Lifestyle in transport sector Keisuke Matsuhashi Senior Researcher, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The 3rd Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project "Roadmap to Low-Carbon World'' Group 4: Barriers and opportunities : approaches to sensitive LCS sectors : (Feb. 14th 2008) Lifestyle in transport sector Keisuke Matsuhashi Senior Researcher, Transport and Urban Environment Section, NIES 1

S c e n a r i o : P e n e t r a t i o n o f H y b r i d E l e c t r i c V e h i c l e s （ H E V ） C O 2 e m i s s i o n s r e d u c e d b y 4 5 % b y h y b r i d i z a t i o n . E m i s s i o n ( M t - C O ) ± 0 ％ +19 ％ B A U : + 1 9 % 2 E m i s s i o n ( M t - C O ) H E V : ±0 % 2 3 0 0 a i r / r a i l / w a t e r 3 0 0 a i r / r a i l / w a t e r L D V s ( H E V ) L D V s ( H E V ) 2 5 0 L D V s 2 5 0 L D V s P r i v a t e H D V s P r i v a t e H D V s 2 0 0 2 0 0 C o m m e r c i a l H D V s C o m m e r c i a l H D V s L i g h t f r e i g h t v e h i c l e s 1 5 0 L i g h t f r e i g h t v e h i c l e s 1 5 0 L i g h t p a s s e n g e r c a r s B u s e s L i g h t p a s s e n g e r c a r s ( B E V ) 1 0 0 1 0 0 P a s s e n g e r c a r s ( H E V ) L i g h t p a s s e n g e r c a r s P a s s e n g e r c a r s B u s e s 5 0 5 0 HEV scenario Baseline scenario P a s s e n g e r c a r s ( H E V ) P a s s e n g e r c a r s 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 CO 2 emissions （ Mt-CO2 ） 2

C o m b i n a t i o n o f c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s w h i c h r e d u c e 2 0 % e a c h c o u l d c a u s e o v e r 7 0 % r e d u c t i o n a s t o t a l Demand management e.g. by information- (1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26 communication technology [transport-service per capita] Modal shift to reduce CO 2 EF Improve fuel economy per passenger-km or ton-km [Fuel consumption per vehicle-km] ⎛ ⎞ CO TransServ P km ( Tkm ) Vkm Fuel CO EF ∑ = × × ⎜ × × ⎟ 2 2 ⎜ ⎟ ⎝ ⎠ capita capita TransServ Pkm ( Tkm ) Vkm Fuel Mode Improve load factor [vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)] Introduce low carbon energy Improve accessibility [CO 2 emission factor per fuel [passenger-km or ton-km consumption] per transport-service] 3

E s t i m a t e d r e g i o n a l a u t o m o t i v e C O 2 e m i s s i o n s 2 . 5 0 Tokyo Met. Nagoya Met. 2 . 0 0 Osaka Met. Other Areas 1 . 5 0 Freight vehicles 1 . 0 0 Passenger cars 0 . 5 0 0 . 0 0 [ t / y e a r ] 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 01 2 0 0 01 4 0 0 0 A c c u m u l a t e d p o p u l a t i o n [ m i l l i o n ] C O 2 p e r c a p i t a Each Area is categorized in 1. Major cities 2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above 3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above Passenger car emissions 4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above (t-CO2/capita) 5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million 6. Counties 4

L C S 2 0 5 0 : a d r a f t v i s i o n ( R e g i o n a l e m i s s i o n s ) T r a n s p o r t C O [ t / c a p i t a / y e a r ] T e c h n o l o g i c a l & 2 2 . 0 0 b e h a v i o u r a l c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s 1 . 5 0 1 9 9 0 D e p o p u l a t i o n 1 . 0 0 n l a & s h i f t f r o m a b 2 0 5 0 r r b u r U R u r u r a l t o u r b a n l b l a i 0 . 5 0 a u i c S c n i n i o v r v o t M e t r o U r b a n r o e r P P M 0 . 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 A c c u m u l a t e d p o p u l a t i o n [ t e n - t h o u s a n d ] Index of the regional categories Metro Provincial Rural Urban 5

N e w c o n c e p t s f o r p e r s o n a l m o b i l i t y Y a m a h a : E C - 0 2 t h e S e g w a yH u m a n T r a n s p o r t e r T o y o t a : i - R E A L K a w a m u r a c y c l e K E Y a m a t o : P o w e r - a s s i s t e d d e l i v e r y b i c y c l e (catalog information) 6

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) P i c t u r e o f E S T 3 ( C o m b i n a t i o n ) Utilization of Biomass Energy Shifting to Bicycle and Walking More Energy Shifting to Efficient Mode Railways Utilization of Telecommunication Tools Popularization of Wind-generated FCEVs Electricity 7

L C S 2 0 5 0 : a d r a f t v i s i o n M e t r o M e t r o P r o v i n c i a l P r o v i n c i a l t o t a l U r b a n S u b u r b U r b a n R u r a l C o m p a c t △ l ○ ○ ○ C 2 1 7 - > 6 3 M t e s s r o o m o m p a c t n e i g h b o r h o o d f o r i m p r o v e . S e t t l e m e n t R e h a b i l i t a t i o n R e h a b i l i t a t i o n T o 1 9 9 0 C o m p a c t c i t y △ C × △ C × - 7 1 % i t y c e n t e r i t y c e n t e r r e n e w a l r e n e w a l I n d e x : E n h a n c e × p △ P ○ L △ v ◎: - 3 0 % a s s e n g e r a r k & R T a n p o o l , p u b l i c t r a n s i t △ f R i d e e t c . s h a r e d t a x i ○: - 2 0 % r e i g h t △: - 1 0 % I m p r o v e l o a d △ U △ U △ E × t i l i z e t i l i z e n h a n c e ×: n o r o o m s m a l l v e h i c l e s s m a l l v e h i c l e s s h a r i n g e f f i c i e n c y ※F r e i g h t a n d I m p r o v e f u e l ◎ U ◎ U ○ l ○ l r b a n r b a n o c a l m o d e o c a l m o d e r e g i o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n m o d e m o d e t r a n s p o r t s a r e t o b e L o w c a r b o n △ l ○ ○ ○ e s s r o o m c o n s i d e r e d . e n e r g y f o r i m p r o v e p o p 4 6 →4 5 1 5 →1 0 2 7 →2 5 3 5 →1 5 1 2 4 →9 5 ( m i l l i o n ) t - C O / c a p i t a 1 . 2 7 →0 . 5 6 1 . 7 2 →0 . 6 2 2 . 0 4 →0 . 6 8 2 . 2 0 →1 . 0 1 1 . 7 6 →0 . 6 7 2 8

2 5 0 C O 2 i n 1 9 9 0 The share of the 2 0 0 reduction in a draft P o p u l a t i o n d e c r e a c e - 7 0 % LCS2050 vision U r b a n i z a t i o n 1 5 0 C o m p a c t n e i g h b o r h o o d a n d c i t y E n h a n c e p u b l i c T r a n s i t 1 0 0 I m p r o v e l o a d e f f i c i e n c y , f u e l c o n s u m p t i o n a n d c a r b o n i n t e n s i t y 5 0 C O 2 i n 2 0 5 0 0 9