Latin America in the post-Baconian age Francisco Sagasti Professor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Latin America in the post-Baconian age Francisco Sagasti Professor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate change and prospects for Latin America in the post-Baconian age Francisco Sagasti Professor Pacfico Business School Universidad del Pacfico Lima, July 11, 2019 Structure of the presentation The Baconian program: Unfolding,

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Climate change and prospects for Latin America in the post-Baconian age

Francisco Sagasti

Professor Pacífico Business School Universidad del Pacífico Lima, July 11, 2019

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Structure of the presentation

  • The Baconian program:
  • Unfolding, deployment and triumph
  • The twilight of Bacons age:
  • Consequences and impact
  • Latin America’s favorable situation:
  • Resources, diversity of diversities
  • Latin American challenges and prospects for the

future

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Twilight of Bacon’s Age

  • Sir Francis Bacon (1561-1626): key figure
  • Baconian program:

– Method: modern science – Purpose: improving the human condition – Direction: indefinite and linear progress – Focus: “Man” – Institutions: research establishments and public support

  • Unfolding (1750-1900); deployment (1900-1975);

triumph (1975-2010); twilight (2010-?)

  • Twilight of Bacon’s age:

– Transitions towards a new age with a new program – But, without rejecting or discarding cumulative advances

  • Central role of collective action and public policies
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Consequences of the Baconian program

  • The success of Bacon’s program, together with the global

expansion of capitalism, has radically altered the human condition during the last four centuries:

  • Population
  • Production
  • Energy
  • Growth expectations
  • Climate change
  • Ecological footprint
  • Inequality
  • Pyrrhic victory? Collapse?
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Consequences of the program: population and production

*Compound annual rate of growth ** 1990 International US dollars Source: Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Development Centre Studies. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264189980-en.

Year Population GDP GDP per cápita

Million Growth* Billion US $** Growth* US $** Growth*

230.8 102.5 444 1000 268.3 0.02 116.8 0.01 435

  • 0.00

1820 1,041.1 0.17 694.4 0.22 667 0.05 1998 5,908.0 0.98 33,726 2.21 5,709 1.21

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Source : Year: 2009 From collection: The Environmental Food Crisis - The Environment's Role in Averting Future Food Crises Cartographer: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal https://www.grida.no/resources/6818

Consequences of the program: population

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Consequences of the program: economic growth

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Consequences of the program: energy

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Source: Bradbrook, G. (2012). Depletion. Street School economics (blog)

Consequences of the program: growth

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Consequences of the program: climate change

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Consequences of the program: climate change

Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2019) - "CO₂ and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas- emissions' [Online Resource]

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Consequences of the program: climate change

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Consequences of the program: climate change

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(Size of countries proportional to their ecological footprint)

Source: Benjamin Benning. 2015. Ecological Footprintsmhttp://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?p=4639

Consequences of the program: ecological footprint

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Fuente: Piketty, T. 2013. Le capital au 21e . http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/fr/capital21c

Inequality between people-1 (billions and billionaires)

Consequences of the program: inequality

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Consequences of the program: inequality

Source: Isabel Ortiz, Matthew Cummins. UNICEF Working Paper: Global Inequality: Beyong the Bottom Billion – Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries. June 15, 2011, http://www.equityforchildren.org/unicef-working-paper-global-inequality-beyong-the-bottom-billion-review-of- income-distribution-in-141-countries/

Inequality between people-2

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“Part IV | World Inequality Report 2018”. World inequality lab – WID – World Inequality Database, 2018. https://wir2018.wid.world/part-4.html.

Global wealth inequality, 1980–2050: China, Europe and the US

Consequences of the program: inequality

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Consequences of the program: inequality

Source: World map indicating the Human Development Index (based on 2017 data, published on September 14, 2018)

Inequalities in the Human Development Index (2017)

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Impacts of the program: collapse?

Source: McKenzie, D. 2012. Boom and Doom: revisiting prophecies of collapse. New Scientist 2846.

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Impacts of the program: collapse?

  • “The probability that civilization as we know it survives

till the end of the twenty-first century is fifty-fifty” Sir Martin Rees

  • “Humanity is on an unsustainable course ... if it is not

changed, it will lead to catastrophes of impressive consequences” James Martin

  • “We are not going to recover the planet we had ... We

have to survive the dangers we can no longer avoid” Bill McKibben

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Impacts of the program: collapse?

  • “This is the first moment in the history of our planet in which

any species, because of its own voluntary actions, has become a danger to itself” Bill Joy

  • “The destructive monster of technology-based capitalism will

not be stopped” Edward O. Wilson

  • “Our current civilization has become dysfunctional ... Unless

unforeseen changes take place, we shall disappear, as has happened with many other species in the long history of life” Amílcar Herrera

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Impacts of the program: collapse?

Combination of:

  • Consequences of the triumph of Bacon’s program
  • Economic systems that privilege consumption and growth
  • Capitalism and its varieties
  • Real socialism

Is unsustainable (Daly’s “Impossibility theorem”)

  • Agenda for the future:

– Rethink and transcend the Baconian program – Explore new conceptions of “progress” and “development” – Design and implement new approaches to public policies (State, market, civil society, academia)

  • We are going to do this from, and for, Latin America
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Latin America’s favorable situation

  • Latin America has privileged material conditions to

face the twilight of Bacon’s age

– Population of adequate size and composition:

  • Population density (urbanization)
  • Dependency rate and demographic dividend
  • Life expectancy and income

– Food production:

  • Biological diversity
  • Cultivable land
  • Fishing potential

– Energy supply (multiple sources) – Water availability (large reserves)

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Latin America: Population structure (density and growth

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Latin America: Population

(Comparative projected population growth)

Source: United Nations Population Division. World Population 2012. New York, 2013.

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Latin America: Population structure

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Latin America: Population

Population structure (dependency ratio)

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Latin America: health and income

Life expectancy at birth and income per capita (2010)

Source: Lindgren, Mattias. 2010. Gapminder World Map. Courtesy of Gapminder Foundation. In “8th Iteration (2012): Science Maps for Kids,” Places & Spaces: Mapping Science, edited by Katy Börner and Michael J. Stamper. http://scimaps.org

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Latin America: health and income

Life expectancy at birth and income per capita (2016)

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Latin America: biodiversity

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Latin America: Arable land (hectares per person)

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Latin America: cropland per person

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Latin America: soil biodiversity

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Latin America: threats to soil biodiversity

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Latin America: food production per capita

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Latin America: Forestry

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América Latina: fisheries catch

25 % 16 % 14 % 11 % 7%

Average participation, percentages 2005–09

Source: Review of the state of world marine fishery resources, FAO Fisheries and aquaculture technical paper 569, 2011

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Latin America: fisheries potential

Source Review of the state of world marine fishery resources, FAO Fisheries and aquaculture technical paper 569, 2011

Area 21 (Atlantic, Northwest) Area 27 (Atlantic, Northeast) Area 31 ( Atlantic, Western Central) Area 34 (Atlantic, Eastern Central)

Area 37 (Mediterranean and Black Sea)

Area 41 (Atlantic, Southwest) Area 47 (Atlantic, Southeast)

…

Area 51 ( Indian Ocean, Western) Area 57 (Indian Ocean, Eastern) Area 61 (Pacific, Northwest) Area 67 (Pacific, Northeast) Area 71 (Pacific, Western Central) Area 77 (Pacific, Eastern Central) Area 81 (Pacific, Southwest) Area 87 (Pacific, Southeast)

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Latin America: energy consumption

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Latin America: oil consumption

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Latin America: electricity from renewable sources

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Latin America: water availability

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Latin America: water availability

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Latin America: water consumption

Source: World Bank (WDI 2010), Sensor Networks, http://www.libelium.com/libelium-images/agua_valencia/graficas_consumo_grande.jpg

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Latin America: water consumption

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Latin America: aquifers recharge

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Latin America: Global distribution of physical water scarcity by major hydrological basin

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Latin America: favorable situation

  • Diversity of diversities (adaptation capacity,

resilience):

– Mineral resources, forest resources, ecosystems – Cultural and ethnic diversity ..., but with similar history and language

  • Social learning processes: rejection of

authoritarianism, insecurity and violence (slow but steady?)

  • Infrastructure flexibility (limited path dependency)
  • Latin America is in a good position to meet the

challenges of the 21st century (beginning of post- Baconian age)

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Latin America: challenges

To lead 21st century transformations, Latin America has to

  • vercome five main challenges:
  • 1. Become conscious of the epochal changes under way and of

the possibilities of the region: understand and accept new situation, explore development options

  • 2. Take into account vulnerabilities that threaten diversity of

diversities

  • 3. Build and consolidate science, technology and innovation

capabilities: advance towards the knowledge society to take advantage of favorable material situation

  • 4. Improve governance and the performance of political leaders:

build efficient and effective democracies

  • 5. Design and implement development strategies and policies

commensurate with the challenges: ensure coherence, efficiency, flexibility, learning and adaptation

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Thank you Francisco Sagasti f.sagastih@up.edu.pe fsagasti@fni.pe www.franciscosagasti.com