Lessons from ReCom in a post- 2015 perspective Lets consider What - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Lessons from ReCom in a post- 2015 perspective

Let’s consider…

• What has worked and could be scaled up in the

allocation, design and implementation of aid post- 2015?

• What has not worked and could be improved?
• Can we identify key opportunities to use aid more

effectively to help achieve inclusive growth and effective, open and accountable institutions for all?

• What are the critical trade-offs and possible tensions in

aid relationships?

ReCom – Points of Departure

• How effective is aid?
• Multiple goals for aid + country variety
• Delivery of aid is complex – many actors
• Aid is just one element of development
• Community action, private sector, state-building
• Many bold statements – but nobody can speak with authority on

every facet of development, nor aid

• ReCom – Research & Communication in Foreign Aid
• Large network: 300+ people from 60 countries (since no single

person knows everything about aid)

http://recom.wider.unu.edu/

ReCom – Aid Analyzed under 5 Themes

• Social Sectors
• Growth & Employment
• Governance & Fragility
• Gender Equality
• Environment & Climate Change

All relate to the MDGs & the post-2015 development debate. Today focus on first three. Will assume clear that aid needed to support gender equality and with reference to climate change.

Aid & Social Development

Health Care, Education, Water & Sanitation, Social Protection

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3

Other conditions Intrapartum related events Preterm birth complications Measles Diarrhoea Pneumonia

2000

Meningitis Neonatal Tetanus Malaria Neonatal Pneumonia Other conditions neonatal Neonatal sepsis/ meningitis Neonatal diarrhea injury Congenital abnormalities AIDS 2010

73 57

<20% decline from 2000 to 2010 20-30% decline from 2000 to 2010 >30% decline from 2000 to 2010

~50% of the reduction comes from pneumonia, diarrhea, and measles Reduction in global U5MR by disease, 2000 to 2010 Deaths per 1,000 births

SOURCE: CHERG 2012, Lancet 2012

2.6-3.0 million fewer under 5 child deaths annually

Aid to Social Sectors

Aid to Social Sectors (billion USD constant 2010) Aid to Social Sectors as % of total aid flows

5 10 15 20 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Education Health

5 10 15 20 25 30 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Education Health Water and Sanitation

Aid is effective in social development

• ReCom shows that: an annual inflow of aid of 5% of GDP:
• Augments schooling (enrolments up, but quality problem

remains)

• Helped reduce infant mortality by 7 per 1000 births
• Reduced poverty BUT depends on inclusiveness of growth
• Many innovative & successful interventions – but problems

too (e.g. in Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria)

• & too many children are still hungry & unschooled

(especially girls)

Aid & Economic Development

Economic Growth: ReCom finds:

• Over the long run, aid inflow of US$ 25 per capita adds an

additional 0.5 percentage point to annual per capita growth (incl. by raising public investment)

• Impact is cumulative – e.g. nourishing a child today has a

growth impact later

• By investing in an economy’s supply-side – aid can avoid

Dutch Disease

• Helps reconstruction – e.g. Mozambique, Uganda (BUT aid

cannot do the job of peace-keeping alone e.g. Afghanistan, south Sudan)

UN High-Level Panel report on the post- 2015 development agenda

• Calls for:
• “..A quantum leap forward in economic
• pportunities and a profound economic

transformation to end extreme poverty and improve livelihoods…”

• How can aid help?
• Aid to social sectors builds human capital BUT being

educated & healthy is not enough

What will happen to aid allocation post-2015?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Social Sectors Economic Infrastructure Production Sectors

Aid, Governance & Fragility

Build state capability to ‘deliver like a state’ not just ‘look like a state’

• Think of aid as helping to address needs that states alone cannot.

If aid works, it should become obsolete…

• Avoid creating incentives for states to look like states, without

delivering like them

• A capability trap characterizes many states with stagnant or

declining capacity

• What to do? Adopt a new approach: Problem-driven Iterative

adaptation (PDIA)

– PDIA has four principles: it is problem driven; it authorizes positive deviation into the design space; it adapts using experiential learning; and it scales up through diffusion.

Fragile states and situations call for special focus

• 1.5 billion people, furthest away from achieving the

MDGs

• And extremely weak state capability and legitimacy.
• We often focus on special approaches for ‘fragile’ vs.

not fragile states, but also remember that fragility and poor governance are two sides of the same coin.

• Diverse experiences with aid for governance reform

should inform work on fragility – as we show in ReCom.

Legitimacy is a core component of building effective states

• UN High-Level Panel report on the post-2015

development agenda calls on us to: – “Build peace and effective, open and accountable institutions for all.”

Donor support for democratic governance in Africa is also increasing

Aid has supported democratic transitions

• See Democratic Trajectories in Africa: Unraveling the

Impact of Foreign Aid (Resnick & van de Walle 2013)

• Build on these experiences: assistance for elections,

political parties, strengthening legislatures, civil society, the rule of law

• Also think outside the box: tax reform and state-

building

• Remember too that aid can have negative effects on

local legitimacy

Nearly concluded: building bridges

Remittances help build this:

But we also need to build this:

Climate change could overwhelm development

MDGs & Post-2015

• Aid helps economic growth (overall). BUT:
• To achieve the HLP ‘quantum leap’ it must support:
• Structural transformation – industrial policy & don’t just focus on SMEs (“East

Asia’s donors do it better?”)

• Creation of ‘good jobs’ – donors pay too little attention to employment –

fragmented livelihood projects

• State capability and legitimacy – support domestic capability and legitimacy to

deliver like a state, not just look like a state

• Gender equity at scale – rhetoric, but too-small-scale
• Aid to agriculture – slumped & still too low (esp. crop research). IFAD & AfDB

‘going to scale’

• Infrastructure – use aid to leverage private capital (e.g. AfDB Africa50 fund).

Recall Climate change challenge

Aid & Gender Equality

• No inclusive growth if it does not fully incorporate ability of

citizens, regardless of gender

• DAC has monitored commitments to gender equality since 1991 –

about 15% of all screened aid pursues the objective

• ReCom concludes that 15% is too low
• Highest in education: 30% of all screened aid. Health mixed:

maternal health now a high priority but family planning too low

• Aid for gender equality languishes in productive sectors: in

agriculture aid for gender equality fallen to 15%

• Small livelihood projects; little at scale

Conclusions: Is the aid job done?

Need: research not rhetoric

• Ask an engineer: do bridges work?
• Bridges work - when well-designed & built
• Ask a development expert: does aid work?
• Aid can work – when well-designed & implemented
• Instead of rhetoric – nothing works in development, nor in

aid, & we can never know what works & why (= “all bridges fail, & will continue to fail”)…

• … find out: what works? What could work? What is scalable?

What is transferrable?

www.wider.unu.edu

Helsinki, Finland

Let’s consider…

• What has worked and could be scaled up in the

allocation, design and implementation of aid post- 2015?

• What has not worked and could be improved?
• Can we identify key opportunities to use aid more

effectively to help achieve inclusive growth and effective, open and accountable institutions for all?

• What are the critical trade-offs and possible tensions in

aid relationships?

Net Official Development Assistance (disbursements in constant prices 2010)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Billion USD

Total ODA Bilateral Multilateral In 1960, 36.4 billion USD of aid allocated. By 2011 aid flows had multiplied by four to 146 billion USD per year

31

• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

• 50

50 100 150 200 250 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 (p) % GDP Current USD, billion Remittances Official Development Assistance Portfolio investments Foreign direct investments % GDP

Financial flows to African countries