June 6, 2017 Meeting “ The mission of the Boston Green Ribbon Commission is to convene leaders from Boston ’ s key sectors to support the outcomes of the City ’ s Climate Action Plan. ”
GRC C ORE S TRATEGIES City of Boston Climate Action Plan Climate Ready Boston Carbon Free Boston Develop strategies for Boston to Develop strategies for Boston and reach its goal of a carbon neutrality its metro region to prosper in the by 2050. face of long-term climate change impacts. 1. Pathways and Policy Analysis 1. Climate Consensus 2. Stakeholder Input 2. Vulnerability Assessment 3. Strategy Selection 3. Resilience Initiatives 4. Implementation Plan 4. Implementation Roadmap 2
M EETING A GENDA 8:00 Welcome 8:o5 Dialogue with Gina McCarthy, former EPA Administrator 8:35 Dialogue with Senator Michael Barrett, Chair, Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy 8:55 Climate Ready Boston 9:10 Health Care Case Study in Successful Sector Emissions Reductions 9:25 Carbon Free Boston 9:50 Mayor’s Carbon Cup Presentation 10:00 Adjourn 3
T HANK Y OU , C HANCELLOR M OTLEY ! J. Keith Motley Chancellor, U Mass Boston GRC Member, 2010 - 2017 4
W ELCOME T O O UR N EW GRC M EMBER Carole Wedge, President Shepley Bulfinch 5
G UEST S PEAKER “How Cities and States Can Lead on Climate Action in the Current Political Context” Gina McCarthy, former EPA Administrator 6
G UEST S PEAKER “Opportunities for Commonwealth Leadership” Senator Michael Barrett Chair, Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy 7
CLIMATE READY BOSTON: MOVING AHEAD ON IMPLEMENTATION Bud Ris, Co-Chair GRC Climate Preparedness Working Group 8
C LIMATE R EADY B OSTON P HASE II Implementation is Ramping Up: • CRB Phase I: approximately $1 million • CRB Phase II: approximately $2.3 million Key Initiatives: • District Scale Resilience Planning • Feasibility of Outer Harbor Coast Protection • Governance/Finance • Outreach re CRB Findings/Recommendations • Implementation Scoreboard to Monitor Progress 32
C LIMATE R EADY B OSTON P HASE II U Mass Boston: Outer Harbor Coastal Protection Feasibility City of Boston: District Scale Resilience Planning • East Boston • Charlestown • Seaport • Dorchester 10
Health Care Working Group S ECTOR C LIMATE P ROGRESS Coordinated by June 6, 2017
H EALTH CARE IS ON THE FRONT LINES OF CLIMATE CHANGE The Threat: • Illness, injury, mortality • Aggravates preexisting conditions • Infectious, water & food-borne disease • Mental health and conflict • Population displacement • Food insecurity & instability • All worse for vulnerable populations • Facility and community vulnerability Our response: • Prepare clinically • Reduce our greenhouse gas emissions • Increase facility and community resilience 12 Sources: Sabbir, Wikimedia Commons, USDA, NOAA, PSR
R ECENT P ROGRESS AND F UTURE G OALS • Our recent renewable energy purchases are delivering a 33% GHG reduction for the entire metro Boston health care sector, and we’re moving forward… • Boston Medical Center: 92-100% carbon neutral for all energy by 2018. • Partners HealthCare: “net carbon positive” by 2025, including supporting additional renewable energy so the surplus is available to the communities in which we operate. 13
Making Progress: Energy Conservation, Renewables & Zero Emission Sourcing Reaching for a 25% Energy Reduction Renewable & Zero Emission Electricity 100% Beginning 2016: • 77% low impact hydro 95% • 11% wind & solar • 90% 8% large hydro • 4% nuclear 85% 100% Clean Electricity 80% 79% 25% Reduction Target 75% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 14
I NVESTMENTS GENERATE $130 M SAVINGS OVER 20 YEARS Energy Costs $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Current Projection 3% Business as Usual Projection Equivalent to New Patient Revenue @ $20 per Dollar Saved = $2.6 billion 15
N ET - ZERO MADE POSSIBLE BY OFFSITE PPA FOR SOLAR 16
B Y 2020 FOLLOWING 2011-2015 TRENDS , SECTOR GHG REDUCED 13% ABSOLUTE , 27% COMPARED TO BUSINESS AS USUAL 5 22M sq. ft of Boston health care buildings 0 % Reduction of GHG fom 2011 -5 Sector energy savings Absolute -6.3 equivalent to >$300M in new patient revenue -10 13% by 2020 Compared to 1.5% BAU -12.4 -15 -20 City of Boston 2020 27% by 2020 GHG Emission -25 Reduction Goal = 25% -30 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 -3.1 0.94 -4.7 -6.3 Without BAU -5.7 -7.1 -8.5 -9.9 -11.3 -12.8 0 -4.6 -2.1 -9.3 -12.4 With 1.5% BAU -11.8 -14.8 -17.7 -20.7 -23.6 -26.6 Actual wo BAU 0 -3.07 0.94 -4.70 -6.27 Actual w BAU 0 -4.46 -2 -9 -12.41 17
B Y 2020: S ECTOR GHG ABSOLUTE REDUCTION W / BMC & P ARTNERS RENEWABLE ENERGY BUYS =33%. M EETS C ITY AND S TATE 25% GHG REDUCTION GOAL 3+ YEARS EARLY . 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Absolute -10 % Reduction of GHG fom 2011 -20 -30 27% North Carolina Solar Electric: 33% reduces sector GHG 6% -40 33% Absolute reduction is equivalent to 47% compared to business as usual -50 18
T AKEAWAYS • Ambitious goals are needed and not hard to achieve at cost savings or at least cost neutral, but require leadership’s support and staff persistence. • Energy markets and our options are almost entirely determined by public policy, so policy leaders need to hear about our goals and needs . • A Better City and the GRC Commercial Real Estate Group are leading another renewable energy purchasing aggregation effort. We urge you to set your own ambitious goals, and participate in such efforts. 19
SETTING THE COURSE TO CARBON NEUTRALITY BY 2050 Mindy Lubber, Chair GRC Carbon Free Boston Working Group 20
GRC C ARBON F REE B OSTON W ORKING G ROUP Members Working Group Roles • Mindy Lubber (Chair) • Strategic and technical • Amos Hostetter guidance on carbon neutrality • Alex Liftman strategies • Joe Grimaldi • Robert Brown • Outreach to stakeholders • Israel Ruiz • Plan input • Katie Lapp • Communicating the • Tim Healy strategy • Penni Mclean-Conner • Bill Fahey • Lead by example 21
C ARBON F REE B OSTON M ODELING OF P OLICIES TO M ITIGATE GHG E MISSIONS Presentation to the Boston Green Ribbon Commission Cutler J. Cleveland, PhD Professor of Earth and Environment, College of Arts and Sciences
GRC-supported Climate Planning in the City of Boston Climate Ready Boston: Adaptation – Report released in December 2016 – Implementation planning underway Carbon Free Boston: Mitigation – Report completion target Q1 2018 Carbon Free Boston Next Climate Action Plan update – Mid-late 2018 Deeper, systemic, and integrated analysis is needed for City to reach 2050 target 23
Carbon Neutrality Requires Daunting Change • De-carbonization of the grid • De-carbonization of heating and cooling • Sweeping improvements in building energy efficiency • Deep fuel substitution and mode shifts in transportation • (Near) zero waste • Changes in land use patterns 24
The Analytical Challenges • Reliance on technology models with no explicit representation of policies or costs • Cross-scale, cross-sector policy dynamics are not represented • Reliance on one-off studies • Lack of in-house technical support • Data acquisition is notoriously difficult 25
Example: Technology “ Wedges ” in U.S. Transportation Source: Williams, J.H., B. Haley, R. Jones (2015). Policy implications of deep decarbonization in the United States . A report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. Nov 17, 2015. But what must a city actually do to get EVs on the road - model doesn’t help 26
Attributes of Ideal GHG Mitigation Policy Model • Quantification of different technology “wedges” that make target feasible • Quantification of relative effectiveness and cost of policies that are economically viable and politically acceptable • Evaluation of interim progress • Impartiality and transparency 27
Model Structure Demand for fuels Codes Buildings Audits Model Demand for electricity Retrofits Demand for fuels Congestion pricing Transport Parking fees Model Demand for electricity Feebates for EVs Emissions GHG Calculator Demand for fuels (Integrating Module) Energy use Waste Zero waste Model Demand for electricity Changes to electric load levels & shape over time Demand Incentives for distributed generation for fuels Power Sector Strengthen RPS Model Install PV on municipal buildings Electricity supply 28
Carbon Free Boston Timeline and Deliverables Phase I: Summer 2016 – Scoping study recommendations for sector-specific, policy-driven GHG mitigation modeling Phase II: Fall 2016 to Summer 2017 – Market research – Fundraising – Plan for sustained policy analysis Phase III: Summer 2017 to Winter 2018 – Sector-specific, policy-driven GHG mitigation modeling – Report to City and GRC Phase IV: Expand service to other municipalities, regions, and states 29
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