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Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region By Robert Clifford Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth Corporation and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal

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By Robert Clifford

Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston A joint project of Commonwealth Corporation and New England Public Policy Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

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Motivation

  • Promote better public policy by conducting objective

research and analysis of regional economic/policy issues.

  • Understand the long‐term labor force challenges facing

the regional labor markets in Massachusetts.

  • Provide detailed data on labor supply and demand

trends to support workforce development policy discussions at a local level.

  • Build off the labor market work of Harrington and Fogg

(2008) and the demographics research of Sasser Modestino (2009, 2010).

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 2

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The Cape & Islands Region

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 3

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Summary

  • The Cape & Islands was the hardest hit labor market in the

Great Recession and has been the slowest to recover.

  • The region was one of only two to lose population in the past

decade, and was the only region to have its immigrant population decline in the Great Recession.

  • Already having the oldest labor force in the state at the start of

the decade, the age of the region’s labor force increased dramatically in the past decade due to the aging of the baby boomers and a declining number of younger workers.

  • The Cape & Islands has a limited number of higher education

institutions to meet the region’s demand for educated labor.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 4

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Outline

  • Labor Market Performance
  • Labor Supply
  • Labor Demand
  • The Pipeline: Educational Supply of

Post‐Secondary Degrees

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 5

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Labor Market Performance

  • National and State Employment Trends
  • Performance of Regional Labor Markets
  • Employment Trends by Industry in

the Cape & Islands and Massachusetts

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 6

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Massachusetts is still far below its peak employment levels

  • f the early 2000’s.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 Q1‐2000 Q1‐2001 Q1‐2002 Q1‐2003 Q1‐2004 Q1‐2005 Q1‐2006 Q1‐2007 Q1‐2008 Q1‐2009 Q1‐2010 Q1‐2011 Q1‐2012

Total Non‐Agricultural Employment, Q1‐2000 to Q2‐2012

NBER Recession United States Massachusetts

Through Q2‐2012

Index 2000=1

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.

7

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After experiencing strong employment growth to start the decade, the Cape & Islands was the hardest hit region in the Great Recession.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

3.4% ‐5.2% 1.1%

‐8.0% ‐6.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

Total Growth Rates in Employment

Q1 2001‐Q1 2008 Q4 2007‐Q4 2009 Q4 2009‐Q4 2011

Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development (EOLWD), ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

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Leisure & Hospitality is a major sector of employment in the region, far exceeding state and national shares.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

25.8% 27.2% 24.3% 21.8% 18.3% 20.7% 9.4% 15.2% 13.6% 17.8% 9.8% 10.5% 2.1% 7.9% 9.1% 4.0% 6.5% 5.9% 6.1% 4.3% 3.5% 4.7% 4.1% 5.8% 6.3% 3.9% 4.5% 2.0% 2.8% 2.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Cape & Islands Massachusetts United States

Employment Distribution by Supersector, Q4 2011

Information Construction Other services Government Financial Activities Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Trade, Transportation & Utilities Education & Health Services

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202 and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

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Construction and Health Care & Social Assistance accounted for a majority of the regions employment growth between recessions.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

‐50.0% ‐40.0% ‐30.0% ‐20.0% ‐10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Administrative & Support Services Other Services Wholesale Trade Government Educational Services Professional & Technical Services Accommodation & Food Services Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Financial Activities Utilities Manufacturing Management of Companies & Enterprises

Employment Changes, Q1‐2001 to Q1‐2008

Massachusetts Cape & Islands

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202.

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Health Care & Social Assistance continued to add jobs during the Great Recession.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

‐50.0% ‐40.0% ‐30.0% ‐20.0% ‐10.0% 0.0% 10.0%

Utilities Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation & Food Services Government Transportation & Warehousing Other Services Educational Services Professional & Technical Services Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Financial Activities Information Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Administrative & Support Services Construction Management of Companies & Enterprises

Employment Changes, Q4‐2007 to Q4‐2009

Massachusetts Cape & Islands

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202.

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In the recovery, half of the industries in the Cape & Islands have added jobs.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

‐20.0% ‐15.0% ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

Wholesale Trade Other Services Professional & Technical Services Administrative & Support Services Transportation & Warehousing Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Accommodation & Food Services Management of Companies & Enterprises Educational Services Government Retail Trade Manufacturing Information Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Financial Activities Utilities

Employment Changes, Q4‐2009 to Q4‐2011

Massachusetts Cape & Islands

Sources: Massachusetts EOLWD, ES-202.

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Labor Supply

  • Residential Population Changes and

Characteristics

  • Nativity Status, Age, and Education of the

Civilian Labor Force

  • Trends and Characteristics of the Unemployed
  • Commuting Patterns

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 13

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Following modest population growth early in the decade, the Cape & Islands experienced a steep decline in population.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

0.3% ‐1.0%

‐1.5% ‐1.0% ‐0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

Total Residential Population Growth

Annual Growth Rate 2000 to 2005‐2007 Annual Growth Rate 2005‐2007 to 2008‐2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS) data files, 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Micro Sample (PUMS) data files.

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Growth in immigrant and minority populations was not enough to

  • ffset losses of native born and white, non-Hispanic residents.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

Demographic Characteristics of the Cape & Islands

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2000 2008‐2010 Absolute Change Annual Growth Rate Resident Population 240,708 237,569 ‐3,139 ‐0.1% Gender Male 115,145 113,209 ‐1,936 ‐0.2% Female 125,563 124,360 ‐1,203 ‐0.1% Nativity Native Born 226,143 219,684 ‐6,459 ‐0.3% Immigrant 14,565 17,885 3,320 2.3% Race/Ethnicity White, non‐Hispanic 223,758 218,496 ‐5,262 ‐0.3% Black, non‐Hispanic 3,415 5,083 1,668 4.5% Asian, non‐Hispanic 1,797 2,572 775 4.1% Hispanic 3,260 4,984 1,724 4.8% Other race, non‐Hispanic 8,478 6,434 ‐2,044 ‐3.0%

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Following strong growth in the immigrant labor, the Cape & Islands experienced a drop in immigrants in recent years.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

1.0% 0.4% 7.8% ‐6.0% ‐3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% Cape & Islands Massachusetts United States

Civilian Labor Force Growth by Nativity Status, 2000 to 2005‐2007

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‐0.8% ‐0.6% ‐2.9% ‐6.0% ‐3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% Cape & Islands Massachusetts United States

Civilian Labor Force Growth by Nativity Status, 2005‐2007 to 2008‐2010

Total Native Born Immigrant

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files, and 2005-2007 and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

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The Cape & Islands has the oldest labor force of all regional labor markets, far exceeding the Massachusetts labor force.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

10.3% 10.0% 12.9% 13.2% 15.2% 14.2% 17.2% 13.3% 23.3% 20.2% 22.7% 21.5% 26.2% 20.3% 27.0% 22.0% 26.8% 22.3% 25.6% 26.3% 22.4% 23.9% 21.8% 23.3% 14.0% 21.7% 10.8% 15.8% 10.2% 14.7% 6.7% 8.4% 3.6% 4.7% 3.3% 4.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2000 Cape & Islands 2008‐2010 2000 Massachusetts 2008‐2010 2000 United States 2008‐2010

Age Distribution of the Civilian Labor Force

Age 65+ Age 55‐64 Age 45‐54 Age 35‐44 Age 25‐34 Age 16‐24

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The aging labor force was the result of a combination of strong growth among older cohorts and declines in younger cohorts.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

0.0% ‐2.4% ‐2.4% 0.7% 5.3% 3.0% 1.3% ‐0.6% ‐1.3% 1.7% 5.4% 3.9%

‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Age 16‐24 Age 25‐34 Age 35‐44 Age 45‐54 Age 55‐64 Age 65+

Annual Growth in the Civilian Labor Force by Age, 2000 to 2008‐2010

Massachusetts Cape & Islands

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

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The Cape & Islands labor force has larger shares with Bachelor’s Degrees, Associate’s Degrees, and Some college than the state.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

8.9% 5.3% 11.5% 8.7% 15.5% 11.8% 24.7% 24.5% 24.3% 23.5% 26.9% 26.3% 22.0% 22.0% 19.1% 18.7% 23.9% 24.0% 10.0% 9.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.2% 8.3% 21.5% 24.8% 22.3% 24.4% 17.2% 19.1% 12.9% 14.4% 14.8% 16.8% 9.4% 10.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2000 Cape & Islands 2008‐2010 2000 Massachusetts 2008‐2010 2000 United States 2008‐2010

Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force

Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some College, no degree High School Less than High School

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The Cape & Islands needs to attract more workers under age 45 in order to avoid potential shortfalls in the future.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Less than High School High School Some College Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree or more

Age 55‐64 Age 45‐54 Age 35‐44 Age 25‐34

Educational Attainment of the Civilian Labor Force Population in the Cape & Islands

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As the Cape & Islands employment gains have trailed in the recovery, its unemployment rate has started to exceed the state average.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Unemployment Rates, 2000 to 2011

United States Massachusetts Cape & Islands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Massachusetts EOLWD, Labor Force and Unemployment Rates.

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The unemployed in the Cape & Islands are disproportionally younger and have lower levels of educational attainment.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

10.0% 15.3% 13.3% 17.2% 20.3% 18.4% 26.3% 23.7% 21.7% 18.3% 8.4% 7.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Civilian Labor Force Unemployed

Age Distribution

Age 65+ Age 55‐64 Age 45‐54 Age 35‐44 Age 25‐34 Age 16‐24

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

5.3% 12.8% 24.5% 27.4% 22.0% 23.6% 9.1% 9.4% 24.8% 15.8% 14.4% 11.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Civilian Labor Force Unemployed

Education Distribution

Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some College, no degree High School Less than High School

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The Cape & Islands has limited ties with other labor markets, with a substantial majority of the region’s workers also living in the region.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

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Number Percent of Total

Total number of employed persons living in Cape & Islands… 112,526 100.0%

…that work in:

Cape & Islands 97,705 86.8%

Southeast 6,770 6.0% Boston/Metro North 3,063 2.7% Metro South/West 1,922 1.7% Other parts of Massachusetts 837 0.7% Rhode Island 507 0.5% Other places outside Massachusetts 1,722 1.5%

Total number of persons working in Cape & Islands… 108,074 100.0%

…that live in:

Cape & Islands 97,705 90.4%

Southeast 7,195 6.7% Boston/Metro North 357 0.3% Metro South/West 605 0.6% Other parts of Massachusetts 501 0.5% Rhode Island 357 0.3% Other places outside Massachusetts 1,354 1.3%

Net in‐commuting ‐4,452 ‐

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Labor Demand

  • Educational Attainment of Employed
  • Educational Attainment and Composition of

Industries and Occupations

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 24

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More than two-thirds of the workers in the Cape & Islands have some form of post-secondary education.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

9.2% 5.3% 10.6% 7.6% 14.4% 10.7% 25.8% 25.6% 24.0% 22.7% 26.7% 25.7% 22.8% 21.8% 19.2% 18.6% 24.1% 24.0% 10.0% 8.8% 8.1% 8.2% 7.3% 8.5% 20.6% 25.2% 22.9% 25.4% 17.7% 19.9% 11.5% 13.2% 15.1% 17.5% 9.7% 11.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2000 Cape & Islands 2008‐2010 2000 Massachusetts 2008‐2010 2000 United States 2008‐2010

Educational Attainment of Individuals Employed in the Region

Master's degree or more Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some College, no degree High School Less than High School

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A growing number of employees have a Bachelor's Degree or higher, while the number of employees with lower levels of education declined.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

‐5.7% 0.1% ‐0.3% ‐1.2% 2.4% 1.7% ‐3.3% ‐0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0%

‐7.0% ‐6.0% ‐5.0% ‐4.0% ‐3.0% ‐2.0% ‐1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

Less than High School High School Some College, no degree Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree or more Massachusetts Cape & Islands

Annual Growth in the Employed by Education, 2000 to 2008‐2010

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census PUMS data files and 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

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Most industries in the region employ larger shares of workers with some form of post-secondary education relative to Massachusetts.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

19.5% 41.9% 37.0% 51.1% 39.6% 30.9% 27.6% 31.9% 41.0% 27.2% 35.4% 17.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Services Construction Educational Attainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in the Cape & Islands

23.0% 42.1% 52.9% 56.5% 33.2% 33.1% 30.4% 27.6% 43.8% 24.8% 16.7% 16.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Services Construction High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher Educational Attainment of Employees by Selected Major Industries in Massachusetts

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This pattern persists across occupations, although the difference in post-secondary educational attainment is not as large in some cases.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2008-2010 ACS PUMS data files.

6.2% 31.1% 44.6% 54.0% 33.5% 31.0% 29.3% 32.1% 60.3% 37.9% 26.1% 13.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Sales Food Preparation & Serving Construction & Extraction Educational Attainment of Employees by Selected Occupations in the Cape & Islands

6.4% 31.5% 57.9% 64.0% 29.9% 31.0% 30.2% 27.2% 63.8% 37.5% 11.8% 8.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Sales Food Preparation & Serving Construction & Extraction High School Degree or Less Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher Educational Attainment of Employees by Selected Occupation in Massachusetts

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The Pipeline: Educational Supply of Post-Secondary Degrees

  • Enrollment Patterns
  • Degree Completions
  • List of Institutions by Degree Type
  • Major Fields of Study by Degree Type

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 29

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Enrollment growth in the region was largely full-time and at two- and four-year institutions over the past decade.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

0.7% NA 8.1% ‐0.5% 4.7% ‐7.8% ‐10.0% ‐8.0% ‐6.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Cape & Islands Massachusetts United States Cape & Islands Massachusetts United States

Annual Growth in Enrollments, 2000 to 2010

Less‐than‐Two‐Year Institutions Two‐Year Institutions Four‐Year Institutions

Part‐Time Enrollment

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

Full‐Time Enrollment

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The growth of certificate and degree completions in the Cape & Islands exceeded both state and national trends.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

15.2% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Cape & Islands Massachusetts United States

Annual Growth in Completions, 2000 to 2010

Certificates Associate's Degrees Bachelor's Degrees

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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There were only five higher education institutions granting certificates and degrees in the Cape & Islands in 2010.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Institution Type Public or Private Degrees Awarded Share of Degree Type Completed in Region Certificates Empire Beauty School‐Hyannis < Two Years Private 102 39.4% Cape Cod Community College Two Year Public 97 37.5% Upper Cape Cod Regional Vocational Technical School <Two Years Public 50 19.3% Associate's Cape Cod Community College Two Year Public 432 100.0% ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Bachelor's Massachusetts Maritime Academy Four Year Public 185 95.9% National Graduate School of Quality Management Four Year Private 8 4.1% ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

Top Institutions Granting Certificates and Degrees in the Cape & Islands in 2010

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Services and Health Sciences have consistently accounted for the two largest fields of study for Certificate completions.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Science & Mathematics Legal Engineering & Computer Sciences Health Sciences Services

Annual Certificate Completions by Top Majors in the Cape & Islands, 2000 to 2010

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences is the most common major for Associate’s Degree, though it has declined in recent years.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

100 200 300 400 500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Education Services Business Health Sciences Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences

Annual Associate’s Degree Completions by Top Majors in the Cape & Islands. 2000 to 2010

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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Engineering & Computer Sciences is the largest field of study for Bachelor’s Degrees in the region; mostly in Marine Engineering.

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

50 100 150 200 250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Science & Mathematics Business Services Engineering & Computer Sciences

Annual Bachelor’s Degree Completions by Top Majors in the Cape & Islands, 2000 to 2010

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Post-Secondary Educational Data System.

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Summary

  • The Great Recession hit the Cape & Islands harder than any
  • ther regional labor market and it has been slow to recover.
  • A shrinking population, an aging workforce, and the continued

loss of younger workers will force the region to confront demographic challenges sooner than other regions.

  • With a limited number of higher education institutions to

meet the region’s demand for educated labor the Cape & Islands will need to find a way to attract and retain workers.

  • Given such trends, what should be done to ensure the future

economic vitality of the Cape & Islands moving forward?

December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region 36

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December 18, 2012 Labor Market Trends in the Cape & Islands Region

Thank You

Robert.Clifford@bos.frb.org www.bostonfed.org/neppc