Lifestyle in transport sector Keisuke Matsuhashi Senior Researcher, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

1 The 3rd Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project "Roadmap to Low-Carbon World'' Group 4: Barriers and opportunities : approaches to sensitive LCS sectors : (Feb. 14th 2008)

Lifestyle in transport sector

Keisuke Matsuhashi Senior Researcher, Transport and Urban Environment Section, NIES

SLIDE 2

2

E m i s s i

• n

( M t

• C

O

2

) 5 1 1 5 2 2 5 3 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 2 2 a i r / r a i l / w a t e r L D V s ( H E V ) L D V s P r i v a t e H D V s C

• m

m e r c i a l H D V s L i g h t f r e i g h t v e h i c l e s L i g h t p a s s e n g e r c a r s B u s e s P a s s e n g e r c a r s ( H E V ) P a s s e n g e r c a r s

B A U : + 1 9 % E m i s s i

• n

( M t

• C

O

2

) 5 1 1 5 2 2 5 3 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 4 2 1 6 2 1 8 2 2

a i r / r a i l / w a t e r L D V s ( H E V ) L D V s P r i v a t e H D V s C

• m

m e r c i a l H D V s L i g h t f r e i g h t v e h i c l e s L i g h t p a s s e n g e r c a r s ( B E V ) L i g h t p a s s e n g e r c a r s B u s e s P a s s e n g e r c a r s ( H E V ) P a s s e n g e r c a r s

H E V : ±0 %

HEV scenario

±0％

Baseline scenario

CO2 emissions （ Mt-CO2） +19％

S c e n a r i

• :

P e n e t r a t i

• n
• f

H y b r i d E l e c t r i c V e h i c l e s （ H E V ）

C O

2e

m i s s i

• n

s r e d u c e d b y 4 5 % b y h y b r i d i z a t i

• n

.

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3

C

• m

b i n a t i

• n
• f

c

• u

n t e r m e a s u r e s w h i c h r e d u c e 2 % e a c h c

• u

l d c a u s e

• v

e r 7 % r e d u c t i

• n

a s t

• t

a l

Demand management e.g. by information- communication technology [transport-service per capita] Improve accessibility [passenger-km or ton-km per transport-service] Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF per passenger-km or ton-km Improve load factor [vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)] Improve fuel economy [Fuel consumption per vehicle-km] Introduce low carbon energy [CO2 emission factor per fuel consumption]

∑

⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ × × × × =

Mode

Fuel EF Vkm Fuel Tkm Pkm Vkm TransServ Tkm km P capita TransServ capita

2 2

CO ) ( ) ( CO

(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

SLIDE 4

4

. . 5 1 . 1 . 5 2 . 2 . 5 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 01 2 01 4

E s t i m a t e d r e g i

• n

a l a u t

• m
• t

i v e C O

2e

m i s s i

• n

s

Each Area is categorized in

• 1. Major cities
• 2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above
• 3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above
• 4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above
• 5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million
• 6. Counties

A c c u m u l a t e d p

• p

u l a t i

• n

[ m i l l i

• n

]

C O 2 p e r c a p i t a [ t / y e a r ]

Tokyo Met. Osaka Met. Nagoya Met. Other Areas

Passenger car emissions (t-CO2/capita) Freight vehicles Passenger cars

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5

L C S 2 5 : a d r a f t v i s i

• n

( R e g i

• n

a l e m i s s i

• n

s )

Index of the regional categories

Rural Urban

Metro Provincial

. . 5 1 . 1 . 5 2 . 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 A c c u m u l a t e d p

• p

u l a t i

• n

[ t e n

• t

h

• u

s a n d ]

P r

• v

i n c i a l U r b a n M e t r

• U

r b a n P r

• v

i n c i a l R u r a l M e t r

• S

u b u r b T r a n s p

• r

t C O

2

[ t / c a p i t a / y e a r ] 1 9 9 2 5

D e p

• p

u l a t i

• n

& s h i f t f r

• m

r u r a l t

• u

r b a n T e c h n

• l
• g

i c a l & b e h a v i

• u

r a l c

• u

n t e r m e a s u r e s

SLIDE 6

6

t h e S e g w a yH u m a n T r a n s p

• r

t e r Y a m a h a : E C

• 2

K a w a m u r a c y c l e K E

(catalog information)

Y a m a t

• :

P

• w

e r

• a

s s i s t e d d e l i v e r y b i c y c l e

N e w c

• n

c e p t s f

• r

p e r s

• n

a l m

• b

i l i t y

T

• y
• t

a : i

• R

E A L

SLIDE 7

7

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003) Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

P i c t u r e

• f

E S T 3 ( C

• m

b i n a t i

• n

)

Popularization of FCEVs More Energy Efficient Mode Utilization of Biomass Energy Utilization of Telecommunication Tools Shifting to Bicycle and Walking Shifting to Railways Wind-generated Electricity

SLIDE 8

8

L C S 2 5 : a d r a f t v i s i

• n

M e t r

• U

r b a n M e t r

• S

u b u r b P r

• v

i n c i a l U r b a n P r

• v

i n c i a l R u r a l t

• t

a l C

• m

p a c t n e i g h b

• r

h

• d

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e s s r

• m

f

• r

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• v

e .

○

R e h a b i l i t a t i

• n

○

R e h a b i l i t a t i

• n

C

• m

p a c t c i t y △C

i t y c e n t e r r e n e w a l

× △C

i t y c e n t e r r e n e w a l

○C

• m

p a c t S e t t l e m e n t

× △v

a n p

• l

, s h a r e d t a x i

× ○l

• c

a l m

• d

e

○ p

• p

( m i l l i

• n

)

4 6 →4 5 1 5 →1 2 7 →2 5 3 5 →1 5 1 2 4 →9 5 E n h a n c e p u b l i c t r a n s i t ×p

a s s e n g e r

△f

r e i g h t

△P

a r k & R i d e e t c .

○L

R T

I m p r

• v

e l

• a

d e f f i c i e n c y △U

t i l i z e s m a l l v e h i c l e s

△U

t i l i z e s m a l l v e h i c l e s

△E

n h a n c e s h a r i n g

I m p r

• v

e f u e l c

• n

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◎U

r b a n m

• d

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◎U

r b a n m

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○l

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2 . 2 →1 . 1

L

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1 . 2 7 →0 . 5 6 1 . 7 2 →0 . 6 2 2 . 4 →0 . 6 8 1 . 7 6 →0 . 6 7

2 1 7

• >

6 3 M t T

• 1

9 9

• 7

1 %

I n d e x : ◎:

• 3

% ○:

• 2

% △:

• 1

% ×: n

• r
• m

※F r e i g h t a n d r e g i

• n

a l t r a n s p

• r

t s a r e t

• b

e c

• n

s i d e r e d .

SLIDE 9

9 5 1 1 5 2 2 5 P

• p

u l a t i

• n

d e c r e a c e U r b a n i z a t i

• n

C

• m

p a c t n e i g h b

• r

h

• d

a n d c i t y E n h a n c e p u b l i c T r a n s i t I m p r

• v

e l

• a

d e f f i c i e n c y , f u e l c

• n

s u m p t i

• n

a n d c a r b

• n

i n t e n s i t y C O 2 i n 2 5 C O 2 i n 1 9 9

• 7

%

The share of the reduction in a draft LCS2050 vision

SLIDE 10

10

L C S 2 5 : a d r a f t v i s i

• n

L C S 2 5 : P

• l

i c y r e c

• m

m e n d a t i

• n

s

M e t r

• U

r b a n M e t r

• S

u b u r b P r

• v

i n c i a l U r b a n P r

• v

i n c i a l R u r a l t

• t

a l C

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p a c t n e i g h b

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h

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f

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○

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• n

○

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• m

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× △C

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○ p

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( m i l l i

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4 6 →4 5 1 5 →1 2 7 →2 5 3 5 →1 5 1 2 4 →9 5 E n h a n c e p u b l i c t r a n s i t ×p

a s s e n g e r

△f

r e i g h t

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2

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1 . 2 7 →0 . 5 6 1 . 7 2 →0 . 6 2 2 . 4 →0 . 6 8 1 . 7 6 →0 . 6 7

2 1 7

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6 3 M t T

• 1

9 9

• 7

1 %

I n d e x : ◎:

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% ○:

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% △:

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※F r e i g h t a n d r e g i

• n

a l t r a n s p

• r

t s a r e t

• b

e c

• n

s i d e r e d .

R e n e w a l P r e f e r e n t i a l t a x t r e a t m e n t s R e d e v e l

• p

m e n t I n f r a s t r u c t u r e , S u b s i d y A p p r

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e s h a r e d t a x i R e g u l a t i

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f u e l c

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E n g i n e e r i n g d e v e l

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