Latin America in the post-Baconian age Francisco Sagasti Professor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Latin America in the post-Baconian age Francisco Sagasti Professor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate change and prospects for Latin America in the post-Baconian age Francisco Sagasti Professor Pacfico Business School Universidad del Pacfico Lima, July 13, 2018 Structure of the presentation The Baconian program: Unfolding,

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Climate change and prospects for Latin America in the post-Baconian age

Francisco Sagasti

Professor Pacífico Business School Universidad del Pacífico Lima, July 13, 2018

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Structure of the presentation

  • The Baconian program:
  • Unfolding, deployment and triumph
  • The twilight of Bacons age:
  • Consequences and impact
  • Latin America’s favorable situation
  • Latin American challenges
  • Prospects for livelihoods and employment
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Twilight of Bacon’s Age

  • Sir Francis Bacon (1561-1626): key figure
  • Baconian program:

– Method: modern science – Purpose: improving the human condition – Direction: indefinite and linear progress – Focus: “Man” – Institutions: research establishments and public support

  • Unfolding (1750-1900); deployment (1900-1975);

triumph (1975-2010); twilight (2010-?)

  • Twilight of Bacon’s age:

– Transitions towards a new age with a new program – But, without rejecting or discarding cumulative advance

  • Central role of collective action and public policies
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Consequences of the Baconian program

  • The success of Bacon’s program, together with the global

expansion of capitalism, has radically altered the human condition during the last four centuries:

  • Population
  • Production
  • Energy
  • Growth expectations
  • Climate change
  • Ecological footprint
  • Inequality
  • Pyrrhic victory? Collapse?
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Consequences of the program: population and production

*Compound annual rate of growth ** 1990 International US dollars Source: Maddison, 2005

Year Population GDP GDP per cápita

Million Growth* Billion US $** Growth* US $** Growth*

230.8 102.5 444 1000 268.3 0.02 116.8 0.01 435

  • 0.00

1820 1,041.1 0.17 694.4 0.22 667 0.05 1998 5,908.0 0.98 33,726 2.21 5,709 1.21

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Source :World Bank

Consequences of the program: population

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Murphy, D. J., & Hall, C. S. (2011). Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth. Annals Of The New York Academy Of Sciences, 1219(1), 52-72. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05940.x

Consequences of the program: energy

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Source: Bradbrook, G. (2012). Depletion. Street School economics (blog)

Consequences of the program: growth

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Consequences of the program: climate change

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Consequences of the program: climate change

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(Size of countries proportional to their ecological footprint)

Source: Dorling, Danny, Mark E. J. Newman, Graham Allsopp, Anna Barford, Ben Wheeler, John Pritchard and David Dorling. 2006. Ecological Footprint. Courtesy of Universities of Sheffield and Michigan. In “4th Iteration (2008): Science Maps for Economic Decision-Makers,” Places & Spaces: Mapping Science, edited by Katy Börner and Elisha F. Hardy. http://scimaps.org.

Consequences of the program: ecological footprint

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Fuente: Piketty, T. 2013. Le capital au 21e . http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/fr/capital21c

Inequality between people-1 (billions and billionaires)

Consequences of the program: inequality

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Consequences of the program: inequality

Source: Isabel Ortiz, Matthew Cummins. UNICEF Working Paper: Global Inequality: Beyong the Bottom Billion – Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries. June 15, 2011, http://www.equityforchildren.org/unicef-working-paper-global-inequality-beyong-the-bottom-billion-review-of- income-distribution-in-141-countries/

Inequality between people-2

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Consequences of the program: inequality

Source: World map indicating the Human Development Index (based on 2013 data, published on July 24, 2014)

Inequalities in the Human Development Index (2013)

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Impacts of the program: collapse?

Source: McKenzie, D. 2012. Boom and Doom: revisiting prophecies of collapse. New Scientist 2846.

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Impacts of the program: collapse?

  • “The probability that civilization as we know it survives till the

end of the twenty-first century is fifty-fifty” Sir Martin Rees

  • “Humanity is on an unsustainable course ... if it is not

changed, it will lead to catastrophes of impressive consequences” James Martin

  • “We are not going to recover the planet we had ... We have to

survive the dangers we can no longer avoid” Bill McKibben

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Impacts of the program: collapse?

  • “This is the first moment in the history of our planet in which

any species, because of its own voluntary actions, has become a danger to itself” Bill Joy

  • “The destructive monster of technology-based capitalism will

not be stopped” Edward O. Wilson

  • “Our current civilization has become dysfunctional ... Unless

unforeseen changes take place, we shall disappear, as has happened with many other species in the long history of life” Amílcar Herrera

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Impacts of the program: collapse?

Combination of:

  • Consequences of the triumph of Bacon’s program
  • Economic systems that privilege consumption and growth
  • Capitalism and its varieties
  • Real socialism

Is unsustainable (Daly’s “Impossibility theorem”)

  • Agenda for the future:

– Rethink and transcend the Baconian program – Explore new conceptions of “progress” and “development” – Design and implement new approaches to public policies (State, market, civil society, academia)

  • We are going to do this from, and for, Latin America
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Latin America’s favorable situation

  • Latin America has privileged material conditions to

face the twilight of Bacon’s age

– Population of adequate size and composition:

  • Population density (urbanization)
  • Dependency rate and demographic dividend
  • Life expectancy and income

– Food production:

  • Biological diversity
  • Cultivable land
  • Fishing potential

– Energy supply (multiple sources) – Water availability (large reserves)

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Latin America: Population

Population structure (density and growth)

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Latin America: Population

(Comparative projected population growth)

Source: United Nations Population Division. World Population 2012. New York, 2013.

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Latin America: Population

Population structure (dependency ratio)

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Latin America: health and income

Life expectancy at birth and income per capita (2010)

Source: Lindgren, Mattias. 2010. Gapminder World Map. Courtesy of Gapminder Foundation. In “8th Iteration (2012): Science Maps for Kids,” Places & Spaces: Mapping Science, edited by Katy Börner and Michael J. Stamper. http://scimaps.org

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Latin America: biodiversity

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Latin America: cultivable land per capita

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Latin America: food production per capita

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América Latina: fisheries catch

25 % 16 % 14 % 11 % 7%

Average participation, percentages 2005–09

Source: Review of the state of world marine fishery resources, FAO Fisheries and aquaculture technical paper 569, 2011

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Latin America: fisheries potential

Source Review of the state of world marine fishery resources, FAO Fisheries and aquaculture technical paper 569, 2011

Area 21 (Atlantic, Northwest) Area 27 (Atlantic, Northeast) Area 31 ( Atlantic, Western Central) Area 34 (Atlantic, Eastern Central)

Area 37 (Mediterranean and Black Sea)

Area 41 (Atlantic, Southwest) Area 47 (Atlantic, Southeast)

…

Area 51 ( Indian Ocean, Western) Area 57 (Indian Ocean, Eastern) Area 61 (Pacific, Northwest) Area 67 (Pacific, Northeast) Area 71 (Pacific, Western Central) Area 77 (Pacific, Eastern Central) Area 81 (Pacific, Southwest) Area 87 (Pacific, Southeast)

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Latin America: energy consumption

Energy consumption per capita, 2010

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Latin America: oil consumption

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Latin America: water availability

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Latin America: water consumption

Source: World Bank (WDI 2010), Sensor Networks, http://www.libelium.com/libelium-images/agua_valencia/graficas_consumo_grande.jpg

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Latin America: aquifers recharge

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Latin America: favorable situation

  • Diversity of diversities (adaptation capacity, resilience):

– Mineral resources, forest resources, ecosystems – Cultural and ethnic diversity ..., but with similar history and language

  • Social learning processes: rejection of

authoritarianism, insecurity and violence (slow but steady?)

  • Infrastructure flexibility (limited path dependency)
  • Latin America is in a good position to meet the

challenges of the 21st century (beginning of post- Baconian age)

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Latin America: challenges

  • To lead 21st century transformations, Latin America has to
  • vercome four main challenges:
  • 1. Become conscious of the epochal changes under way and
  • f the possibilities of the region: understand and accept

new situation, explore development options

  • 2. Build and consolidate science, technology and innovation

capabilities: advance towards the knowledge society

  • 3. Improve governance and the performance of political

leaders: build efficient and effective democracies

  • 4. Design and implement development strategies and

policies commensurate with the challenges: ensure coherence, efficiency, flexibility, learning and adaptation

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Prospects for livelihoods and employment in the transition to the post-Baconian age: a Latin American viewpoint

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Latin America: livelihoods and employment

  • A livelihood is more than a “job”: means to access part of

the social product to survive and realize human potential

  • A “job” and “steady employment” are rather recent social

inventions, dating from the Industrial Revolution, expansion of capitalism, (200-years old)

  • Through history most people had to create their own

livelihoods, only in mid-20th century “jobs” became reality for many in rich countries, and livelihoods equated with “jobs”

  • This was, and is not, the case in poorer parts of the

world: only a minority has steady employment: self- employment is the norm for two thirds of the Latin American labor force

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Latin America: livelihoods and employment

  • Livelihoods are changing; upheavals in: technology,

demography, environment and evolution

– Technology advances collapsed time and distance, created an avalanche of data and information, allowed greater interconnections, opened possibility of robotics and artificial intelligence replacing human labor and skills – Demographic shifts altered demand and supply of goods and services; aging populations and fertility decline vs. high population growth and migration; changes in needs and possibilities to satisfy them – Environmental constraints place limits on human activities; climate change, biodiversity loss, deterioration of life- supporting ecosystems – Human evolution: possibility of conscious direction, genetic modification, artificial life, augmented humans

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Latin America: livelihoods and employment

  • Self-employment is also becoming the norm in rich

countries

– Automation is reducing many blue and white collar jobs – Part-time jobs are expanding; career changes are more frequent; people with multiple jobs are increasing – Sharing economy (Uber, Airbnb) increases possibilities for self- generated livelihoods – Information and communications technologies provide infrastructure to make entrepreneurial explosion viable

  • Need to decouple social protection and services from

having a steady job

– Provide basic education, health, transport, housing, continuous learning and minimum pension to all – Redesign wealth and income redistribution schemes

  • Institutional innovations are essential in transition to

post-Baconian age

– As Latin Americans say: “Work to live, do not live to work”

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Thank you Francisco Sagasti f.sagastih@up.edu.pe fsagasti@fni.pe www.franciscosagasti.com