IPCCs Catalytic Role: Coordinating Scenarios Jointly with IAMC IAMC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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IPCCs Catalytic Role: Coordinating Scenarios Jointly with IAMC IAMC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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johnthescone IPCCs Catalytic Role: Coordinating Scenarios Jointly with IAMC IAMC Meeting, Tsukuba, September 15 th , 2009 Professor Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Dr. Brigitte Knopf (PIK, TSU), Dr. Timm Zwickel (TSU) 2 Table of Contents Results

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SLIDE 1

IPCC’s Catalytic Role: Coordinating Scenarios Jointly with IAMC

IAMC Meeting, Tsukuba, September 15th, 2009

Professor Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer

  • Dr. Brigitte Knopf (PIK, TSU), Dr. Timm Zwickel (TSU)

johnthescone

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SLIDE 2
  • Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
  • Catalytic Role of IPCC
  • Scenario Philosophy
  • Portfolio of Scenarios
  • Upcoming Scenario Meetings
  • AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

Table of Contents

2

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SLIDE 3
  • Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
  • Catalytic Role of IPCC
  • Scenario Philosophy
  • Portfolio of Scenarios
  • Upcoming Scenario Meetings
  • AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

Table of Contents

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SLIDE 4

iterative process

AR5 Run-up: Bottom-up – Top-down Interaction

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Ideal, long-term approach: Bottom-up Community Top-down Modellers

provide list with best-guess input data run models & provide results request specific technology data feedback on results regarding feasibility, portfolio and costs

Goal: More realistic representation of policy space. Based on the Memorandum of Common Understanding from Oslo: www.ipcc-wg3.de/scenario-memo

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SLIDE 5

E3MG

.

400 ppm baseline MERGE POLES REMIND TIMER Models

Knopf, Edenhofer et al. (2009)

 with major role of renewables 400ppm can be achieved by all models  very different strategies to reach low stabilisation

550 ppm

Realistic Portfolio of Mitigation Options?

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SLIDE 6
  • Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
  • Catalytic Role of IPCC
  • Scenario Philosophy
  • Portfolio of Scenarios
  • Upcoming Scenario Meetings
  • AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

Table of Contents

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SLIDE 7

Short- & Long-term Coordination of Scenarios

  • “Ideal” iterative process between bottom-up &

top-down is too late for SRREN

  • A new coordination body is needed
  • The catalytic role of the IPCC requires a

continuous interaction between IAMC and IPCC

  • At the SRREN Expert Meeting in Oslo a list of

modelling topics were developed

  • For AR5 more model comparison exercises are

needed

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SLIDE 8

New Catalytic Role of IPCC IPCC

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IAMC

One Co-Chair of each IPCC WG

Coordination Platform

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SLIDE 9

Role of IAMC as seen from IPCC perspective

The IAMC is the professional scientific body for Integrated Assessment. For IAMC it is important to:

  • have clear rules of participation
  • be transparent
  • be representative of scientific community

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SLIDE 10
  • Discuss new challenges for AR 5
  • Decide what scenarios are

required for AR5 – IAMC communicates this to the scientific community

  • Sharing information

Tasks of Coordination Platform

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SLIDE 11
  • Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
  • Catalytic Role of IPCC
  • Scenario Philosophy
  • Portfolio of Scenarios
  • Upcoming Scenario Meetings
  • AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

Table of Contents

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SLIDE 12

AR5 Scenario Philosophy

Baselines should be self-consistent

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Idea for the conceptualization of scenarios, which should be integrated in the IPCC scenario process

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SLIDE 13

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AR5 Scenario Philosophy

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SLIDE 14

DELAY 2020 EU 2010, others 2020 Annex I 2010, others 2020 IND+CHN+Annex I 2010 all 2010

Luderer et al. 2009

WORLD

Costs & Other Problems of Delay

Full Delayed

Full Delayed

$/tCO2 (2005 US$) Means of Participation

EMF (2009) Overview of EMF 22 International Scenarios Full Delayed

Scenarios that could not be modelled under criteria of study infeasible for most models

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SLIDE 15

RECIPE: Model Comparison - Luderer et al. (2009)

All options for 450 ppm-only No CCS No biomass beyond its use in the baseline No renewables beyond its use in the baseline No nuclear beyond its use in the baseline No CCS, no nuclear beyond its use in the baseline

F

Limited Availability of Technologies

WORLD

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In Germany the Renewable Energy Law (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, EEG) greatly increased capacities. What is the interaction with Emission Trading?

BMU: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen (2008)

Are Feed-in-Tariffs the most efficient way to increase Renewable Capacities?

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 Solar Hydropower Biomass Wind StrEG Novelle BauGB EEG new EEG Renewable energies [TWh]

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SLIDE 17

Ex-post clustering of scenarios defines a storyline for each cluster. Clustering is essential to derive policy relevant messages.

ex-post storyline

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AR5 Scenario Philosophy

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SLIDE 18
  • Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
  • Catalytic Role of IPCC
  • Scenario Philosophy
  • Portfolio of Scenarios
  • Upcoming Scenario Meetings
  • AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

Table of Contents

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SLIDE 19

Issues to be covered by modellers:

  • Limited availability of technologies
  • Uncertainty
  • Delayed participation
  • Bottom-up & top-down integration
  • Hindcasting
  • Timing of policy instruments
  • Multiple policy instruments for multiple market failures

(“price-only-crowd” vs. “technology policy is needed”)

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IPCC Wish List

Emerged from SRREN Expert Meeting on Scenarios

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SLIDE 20
  • Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
  • Catalytic Role of IPCC
  • Scenario Philosophy
  • Portfolio of Scenarios
  • Upcoming Scenario Meetings
  • AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

Table of Contents

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SLIDE 21

Upcoming Scenario Meetings

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IAMC Scenario Meeting

February 2010 @ Washington D.C

IPCC SRREN 2nd Scenario Expert Meeting

Spring 2010

IPCC AR5 Scenario Workshop

2010 Possibly back-to-back to 3rd SRREN LA Meeting Early March 2010 @ Oxford, UK Joint WG II – WG III TBC at next IPCC plenary in Bali

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SLIDE 22
  • Results from Expert Meeting in Oslo
  • Catalytic Role of IPCC
  • Scenario Philosophy
  • Portfolio of Scenarios
  • Upcoming Scenario Meetings
  • AR5: Collaboration between IPCC Working Groups

Table of Contents

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SLIDE 23

AR5 Run-up: WG II – WG III Interaction

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WG III: Assess scenarios (e.g. 2nd best) WG III / WG II Scenario Workshop: Discuss details of scenarios space WG II: Analyse impact

provide emission scenarios

WG III / WG II: Describe ex-post storylines

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SLIDE 24

... organized by TGICA (Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis ) in collaboration with IAV (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) community.

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AR5 Run-up: Vulnerability – Adaptation Interaction

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SLIDE 25

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AR5 Run-up: Noordwijkerhout Timeline

Current Phase

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SLIDE 26

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AR5 Run-up: Preliminary AR5 Timeline TBC at Next IPCC Plenary (Bali)

WG III: LA1 WG II: LA1

4/2011

IPCC Plenary Synthesis Report

6/2011 2/2012 4/2012 9/2012 12/2012 5/2013 8/2013 3/2014 2/2014

WG II: LA2 WG III: LA2 WG II: LA3 WG III: LA3 WG II: LA4 WG III: LA4 WG II Plenary WG III Plenary

6/2014

Papers should be accepted for publication before 5/2013 (WG II) and 8/2013 (WG III) to be included in AR5 TOD (Third Order Draft).

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SLIDE 27

Almost Final Remark

The IPCC is the honest broker between experts and decision makers in business, politics and civil society. The IPCC should be policy relevant without being policy prescriptive.

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