IPv6: Where are we in 2017? Based on Internet Society 2017 report - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IPv6: Where are we in 2017? Based on Internet Society 2017 report https://www.internetsociety.org/doc/state-ipv6-deployment-2017 June 6, 2017

History of IPv6 • 1990: IETF realized that IPv4 address space would run out • Took steps to alleviate that • 1993, IETF requested proposals for “next generation” protocol • IPv6 proposed in 1994 • Standardized in 1998 • Supporting work in DHCP, DNS, routing protocols, etc • Implementation in various operating systems; Windows late • Uptake of prefixes started 2007 • ICANN policy for prefix allocation 2006 • Tokyo University report on reality of IPv4 exhaustion predictions https://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/44961688.pdf

Exhaustion timeframes • All RIRs have now entered their respective end phases • Lots of IPv6 prefixes to allocate • IPv4 only for new entrants, and then in small quantities https://ipv4.potaroo.net/plotend.png

What does that mean for a new entrant? Reliance JIO, launched September 2016 • Indian ISP, trying to reach all of India. • “Currently, almost 90% of our LTE 4G subscribers are using IPv6 – accounting for • Wireline and mobile wireless almost 70% of the country’s IPv6 traffic – • Second largest country in the world which in itself has equated to a rapid rise in • About 20% of human beings world wide India’s total IPv6 capabilities, increasing from 1% to 16% in 2016 (and passing 20% in the • First allocation followed APNIC new year).” exhaustion event • 1024 IPv4 addresses (/22) allocated • Additional space purchased in IPv4 address market • Minimum IPv6 allocation to a service provider is a /32: as many /64 prefixes as there are addresses in the IPv4 address space • Allocated 34B addresses (IPv6 /29) plus other allocations https://blog.apnic.net/2017/02/07/reliance-jio-boosts-india-past-20-ipv6-capability/

Growth in IPv6 in BGP • RIPE documents the growth on IPv6 announcements • Status: • All regions see growth • LACNIC region currently has about 37% of AS’s announcing IPv6 prefixes http://v6asns.ripe.net/v/6?s=_RIR_ARIN;s=_RIR_AfriNIC;s=_RIR_LACNIC;s=_RIR_APNIC;s=_RIR_RIPE_NCC

Traffic Growth Worldwide • This graphic as seen by Google • 37 countries have >5% traffic using IPv6 as of April 2017 • Belgium an interesting case • Regulatory requirement to not use NAT • map address to a subscriber • Operational decision to deploy IPv6 to residential networks • Belgium currently leads IPv6 traffic as seen by Google, Akamai, and APNIC https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p& countries=be,us,gr,de,ch,lu,in,gb,ca,ee,ec,br,no,jp,tt,pt,fi,fr,my,pe,cz,au,nl,nz,ie,ro,zw,hu,si,gt,pr,kr,sa,vn,at,bo,pl

A world without NATs? • Network Address Translation (NAT) was created to multiplex IPv4 address use • But was sold as a security solution • Better addressed with firewalls • Affects location-based services • Especially if implemented in the ISP • Not generally used with IPv6 • No requirement to multiplex addresses https://natmeter.labs.lacnic.net/charts/

IPv6 Traffic Growth in Latin America Google report on LACNIC region Akamai report on LACNIC Region (search engine requests) (TCP sessions moving data) https://www.vyncke.org/ipv6status/compare.php?metric=p&countries=ec,br,tt,pe,gt,bo

IPv4 Address Market – IPv4 BGP growth and market value stabilizing http://ipv4marketgroup.com/q42016-update/

IPv4 Address Market: What suggestions from the IPv4 Market Group? • “It would seem that some sort of price maximization for IPv4 should occur between [2016-08] and January of 2019. We have seen prices rise from $5/IP to $9 to $10 per IP for a /16 over the past 18 months.” • “As a potential seller, it would seem that you would want to sell into this demand and wait no longer than 28 months to sell.” • MIT has done just that: sold a /9 to Amazon to fund IPv6 deployment • http://www.networkworld.com/article/3191503 /internet/mit-selling-8-million-coveted-ipv4- addresses-amazon-a-buyer.html • https://gist.github.com/simonster/e22e50cd52b 7dffcf5a4db2b8ea4cce0 http://ipv4marketgroup.com/q42016-update/

Markets

Internet of Things (IoT) • Systems not necessarily serving a human being • Often sensors, actuators, cameras • Like? • Doorbells • Home surveillance • Thermostats • Smart Grid • Home Health Care

Bluetooth Low Energy 4.2 or 5.0 Enclave communicating with upstream Contained enclave service • Use Bluetooth for communication • Connect to an IP-capable gateway • No external communication • Enable software download • Application on Link layer… • Translate IP <-> Bluetooth

Ethernet/WiFi or Bluetooth 5.0 Enclave communicating Contained enclave with upstream service • Industrial Automation, IEC 61850 • Router, firewall, or gateway • Ethernet or WiFi • Enable software download • Others: Use IPv4 or IPv6 for communication • External Service • No external communication • Security? • Endpoint Security via encryption and/or mutual • Upstream service could use MQTT/MQTT-S authentication

http://www3.nd.edu/~hfergus2/p/wireless.pdf

ZigBee Secure Energy Profile 2.0 OpenThreads Enclave communicating with upstream service • Defined gateway (UDP/IPv6 <-> 6LowPAN) • Security managed by architecture • 6LowPAN within 802.15.4 network • COaP Management https://docs.mbed.com/docs/arm-ipv66lowpan-stack/en/latest/thread_overview/

https://workspace.openconnectivity.org/apps/org/workgroup/technology_sc_open/ Open Connectivity Foundation Tenants Current architecture (OIC 1.1): hierarchy of resources • Resources are defined by Restfull API Modelling Language (RAML) • • Payloads defined in JSON (Draft-04 schema) download.php/8950/Technology-Discussion-v3.pptx • Communication via IPV6 and CoAP, payload on the wire converted in CBOR • All data connections are secure Application level resources Core architecture resources CoAP CBOR IPV6

The laggard: Enterprise Networks • Per Hurricane Electric • 1/8 of Alexa-Top-Million names are IPv6-reachable • 28,000 of those are only reachable using IPv6 • 23% of AS’s advertise IPv6 prefixes • 325 AS’s are IPv6-only • That leaves 77% of AS’s IPv4-only • In most cases, enterprise • Usually looking for • Additional revenue, or • “Killer Application”

What is the future? • IPv4 addresses are a speculative asset • In other words, they are worth something if sold, but only for a limited period of time • We already see services that allocate IPv6 for free and charge for IPv4 • And dare people to think differently https://www.mythic-beasts.com/

IPv6-only at Microsoft • “But for us, moving to IPv6-only as soon as possible solves our problems with IPv4 depletion and address oversubscription. But it also moves us to a simpler world of network operations where we can concentrate on innovation and providing network services, instead of wasting energy battling with such a fundamental resource as addressing.” https://blog.apnic.net/2017/01/19/ipv6-only-at-microsoft/

ISP, Content, and Residential? • Can I count IPv6 accesses to content? • Implication: I have an IPv6-capable application on an IPv6-capable device on an IPv6-capable network connecting across multiple ISPs to IPv6-accessible content • Statistics like these tell an end to https://stats.labs.apnic.net/ipv6/ end story

And then there’s mobile wireless • If there is one network in which IPv6 is dominant, it is 4G/LTE • Verizon Wireless: 84% • T-Mobile USA: 81% • Reliance Jio: 90% of subscribers, 80% of traffic • AT&T: 54% • And so on… http://www.worldipv6launch.org/measurements/

So… • In the report, we walked through IPv6 deployment and market impact. • Looking for a logistic curve, and the hockey stick “up and to the right” • The new news is: • It looks like we have one – • The reason IPv4 prices are expected to fall in 2019 is because • Supply will be more constrained (less addresses, smaller blocks) • Demand will fall as IPv6 deployment passes 50%

A word to the wise • If you want to sell IPv4 addresses into the current market, • You need to have moved your network and applications to IPv6 • Moving to IPv6-dominant data centers • Will you pay for IPv4 if IPv6 works for free? • IPv6 deployment is not trivial • Do your equipment and applications support it? • If not, what is your budget timeframe? • Have you tested it? Is it operational? • Only then can you sell your IPv4 address space… • Which could have enough value to partially fund the deployment

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