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Law, Business & Policy Thursday, May 12 Washington, DC Scan to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy Thursday, May 12 Washington, DC Scan to download this presentation or to receive link via e-mail Introduct ctio ion Susan L. Karamanian Associate Dean BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH

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BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION:

Law, Business & Policy

Thursday, May 12 – Washington, DC

Scan to download this presentation or to receive link via e-mail

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BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy The George Washington University Law School

Introduct ctio ion

Susan L. Karamanian Associate Dean

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BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION:

Law, Business & Policy

Thursday, May 12 – Washington, DC

Scan to download this presentation or to receive link via e-mail

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BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy The George Washington University Law School

Luncheon at Faculty lty Conference ce Center

Alvir Hoffmann Deputy CEO and Executive Vice-President of FEBRABAN

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SLIDE 5

Brazil: Economic Outlook, credit market and banking sector

Alvir Hoffmann

Deputy CEO / Vice President

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SLIDE 6

Economic Activity

6

06/05/16

  • 3,86

06/05/16 0,50

  • 5,0
  • 4,0
  • 3,0
  • 2,0
  • 1,0

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 11/02/2015 26/02/2015 13/03/2015 28/03/2015 12/04/2015 27/04/2015 12/05/2015 27/05/2015 11/06/2015 26/06/2015 11/07/2015 26/07/2015 10/08/2015 25/08/2015 09/09/2015 24/09/2015 09/10/2015 24/10/2015 08/11/2015 23/11/2015 08/12/2015 23/12/2015 07/01/2016 22/01/2016 06/02/2016 21/02/2016 07/03/2016 22/03/2016 06/04/2016 21/04/2016 06/05/2016

2016 2017

Market Expectations* - GDP

(YoY %)

GDP

(YoY %)

Source: IBGE Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05)

  • 8,0
  • 6,0
  • 4,0
  • 2,0

0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 2007.I 2007.III 2008.I 2008.III 2009.I 2009.III 2010.I 2010.III 2011.I 2011.III 2012.I 2012.III 2013.I 2013.III 2014.I 2014.III 2015.I 2015.III

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SLIDE 7

Economic Activity

Source: IBGE

7

CPI ac. in 12 months

(YoY %)

Sources: BCB (Focus of 06/05), & IBGE

CPI decomposition

(ac. in 12 months %)

9,28% 9,95% 9,11% 7,42% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19%

  • ut/11

abr/12

  • ut/12

abr/13

  • ut/13

abr/14

  • ut/14

abr/15

  • ut/15

abr/16 IPCA IPCA - monitored prices IPCA - tradable IPCA - nontradable

abr/16 9,28 mai/16 9,04 jul/16 8,16 dez/16 7,00

  • ut/17

5,82 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0

set/11 dez/11 mar/12 jun/12 set/12 dez/12 mar/13 jun/13 set/13 dez/13 mar/14 jun/14 set/14 dez/14 mar/15 jun/15 set/15 dez/15 mar/16 jun/16 set/16 dez/16 mar/17 jun/17 set/17

Focus 06/05

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SLIDE 8

Economic Activity

Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05)

8

Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05)

Market Expectations* - CPI

(YoY %)

7,00 5,62

3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 11/02/2015 26/02/2015 13/03/2015 28/03/2015 12/04/2015 27/04/2015 12/05/2015 27/05/2015 11/06/2015 26/06/2015 11/07/2015 26/07/2015 10/08/2015 25/08/2015 09/09/2015 24/09/2015 09/10/2015 24/10/2015 08/11/2015 23/11/2015 08/12/2015 23/12/2015 07/01/2016 22/01/2016 06/02/2016 21/02/2016 07/03/2016 22/03/2016 06/04/2016 21/04/2016 06/05/2016

2016 2017 13,00 11,75

8,0 9,0 10,0 11,0 12,0 13,0 14,0 15,0 16,0 11/02/2015 26/02/2015 13/03/2015 28/03/2015 12/04/2015 27/04/2015 12/05/2015 27/05/2015 11/06/2015 26/06/2015 11/07/2015 26/07/2015 10/08/2015 25/08/2015 09/09/2015 24/09/2015 09/10/2015 24/10/2015 08/11/2015 23/11/2015 08/12/2015 23/12/2015 07/01/2016 22/01/2016 06/02/2016 21/02/2016 07/03/2016 22/03/2016 06/04/2016 21/04/2016 06/05/2016

2016 2017

Market Expectations* - Selic

(YoY % – end-of-period)

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SLIDE 9

Economic Activity

Source: BCB / CA = Current Account

9

Source: BCB / CA = Current Account

International Reserves / CA

(ac. in 12 months)

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12

  • ut/12

dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13

  • ut/13

dez/13 fev/14 abr/14 jun/14 ago/14

  • ut/14

dez/14 fev/15 abr/15 jun/15 ago/15

  • ut/15

dez/15 fev/16 20.000

46.400

  • 10.000

10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 15.000 25.000 35.000 45.000 55.000 65.000 75.000 85.000 95.000 105.000 jan/14 fev/14 mar/14 abr/14 mai/14 jun/14 jul/14 ago/14 set/14

  • ut/14

nov/14 dez/14 jan/15 fev/15 mar/15 abr/15 mai/15 jun/15 jul/15 ago/15 set/15

  • ut/15

nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 fev/16 mar/16 2016* Current Account Deficit Trade Balance (right)

CA deficit & TB

(ac. in 12 months – USD M*)

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SLIDE 10

Economic Activity

Sources: Receita Federal, BCB e Min. Fazenda

10

Sources: Receita Federal, BCB e Min. Fazenda

Gross Debt and Primary Result

(% GDP)

Federal Tax Revenue

(ac. in 12 months – prices of mar/16)

56,0 59,3 51,8 51,3 54,8 53,3 58,9 66,2 74,4 80,0 3,3 2,0 2,6 2,9 2,2 1,8

  • 0,6
  • 1,9
  • 1,7
  • 1,1
  • 2,5
  • 1,5
  • 0,5

0,5 1,5 2,5 3,5 50,0 53,0 56,0 59,0 62,0 65,0 68,0 71,0 74,0 77,0 80,0 83,0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* Gross Debt Primary Result 1.250 1.270 1.290 1.310 1.330 1.350 1.370 1.390 1.410 jul/13 set/13 nov/13 jan/14 mar/14 mai/14 jul/14 set/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16

R$ Bi

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SLIDE 11

Economic Activity

Source: BM&FBovespa

11

Source: BCB

Exchange Rate

(/USD)

Ibovespa Index

40.000 45.000 50.000 55.000 60.000 65.000 jul/14 set/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 jul/14 ago/14 set/14

  • ut/14

nov/14 dez/14 jan/15 fev/15 mar/15 abr/15 mai/15 jun/15 jul/15 ago/15 set/15

  • ut/15

nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 fev/16 mar/16 abr/16

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SLIDE 12

Economic Activity

Source: Bloomberg

12

Source: Bloomberg

Interest Curve

(Pré-DI BM&F - %)

Credit Default Swap 1 YR

(points)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 mai-15 jun-15 jul-15 ago-15 set-15

  • ut-15

nov-15 dez-15 jan-16 fev-16 mar-16 abr-16 13,0 13,5 14,0 14,5 15,0 15,5 16,0 16,5 mai-15 jun-15 jul-15 ago-15 set-15

  • ut-15

nov-15 dez-15 jan-16 fev-16 mar-16 abr-16

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SLIDE 13

Credit Market

13

Source: BCB

Credit to GDP

(%)

34,7 39,7 42,6 44,1 46,5 50,3 52,6 54,7 54,5

dez/07 dez/08 dez/09 dez/10 dez/11 dez/12 dez/13 dez/14 dez/15

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SLIDE 14

Credit Market

Source: BCB

14

Source: BCB

Household Credit by modality

(YoY %)

Credit to GDP

(%)

10 14 18 22 26 30 dez/07 dez/08 dez/09 dez/10 dez/11 dez/12 dez/13 dez/14 dez/15 Non-Earmarked Earmarked

15,5% 7,6% 13,2% 6,3%

30,5% 12,6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% mar-14 mai-14 jul-14 set-14 nov-14 jan-15 mar-15 mai-15 jul-15 set-15 nov-15 jan-16 mar-16

Payroll-deducted personal loans Personal Credit Real estate financing

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SLIDE 15

Credit Market

15

Source: BCB

Non-performing Loans

(%)

1,5 3,0 4,5 6,0 dez/11 jun/12 dez/12 jun/13 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 Total Nonfinancial Corporations Households

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SLIDE 16

Credit Market

16

Source: BCB

Credit Quality & Provisions

1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 mar/14 mai/14 jul/14 set/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16

Nonperforming Portfolio - R$ Bi - left axis Provisions - R$ bi - left axis Provisions (%) - right axis Nonperforming Loans (%) - right axis

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SLIDE 17

Banking Sector

Source: BCB

17

Sources: FMI ; BCB (2)

Capital / Assets

(%)

Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets (%)

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0

Austrália França Índia China Itália Rússia Japão Coreia do Sul EUA Reino Unido África do Sul Canadá Argentina México Brasil (2) Indonésia Turquia Alemanha 11,5 11,0 12,3 12,1 11,8 16,1 15,5 16,7 16,3 16,4

  • 2,0

4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 Common Equity Tier1 Ratio Tier1 Ratio Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets

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SLIDE 18

Banking Sector

18

Net Profit x ROE

(BRL bi) (%)

5 10 15 20 25 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 ´dez/09 jun/10 dez/10 jun/11 dez/11 jun/12 dez/12 jun/13 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15

NP Private Banks NP SO Banks ROE Adjusted ROE

Source: BCB

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SLIDE 19

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 jan/12 jun/12 nov/12 abr/13 set/13 fev/14 jul/14 dez/14 mai/15 R$ Bi

Liquid Assets Stressed Cash Flow Liquidity Ratio (proxy LCR)

Banking Sector

Source: BCB

19

Source: BCB

Long-term liquidity

(Stable Funding Available / Stable Funding Required)

Short-term liquidity

(Liquid Assets / Cash Out on Stress)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 500.000.000 1.000.000.000 1.500.000.000 2.000.000.000 2.500.000.000 3.000.000.000 3.500.000.000 4.000.000.000 4.500.000.000 Stable Funding Available - R$ mil Stable Funding Required - R$ mil Structural Liquidity Ratio (%) - proxy NSFR

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SLIDE 20

Thank You!

alvir.hoffmann@febraban.org.br