KIMCOS 2020 VISION INVESTOR Presentation Third Quarter 2016 SAFE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
KIMCOS 2020 VISION INVESTOR Presentation Third Quarter 2016 SAFE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
KIMCOS 2020 VISION INVESTOR Presentation Third Quarter 2016 SAFE HARBOR The statements in this presentation, including targets and assumptions, state the Companys and managements hopes, intentions, beliefs, expectations or projections
The statements in this presentation, including targets and assumptions, state the Company’s and management’s hopes, intentions, beliefs, expectations or projections of the future and are forward-looking statements. It is important to note that the Company’s actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations include the key assumptions contained within this presentation, general economic conditions, local real estate conditions, increases in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, increases in operating costs and real estate taxes. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements is contained from time to time in the Company’s SEC filings, including but not limited to the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K. Copies of each filing may be obtained from the Company or the SEC.
SAFE HARBOR
Suburban Square, Philadelphia, PA Cover: Corsica Square, Miami, FL
3
KIMCO’S 2020 VISION
High-quality assets, tightly clustered in major metro markets that provide multiple growth levers Increase net asset value (NAV) through redevelopment, select ground-up development and active investment management Maintain a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility, on a path to A-/ A3 credit rating
PORTFOLIO QUALITY NAV CREATION FINANCIAL STRENGTH
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10.3% 9.5% $0.64 $0.72 $0.76 $0.84 $0.90 $0.96 $1.02
1958 – Founded by Milton Cooper & Marty Kimmel 1991 – IPO that launched the “Modern REIT Era” 2006 – Named to the S&P 500 Index
- 534 U.S. properties totaling 86M square feet in 35 states
and Puerto Rico
- Total Enterprise Value – $18.2 billion
KIMCO’S HISTORY
TSR Since IPO1 Dividend Growth
KIM DJIA S&P 500
13.4% 11/29/91 – 9/30/16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Information as of 9/30/2016
1 Source: Bloomberg 2 Quarterly dividend annualized
4
2017
$1.08* $1.082
CASE FOR OPEN-AIR REAL ESTATE
Today’s Market
1 Green Street Advisors January 2016 2 CoStar Group, “The CoStar Retail Report: National Retail Market” Third Quarter 2016 3 RBC Capital Markets, “Retail REITs: July 2016 National Retailer Demand Monthly (NRDM)” July 2016
Shopping Center Supply Growth (GLA)1
New Supply Near 38-Year Low
Planned Retailer Store Openings3
(in thousands)
High Demand
70 80 90 60 50 40
- More than 79,272 store openings scheduled over the next
two years(3)
- Pure-play online retail opening physical stores
- Discounters and off-price concepts are increasing store count
5
Next 24 months Next 12 months 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
U.S. retail market occupancy increased with net absorption totaling 43.1M sf during 3Q162
Ross Stores $5 TJX $13 Sears $27 JC Penney $19 Nordstrom $15 Macy's $21 Ross Stores $26 TJX $49 Sears $1 Nordstrom $9 Macy’s $11
Source: Bloomberg
SWEET SPOT OF RETAILING
Market Cap ($B): Off-Price Retailers vs. Department Stores
Off-Price Total:
$18B
Department Stores Total:
$85B
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2007 3Q, 2016
Off-Price Total:
$75B
Department Stores Total:
$26B
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
Riverplace, Jacksonville, FL
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
Highly Concentrated in Major Metropolitan Markets
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Seattle Portland San Francisco Sacramento San Jose Los Angeles Orange County San Diego Phoenix Denver Minneapolis/St. Paul
- St. Louis
Chicago Dallas Austin Pittsburgh Houston Tampa Atlanta Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Orlando Charlotte Boston New York Philadelphia Baltimore Washington D.C. Raleigh-Durham
3.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1%
As of 9/30/2016
SCALE: Approximately 8,900 leases with 4,100 tenants STABILITY: Well staggered lease maturity; averages ~8% of GLA each year for next 10 years QUALITY: ~55% of ABR from the top 50 tenants is attributed to tenants with investment grade credit ratings SECURITY: Single tenant exposure no more than 3.4% of total ABR; low ABR with strong mark to market upside
Tenant Diversity
Top Tenants % of ABR – Only 15 tenants with an ABR exposure greater than 1.0%
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
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Necessity Based Goods and Services
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
10
15% Grocery/ Warehouse Clubs 12% Restaurants 9% Service 8% Off-Price 5% Other – Internet Resistant 3% Health Clubs/ Fitness 2% Medical
Internet Resistant 54%
% of ABR
Omni-Channel Players 41%
Internet Vulnerable 5%
10% Home Improvement/ Home Goods 7% Apparel/ Accessories 6% Sporting Goods/ Hobbies 5% Department Stores 5% Pharmacy/ Personal Care 5% Other – Omni Channel 3% Banking/ Finance 2% Electronics 2% Office Supply Stores 1% Books
% of ABR % of ABR
72% of ABR
from Grocery Anchored Centers
1.1% 2.5% 3.8% 3.3% 3.1% 93.1% 93.9% 94.9% 95.7% 95.8%
3Q16 4Q15 4Q14 4Q13 4Q12 4Q11
3.6% 27.8% 15.6% 19.5% 25.0%
Multi-Year Highs and Continued Growth in Operating Metrics
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
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Annual New Leasing Spreads
3Q16 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 3Q16 4Q15 4Q14 4Q13 4Q12 4Q11 3Q16 2015 2014 2013 2012 $14.46 $13.74 $12.99 $12.58 $11.91
95.1%
2011
Occupancy
$11.91 $12.58 $12.99 $13.74 $14.46
Rent Per Square Foot
26.6% $14.94
Annual Same Property NOI Growth
3Q16 4Q15 4Q14 4Q13 4Q12 4Q11
3.3%
Note: All figures are at Kimco’s share
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
Quality Leads to Multiple Growth Levers NOI Growth Walk Through 2020
85 -110 bps 100 -150 bps 110 -160 bps 140 -165 bps
435 -585 bps
Ground-Up Development
Targeted Annual Growth Rate
Redevelopment Leasing & Value Creation Organic Growth (Rent Bumps)
12
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
Building Blocks of NOI Growth
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1 2015 is based on U.S. portfolio at 12/31/15 2 Assumes proceeds from sales used to pay down debt 3 Acquisition NOI in excess of dispositions
U.S. Portfolio 2020E 2015 BASE 1
Rent Spreads/ Lease-up/ Value Creation Redevelopment Pipeline Net Acquisitions3
$935M
$1.2B $10M $50M
Ground-Up Development
$55M $80M
Organic Growth
$65M
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
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Growth through Leasing & Value Creation
Progress to Date The Path to 90% occupancy
- Improved small shop ABR = $26.02 psf
- Small shop spreads for last four quarters
- New Leases = +11%
- Renewals & Options = +8%
- Deal and occupancy bounties
- Operator portfolio reviews
- Targeting of service-oriented tenants
81.8% 83.9% 84.7% 87.0% 88.0% 89.2% 90.0%
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 Goal
Small Shop Occupancy
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
Unmatched Mark to Market Opportunities Top 10 Core Markets 24
sites 5% ABR
170K
Population
Anchor Mark
to Market
14
sites 2% ABR
119K
Population
54
sites 10% ABR
161K
Population
+27% +30% +58% 13
sites 4% ABR
135K
Population
+48% 65
sites 12% ABR
189K
Population
+64% 10
sites 2% ABR
87K
Population
+30% 12
sites 4% ABR
94K
Population
+40% 72
sites 16% ABR
102K
Population
+89% 9
sites 2% ABR
66K
Population
+14% 29
sites 5% ABR
148K
Population
+84%
Chicago San Francisco, Sacramento, San Jose
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Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego Phoenix Dallas Houston New York
Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington D.C.
Raleigh-Durham Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach
Anchor Mark
to Market
*ABR is defined as Annual Base Rent
$12.53 $15.50 $14.42 $15.56 $18.51 $9.28 $11.27 $10.05 $10.51 $11.65 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20
2013 Actual 2014 Actual 2015 Actual 2016-18E 2019E & After
PORTFOLIO QUALITY
Growth through Leasing & Value Creation
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Anchor Lease Spreads/Mark To Market
- Mark to Market Spread on Anchor Leases: +59%
- 82 Naked Leases1 expiring through 2018 totaling 1.5M sf
- 5 Kmart Leases expiring through 2018: 362% market upside
- Actual anchor spreads for 1H16 were +46%
- Total Average RPSF up 30% since 2010
New Rent Expiring Rent Projected Rent
$ABR/SF
+35% +38% +44% +48% +60%
1 Naked Leases are defined as leases with no remaining options
NAV CREATION
Crossroads Plaza, Raleigh, NC
NAV CREATION: REDEVELOPMENT
Highest and Best Use
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Total Pipeline | $3.0B+
(beyond 2020)
Shadow: ~$2.0B+
(through 2020)
Current: ~$1.0B+
Incremental Return: 8%-13%
- Mixed-use densification options:
–
Partner with best in class developer
–
Ground Lease
–
Sell
$550M
Value Creation
$80M
Projected NOI
$XXX M
NAV CREATION: REDEVELOPMENT
Growth through Redevelopment
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Note: Numbers are represented in gross terms.
$42 $47 $118 $135 $190 $225 $225 $225
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
$250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0
Spending ($M)
NAV CREATION
Growth through Selective Ground-up Development
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Pipeline
$740M
2015-2020
Dania Pointe, Dania Beach, FL
Development Approach
- Retailer demand-driven
- Building additional concentration
- Build to own
Risk Management
- ~75% Pre-leased to build
- Phased construction
- Experienced team
Projected ROIC
7%-9%
NAV CREATION
Redevelopment Site Development Site
NOI metrics are pro-rata
1Before planned acquisitions
Evolution of Top 10 Kimco Assets Through NOI Growth
21 1 Westlake S.C. (San Francisco) 2 Oakwood Plaza (Ft. Lauderdale) 3 The District @ Tustin Legacy (Orange County) 4 Mesa Riverview (Phoenix) 5 Suburban Square (Philadelphia) 6 Towson Place (Baltimore) 7 The Marketplace at Factoria (Seattle) 8 Crossroads Plaza (Raleigh-Durham) 9 Dulles Town Crossing (Washington D.C.) 10 Christown Spectrum (Phoenix)
2016 20201 $99M NOI (11% of Total)
1 Dania Pointe (Ft. Lauderdale) 2 Westlake S.C. (San Francisco) 3 The Boulevard (Staten Island) 4 Suburban Square (Philadelphia) 5 The District @ Tustin Legacy (Orange County) 6 Oakwood Plaza (Florida) 7 Mesa Riverview (Phoenix) 8 Pentagon Centre (Washington D.C.) 9 Grand Parkway (Houston) 10 Crossroads Plaza (Raleigh-Durham)
$152M NOI (15% of Total)
Growth through Active Asset Management
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Plaza Paseo, Albuquerque, NM
Maintain Conservative Capital Structure
- Assets with above average risk
- Assets with limited growth potential
- Secondary markets
- Core markets where Kimco has scale/ density
- Asset/ tenant quality
- NAV impact
- NOI growth potential
- Redevelopment and value creation potential
Acquisition Criteria Disposition Criteria
Airport Plaza, Farmingdale, NY
NAV CREATION
- Improved Occupancy
Reflects transactions since Investor Day 2010 through 6/30/2016. Note: Demographics are weighted by pro-rata ABR within a 3-mile radius
ACQUIRED 202 DISPOSED OF 349
Assets that reflect our 2020 Vision Non-Strategic Assets
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NAV CREATION
Growth through Active Asset Management
- Stronger Strategic Markets
- Improved Demographics
+540bps Pro-rata Occupancy +58% Pro-rata ABR/sq. ft. +28% Average Household Income +20% Population
551 412 191 142 60.8% 67.5% 80.5% 84.7% 24
NAV CREATION
Growth through Simplification JV Site Count
Reduced by 74%
Consolidated NOI %
Increased by 39%
2010 2013 2015 3Q16 2010 2013 2015 3Q16
FINANCIAL STRENGTH
Davidson Commons, Charlotte, NC
2020 VISION – BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH
Strong liquidity position; $1.75B available from unsecured line of credit Increase unencumbered asset pool; 362 assets as of 3Q16 Lower Net Debt/Recurring EBITDA leverage levels
- Consolidated 5.0x – 5.5x
- Pro rata (including preferreds) 6.4x – 6.9x
Fixed Charge Coverage 3.0x+ Committed to strong investment grade ratings S&P: BBB+ | Moody’s: Baa1 | Fitch: BBB+
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Extended WAVG debt maturity profile (3Q2015 - 4.3yrs; 3Q2016 - 8.9yrs) 26
52% 28% 12% 6% 2% 67% 21% 7% 4% 1%
STRONG CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Since Investor Day 2013, refinanced $3.2B of maturing debt at significantly lower rates & extended average debt maturity using a 30-year bond ATM program – Issued 9.8M shares; generated net proceeds
- f $285.1M
Unsecured Debt Preferred Stock Non-controlling Interest Common Equity
Today
Total Enterprise Value:
$10.6B
Investor Day 2010
Mortgage Debt
As of 9/30/2016
Total Enterprise Value:
$18.2B
27
300 600 900 1,200
Debt in Millions 300 600 900 1,200
Debt in Millions
28
1Proforma includes the subsequent issuance of 7-year $400M 2.7% and 30-year $350M 4.125% Notes and the
payoff of $400M of the term loan, $225M of line of credit and $55M of mortgage debt maturing in Q1, 2017 *Weighted average Note: Percentages are annual maturities of total debt stack
WELL-STAGGERED DEBT MATURITIES1
Consolidated Debt
9% 1% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 13%
Joint Venture Debt
Fixed Rate 4.10%* Floating Rate 1.69%* Maturity 8.9 Yrs* Fixed Rate 5.14%* Floating Rate 2.40%* Maturity 3.9 Yrs*
26% 13% 12% 14% 9% 5% 10% 20% 12% 11% 0% 7%
Secured Unsecured Line of Credit Term Loan Kimco’s Share Partner’s Share
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6.0x 5.8x 5.6x 5.4x 5.3x 5.2x 3.0x 3.2x 3.4x 3.5x 3.6x 3.6x 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 VISION – LEVERAGE VIEW
- Grow Recurring EBITDA & Funds
Available for Distribution (after common dividends)
- Exit Canada
- Monetize Albertsons investment
- Opportunistic use of ATM program
- Development/Redevelopment
spending $250M - $400M per year
- Modest net acquirer
Net Debt/ Recurring EBITDA Fixed Charge Coverage
A LOOK BACK
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $1.14 $1.20 $1.26 $1.33 $1.40 $1.46 $1.49 - $1.51
Headline FFO
Multiple Years of Growth
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $0.64 $0.72 $0.76 $0.84 $0.90 $0.96 $1.02 $1.08*
Consistently Raised Dividend Commensurate With Recurring FFO/ Share Growth Maintained a ~5% Recurring FFO CAGR Through Our Transformation
*Quarterly dividend annualized
Funds From Operations Dividends
Conservative FFO Payout Ratio
31
2016 GUIDANCE
*Excludes transactional income/(expense), net Note: All figures are at Kimco’s share
2016 Guidance (per diluted share) 2016 Operational Assumptions EPS FFO FFO as Adjusted* $0.76 - $0.79 $1.30 - $1.32 $1.49 - $1.51 Transactional Income/ (Expense), net U.S. Portfolio Occupancy U.S. Same Site NOI Operating Property Acquisitions Operating Property Dispositions $(79) million - $(78) million 95.2% - 95.7% +2.70% - +3.30% $450 million - $500 million $1.1 billion - $1.2 billion
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2016 FFO GUIDANCE
FFO ($M) FFO/Share(2)
2015A 2016F 2015A 2016F RECURRING: U.S. Retail Portfolio $964 $965 - $979 $2.33 $2.29 - $2.33 International & Other 64 15 – 16 0.16 0.04 – 0.04 Corporate Financing (275) (233) - (236) (0.66) (0.55) - (0.56) G&A (121) (116) - (118) (0.29) (0.28) - (0.28) Income Taxes & Other (28) (6) - (9) (0.08) (0.01) - (0.02) RECURRING FFO $604 $625 - $632 $1.46 $1.49 - $1.51 Transactional Income, Net (1) 40 (79) – (78) 0.10 (0.19) – (0.19) HEADLINE FFO $644 $546 - $554 $1.56 $1.30 - $1.32
(1) Net of non-controlling interests. 2016 ranges include bond/ mortgage prepayment charges and charge for merger of TRS (2) Reflects diluted per share basis and the potential impact if certain units were converted to common stock at the beginning of the period
APPENDIX
The Marketplace at Factoria, Bellevue, WA
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RECONCILIATION OF FFO TO NET INCOME
2015A 2016F 2015A 2016F
FFO $644 $546 - $554 $1.56 $1.30 - $1.32 Depreciation and amortization (334) (346) - (358) (0.81) (0.82) - (0.85) Depreciation and amortization real estate JV’s(1) (67) (45) - (49) (0.17) (0.11) - (0.12) Gain on disposition of operating properties 132 84 – 96 0.32 0.20 - 0.23 Gain on disposition of JV operating properties, and change in control of interests 558 202 – 210 1.35 0.48 - 0.50 Impairments of operating properties (52) (78) - (78) (0.13) (0.19) - (0.19) Benefit/(Provision) for income taxes(3) (54) (41) - (41) (0.13) (0.10) - (0.10) Noncontrolling interests(3) 4 0 - 0 0.01 0 - 0 Net income available to common shareholders $831 $322 - $334 $2.00 $0.76 - $0.79
FFO ($M) FFO/Share (2)
(1) Net of non-controlling interests (2) Reflects diluted per share basis and the operational impact if certain units were converted to common stock at the beginning of the period (3) Related to gains, impairments and depreciation on operating properties, where applicable
SIGNATURE SERIES
The Boulevard, Staten Island, NY
36
SHOPPES AT WYNNEWOOD
Completed Ground-up Development
- Phase I: 45K sf Whole Foods
- Phase II: 10K sf small shops
- Location:
─ “Main Line” area in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington MSA ─ Located 1 mile from Kimco’s Suburban Square – flagship property (~$900 sales psf)
- Average Household Income over $105K
Project Summary Timing & Economics
- Phase I:
Total costs = $27.5M Date completed = 3Q 2016
- Phase II:
Total costs = $10.9M Date Completed = 1Q 2016
GRAND PARKWAY MARKETPLACE
Phase I
Project Summary Timing & Economics
- Phase I: 488K sf open-air center anchored by Target
- Phase II: 255K sf open-air center
- Location:
─ Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA ─ Near Exxon Corporate Campus (>10k employees) ─ 168k people (5 mile radius) ─
- Avg. household income >$100k (5 mile radius)
- Phase I is 70% pre-leased
- Phase I:
Estimated costs = $87.0M Estimated completion = 2017
- Phase II:
Estimated costs = $52.0M Estimated completion = 2018
Phase II 37
Ground-up Development
38
DANIA POINTE
Project Summary Timing & Economics
- Phase I: Traditional open-air center with 320K sf of retail anchored
by Costco
- Phase II: 490K sf of full price and fast fashion retail anchored by
H&M, restaurants, and entertainment in a “Main Street” setting with two hotel towers, residential, and office space
- Location:
- 108 acres on I-95 in Dania Beach, FL (5 miles south of Fort
Lauderdale)
- Project adjacent to Kimco’s 900K sf Oakwood Plaza S.C.
- Phase I:
Estimated costs = $109.0M Estimated completion = 2018
Ground-up Development
Phase II Phase I
Project Summary Timing & Economics
PROMENADE AT CHRISTIANA
- Develop 435k sf open-air center
- Location:
─ New Castle County, Delaware ─ Fronting one half mile of I-95 ─ 1/2 mile from GGP’s Christiana Mall which produces sales of $1,200 psf ─ Destination shopping market due to no sales tax
- Estimated costs = $64.0M
- Estimated completion = 2018
39
Ground-up Development
40
OWINGS MILLS
Project Summary Timing & Economics
- Develop 615K sf open-air center (de-malling)
- Location:
─ Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA ─ Direct access ramp to 795 which connects Carrol County with Baltimore County ─ Mass transit access within walking distance of the property
- Estimated Costs = $108.0M
- Estimated Completion = 2019
Ground-up Development
WILDE LAKE – COLUMBIA, MD
- Original Village Center – located ½ mile from “Downtown”
- Strategically located market with minimal class A residential
- Specialty grocer located at project
- Favorable entitlement process implemented, easing future
entitlements in same markets
- Redevelop existing retail and newly construct:
- 32,000 sf retail
- 15,000 sf office
- 230 residential units
- Ground lease residential structure
Mixed Use Redevelopment
41
The Project
- Total Project Costs: $18.9M
- Anticipated Stabilization: 2016
- Value Creation: $14.1M
- Incremental ROI: 8%
Future Projects
- 4 additional Columbia village centers for redevelopment
- Total Project Costs: $300M-320M
- Value Creation: $150M-200M
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PENTAGON CENTRE – PENTAGON CITY, VA
- Gross Costs (Phase I): $164.5M
- Incremental NOI: $10.1M
- Incremental ROI: 6%-7%
- Incremental Value Creation: $66.9M
- Multi-phase project with first phase expected to be
completed in 2019
- Above grade retail parking structure (426 spaces)
- Develop two residential towers: 440 units (Tower I)
250 units (Tower II), and modernize existing retail
- Located in Washington D.C. MSA, #7 in U.S.
- Site sits above Pentagon City Metro
A B C D
In Progress Redevelopment
Before After
Future Redevelopment
After
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THE BOULEVARD – STATEN ISLAND, NY
- Trophy NY metro asset
- Leasing overflow to other cluster assets
- Transformative, innovative site plan design
- Maximize density
- Improve parking efficiency
- Enhance visibility & signage
- Accommodate anchor prototypes
Before
- Gross Costs: $173.5M
- Incremental NOI: $11.0M
- Incremental ROI: 6%-7%
- Incremental Value Creation: $71.1M
CORPORATE SUSTAINABILITY
Established Priorities Tangible Results Transparency & Leadership
- #1 Retail Owner, 2016 Newsweek Top
Green Companies in the U.S.
- Sole Retail Owner, 2016 Dow Jones
Sustainability North America Index
- 2014 - 2016 GRESB Green Star
- 2014 CDP Climate Disclosure Leadership
Common Area Energy Consumption 15%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MWH consumed
129,826 131,946 120,099 113,108 110,330
Community Quality Team Tenant Partnerships Operational Leadership
Stakeholder Engagement
44