Laura M. Baughman President The Trade Partnership Washington, DC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Laura M. Baughman President The Trade Partnership Washington, DC Presentation to the American Wire Producers Association September 27. 2018

CREATING LEVERAGE

• Imposed

ed s steel eel/aluminum t tariffs t to ince ncentivize e U.S. t trading partner ers t to get China to cut cut s steel eel over erca capacity

• Im

Impo posing 10% and nd 25% 25% tariffs o

• n

n U.S. i imports f from Chin China to

• for
• rce changes i

in I IPR a and t technolog logy t transfer p poli

• licies
• Threa

eaten ening Sect ection 232 a 232 act ction o

• n

n motor v veh ehicles es a and nd parts t to

• push C

Canada, Mexico o

• on NAF

AFTA; E Europ

• pe on
• n car

tariffs

• Threa

eaten ening t to

• ter

erminate e NA NAFTA 1 1.0 t 0 to pres ess C Cana nada a and nd Me Mexico co – and C Con

• ngress? --
• - on
• n NAF

AFTA 2 2.0

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN TARIFFS ARE IMPOSED?

PROTECTE TED I INDUSTR TRY: Output UP, employment UP OTHE HER S SECTOR ORS: indirect spending from protected companies and workers INCREASES and jobs elsewhere in economy (suppliers, restaurants) INCREASE

U.S. Winners

DOWNSTR TREAM I M INDUSTR TRIES: Output DECLINES, employment DECLINES OTHE HER S SECTOR ORS: indirect spending from downstream companies and workers DECLINES and jobs elsewhere in the economy (suppliers, restaurants) DECLINE EXPORTI TING I INDUSTR TRIES: Output DECLINES, employment DECLINES OTHER SECTORS: indirect spending from exporting Companies and workers DECLINES, jobs elsewhere in economy (suppliers, restaurants) DECLINE

U.S. Losers GAINS – LOSSES = ???

STEEL/ALUMINUM 232 TARIFFS + RETALIATION

Steel/ eel/alu lum j jobs +26,280 Steel c cons nsum uming ng i indus ustry j jobs bs*

• 91

91,61 614 Oth Other s sectors

• 337

37,111 Total tal n net j t job impacts ts

• 402,4

,445 16 jo job l loss sses for e every st steel/aluminum g gain

* Beverages, pe petroleum/ m/coal pr l products, fabricated me metals ls, mo motor v vehicles a and nd pa parts, o

• ther

transpo portation e n equipme pment nt, non-electrical e equ quipment m machinery, c const struction

• n

CHINA 301 TARIFFS ON $50B + RETALIATION Steel eel/al alum job jobs +2, +2,378 Steel eel c cons nsuming ind ing indus ustry job jobs*

• 30,

0,30 303 Other er s sec ectors

• 105

05,75 751 Total al ne net jo job im impac acts

• 133,676

* * Bevera rages, p , petroleum/coal p products, fabri rica cated m metals, motor vehicl cles a and parts, o , other r transpo portation e n equipme pment nt, non-electrical e equ quipment m machinery, c const struction

• n

CHINA 301 TARIFFS ON $517B + RETALIATION Steel eel/al alum job jobs

• 508

08 Steel eel c cons nsuming ind ing indus ustry job jobs*

• 96,

6,86 863 Other er s sec ectors

• 357,426

426 Total al ne net jo job im impac acts

• 454,

54,796 96

* Beverage ges, p , pet etroleum/ m/coal p products, , fabricated m met etals, m , motor v vehicles es and parts, ,

• t
• ther t

trans nsportation

• n equipment

nt, n non-electrical e equ quipmen ent m machiner ery, , constru ruction

MOTOR VEHICLE & PARTS 232 Trad ade e Par artner nership ip, tar arif iffs o

• nl

nly Total al ne net jo job im impac acts

• 116,871

71 Peter erson, n, tar arif iffs o

• nl

nly Total al ne net jo job im impac acts

• 195,

95,00 000 Peter erson, n, tar arif iffs + + retal aliat iatio ion Total l ne net jo job im impac acts

• 624,

4,00 000

TERMINATING NAFTA 1.0 Steel eel/al alum job jobs

• 6,876

76 Steel eel c cons nsuming ind ing indus ustry job jobs*

• 194,617

17 Other er s sec ectors

• 1,608

608,095 095 Total al ne net jo job im impac acts

• 1,809

809,588 588

* Beverage ges, p , pet etroleum/ m/coal p products, , fabricated m met etals, m , motor v vehicles es and parts, ,

• t
• ther t

trans nsportation

• n equipment

nt, n non-electrical e equ quipmen ent m machiner ery, , constru ruction

CONCLUSIONS

Levera rage i is expensive. How lon w long a are re y you

• u pre

prepared to w wait to se see if i f it wor

• rks?

s?