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IWRAP MK2 INTRODUCTION IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Programme Omar Frits Eriksson Dean, IALA World-Wide Academy 23/10/2017 Not Rocket Science IWRAP is Probabilistic algorithm Scenario based Quantitative approach 1974 Fujii, et al.

  1. IWRAP MK2 INTRODUCTION IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Programme Omar Frits Eriksson Dean, IALA World-Wide Academy 23/10/2017

  7. Not Rocket Science

  8. IWRAP is Probabilistic algorithm Scenario based Quantitative approach

  9. 1974 Fujii, et al. “Some Factors Affecting the Frequency of Accidents in Marine Traffic.” Journal of Navigation, Vol. 27, 1974 MacDuff, T.: “The Probability of Vessel Collisions”. Ocean Industry, September 1974.

  10. 1995 Pedersen, P. Terndrup: "Collision and Grounding Mechanics". Proc. WEMT 1995, Copenhagen

  11. IWRAP Evolution IALA Council Approves ”IWRAP Mk I” (2006) Copenhagen calibration test failure (2006) SG decides to start from scratch (2007) New software coding by Gatehouse (2008) Commercial version available (2010) IWRAP Mk2 V/5 Release (China 2017)

  12. IWRAP Mk2 Licensing scheme Basic License (free to IALA members) Commercial License

  13. IWRAP is a Probabilistic algorithm

  14. Basic Risk Equation R = P ∙ C R = Risk P = Probability that undesired incident occurs C = Consequences of undesired incident

  15. IWRAP ….. Probability / Frequency R = P ∙ C

  17. IWRAP basic algorithm 1. First determine the (average) number of possible incidents, assuming that no evasive action is taken (blind navigation). 2. Then adjust this number by multiplying it with the probability that an evasive action fails (thinning with Fujii type causation factors)

  18. Basic Algorithm X Gnd = N Gnd ∙ P C N Gnd = Number of Grounding Candidates P c = Causation Probability X Gnd = Number of Annual Groundings

  19. Grounding scenario Number of grounding candidates is proportional to the portional area under the curve times traffic volume (COWI Consult , 2006)

  20. Lateral Distribution of Vessels from AIS

  21. Assumptions 1. Geometric distribution of the ship traffic over the waterway is constant 2. Volume of traffic is constant 3. Composition of traffic is constant 4. Lateral distribution of vessels is constant 5. Causation factors are constant 6. ….. 7. …..

  22. Causation Factors

  23. Elements of Causation Probability Factors ”Human Factors”

  24. Elements of Causation Probability Factors ”Organisational/Structural”

  25. From litterature we have

  26. IWRAP Default Causation Probabilities

  27. IWRAP is Scenario based Grounding scenarios (2) • Allission Scenarios (2) • Collision Scenarios (6) •

  28. Grounding & Allision Scenarios Powered grounding / allision Drifting grounding / allision

  29. Powered grounding Number of grounding candidates is proportional to the portional area under the curve times traffic volume (COWI Consult , 2006)

  32. Powered Grounding Analyst can set/adjust: Causation factor value For each ship type, what is the probability that the navigatior fails to make an evasive action.

  33. Drifting Grounding Analyst can set/adjust: blackout frequency repair time probabilities ancoring probability and conditions drifting direction probability

  34. Drifting grounding Repair time probability

  35. Scenarios - Collisions Overtaking collisions Head –On collisions Crossing collisions Merging collisions Bend collisions Area collisions

  38. Collisions scenarios Analyst can set/adjust: • Causation factor values For each ship type, what is the probability that the navigatior fails to make an evasive action.

  39. Area collision scenario Can model non-AIS vessels Fishing vessel behaviour Leisure vessel behaviour Analyst can modify causation factor for each ship type

  40. Causation factors IALA default values

  41. Model Calibration Compare with Model based on Calibration Historical present traffic distribution Casualty data and waterway geometry Verification Results: Run Collision/ IWRAP Mk2 Grounding frequencies

  42. Basic Procedures Define area to be analysed Gather sea charts, incident data Define route layout / route legs Allocate traffic to route legs Define relevant grounds as polygons Do calculation Calibrate model What-if analysis

  51. Share results with IALA

  52. Data requirements for IWRAP Analysis: High or medium resolution AIS data Sea charts Grounding hazard information Historical facts on incident (Causation Factor adjustments)

  53. Stable conditions? Incident data is historical (you want 10 years) Have the conditions changed in this period? New aids to navigation? Has volume of traffic changed? Has the traffic composition changed?

  54. AIS data quality Gaps in time series? Blind spots in geographic coverage? Has the data been downsampled?

  55. Gaps in AIS data

  56. AIS coverage quality

  57. Downsampled AIS data

  58. Downsampled AIS data

  59. Incident data quality Need data for calibrating your model Groundings – often to few registred Collisions – usually good Types of incidents? Positions of incidents? Types of vessels involved?

  60. Causation Factors IWRAP provides default values Significant variation globally Analysts need to form their own view Need to exchange these views

  61. Analysts and their quality Understand the limitations of IWRAP Understand the waterway conditions Understand waterway history Understand Causation Factors

  62. Risk Toolbox Wiki http://www.iala-aism.org/wiki/iwrap/

  63. Thanks

  64. Connect: E-mail: omar.eriksson@iala-aism.org LinkedIn: Omar Frits Eriksson Twitter: OMaritime Mobile: +33 6 31 17 76 42

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