IOSCO Asia Pacific Regional Committee Meeting Mr Andrew Sheng - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
iosco asia pacific regional committee meeting
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

IOSCO Asia Pacific Regional Committee Meeting Mr Andrew Sheng - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 07, 2022 273 likes •437 views

IOSCO Asia Pacific Regional Committee Meeting Mr Andrew Sheng Chairman Securities and Futures Commission 12-13 March 2001 Recovery and Outlook for Asia Pacific Asia - V-shaped recovery with markets dependent on major market outlook

slide-1
SLIDE 1

IOSCO Asia Pacific Regional Committee Meeting

Mr Andrew Sheng Chairman Securities and Futures Commission 12-13 March 2001

slide-2
SLIDE 2

 Asia - V-shaped recovery with markets

dependent on major market outlook

 Consolidation in financial sector e.g.

insurance, fund management, syndicated loans, M&As, ...

 Investment continues to flow into Asia  Technology sector affected by burst of the

tech bubble

 New Economy-led structural change

Recovery and Outlook for Asia Pacific

slide-3
SLIDE 3

3

Asia in Global Economy I (GDP, % of world)

Market Exchange PPP Weights Rate Weights Japan 15.1 7.6 4 Tigers 3.3 3.3 China 3.3 11.2 India 1.5 4.6 Other Asia 2.9 5.4 Total ASIA 26.1 32.1 US 30.2 21.9 EU 26.3 20.3 Others 17.4 25.7 TOTAL 100.0 100.0

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, May 2000.

slide-4
SLIDE 4

4

MSCI PPP-GDP Exports Population Weighting Japan 7.6 6.7 2.1 10.75 4 Tigers 3.3 9.5 1.3 2.77 China 11.2 3.1 21.1 0.37 India 4.6 0.7 16.6 0.37 Other Asia 5.4 4.5 14.4 2.22 Total ASIA 32.1 24.5 55.5 16.48 US 21.9 14.0 4.6 49.36 EU 20.3 39.3 6.3 29.21 Others 25.7 22.2 33.6 4.95 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.00

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, May 2000.

Asia in Global Economy II (GDP, % of world)

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Asian V-shaped Recovery

Real GDP Growth Rate (%) IN LOCAL CURRENCY IN USD

1997 1998 1999 2000 2000 over 1997

China 8.8 7.8 7.1 8.0 25.3 Hong Kong 5.3

  • 5.1

3.1 10.0 6.7 India 5.0 6.8 6.4 7.0

  • 1.8

Indonesia 4.5

  • 13.7

0.2 4.0

  • 70.6

Japan 1.8

  • 1.1

0.8 1.9 11.2 Korea 5.0

  • 5.8

10.7 8.5

  • 6.8

Malaysia 7.5

  • 7.5

5.6 8.0

  • 23.3

Philippines 5.2

  • 0.4

3.3 4.0

  • 29.6

Singapore 9.0 0.3 5.4 8.1

  • 1.8

Taiwan 6.8 4.8 5.4 6.6 8.2 Thailand

  • 1.4
  • 10.0

4.2 4.5

  • 27.1

Remarks: figures for 2000 are World Bank forecasts in Sep 2000 (forecast for India is ADB forecast and HK is government forecast)

slide-6
SLIDE 6

6

More Sustainable and Balanced Growth in Asia

GDP Growth Inflation Current A/C Savings (annual % change) (as % of GDP)

1992-98 1999 1992-98 1999 1992-98 1999 1993-98 1999 China 11.0 7.1 11.3

  • 1.4

1.3 1.5 41.3 41.0 Hong Kong 3.7 2.9 7.1

  • 4.0

0.2 4.4 31.9 31.0 India 6.3 6.3 8.2 3.5

  • 1.2
  • 0.8

22.7 23.7 Indonesia 3.5 0.2 16.6 20.5

  • 1.3

3.8 26.9 18.5 Japan 1.2 0.8 0.9

  • 0.3

2.5 2.3 33.0* 30.0 Korea 4.9 10.7 5.5 0.8 0.3 6.0 35.8 34.1 Malaysia 6.8 5.4 3.8 2.7

  • 2.9 16.9

41.7 47.1 Philippines 3.1 3.2 8.1 6.7

  • 3.2

9.2 18.0 20.2 Singapore 7.7 5.4 1.7 0.5 16.5 25.3 50.2 50.0 Taiwan 6.3 5.7 3.0 0.2 2.8 2.0 25.6 24.8 Thailand 3.7 4.1 5.5 0.3

  • 2.8

8.9 34.3 33.2

Selected Asia 3.1 0.3 2.9 36.6

Remarks: *1990 figure Source: BIS 70th Annual Report, Bloomberg

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia Thailand Bank assets (US$ bn) 344 196 174 167 Insurance assets (US$ bn) 50 24 12 2 Assets under mgt (US$ bn) 450 148 11 2 FX reserves (US$ bn) 108 80 30 33 Equity (US$ bn) 623 153 113 29 Bond (US$ bn) 54 54 62 22

Total (US$ bn) 1,629 655 402 255

Bank assets (% of GDP) 218 231 220 150 Insurance assets (% of GDP) 32 28 15 2 Assets under mgt (% of GDP) 285 174 14 2 FX reserves (% of GDP) 68 94 38 30 Equity (% of GDP) 394 180 143 26 Bond (% of GDP) 34 63 79 20

Total (% of GDP) 1,031 771 509 230

Sources: World Bank, Bloomberg, HKMA, CEIC, BIS, IFS and MSDW

High Savings = Large Financial Sector

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Great development potential for bond market (% of GDP, 1999)

Bank Assets Equity Market Bond Market China 126 33 11 Hong Kong 218 384 34 India 8* 26 26 Japan 172 102 203 Singapore 231 227 63

  • S. Korea

122 98 80 Taiwan 170 127 14 Thailand 150 47 20 Germany# 273 51 97 US 61 180 187

Remark: # 1998 figure, *2000 figure and commercial banks only Sources: FIBV, IFC, World Bank, CEIC, various central banks and websites

slide-9
SLIDE 9

FDI flows to main markets … including Asia (% of total)

10% 13% 24% 41% 11% 12% 32% 35% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Asia top 5 Asia top 10 US EU 1999 1988-1993 avg

Source: United Nations, World Investment Report 2000

Asia top 5 Asia top 10

slide-10
SLIDE 10

770 1,609 2,168 2,926 3,532 6,078 6,984 10,340 23,068 40,400 319 234 1,160 3,320 1,899 3,982 956 3,689 8,852 737

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Philippines Vietnam India Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Singapore Korea Hong Kong China 1999 1988-1993 avg Source: United Nations, World Investment Report 2000

and the major beneficiaries are …

FDI in Asia top 10 (US$ mn)

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Source: United Nations, World Investment Report 2000

M&As opportunities are huge

(1999, US$ mn)

776 1,101 1,637 1,812 2,060 2,070 2,155 3,152 9,057 52 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Vietnam India Malaysia Philippines Thailand Singapore Taiwan China Hong Kong Korea

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Internet Users (mn) Internet Penet (%) PC Penet (%)

2000 2004 2000 2004 2000 2004 Korea 18.0 35.9 38 73 29 51 China 9.0 51.2 0.8 4.7 1.6 4.5 India 8.0 52.0 0.8 4.8 0.2 0.8 Taiwan 5.6 10.7 26 49 20 35 Malaysia 1.9 3.9 8.1 15.2 6.2 15.1 Hong Kong 1.4 3.4 21 49.7 30 56.2 Singapore 1.1 2.4 28.5 52.7 27.2 55.3 Thailand 0.9 3.7 1.5 5.6 3.7 6.6

Source: Merrill Lynch, October 2000

Internet penetration still growing...

slide-13
SLIDE 13

... so is IT

Mobile Penet (%) B2B (US$ mn) B2C (US$ mn)

2000 2004 2000 2004 2000 2004 Korea 55 64 38 73 400 14,600 China 6.7 19 440 25,091 39 4,061 India 0.3 1.3 676 3,708 52 283 Taiwan 62 70 308 4,449 118 593 Malaysia 18.9 36.2 300 7,300 600 Hong Kong 61 81.5 351 4,801 109 2,728 Singapore 60 75 1,100 42,800 100 3,300 Thailand 5.1 9.2 400 11,800 900

Source: Merrill Lynch, October 2000

slide-14
SLIDE 14

14

Losses in Market Cap of the Top 10 TMT Stocks from their peaks

Loss Loss as % of (US$ bn) Total Market Cap

Korea 83 56% Taiwan 108 44% Hong Kong 227 36% Japan 681 22% Singapore 24 16% Australia 47 13% US 1,865 12%

Source: Bloomberg, FIBV

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Performance of Major Markets

(end 2000, US$ bn)

Market change over Market change over P/E Cap end 99 Turnover 1999 ratio

Australia 373

  • 12.9%

226 14.3% 21 Hong Kong 623 2.5% 402 59.1% 13 Indonesia 27

  • 58.1%

15

  • 24.6%

n.a. India 163

  • 10.9%

290 85% 18 Japan 3,157

  • 29.1%

2,316 38.2% 165 Korea 48

  • 51.5%

556

  • 24.2%

n.a. China 581 82.0% 735 94.4% 69 Malaysia 113

  • 19.1%

53 24.6% 16 Philippines 26

  • 46.0%

9

  • 56.7%

41 Singapore 153

  • 20.8%

95

  • 11.4%

21 Taiwan 248

  • 34.1%

986 8.0% 21 Thailand 29

  • 48.9%

21

  • 43.3%

n.a. Germany 1,270

  • 11.3%

2,120 36.7% 56 UK 2,577

  • 12.8%

4,559 34.1% 30 US 15,021

  • 9.7%

30,859 59.0% 38

Turnover - for the 12 months ending Dec 2000 Sources: FIBV and websites of various exchanges

slide-16
SLIDE 16

End of Presentation