LOOKING FORWARD: EQUITY, PROSPERITY, & COMMUNITY IN A CHANGING - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

01-25-2018

MANUEL PASTOR

LOOKING FORWARD:

EQUITY, PROSPERITY, & COMMUNITY IN A CHANGING (& DIVIDED) AMERICA

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MANUEL PASTOR

@Prof_MPastor

80% 76% 69% 64% 59% 55% 51% 47% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 6% 9% 13% 16% 19% 22% 24% 26% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8%

2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Changing Demographics United States, 1980-2050 Other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Latino Black White

72% 70% 63% 56% 53% 50% 47% 44% 27% 27% 28% 30% 30% 30% 29% 28% 1% 2% 5% 9% 10% 12% 14% 15% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Changing Demographics Georgia, 1980-2050 Other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Latino Black White

74% 71% 60% 51% 47% 44% 42% 40% 24% 25% 28% 32% 32% 31% 30% 28% 1% 2% 6% 10% 12% 13% 15% 16% 2% 3% 5% 6% 7% 9% 10%

1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Changing Demographics Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1980-2050 Other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Latino Black White

284,920 795,632 1,046,993 458,133 382,924 142,213

1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2010-2014 Total Population Growth by Decade Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1980-2014

People of Color Non-Hispanic White

27% 38% 129% 332% 18% 57% 360% 168% 6% 46% 110% 106%

• 25%

25% 75% 125% 175% 225% 275% 325% 375% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Population Growth Rates by Race/Ethnicity Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1980-2014 1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2010-2014

2% 4% 10% 13% 2% 3% 7% 10% 6% 8% 11% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 1980 1990 2000 2010-2014 Percent Foreign Born U.S., Georgia and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta Metro Area

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area Georgia United States

• 10%
• 3%
• 2%

13% 39% 131% 31% 80% 31% 92%

• 25%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% United States Georgia Change in Youth Population by Race/Ethnicity U.S. and Georgia, 2000-2014 White Black Latino API Other

Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white.

Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white.

Note: Tracts with missing data are shaded white.

43 37 36 33 33 28 20 45 36 38 36 39 28 23

White All API Black Native American and Alaska Native Latino Other or mixed race

Median Age by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2014 United States Georgia

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

percent of income

Income Distribution in the U.S., 1917-2015

Top 1% (incomes above $443,000 in 2015) Top 5-1% (incomes between $180,500 and $443,000) Top 10-5% (incomes between $124,800 and $180,500)

Source: Emmanuel Saez, Striking It Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States (Update : August 31, 2016).

CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY

Source: IPUMS

CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY

• 9%
• 7%

4% 12% 22%

• 11%
• 10%
• 7%

6% 17%

10th Percentile 20th Percentile 50th Percentile 80th Percentile 90th Percentile

Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full-Time Workers 25-64 ($2010) CA and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1980 to 2010-2014

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area United States

60% 57% 64% 34% 54% 70% 62% Mixed/ other Native American Asian/Pacific Islander Latino Black White All

CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY

SHARE OF WORKERS EARNING AT LEAST $15/HOUR BY RACE/ETHNICITY GEORGIA, 2015

• 40%

20% 80% 140% 200% Job Growth Rate U.S., Georgia and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 1979-2014

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area Georgia United States

65% 13% 29% 29% 46% 40%

• 20%

20% 60% 100% 140% Jobs Earnings per worker

Growth in Jobs and Earnings by Wage Level Georgia, 1990 to 2015

Low-wage Med-wage High-wage

3% 8% 6% 5% 7% 13% 8% 6%

White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity Georgia, 1990 to 2010-2014 1990 2010-2014

3% 5% 5% 7% 13% 8% 6%

White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Unemployment Rate by Race/Ethnicity Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta Metro Area, 1990 to 2010-2014 1990 2010-2014

13% 40% 27% 19% 19% 16% 36% 47% 20% 24%

White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander All Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Georgia 1990 2010-2014

8% 30% 25% 19% 14% 11% 29% 46% 19% 20%

White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander All Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area 1990 2010-2014

PREPARING THE NEXT GENERATION?

Kids of color concentrated in high-poverty schools (Atlanta metro area)

11% 9% 31% 33% 24% 22% 23% 23% 13% 8% 8% 6% 25% 36% 28% U.S. Born, In-State "Home-Grown" U.S. Born, Out-of- State Foreign Born In-state U.S.-born, out-of-state U.S.-born, and immigrant populations by educational attainment United States, 2010-2014 Bachelor's degree or higher Associate's degree Some college High school grad Less than high school diploma

Note: Universe is population ages 25+.

18% 8% 29% 36% 23% 22% 21% 24% 13% 6% 8% 6% 19% 38% 29% U.S. Born, In-State "Home-Grown" U.S. Born, Out-of- State Foreign Born In-state U.S.-born, out-of-state U.S.-born, and immigrant populations by educational attainment Georgia, 2010-2014 Bachelor's degree or higher Associate's degree Some college High school grad Less than high school diploma

Note: Universe is population ages 25+.

14% 5% 26% 32% 19% 22% 22% 23% 13% 6% 8% 6% 25% 44% 33% U.S. Born, In-State "Home-Grown" U.S. Born, Out-of- State Foreign Born In-state U.S.-born, out-of-state U.S.-born, and immigrant populations by educational attainment Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metro Area, 2010-2014 Bachelor's degree or higher Associate's degree Some college High school grad Less than high school diploma

Note: Universe is population ages 25+.

17% 5% 15% 29% 10% 13% 20% 15% 12% 4% 5% 4% 30% 65% 56% U.S. Born, In-State "Home-Grown" U.S. Born, Out-of- State Foreign Born In-state U.S.-born, out-of-state U.S.-born, and immigrant populations by educational attainment City of Atlanta, 2010-2014 Bachelor's degree or higher Associate's degree Some college High school grad Less than high school diploma

Note: Universe is population ages 25+.

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Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency. But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth—for everyone.

THINKING NEW: EQUITY AND GROWTH

EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH

Image Sources: http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/2/24/1235500211963/Ben-Bernanke-chairman-of--003.jpg; http://blog.usni.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Fed-logo_trans.png; http://www.benjamindrickey.com/gallery/gallery_federal_reserve.jpg

An early push in this direction: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth.

We have developed these ideas further in . . . EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH Using model from IMF, we look at what predicts length

• f employment growth for

200 metros, 1980-2010 – inequality & social distance are key dragging factors on sustained growth.

We have developed these ideas further in . . . EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH We also did 11 case studies and found that:

• Knowing together creates

a higher possibility of growing together.

• Conflict is an important

part – and not antithetical – to collaboration.

ECONOMIC GAINS TO STATE ECONOMY IN FULL-EMPLOYMENT-FOR-ALL MODEL: GEORGIA, 2016

$495.5 $507.0

$485 $490 $495 $500 $505 $510

Actual Projected

GDP ($billions) $0

384,366

more workers would be employed

114,459

fewer residents would be living in poverty

$2.4 billion

more in tax revenue to strengthen the social safety net

EQUITY GAINS FOR GEORGIA

ECONOMIC GAINS TO STATE ECONOMY IF RACIAL INCOME DIFFERENTIALS ALSO ERASED: GEORGIA, 2014

EQUITY GAINS FOR GEORGIA

THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE

a Past

• Prioritizes investments that close racialized & other gaps,

especially by wealth, environmental burden, and existing amenities in a way that will improve work and economic opportunities for underinvested communities.

a Present

• Involves authentic partnership throughout the process

that centers the perspectives of vulnerable communities, supports community-based participation and power, and results in shared decision making, while also strengthening the health and well-being of an entire region.

a Future

• Mitigates disparities likely to emerge in the future

by leveraging funding for long-term community health & organizational capacity, anticipating and addressing future harm that may result for new investments in a place, and incorporating metrics and evaluation to promote adaptable and effective implementation.

EQUITABLE IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERS:

WORKFORCE STRATEGIES TRANSIT STRATEGIES

Need to promote clusters with career ladders, integrating this with neighborhood-based delivery systems, local hiring agreements, and special assistance for those leaving the system of incarceration An overall need to reverse the bias toward highway spending to public transit, from infrastructure to operations. One size does not fit all but transit-oriented development can

• ffer real possibilities for neighborhood revitalization.

HOUSING STRATEGIES

Provide real incentives for affordable housing production, and land trusts, work to expand suburban opportunity and acknowledge that the recovery of urban areas requires protection against displacement and gentrification.

POLICIES FOR EQUITY & GROWTH

ASSET BUILDING HEALTHY PLACES

Need to consider the financial deserts that result from lack of bank services. “Bank On” programs help banks see the customer base with new data, help customers see the banks with financial literacy, and create systems of accountability. Need to consider the lack of fresh food as well as environmental disparities in both exposures and opportunities. Parks, community gardens, and other access to food security and solace is key to community health.

STRONG SCHOOLS

The toughest nut to crack and yet absolutely essential to retention of families in cities. There may be many different strategies but community leaders cannot stand apart from this without losing the fight for the city.

POLICIES FOR EQUITY & SUSTAINABILITY

BUT OUR INSTITUTIONS ARE BROKEN

DATA AND DIALOGUE

ROOTS AND RELATIONSHIPS

PEOPLE AND PROSPERITY

Improve conditions in poor neighborhoods

Realign growth and development strategies to better connect low-income people and places with metro-wide

• pportunities

Open up access to

• pportunity-rich

communities

▪ Stress that equity and inclusion are fundamental; they need to be baked in not sprinkled on

MOVING FORWARD

▪ Work to bring together unusual partners across sectors and silos ▪ But understand that these are turbulent times and likely to be more so: get comfortable with being uncomfortable

FOR MORE . . .

@Prof_MPastor