Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/victoriabernal/8066930319/in/pool-ciclavia/ LOOKING FORWARD: EQUITY, PROSPERITY, & COMMUNITY IN A CHANGING (& DIVIDED) AMERICA MANUEL PASTOR MANUEL PASTOR 01-25-2018 @Prof_MPastor
Changing Demographics United States, 1980-2050 100% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 9% 8% 8% 13% 12% 16% 12% 19% 80% 22% 24% 12% 26% Other 12% Native American 12% 12% 60% Asian/Pacific Islander 13% 13% Latino Black 40% White 80% 76% 69% 64% 59% 55% 51% 47% 20% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Changing Demographics Georgia, 1980-2050 0% 1% 100% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% 1% 5% 3% 2% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 9% 10% 12% 27% 27% 14% 80% 15% 28% Other 30% 30% Native American 30% 29% 60% Asian/Pacific Islander 28% Latino Black 40% White 72% 70% 63% 56% 53% 50% 47% 44% 20% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Changing Demographics Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1980-2050 1% 100% 2% 2% 3% 1% 4% 5% 2% 6% 3% 5% 6% 7% 6% 9% 10% 10% 24% 12% 25% 13% 80% 15% 16% 28% Other 32% Native American 32% 60% 31% Asian/Pacific Islander 30% 28% Latino Black 40% White 74% 71% 60% 51% 47% 44% 42% 20% 40% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total Population Growth by Decade Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1980-2014 People of Color Non-Hispanic White 1,046,993 795,632 458,133 382,924 284,920 142,213 1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2010-2014
Population Growth Rates by Race/Ethnicity Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1980-2014 1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2010-2014 375% 360% 332% 325% 275% 225% 168% 175% 129% 125% 110% 106% 75% 57% 46% 38% 27% 18% 25% 6% -25% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander
Percent Foreign Born U.S., Georgia and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta Metro Area 15% Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 13% Georgia 13% United States 11% 10% 10% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 2% 3% 2% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010-2014
Change in Youth Population by Race/Ethnicity U.S. and Georgia, 2000-2014 White Black Latino API Other 150% 131% 125% 100% 92% 80% 75% 50% 39% 31% 31% 25% 13% 0% -2% -3% -10% -25% United States Georgia
Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white.
Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white.
Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white.
Median Age by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2014 United States Georgia 45 43 39 38 37 36 36 36 33 33 28 28 23 20 White All API Black Native American Latino Other or and Alaska Native mixed race
CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Income Distribution in the U.S., 1917-2015 25% 20% percent of income 15% 10% Top 1% (incomes above $443,000 in 2015) 5% Top 5-1% (incomes between $180,500 and $443,000) Top 10-5% (incomes between $124,800 and $180,500) 0% 1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Emmanuel Saez, Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Update : August 31, 2016).
CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full-Time Workers 25-64 ($2010) CA and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1980 to 2010-2014 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area United States 22% 17% 12% 6% 4% 10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile -7% -7% -9% -10% -11% Source: IPUMS
CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY SHARE OF WORKERS EARNING AT LEAST $15/HOUR BY RACE/ETHNICITY GEORGIA, 2015 All 62% White 70% Black 54% Latino 34% Asian/Pacific Islander 64% Native American 57% Mixed/ other 60%
Job Growth Rate U.S., Georgia and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1979-2014 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area Georgia 200% United States 140% 80% 20% -40%
Growth in Jobs and Earnings by Wage Level Georgia, 1990 to 2015 Low-wage Med-wage High-wage 140% 100% 65% 60% 46% 40% 29% 29% 20% 13% Jobs Earnings per worker -20%
Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity Georgia, 1990 to 2010-2014 1990 2010-2014 13% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 3% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander
Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta Metro Area, 1990 to 2010-2014 1990 2010-2014 13% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander
Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Georgia 1990 2010-2014 47% 40% 36% 27% 24% 19% 20% 19% 16% 13% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific All Islander
Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area 1990 2010-2014 46% 30% 29% 25% 20% 19% 19% 14% 11% 8% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific All Islander
PREPARING THE NEXT GENERATION? Kids of color concentrated in high-poverty schools (Atlanta metro area)
In-state U.S.-born, out-of-state U.S.-born, and immigrant populations by educational attainment United States, 2010-2014 25% 28% 36% 8% 6% 13% 8% 23% Bachelor's degree or higher 23% 22% Associate's degree Some college 33% High school grad 24% 31% Less than high school diploma 11% 9% U.S. Born, In-State U.S. Born, Out-of- Foreign Born "Home-Grown" State Note: Universe is population ages 25+.
In-state U.S.-born, out-of-state U.S.-born, and immigrant populations by educational attainment Georgia, 2010-2014 19% 29% 38% 6% 6% 21% 8% 13% Bachelor's degree or higher 24% 22% Associate's degree 36% Some college High school grad 23% 29% Less than high school diploma 18% 8% U.S. Born, In-State U.S. Born, Out-of- Foreign Born "Home-Grown" State Note: Universe is population ages 25+.
In-state U.S.-born, out-of-state U.S.-born, and immigrant populations by educational attainment Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 2010-2014 25% 33% 44% 6% 6% 22% 13% 8% Bachelor's degree or higher Associate's degree 22% 23% Some college 32% High school grad 19% Less than high school diploma 26% 14% 5% U.S. Born, In-State U.S. Born, Out-of- Foreign Born "Home-Grown" State Note: Universe is population ages 25+.
In-state U.S.-born, out-of-state U.S.-born, and immigrant populations by educational attainment City of Atlanta, 2010-2014 30% 56% 4% 65% 20% Bachelor's degree or higher 4% Associate's degree 12% 5% 29% Some college 15% High school grad 13% Less than high school diploma 10% 17% 15% 5% U.S. Born, In-State U.S. Born, Out-of- Foreign Born "Home-Grown" State Note: Universe is population ages 25+.
THINKING NEW: EQUITY AND GROWTH Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency. But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth — for everyone. Source: http://storage.cloversites.com/northriverside baptistchurch/site_images/sub_page70_picture0.jpg
EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH An early push in this direction: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth. Image Sources: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/2/24/1235500211963/Ben-Bernanke-chairman-of--003.jpg; http://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Fed-logo_trans.png; http://www.benjamindrickey.com/gallery/gallery_federal_reserve.jpg
EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH We have developed these ideas further in . . . Using model from IMF, we look at what predicts length of employment growth for 200 metros, 1980-2010 – inequality & social distance are key dragging factors on sustained growth.
EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH We have developed these ideas further in . . . We also did 11 case studies and found that: • Knowing together creates a higher possibility of growing together. • Conflict is an important part – and not antithetical – to collaboration.
EQUITY GAINS FOR GEORGIA ECONOMIC GAINS TO STATE ECONOMY IN FULL-EMPLOYMENT-FOR-ALL MODEL: GEORGIA, 2016 $510 $507.0 more workers would be 384,366 $505 employed GDP ($billions) $500 fewer residents would be 114,459 living in poverty $495.5 $495 more in tax revenue to $2.4 billion strengthen the social safety net $490 $0 $485 Actual Projected
EQUITY GAINS FOR GEORGIA ECONOMIC GAINS TO STATE ECONOMY IF RACIAL INCOME DIFFERENTIALS ALSO ERASED: GEORGIA, 2014
THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE
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