Launch of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 Rome, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Launch of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025

Rome, Monday, 4 July 2016 Sheikh Zayed Centre FAO Headquarters

Highlights of the Outlook

• Food demand is expected to grow progressively slower

but its composition will change

• Global demand growth will be mainly satisfied through

yield improvements

• With supply and demand growth broadly matched, real

agricultural prices are projected to remain relatively flat

• Food imports into Africa, the Near East and Asia

increasingly important for food security

• We need to do more to meet the SDGs

Diverse consumption trends of major food groups

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Growth 2013/15 to 2025

Food Consumption Population

• Strong demand growth for meat,

fish and dairy products

• Food consumption of cereals

stagnates

• Shift toward livestock products

induces additional need for feed crops, particularly coarse grains and protein meals

• Strong increase in sugar and

vegetable oil consumption

Production growth through intensification and efficiency gains, but regional differences

Yiel d 48% Area 52%

AMERICAS

Yiel d 71% Area 29%

AFRICA & NEAR EAST

Yiel d 91% Area 9%

ASIA & OCEANIA

Yiel d 91% Area 9%

EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA

• Increase in demand projected

to be mainly satisfied through productivity gains

• Large yield gaps in many

developing countries

• Limited scope to increase

agricultural area sustainably

• Slower yield growth expected

in main producing countries

• Prices to remain overall flat, but

to change in relative terms

• Relative price changes reflect

adjustments in the composition

• f demand and differences in

supply conditions

• But need for vigilance - markets

remain subject to shocks that cause volatility and disruptions

Market fundamentals point to stabilisation of real prices

• 500

500 1500 2500 3500 4500 5500

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

USD/T (Meat & Dairy) USD/T (Crops)

Wheat Rice Soybean WMP Beef and Veal

• Volatility from oil prices, economic

growth, exchange rates and yield variations

• Climate change will add to them
• Policy-induced uncertainty not

included but will compound volatility

• A crisis more likely when the

wrong policies compound volatility

There is a substantial risk of a major price swing in the next ten years

80% probability range for maize price

Note: Agriculture and fisheries products included in the Outlook

Trade important for food security

• Agricultural trade expected to

expand, but at about half the rate of the previous decade

• Global exports will be highly

concentrated

• Imports more dispersed, but

China remains critical market

• Increasing food import

dependency of resource poor regions

• 100
• 50

50 100 150

Billions of Constant $2004-06

Regional net trade

Americas Asia Africa Others

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Index (2004-06 Base) Per capita consumption Total consumption Production

Sub-Saharan Africa: Outlook to 2025

• Total agricultural production is

projected to expand by 2.6% p.a., an increasing share will come from improved productivity

• Growth in food demand of more

than 3% p.a. expected, driven by population growth, leaving per capita gains modest

• Need for imports is especially

high for vegetable oils (50%), poultry meat (36%) and sugar (23%), all with an increasing trend

Sub-Saharan Africa: Key actions

9

• Addressing low productivity of agricultural

resources

• Diversification and commodity dependence
• Inclusive development
• Resilience to climate change
• Stable policies and institutions
• Enabling environment for private

investment

• Expansion of intra-regional trade

We must do better!

10

• Outlook maps out a most likely baseline.
• Staying on this path would not eradicate hunger;

but would reduce it from around 800 to 640 million.

• The SDGs can only be achieved if rural poverty,

food security and nutrition, sustainable agriculture and climate change are properly addressed by the global community.

• Outlook confirms that we must do better and

take action now to meet SDG2 by 2030.

Thank you for your attention

For more information: EST-Projections@fao.org (Holger Matthey) TAD.Contact@oecd.org (Hubertus Gay) Or visit our web page: www.agri-outlook.org