main St To Wall St: What's Trending and How Will It Impact Hotels in 2018 Wall Street Perspective: Initial 3Q Review and 4Q17/2018 Outlook Vince Ciepiel, CFA Important disclosures may be found in the appendix What We Will Cover Cleveland
Important disclosures may be found in the appendix
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3Q – Relative to your expectations, did portfolio RevPAR growth come in
October/4Q – relative to 60 days ago, how are you feeling on October/4Q RevPAR growth?
4Q – How do you expect the level of 4Q RevPAR growth to compare to what you saw in 3Q?
2017 & 2018 – Relative to 60 days ago, how are you feeling on 2017 & 2018 RevPAR growth?
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56% 78% 81% 17% 33% 41% 22% 25% 17% 13% 33% 39% 47% 38% 19% 6% 6% 50% 28% 12% 41% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
Quarterly Growth vs. Plan/Budget
% Slightly Worse % Inline % Slightly Better
Source: Cleveland Research,
37% 29% 34% 47% 42% 25% 16% 29% 41% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% July August Sept
Growth Tracking Relative to Plan/Budget in 3Q17
% Slightly Worse % Inline % Slightly Better
Source: Cleveland Research
Slightly better in 3Q vs. slightly worse in 2Q ~80% of respondents were in line or slightly better than expectations, 20% missed July weakest, August ok, September better (vs. budget) ~40% of respondent beat in September
17% 19% 25% 38% 38% 38% 46% 42% 38% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Oct Outlook 4Q Outlook 2017 Outlook
% Slightly Worse % Inline % Slightly Better
Source: Cleveland Research
Most feeling the same or better on October and 4Q RevPAR growth Group trends in October padding 1H on easy compares; hurricane supporting some lift
Feeling same or better about 2017 today vs. end of 2Q survey where revenue managers were feeling worse Most still expect to hit the midpoint of their 2017 budget (1-3%), but optimism faded after a worse 2Q than expected as some realism set in with tempered outlooks 2018 initial view points to 1-2.5% growth – hard to point to catalysts for an acceleration in growth
26% 72% 63% 6% 9% 46% 25% 68% 22% 31% 83% 82% 38% 38% 5% 6% 6% 11% 9% 15% 38% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 16 from 1Q 16 from 2Q 16 from 3Q 16 from 4Q 17 from 1Q 17 from 2Q 17 from 3Q
% Slightly Worse % Inline % Slightly Better
Source: Cleveland Research,
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Ticker Company 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 2014 2015 2016 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Loding Brand Co's HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc 6.6% 5.2% 5.8% 3.7% 2.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.9% 2.5% 0.5%
7.3% 5.4% 1.8% 1-2% 0-1% 1-3% 1-3% 1-3% 1-2% 1-2% MAR Marriott International, Inc. Class A 6.8% 5.3% 4.5% 3.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 0.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.6% 6.6% 5.0% 1.8% 0-2% 0.0% 0.5-2.5% 1-3% 1-2% H Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A 7.4% 5.6% 5.4% 3.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 4.8% 1.4% 0.5% 6.7% 5.5% 1.9% 0-2% 0-2% 1-3% IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Spons 5.9% 4.4% 4.8% 2.4% 1.5% 2.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.9%
0.4% 6.1% 4.4% 1.8%
Wyndham Worldwide Corporation 1.7% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0%
1.9% 2.9% 1.7% 2.8% 2.3% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
La Quinta Holdings, Inc. 8.2% 4.0% 2.1%
0.2% 0.8% 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% 2.0% 8.0% 3.5% 0.0%
Choice Hotels International, Inc. 9.6% 6.7% 5.8% 4.3% 1.2% 4.3% 4.5% 5.0% 3.8% 2.0% 1.8% 8.5% 3.7% 3.9% 2-3% 1-2% 3-4% 3-4% 2-3% Average 6.4% 4.4% 4.6% 2.6% 0.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.9% 1.3% 1.1% 6.7% 3.7% 1.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% Lodging REIT's Full Service: HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 3.8% 4.8% 2.8% 3.2% 3.6% 2.0% 3.8% 2.1% 3.8% 1.8%
5.7% 3.8% 2.5%
0-2% 1-1.75% LHO LaSalle Hotel Properties 5.4% 4.1%
0.9% 2.1% 1.7% 4.3% 2.5% 1.4%
8.8% 2.6% 2.5%
DiamondRock Hospitality Company 7.9% 6.0% 2.2% 3.1%
0.8% 0.8%
1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 11.6% 4.7%
1-2% RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. 4.0% 3.1%
9.1%
5.9% 8.9%
7.6%
7.5% 3.7% 2.9% 0-1% (3)-(1)% 0-3% 0-3% 1-3% PEB Pebblebrook Hotel Trust 3.6% 3.8% 4.0% 1.7% 8.0% 2.5%
0.0%
1.5% 3.3% 2.4% (3.5)-(1.5)% (4.5)-(2.5)%
(2)-(1)% (2)-(1)% CHSP Chesapeake Lodging Trust 9.5% 7.0% 7.2% 3.8% 10.1% 2.2%
9.5% 5.7% 2.3% (6.0)-(4.0)% (4.5)-(2.5)% (3.5)-(1.5)% (3.5)-(1.5)% (3.5)-(1.5)% SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. 7.0% 7.1% 3.9% 4.1% 1.5% 1.3% 2.2% 0.4% 5.5% 2.5% 2.0% 6.8% 5.9% 1.3% 0.75-2.75%
0.5-2.5% 0.5-3.5% 1.5-3.5% 1.5-3.5% 2.25-3.25% Average 6.5% 4.8% 2.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.3% 1.7% 0.3% 2.1%
7.4% 4.2% 2.0%
#DIV/0! 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% Select Service: HPT Hospitality Properties Trust 10.1% 10.7% 7.8% 6.2% 4.4% 4.9% 3.8% 0.6% 1.0%
10.2% 8.7% 3.6%
RLJ Lodging Trust 10.7% 5.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% 0.0%
7.2% 3.9% 1.1%
(2)-(1)% INN Summit Hotel Properties, Inc., 8.8% 7.6% 4.9% 5.7% 3.8% 6.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.2%
0.6% 10.9% 7.3% 3.3% (1)-0%
0-2% 0.5-2.5% 0.5-2.5%
(0.75)-(0.25)% Average 9.9% 7.8% 5.2% 4.8% 3.4% 4.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2%
0.6% 9.4% 6.6% 2.7%
2.0% 0.8% 0.8%
#DIV/0! Small Caps FCH FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated 13.1% 7.3% 7.0% 5.4% 4.7% 2.6%
8.9% 8.1% 0.9%
0.5-2.5% CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust 7.9% 6.4% 5.3% 4.7% 2.6% 0.6%
1.2%
1.0% 8.0% 5.6% 0.0%
0.3-0.8% Average 10.5% 6.9% 6.2% 5.1% 3.7% 1.6%
1.0% 8.4% 6.9% 0.5%
0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6%
Source: Company Filings
17 from 4Q
Lodging Brands and REITS RevPAR Guidance
Annual Growth 17 from 1Q 17 from 2Q 17 from 3Q Domestic Quarterly RevPAR Growth Quarterly Guide Annual Guide
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1.3%
1.0%
0% 2% 4% Brand Co's Full Service REIT's Select Service REIT's
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
Source: Company Filings
0.5% 0.9% 1.4%
2.8% 1.9% 2.0%
0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% HLT MAR H IHG WYN LQ CHH
Brand Co's Worldwide RevPAR Growth
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
Source: Company Filings
1.8%
2.0%
2.5%
2.1%
2.0%
1% 3% 5% 7% 9% HST LHO DRH RHP PEB CHSP SHO
Full Service Lodging REIT's RevPAR Growth
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17
Source: Company Filings
6.7% 8.3% 8.9% 3.7% 4.2% 6.8% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 2.0% 0.3%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Brand Co's Full Service REIT's Select Service REIT's
Hotel Co's Annual RevPAR Growth
2014 2015 2016 2017G
Source: Company Filings, Cleveland
1.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.8% 2.0% 0.3%
0% 1% 2% Brand Co's Full Service REIT's Select Service REIT's
Hotel Co's Annual RevPAR Guide
16 from 3Q 17 from 4Q 17 from 1Q 17 from 2Q
Source: Company Filings, Cleveland
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3Q down 60bps Q/Q to (0.1)% a miss vs. guidance; 4Q expected to step up 150-200bps Q/Q
nonresidential fixed investment forecasted to increase year over year. In the roughly 30% of our business where we have decent sightlines, we see 2018 Group position ahead of this year and we expect corporate negotiated rate increases between 2% and 3%.”
3Q down 200bps Q/Q to (3.6)%; no annual or quarterly guidance, but commentary points to 4Q pacing down 2%
PEB 3Q down 60bps Q/Q to (3.1%) vs. guide (4.5)-(2.5%),; guiding 4Q up 450bps Q/Q at mid guide (-0.5)-1.5%
result of the benefits in Houston and Texas following the hurricane. In fact, Houston’s robust growth following Hurricane Harvey added over 60 basis points to the industry’s 3.3% demand growth for September.
and has outperformed for the whole year so far.
Disclosures: I, Vince Ciepiel, certify that the views expressed in the research report(s) accurately reflect our personal views about the subject security(s). Further, we certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report(s). The analysts responsible for the preparation of this report have no ownership stake in this company. Cleveland Research Company provides no investment banking services of any type on this or any company. Proprietary research and Information contained herein which forms the basis for findings or opinions expressed by Cleveland Research Company may be used by Cleveland Research for other purposes in the course of compensated consulting and other services rendered to third parties. The information transmitted is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and delete the material from any compute. Member FINRA/SIPC. 22
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10.1% 7.2% 7.2% 6.4% 6.8% 6.9% 4.6% 3.2% 3.9% 1.8%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
H Americas Limited Serv. RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
6.5% 5.0% 5.1% 3.8% 1.8% 2.9% 1.5% 0.8% 2.5% 0.5%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
HLT U.S. RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
6.9% 5.4% 4.2% 4.0% 2.4% 3.2% 2.4% 1.1% 3.1% 0.9%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
MAR N. America RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
8.3% 7.3% 5.3% 5.4% 2.2% 3.4% 3.8% 1.9% 5.1% 1.6%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
H Americas Full Serv. RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
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6.2% 5.7% 4.9% 4.7% 7.4% 5.7% 5.2% 0.7% 4.9% 6.8%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
MAR Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
10.1% 9.4% 10.2% 6.7% 7.1% 3.6% 0.6% 1.5% 5.5% 6.9%
1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
HLT Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
5.8% 2.2% 3.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.4% 1.8% 3.6% 5.2% 7.2%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
H Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
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5.5% 4.6% 8.8% 5.0% 2.9% 1.3% (0.7%) 2.2% 8.4% 6.5%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
HLT Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
1.4% (0.2%) 6.2% (4.0%) (5.9%) (9.9%) (7.8%) (3.4%) 3.1% 5.1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
H EAME/SWA RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
7.0% 4.1% 9.3% 4.1% 2.7% 3.4% 0.7% 1.7% 7.0% 7.0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
MAR Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
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5.4% 2.5% 9.1% (8.8%) (4.7%) 8.1% (2.6%) (5.7%)(2.1%) 9.6%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
HLT Mid E./Afr RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
9.3% 0.8% 3.9% (6.4%) (2.3%) (5.9%) 4.5% (1.1%) (0.3%) 2.4%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
MAR Mid E./Afr RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings
1.4% (0.2%) 6.2% (4.0%) (5.9%) (9.9%) (7.8%) (3.4%) 3.1% 5.1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17
H EAME/SWA RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPAR
Source: Company Filings