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Investor Presentation
September 2019
Investor Presentation September 2019 PUBLIC PUBLIC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
1 Investor Presentation September 2019 PUBLIC PUBLIC Forward-Looking Statements 2 This presentation includes forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements regarding Coca- Cola eceks (CCI) plans, objectives,
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September 2019
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This presentation includes forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements regarding Coca- Cola İçecek’s (“CCI”) plans, objectives, expectations and intentions and other statements that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “target,” “believe” or other words of similar meaning. These forward-looking statements reflect the current views and assumptions of management and are inherently subject to significant business, economic and other risks and uncertainties. Although management believes the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, at this time, you should not place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from CCI’s expectations include, without limitation: changes in CCI’s relationship with The Coca-Cola Company and its exercise of its rights under our bottler's agreements; CCI’s ability to maintain and improve its competitive position in its markets; CCI’s ability to obtain raw materials and packaging materials at reasonable prices; changes in CCI’s relationship with its significant shareholders; the level of demand for its products in its markets; fluctuations in the value of the Turkish Lira or the level of inflation in Turkey; other changes in the political or economic environment in Turkey or CCI’s other markets; adverse weather conditions during the summer months; changes in the level of tourism in Turkey; CCI’s ability to successfully implement its strategy; and other factors. Should any of these risks and uncertainties materialize, or should any of management’s underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, CCI’s actual results from operations or financial conditions could differ materially from those described herein as anticipated, believed, estimated or expected. Forward-looking statements speak only as of this date and CCI has no obligation to update those statements to reflect changes that may occur after that date.
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Overview of CCI 2019 YTD Highlights Strategic Priorities Financial Highlights Appendix 4 11 17 25 35
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Overview of CCI
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Proven track record of expansion & growth in emerging markets Presence in large and growing markets, compelling NARTD* growth opportunity in our footprint Abundant potential in demographics Strategy, Execution and People to accelerate quality growth Disciplined financial management to deliver stakeholder value Strong System alignment and unique long-term relationship with TCCC
Overview
*Non-alcohol ready-to-drink
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KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN AZERBAIJAN TURKEY IRAQ JORDAN SYRIA PAKISTAN
44% 23% 12% 21% Turkey Pakistan Kazakhstan Others
Revenue Breakdown (2)
36% 64% Turkey International
EBITDA Breakdown (2)
49% 26% 10% 8% 7% Turkey Pakistan Kazakhstan Iraq Others
Volume Breakdown (2)
Sparkling Market Position
#1 #2 #1 #2
Figures reflect FY 2018 numbers unless otherwise stated (1) Unit case, 1 UC equals 5,678 liters (2) As of FY2018
Overview
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Single country in 2005… Expanding into Central Asia and North Iraq in 2006-2007… JV in Pakistan in 2008... A regional bottler today…
318 mn UC 1,315 mn UC
EBITDA
CAGR 2005-2018
REVENUE
CAGR 2005-2018
VOLUME
CAGR 2005-2018
9x 4x 10x
South Iraq in 2012…
Overview
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729 730
Cumulative 2005-2015 2016 2017 2018
Overview
13% 4% 6% 18% 21% 27% 17% 26% 36%
CAGR (2005-16) 2017 2018*
Volume NSR EBITDA
Solid Free Cash Flow
Growth TL million 2018: Highest net revenue & EBITDA growth
2018: Highest free cash flow
Accelerating Quality Growth
*Includes TFRS 15 adjustments
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Right Price Right Mix Right Portfolio
IC Portfolio Availability Optimum price/pack architecture
IC Share ↑ 5 pts
in Turkey in last 5 years Regional Strategies Effective discount and trade promotion management
NSR > PCE growth
Portfolio expansion Portfolio innovation Portfolio diversification
Right Channel
Channel prioritization Clear channel roles & objectives Segmented execution
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Outlet Coverage (as of April’19) Strike Rate*** (as of June’19) Call Completion Rate** (as of June’19) Time in Field* (as of June’19)
75%
+4pts vs 2015
91%
+13pts vs 2015
69%
+7pts vs 2015
91%
+6pts vs 2015
Over 1 million coolers ~118K new placements in 4 years
(as of Apr’19)
Superior Execution: Be Available, Be Cold, Be Visible
*Time in Field: Percentage of time spent on the field vs. total working hours **Call Completion Rate: Percentage of realized visits vs. planned ***Strike Rate: Percentage of invoiced customers vs. planned
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2019 Year-to-Date Highlights
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2Q19 YoY Growth
1,8% 3,9% 24,7% 25,5%
Volume Transactions (excl. NRTD Tea) Net Sales EBITDA 3.7% yoy increase exlc. NRTD tea
0,4% 3,0% 23,6% 20,6%
Volume Transactions (excl. NRTD Tea) Net Sales EBITDA 2.5% yoy increase exlc. NRTD tea
1H19 YoY Growth
2019 YTD Highlights
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13 2019 YTD Highlights
SPARKLING STILLS WATER NRTD TEA
11.8%
1.9%
4.1%
20.9%
4.1%
9.1%
5.2%
4.4%
% in Total Mix (1H19)*
TOTAL
10.6%
0.4%
1.8%
1H18
1H19
(2Q19)
Unit Case Volume Growth (YoY)
72% 7% 14% 8%
* Totals may not foot due to rounding differences
6.8% 11.6% 6.0%
6.3% 2018
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14 0,1% 4,2% 5,0% 23,1% 62,7%
Volume Volume (excl. NRTD Tea) Transactions (excl. NRTD Tea) Net Revenue EBITDA*
* Excluding other operating income/expense
Cycling 8% in 2Q18
2Q19 Growth yoy
Highest ever sparkling cases in 1H19 +5.7% yoy in 2Q19 in Sparkling category
New accounts and new SKU listings Continued cooler placements
RGM
How Turkey system turned crisis into
Best all around the World
Emerging out of the clear air turbulence stronger
Discounter
A Paradigm Shift in Customer Management
Proud to be the Best
#1 in 3 categories in Global Customer & Commercial Leadership Awards
2Q 2019 Highlights
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9,0% 10,5% 17,3% 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19
▪ 10th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth ▪ All categories grew over 30% in 2Q19 ▪ 11th consecutive quarter of volume growth ▪ Growth in all categories ▪ Strong consumer activations and cooler placements
32% 26% 37% 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19
Azerbaijan
UC Volume Growth yoy 13% 19% 17% 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19
Kazakhstan
UC Volume Growth yoy
excl Turkmenistan
19.6%
UC Volume Growth yoy
Central Asia
2Q 2019 Highlights
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16 12,0% 10,6%
▪ 3.1% volume growth in Iraq in 2Q19 driven by trademark Coca-Cola ▪ Increasing cooler placements and outlet coverage ▪ Continued focus on improving route-to-market in Jordan ▪ Challenging macro conditions pressuring top-line growth ▪ Increasing availability of top SKUs and outlet coverage ▪ Continued focus on improving route-to-market
Pakistan Middle East
2Q18 2Q19
Pakistan & Middle East
1Q19 2Q18 2Q19 1Q19 Pakistan Middle East UC Volume Growth yoy 2Q 2019 Highlights
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Strategic Priorities
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Strategic Priorities
Customer & Consumer
Being the preferred partner of our customers, offering our consumers a wide choice of products fit for every lifestyle and
Community
Being a good corporate citizen
People
Great place to work
CREATE VALUE
Be the Best FMCG Company Across
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Strategic Priorities
Accelerate Growth Win at the Point of Sale Exercise Financial Discipline Win with People
Management (RGM)
improvements
“OnePeople”
ONE CCI
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Strategic Priorities
CCI Value Share Opportunity
9% CAGR
2018- 2021E
8% 9% 51% 29%
WATER STILLS SPARKLING NARTD
INDUSTRY VALUE GROWTH
TOTAL NARTD INDUSTRY IN CCI COUNTRIES: $13BN (2018)
Source: Nielsen, Canadean and internal estimates, data as of 2018
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NARTD per cap*
CCI's Share
CCI average: 291 Strategic Priorities
Source: TCCC and Canadean Estimates * NARTD includes sparkling soft drinks, ready-to-drink tea, energy drinks, juices, packaged water * NARTD per cap per year in terms of number of 8 ounce servings
1,428 1,176 1,0881,048 998 942 885 806 779 685 608 577 525 511 498 443 391 386 339 325 260 234 193 166 141 84 53
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27% 16% 8% 6% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0,3% North America EMEA Latin America Asia Pacific Turkey Tajikistan Azerbaijan Jordan Kazakhstan Kyrgysztan Iraq Pakistan
Strategic Priorities
Sparkling 71%
Sparkling 85%
Water 14% NRTD Tea 9% Still 7%
Other 15% 2006
2018 Increasing Household Penetration Double-digit growth in No Sugar
&
Share of Low/No Calorie in Sparkling Volume (2018) Category Breakdown
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59% 50% 40% 35% 28% 24%
Asia Pacific North America World Average Europe, Middle East and Africa Latin America CCI
Young Population in CCI countries
Teen Recruitment Opportunity!
NSR per case
~1.5x
higher Gross Margin vs. FC
Strategic Priorities
* Based on CCI analysis for Turkey operations
Share of Immediate Consumption (IC) Packages in Sparkling
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Volume Breakdown Guiding principles for geographical expansion
Strategic Priorities
Turkey 49% Pakistan 26% Kazakhstan 10% Iraq 8% Others 7% Turkey 81% International 19%
2006 2018
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Financial Highlights
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Numbers include TFRS 15 and IFRS 16 adjustments *EPS in TL per 100 shares
Consolidated (million TL) 2018 Change 1H19 Change 2Q19 Change Net Sales 10,623 26.6% 6,117 23.6% 3,888 24.7% Gross Profit 3,527 27.2% 2,078 22.4% 1,380 23.6% EBIT 1,269 43.8% 751 12.7% 610 18.3% EBITDA 1,919 35.5% 1,141 20.6% 820 25.5% Profit / (Loss) Before Tax 546 31.4% 473 88.7% 449 57.6% Net Income/(Loss) 321 36.1% 409 200.5% 411 122.1% GP Margin 33.2% 0.2pp 34.0% (0.3pp) 35.5% (0.3pp) EBIT Margin 11.9% 1.4pp 12.3% (1.2pp) 15.7% (0.9pp) EBITDA Margin 18.1% 1.2pp 18.7% (0.5pp) 21.1% 0.1pp EPS* 1.26 36.1% 1.61 200.5% 1.62 122.1%
Financial Highlights
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World Sugar Prices
(London#5 Average, USD/tonne)
Resin Prices
(Average, USD/tonne)
LME Aluminium Prices
(Average, USD/tonne) Hedged Position for 2019(1)
100%(2) 85% 82%(3)
(1) As of July 2019 (2) For non-regulated markets. Iraq, Turkmenistan and Jordan are non-regulated markets. As sugar market is regulated in other countries there is no hedging
(3) Hedging through contracting with suppliers.
100 200 300 400 1H18 1H19 500 1000 1500 2000 1H18 1H19 500 1000 1500 1H18 1H19
✓ Cash designation in place to manage FX
impact on input costs: Hard currency cash allocation for FX-denominated raw material purchases
✓ c.90% of Turkey’s 2019 FX-denominated
raw material purchases is hedged at USD/TRY 3.95
✓ Positive impact on COGS and lower FX
gains due to designation of cash
Managing FX exposure related to raw materials...
Financial Highlights
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8,8 10,2 1H18 1H19
Financial Highlights
Accelerating quality growth Net Debt (USD mn) Net Debt / EBITDA Net Interest Coverage
Continued deleveraging FX-Neutral Net Debt/EBITDA: ~1.59x Increasing EBIT
Covenant < 3.25x
1,91 1,61 1H18 1H19
Covenant > 4x
691 577 1H18 1H19
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29 USD; 75% USD; 33% 34% EUR; 23% EUR; 21% EUR; 20% 41% 43%
2017 2018 1H19 8% 18% 2% 2% 16% 53% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Financial Highlights
Breakdown of Consolidated Debt
Participating cross-currency swap transaction for USD 150 mn Net investment hedging for USD 281 mn Repayment of USD 100 mn USPP (May 2018) Repayment of USD 500 mn Eurobond (October 2018) Participating cross-currency swap & Net Investment Hedging
Maturity Profile
USD 120 mn USPP USD 500 mn Eurobond USD 80 mn USPP Local Currency;
2%
Local Currency;
5%
Local Currency;
3%
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7,4% 5,7% 4,5% 2016 2017 2018 10,2% 6,4% 1H18 1H19
Financial Highlights
4%
2017 15 Days Cash Conversion Cycle 2016 26 Days
26 Days 2018 47 Days 62 Days
DSO DSI DPO
30 Days 2016 47 Days 51 Days 29 Days 2017 43 Days 57 Days
2018 12 Days
*Net Sales Revenue
Full Year Half-Year (Annualized)
Net Working Capital/NSR*
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7,3% 5,9% 8,1% 2016 2017 2018
Financial Highlights
7.1%
average
Full Year
✓ 62% related to International operations ✓ 38% related to Turkey Operation
*Net Sales Revenue
4,7% 3,9% 1H18 1H19
Half-Year (Annualized)
✓ 64% related to International operations ✓ 36% related to Turkey Operation
CapEx / NSR*
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EBITDA Growth
Prudent CapEx Working Capital Efficiency
Financial Highlights
6% 6% 10%
Free Cash Flow and Yield*
10 46 642 729 730
0,1% 0,5% 7,6% 8,2% 9,4%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
FCF (TLmn) FCF Yield *Free cash flow yield based on year-end market capitalization
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Financial Highlights
Organic Growth Optimum CapEx Allocation
CapEx/Sales ~7%- 8%
(2019E)
Inorganic Growth Selective M&A Strategy
Bolt-on acquisitions Geographical expansion
proximity
Deleveraging Debt Repayment
Optimum debt repayment
metrics
Shareholder Return Dividends
Sustainable dividend policy
ratio
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2019 Guidance- Old 2019 Guidance- New Sales Volume 3%-5% growth on a consolidated basis 1%-3% growth on a consolidated basis Flat volume in Turkey Flat to slightly positive in Turkey 6%-8% growth in international operations 2%-4% growth in international operations Net Revenue 16%-18% on a consolidated basis (FX-neutral1) maintained EBITDA Slight improvement on a consolidated basis maintained Capex/Sales 7%-8% (on a comparable basis) maintained Net Debt/EBITDA Lower than 1.5x (on an FX-neutral1 and organic basis) maintained
Financial Highlights
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Appendix
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Medium-Term 2018-2020 Volume growth 4% - 6% (CAGR) Net Revenue growth (FX neutral) 10% - 12% (CAGR) EBITDA Margin Slight improvement Capex / Sales 7% - 8%* Net Debt / EBITDA < 1.5x**
*Comparable ** Organic and FX-neutral
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✓ Net distributable income ✓ Free cash flow generation ✓ CapEx and other funding needs for growth ✓ Prevailing macroeconomic conditions
0,12 0,2 0,79 1,18
2015 2016 2017 2018
Dividend Yield: 0.3% Dividend Yield: 0.5% Dividend Yield: 2.1% Dividend Yield: 4.3%
Dividend per Share
(TL per 100 shares)
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Population (mn)(1) GDP per cap, PPP (USD 000)
(2)
Per capita NARTD consumption (3) CCI's Market Share in Sparkling (4) CCI's Market Position in Sparkling Capacity (mn UC) Capacity Utilization Rate Turkey 82 28,3 58 65% 1 684 78% Pakistan 201,0 5,7 27 42% 2 408 79% Kazakhstan 18,5 27,5 79 51% 1 162 78% Iraq 39,8 16,9 51 43% 2 147 75% Azerbaijan 9,9 18 37 74% 1 59 68% Jordan 9,9 9,4 45 24% 2 35 47% Turkmenistan 5,8 19,5 28 n.a. n.a. 23 43% Kyrgyzstan 6,4 3,8 37 69% 1 16 109% Tajikistan 9,1 3,4 16 n.a. n.a. 18 25%
Source: (1,2) IMF World Economic Outlook (3) CCI and TCCC estimates (4) Nielsen, Canadean
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TR, KZ, PK, IQ 150,000 Youth
CCI VOLUNTEERS
1,500 volunteers, 100,000 beneficiaries
28 plants, 750,000 beneficiaries
BIST 50 Sustainability Index
Included in Leading Sustainability Indices
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CCI Investor Relations Tel : +90 216 528 4000 Fax : +90 216 510 7010 CCI-IR@cci.com.tr www.cci.com.tr