Investor Presentation Review of Q4 FY2020
Version 1.0
This Investor Presentation should be read in conjunction with the JKH Annual Report 2019/20 to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the drivers and strategies of our businesses
Investor Presentation Review of Q4 FY2020 Version 1.0 This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation Review of Q4 FY2020 Version 1.0 This Investor Presentation should be read in conjunction with the JKH Annual Report 2019/20 to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the drivers and strategies of our businesses
Investor Presentation Review of Q4 FY2020
Version 1.0
This Investor Presentation should be read in conjunction with the JKH Annual Report 2019/20 to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the drivers and strategies of our businesses
Non-Executive Directors
2 *Debt includes the Right-of-Use assets due to the accounting impacts of SLFRS 16 – Leases. The debt to equity ratio excluding SLFRS 16 - Leases is 32.7%.
Note: The above excludes the contribution from Other including Information Technology and Plantations Services
PAT attributable to equity holders 2017/18
earning industry groups such as Consumer Foods, Retail and Financial Services. Approximately 50 per cent of earnings are contributed from these businesses.
attacks in April 2019 and resultant impact on tourist arrivals to the country. Performance was further impacted from the fourth quarter onwards with the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic
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2018/19
22% 11% 8% 20% 5% 33%
2019/20
36% 10% 4% 16% 1% 33% 54% 18% 13%
4% 29%
Transportation Consumer Foods Retail Leisure Property Financial Services
Sri Lankan Context
curfew, imposed from 20 March 2020 onwards. Restrictions were waived only for services classified as 'essential’.
including the Colombo district. The most recent release by the Government states that curfew in the two districts will remain, with restrictions being eased off during the day for the gradual commencement of economic activity by the public and private sectors.
is seeing early signs of an encouraging recovery of consumer activity which should be positive for consumer-focused businesses such as Consumer Foods, Retail, Logistics and Insurance.
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Group response:
each of the businesses were stress-tested under multiple operating scenarios, and, subsequently at a Group consolidated level, to ascertain the impact on the ability to sustain its operations with its cash reserves and banking facilities in place.
businesses to manage its operations even under an extreme stress-tested scenario.
undertaken various measures to ensure a sustainable and agile operating model, with a focused view on cash management and liquidity, in particular.
international best practice to ensure suitable working arrangements and safe conditions for employees, customers and other stakeholders.
activity where we are already seeing a positive momentum.
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Total EBITDA 22,174 25,798 (14) Recurring EBITDA** 22,055 25,579 (14) Recurring EBITDA excluding Leisure*** 19,714 20,278 (3) **Refer page 38 of the JKH Annual Report 2019/20 for commentary on recurring adjustments
***Leisure is excluded due to the impacts of the Easter Sunday attacks 6
Industry Group FY2020 FY2019* YoY Growth (%) (Rs. Million) (Rs. Million) Transportation 4,417 4,563 (3) Consumer Foods 3,412 2,920 17 Retail 5,110 2,890 77 Leisure 2,363 5,354 (56) Property 568 323 76 Financial Services 2,988 3,359 (11) Other, incl. IT and Plantation Services 3,315 6,388 (48)
*Note that the FY2019 EBITDA is adjusted to reflect impact from SLFRS 16 - Leases, for comparison purposes
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Industry Group Q4 FY2020 (Rs. Million) Q4 FY2019 * (Rs. Million) YoY Growth (%) Transportation 952 1,290 (26) Consumer Foods 1,111 1,105 1 Retail 1,421 1,060 34 Leisure 1,933 2,502 (23) Property 497 188 164 Financial Services 833 1,185 (30) Total EBITDA 8,104 7,541 7
*Note that the FY2019 EBITDA is adjusted to reflect impact from SLFRS 16 - Leases, for comparison purposes
While the performance of the Group initially witnessed strong momentum in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2019/20, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic had varying levels of impact on the performance of the businesses. This is discussed further in the ensuing slides.
Adjusted effective capital employed (Rs.bn)
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Adjusted ROCE (%)
Consumer Foods - 23% IT - 23% Transportation - 19% Retail - 16% Financial Services - 15% Property (Excl. Cinnamon Life) - 2% Cinnamon Life – (0.1%) Plantations – (0.2%) Leisure – (1%)
Industry group Effective capital employed (%) Cinnamon Life 32 Leisure 24 Property (Excluding Cinnamon Life) 8 Transportation 7 Financial Services 6 Retail 6 Consumer Foods 3 Plantations 1 Information Technology 1
capital employed which consists primarily of cash Hurdle Rate - 15%
Lanka
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KARACHI GWADAR BAHL MUMBAI CHENNAI VISHAKHAPATNAM KOLKATA CHITTAGONG YANGON MOMBASA LAMU DAR-ES-SALAM CAPE TOWN PORT LOUIS ADEN KOCHI
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11
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4.31 4.91 5.19 5.74 6.21 7.05 7.23
2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Million TEUs
Port Container handling capacity (TEUs) Colombo 8 million Hong Kong 21 million Singapore 40 million Shanghai 36 million
Sources: Government websites/ Sri Lanka Ports Authority
13 4Q FY20 earnings update: Transportation industry group
growth in profits driven by improved margins.
corporate income tax from October 2019 onwards, thereby negatively impacting performance as the Group recognises its share of profit after tax of SAGT as an equity accounted investee.
(Rs. mn) Q4 2019/20 Q4 2018/19 EBITDA 952 1,290
Volumes (TEU) 2018/19 2019/20 % YoY Change Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 SAGT 514,589 535,998 492,542 509,012 528,641 3% JCT 607,913 561,897 580,747 532,052 548,944
CICT 668,230 702,745 763,123 759,448 726,303 9% Total 1,790,732 1,800,639 1,836,411 1,800,512 1,803,888 1% SAGT 2018/19 2019/20 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Domestic: Transshipment volume mix 21:79 19:81 19:81 19:81 20:80
Bunkering Business (Lanka Marine Services) Port of Hambantota
storage of petrochemicals and a pipeline to the Port
through on a daily basis Logistics Business (John Keells Logistics)
capacity utilisation of 96 per cent.
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LMS 2018/19 2019/20 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Volume growth 9 (4) (16) (6) (8)
equity
Key performance indicators (%) FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 Growth of frozen confectionery volumes 11 (4) 10 3 Growth of beverage volumes 10 (16) (25) 7 Growth of convenience food volumes (4) 3 7 (0) EBITDA margin (%) 27 20 18 20
15 4Q FY20 earnings update: Consumer Foods industry group
*Adjusted for SLFRS 16 – Leases, for comparison purposes
Confectionery businesses recorded an improvement in performance driven by an expansion of margins due to a better sales mix.
encouraging volume growth in the months of January and February, where volumes grew approximately 20%-30%, on average.
wide curfew due to the COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions in sales in the last 2 weeks of March 2020, which is a peak sales month, resulting in a steep decline in volumes, thereby impacting overall volumes for the quarter.
(Rs. mn) Q4 2019/20 Q4 2018/19* EBITDA 1,111 1,105 Key performance indicators (%) FY2019 FY2020 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Growth of frozen confectionery volumes 21 19 1 4 (12) Growth of beverage volumes (6) 22 2 4 1 Growth of convenience foods volumes 1 (2) 7 (9) EBITDA (Rs. million) 1,103 843 736 722 1,111 EBITDA margin (%) 24 19 17 18 26 Revenue mix (Bev:FC) 49:51 48:52 48:52 44:56 51:49
result of the disruptions to sales in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
seasonality associated with the Beverages and Frozen Confectionery businesses, where sales peak due to the traditional New Year in April.
highly skewed towards the impulse markets, demonstrating the significant growth potential for the impulse category.
impulse category, CCS invested in a state-of-the art ice cream plant in Seethawaka which commenced operations in Q1 FY2018/19.
currently, approximately 70 per cent of the CSD portfolio’s calorific sugar content is reformulated and replaced with Stevia; a natural sweetener with zero calories.
plain milk, flavoured milk and water branded under Elephant House, and additional flavours
Sri Lanka Thailand Malaysia 70% 30% 8% 92% 56% 44% Bulk vs. Impulse Split - Regional Impulse Bulk
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52.0 39.0 31.4 19.0 14.0 Philippines Thailand Singapore Malaysia Sri Lanka Carbonated Soft Drinks - Per Capita Consumption (Litres)
Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Nomura Research Institute, Unilever Corp, Web articles
70 49 48 43 40 16
Singapore Malaysia Hong Kong Taiwan Thailand Sri Lanka
Modern Retail Penetration (%)
Present share of modern retail
Keells * 109 Cargills 410 Arpico 47 Laugfs 37 * As at 31 March 2020
retail outlets
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against regional peers
Sri Lanka
considering the significant disruption to operations in the current
suspended and will be re-evaluated once operations settle.
132 47 30 21.0 7.3 4.7 4.5 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.5 1.9 0.9
Modern trade density – population (’000) per store
Source: Retail and shopper trends in the Asia Pacific, AC Nielsen
Keells current coverage
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19 Profitability margin (%) FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 EBITDA (Rs.milllion) 2,010 1,975 1,623 4,267 EBITDA margin 6.7 5.3 3.6 7.8 EBIT margin 5.7 4.0 2.0 4.6 4Q FY20 earnings update: Retail industry group
*Adjusted for SLFRS 16 – Leases, for comparison purposes
a strong performance driven by growth in same store sales and a notable contribution from new
(Rs. mn) Q4 2019/20 Q4 2018/19* EBITDA 1,420 1,060
Key performance indicators (%) FY2020 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Same store sales growth 4.5 3.6 5.1 5.4 1.7 Same store footfall growth 7.1 2 5.7 6.1 (6.2) Average basket value growth (2.4) 1.6 (0.6) (0.6) 8.4 EBITDA margin 5.0 7 .0 6.3 9.0 8.8
resulted in outlets being closed during the latter half of March 2020, which is a peak sales month.
customers stockpiling grocery items in the latter half of March 2020.
‾ 8 Resort hotels in strategic tourist destinations (1,022 rooms) ‾ 10% of the country’s 4-5 star class tourist accommodation
Holidays
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strategy to enhance the ‘Cinnamon’ footprint in Sri Lanka
land in addition to 517 acres of leasehold land in Digana
: 10.9 acres
: 14.6 acres
: 41.7 acres
: 25.2 acres
: 3.4 acres
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*City Hotels occupancy and ARR excludes Cinnamon red
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Sector FY2020 FY2019 Occupancy (%) ARR (US $) EBITDA Margin (%) Occupancy (%) ARR (US $) EBITDA Margin (%) City Hotels* 34 100 10.8 48 128 22 Sri Lankan Resorts 61 78 11.4 80 90 28 Maldivian Resorts 56 364 26.7 84 320 23
*Sri Lanka Resorts EBITDA includes IP gains 4Q Earnings update: Leisure industry group
*Adjusted for SLFRS 16 – Leases, for comparison purposes
developments surrounding the global spread of COVID-19, derailing the momentum of recovery in arrivals from the Easter Sunday attacks.
start-up costs relating to the newly refurbished premium resort in Sri Lanka, Cinnamon Bentota Beach.
(Rs. mn) Q4 2019/20 Q4 2018/19* EBITDA 1,933 2,502
Key indicators City Hotels ** Sri Lankan Resorts Maldivian Resorts FY2020 FY2020 FY2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Occupancy (%) 14 35 43 42 46 65 76 58 55 47 56 63 ARR(US $) 123 106 93 93 72 67 70 99 325 297 357 419 EBITDA Margin (%) (34) 12 18 27 (15) 4 9 32 22 13 19 40
were impacted as a result of the decline in arrivals due to the Easter Sunday attacks in April 2019. Until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, forward bookings were showing positive momentum with arrivals in line with levels seen before the Easter Sunday attacks.
Year Tourist arrivals (In 000’s) Growth (%) 2010 654 46 2015 1,798 18 2016 2,051 14 2017 2,116 3 2018 2,334 10 2019 1,913 (18)
decrease of 18%, as compared to the 2,333,796 recorded in the comparative period of the previous year.
compared with 740, 600 in the previous year, impacted by travel restrictions on account of COVID-19 and the closure of the Bandaranaike International Airport from March 2020 onwards.
revive the tourism sector.
Source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority
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Month Tourist Arrivals (In 000’s) Growth % August ‘19 144 (28) September ’19 109 (27) October ’19 119 (23) November ’19 177 (10) December ‘19 242 (5) January ‘20 228 (6) February ‘20 208 (18) March ‘20 71 (71)
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Annual tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka ('000)
*2010 included due to being the first full post-war year.
Source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority
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*2019 arrivals impacted by Easter Sunday terror attacks
400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* Tourist Arrivals
Source: Governmental tourism websites
25 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Cambodia Sri Lanka Arrivals in millions 1990 2019
60,000 31,790 30,114 26,113 9,100 7,600 5,019 Bangkok Manila Kuala Lampur Jakarta Ho Chi Minh Hanoi Colombo
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developer/landowner tie ups
“7th Sense” on Gregory’s Road OnThree20 27
Source: KL: CBRE property market outlook 1Q 2018 (forecast for 2018) HCMC: CBRE Vietnam property overview Q1 2017 (forecast for 2018) CMB: Internal Estimates (forecast for 2018)
28 53,796 38,000 2,187 KL Ho Chi Minh City Colombo
Annual condominium supply in regional cities
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Source: Company analysis
10% 95% 80% 60% 70% 50% 55% 65% 90% 5% 20% 40% 30% 50% 45% 36% Greater Colombo Singapore Thailand (Central Bangkok) Thailand (Outskirts) Malaysia (Central KL) Malaysia (Greater KL) India (Chennai) India (Bangalore) Apartments Landed houses
Colombo
at land banks held in Crescat City and Cinnamon Lakeside Vauxhall street land bank
9.38 acres, to be developed with Finlays Colombo Limited
Beira lake water front which is earmarked for development of recreational and residential projects by the UDA
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Cinnamon Lakeside, Colombo Vauxhall Street Union Place Cinnamon Grand, Colombo Crescat Boulevard Cinnamon Life
Colombo city post construction of the outer circular expressway
modal transportation hub to be developed
projects in proximity to the Colombo city Suburban Space development
land in Thudella
integrated community with approximately 2,000 units.
place, and the design work has been initiated.
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4Q FY20 earnings update:
Property industry group
*Adjusted for SLFRS 16 – Leases, for comparison purposes
for the quarter includes fair value gains on investment property.
continued its encouraging sales momentum, recording sales of 19 units during the months
impacted by the imposition of curfew.
and Cinnamon Life were closed from the time
gradually commencing work as permitted under the relevant Government directives.
contractor to understand the impact on the
deliverables. (Rs. mn) Q4 2019/20 Q4 2018/19 EBITDA 497 188
Cumulative sales (units) Number of units sold as at 31 March ‘20 Cinnamon Life: The Residence at Cinnamon Life 137 Suites at Cinnamon Life 110 Cinnamon Life commercial complex 4 floors Tri-Zen 262 Development Pipeline:
1. “Tri-Zen”- an 891 apartment residential development in central Colombo. 2. Revenue for Cinnamon Life will be recognized upon completion. 3. Master planning has been initiated for the jointly held 9.38-acre property in Vauxhall Street and the 18-acre site in Thudella 4. Future development of the land bank held at Rajawella Holdings Limited, as discussed in detail overleaf
Rajawella Holdings Limited (RHL)
portfolios
developable land extent of approximately 80 acres
plot
the course commenced in February 2018
possible operation of a hotel in the long term
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As at March 2020
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Conferencing ; capacity (4,837 pax) in three venues and car park facility (2,450 slots) 800 guest room hotel, including conferencing, banqueting, 7 specialty restaurants and entertainment facilities Rentable mall and entertainment space of 372,000 Sq. Ft (Gross – 518,000 Sq. Ft) First residential development of approximately – 358,000 Sq. Ft (231 units). Second residential development of approximately – 255,000 Sq. Ft (196 units). A standalone office development - 254,000 Sq. Ft rentable area
Note: Areas are subject to change based on final drawings 40
Source: MasterCard 41
1.5 1.63 1.78 1.94 2.11 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Indian Outbound MICE (Millions)
insurer in Sri Lanka
Bank PLC and Union Bank PLC
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Life Insurance Penetration as a % of GDP - 2016
Global average – 3.47%
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45 54 64 71 80.3 88.8 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Life Insurance Gross Written Premiums
*Excludes a one-off surplus of Rs. 3.38 billion arising from the change in policy liability valuation
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4Q FY20 earnings update: Financial Services industry group
*Adjusted for SLFRS 16 – Leases, for
comparison purposes
a strong improvement in profits driven by the removal
and NBT on financial services.
Assurance PLC was impacted by a notional tax credit reversal under investment income.
(Rs. mn) Q4 2019/20 Q4 2018/19 EBITDA 833 1,185
Key performance indicators CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 Market share (%) 13 13 13 14 14 13 GWP growth (%) 8 17 19 22 11 4 Recurring net profit (Rs.Mn) 881 1,127 1,313 4,002* 1,640 1,200 Surplus from Life Fund (Rs.Mn) 750 800 1,100 3,642 1,100 1,000 Life Fund (Rs.Bn) 23.1 26.3 30.3 29.1 32.1 36.7 Capital Adequacy Ratio N/A N/A 411% 352% 262% 362% Key performance indicators Q4 FY2019 (Jan-Mar 2019) Q1 FY2020 (Apr-Jun 2019) Q2 FY2020 (Jul-Sep 2019) Q3 FY2020 (Oct – Dec 2019) Q4 FY2020 (Jan – Mar 2020) GWP growth (% YoY) (1) (1) 8 7 5 Net profit (Rs.Mn) 178 324 153 681 167 Net profit growth (% YoY) (41) (46) (91) (32) (6)
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Key performance indicators CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 Loans and advances growth (%) 19.5 22.4 23.7 25.0 19.0 2.0 Industry (LCB’s) (%) 12.3 23.5 17.8 15.8 20.3 4.9* Return on equity (%) 19.8 18.20 17.7 17.4 15.3 12.2 Industry (LCB’s) (%) 16.8 15.7 17.3 17.5 13.7 10.6* Net Interest Margin (%) 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.5 Industry (LCB’s) (%) 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.6* NPL ratio (%) 4.2 2.8 2.8 2.3 4.6 6.2 Deposit base (Rs. Bn) 111 129 152 194 231 227 Asset base (Rs. Bn) 159 176 211 268 325 325 Net Profit (Rs. Mn) 2,537 2,614 2,869 3,371 3,702 3,454 Key performance indicators Q4 FY2019 (Jan-Mar 2019) Q1 FY2020 (Apr-Jun 2019) Q2 FY2020 (Jul-Sep 2019) Q3 FY2020 (Oct – Dec 2019) Q4 FY2020 (Jan-March 2020) Net profit (Rs. Mn) 773 575 1,066 1,113 959 Net profit growth (% YoY) (18) (34) 9 54 27 Gross Loan growth (% YoY) 18 12 8 3 (1) Net Interest Margin (%) 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.6 NPL Ratio (%) 4.9 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2
*CBSL provisional figures for 2019
This document was produced by John Keells Holdings PLC for information purposes only. The information contained in this document are a review of the financial information pertaining to FY2020 and does not constitute an issue prospectus or a financial analysis. This Investor Presentation should be read in conjunction with the JKH Annual Report 2019/20 to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the drivers and strategies of our businesses. Whilst John Keells Holdings accepts responsibility for the accuracy of the information contained in this document, it does not assume any responsibility for investment decision made by the prospective investors based
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