www.thorindustries.com
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
JUNE 6, 2016
INVESTOR PRESENTATION JUNE 6, 2016 www.thorindustries.com FORWARD - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
INVESTOR PRESENTATION JUNE 6, 2016 www.thorindustries.com FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation includes certain statements that are forward looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
www.thorindustries.com
JUNE 6, 2016
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This presentation includes certain statements that are “forward looking” statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These forward looking statements are made based on management’s current expectations and beliefs regarding future and anticipated developments and their effects upon Thor Industries, Inc., and inherently involve uncertainties and risks. These forward looking statements are not a guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ from our expectations. Factors which could cause materially different results include, among others, raw material and commodity price fluctuations, material or chassis supply restrictions, legislative and regulatory developments, the costs of compliance with increased governmental regulation, legal issues, the potential impact of increased tax burdens on our dealers and retail consumers, lower consumer confidence and the level of discretionary consumer spending, interest rate fluctuations and the potential economic impact of rising interest rates, restrictive lending practices, management changes, the success of new product introductions, the pace of obtaining and producing at new production facilities, the pace of acquisitions, the potential loss of existing customers of acquisitions, the integration of new acquisitions, the loss or reduction of sales to key dealers, the availability of delivery personnel, asset impairment charges, cost structure changes, competition, the impact of potential losses under repurchase agreements, the potential impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar on international demand, general economic, market and political conditions and the other risks and uncertainties discussed more fully in ITEM 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended July 31, 2015 and Part II, Item 1A of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ending April 30, 2016. We disclaim any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward looking statements contained in this presentation or to reflect any change in our expectations after the date of this presentation or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any statement is based, except as required by law.
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Founded in 1980 by Wade Thompson & Peter Orthwein with the acquisition of Airstream, Inc. One of the world’s largest manufacturers of recreational vehicles representing a broad range of major brands Two major business segments include:
Operations in 148 facilities* located in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Oregon Products sold through independent retail distributors primarily in the U.S. and Canada Historically strong cash flow and solid balance sheet Approximately 10,450 employees* Listed on the NYSE under ticker THO
$1,849 $2,340 $2,640 $3,242 $3,525 $4,007
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Net Sales (continuing operations, $ millions) $1.72 $1.66 $2.07 $2.86 $3.29 $3.79
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Diluted EPS (continuing operations)
*as of July 31, 2015
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Travel Trailers (hitch to the bumper of the tow vehicle) Fifth Wheels (hitch to a specially mounted hitch in the bed of a pickup truck) Specialty Trailers (includes camping trailers, truck campers and horse trailers with living quarters)
Towable RV's $3,096.4 77% Motorized RV's $870.8 22% Other $39.6 1%
FY2015 Sales*
Towable RV Segment Products
Class A Motorhomes (fully enclosed, bus style motorhome) Class B and C Motorhomes (B – van motorhomes, C – living area built on van or pickup chassis)
Motorized RV Segment Products
*Fiscal Year ended July 31, 2015, in millions
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$1.72 $1.66 $2.07 $2.86 $3.29 $3.79 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Diluted EPS, Continuing Ops.
$91.2 $91.6 $111.4 $151.7 $175.5 $202.0 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Net Income, Continuing Ops., $ Millions
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Fiscal years ended July 31,
$0.10 $0.15 $0.18 $0.23 $0.27 $0.30 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
*In addition to regular quarterly dividends, Thor paid special dividends of $1.50 in FY13 and $1.00 in
dates and payment dates for any such future dividends are subject to the determination of the Board, and will be dependent upon future earnings, cash flows and other factors.
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At Thor we strive to provide RV consumers with superior products and services through innovative solutions which enhance the enjoyment of the RV lifestyle Our decentralized operating structure and independent operating subsidiaries foster an entrepreneurial spirit and an unending focus on the needs of the users of our products – resulting in our drive to lead the industry with innovation, product quality and customer service Our focus requires that we make decisions based on the long-term success of
the expense of quality or without regard to bottom-line impact
long-term sustainable sales growth rests in the strength of our relationships with consumers, dealers and suppliers
success
moves us closer to our goals, even though it might impact our results in the short term
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Primary focus on assembly:
Strong market share in the primary RV categories – Travel Trailers, Fifth Wheels and Motorized (#1 in motorized, #2 in towables)*
Solid balance sheet Meaningful increases in production capacity during FY14 and FY15 Diversified lineup of innovative product offerings Strong relationships with wholesale financing providers Excellent relationships with dealers, lenders and consumers based on financial strength to provide warranty and honor repurchase agreements
*Source: Statistical Surveys, Inc., U.S. and Canada, year-to-date through March, 2016.
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$12,767 $33,698 $10,442 $24,190 $30,438 $43,055 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Thousands
Capital Acquisitions
$19,756 $99,562 $170 $10,718 $86,092 $194,486 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Thousands
Business Acquisitions
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No golden parachutes No ‘pro forma’ earnings. We report net income, not adjusted earnings to cover up performance Consistent focus on shareholder value Simple compensation philosophy:
for-performance philosophy
provide broader, long-term focus on overall Company results
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Although consumer confidence has remained range bound since the beginning of 2016, it remains at the highest levels since the recession. Final results rose to 94.7 in May from 89.0 in April. This compares with 90.7 a year ago.* Consumers are more optimistic about their financial prospects and anticipate somewhat lower inflation rates in the future. The main areas of uncertainty for consumers surround whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates over the next few months and the potential impact of the Presidential election on the overall economy.* Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) forecast in May 2016 that calendar 2016 wholesale shipments for all RV categories should increase to 396,400 units, or an increase
Pricing and promotional environment remains competitive, but generally improved over prior year. Domestic travel offers fewer risks than international travel at a more compelling value. Low fuel prices make RV travel increasingly attractive for consumers.
*Source: University of Michigan final Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2016 **Source: RVIA Roadsigns Summer 2016
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Leisure travel such as camping continues to be popular* Approximately 29.7 million households in North America camp at least once a year, but only 22% of them are RV campers. The remaining campers primarily use tents or cabins, which makes them a solid target market for the RV industry. Favorable demographics* Baby boomers (a prime RV target market for many years) represent 24% of the population and are a target market as they reach retirement age and have more time for travel. Generation X and Millennials offer future opportunities as they seek more active outdoor experiences with their families. Increasingly diverse potential customer base – Hispanic, African American, Asian and other ethnicities grew from 13% in 2012 to 23% in 2015. Younger campers (25-34 age) are also a growing market – from 18% in 2012 to 23% in 2015. New applications – broader usage Growth in use at extreme sporting events, youth sports leagues and tournaments, dog and craft shows, and collegiate sports activities for alumni and fans.
*Source: Kampgrounds of America (KOA) 2015 North American Camping Report
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Opportunities with Millennials* Millennials (defined as age 19-35) are camping more, with 58% surveyed indicating they plan to camp more nights in 2016. This dempgraphic is camping in groups, as they view camping as an opportunity to spend time with family and friends. Younger campers also view camping as a way to reduce stress, escape the pressures of everyday life, be more active and lead a healthier lifestyle. Increasing Diversity Among Campers* Although Hispanic, African American, Asian and other ethnicities accounted for 23% of campers in 2015, they represented 40% of new campers in 2015 – showing their strong, long-term growth potential. These increasingly diverse campers view camping as an affordable vacation option that allows them to be more active, reduce stress and spend more time with family and friends. Hispanic campers have grown from 6% to 8% of campers over the past year. Based on survey responses, they also seem much more likely to continue camping, as they were the group most likely to say they plan to spend more nights camping in 2016.
*Source: Kampgrounds of America (KOA) 2015 North American Camping Report
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POSTLE ALUMINUM ACQUISITION ENSURES SUPPLY OF KEY MATERIAL COMPONENT
On May 1, 2015 Thor acquired Postle Aluminum, based in Elkhart, Indiana, for approximately $144 million in cash, net
Postle generated sales of approximately $220 million in calendar 2014 and we expect the acquisition to be accretive to earnings. Approximately 30% of total sales are to Thor subsidiaries and approximately 75% of total sales were to the RV industry. The remaining sales are to the specialty truck and trailer, cargo, marine and fencing industries. Postle produces a variety of aluminum extrusions, specialized components and powder coating and painting services. The current management team will continue to lead the company as a separate Thor subsidiary.
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Three Months Ended April 30, 2016 2015 % Chg. Net Sales $1,284.1 $1,174.3 9.4% Gross Profit 201.9 166.6 21.2% % of Sales 15.7% 14.2% SG&A 80.8 68.9 17.3% % of Sales 6.3% 5.9% Income Before Tax (cont. ops.) $116.3 $94.6 23.0% % of Sales 9.1% 8.1% Income Taxes 37.1 31.0 Net Income (cont. ops.) $79.2 $63.6 24.6% Diluted EPS (cont. ops.) $1.51 $1.19 26.9%
Amounts in millions, except per share data
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THIRD QUARTER 2016 RESULTS FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS UP DOUBLE DIGITS
Bob Martin – Thor President & CEO:
“We continued to see the benefits of executing our strategic operating plan in the third quarter, resulting in record sales and bottom-line results. As our core markets continued to grow, we were able to generate improved margins and profitability based on growth in revenues, improved product mix and lower material costs. This spring we have visited dealers and attended dealer meetings where we have heard consistent feedback that our dealer partners are seeing an influx of younger consumers entering our markets, which gives us optimism for the long-term growth of our business and
their needs. Thor leads in innovation with new technology features that make RVs easier to use and better connected, positioning us to expand our markets over the long term.”
Peter Orthwein – Thor Executive Chairman:
“Since our founding, Thor has pursued strategic growth through acquisitions in markets with the greatest opportunities, followed by investments to support their growth and long-term success. The record results we posted this quarter illustrate the power of our business model, particularly when the market is performing as well as it is currently. As we continue to build on our history, we have every reason to be optimistic about the future of Thor and our industry, particularly as we attract younger families into the RV lifestyle to drive future growth in sales, net income and total returns to our shareholders.”
$1,174.3 $1,284.1 FY15 FY16
Net Sales ($ millions)
+9%
$63.6 $79.2 FY15 FY16
Net Income (Continuing Ops.)
+25%
$1.19 $1.51 FY15 FY16
Diluted EPS (Continuing Ops.)
+27%
$726.8 $1,056.8 FY15 FY16
RV Backlog ($ millions)
+45%
Note: Third quarter 2016 Results include Postle acquired May 1, 2015.
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Profitable every year since our founding in 1980 – 35 years of profitability We are primarily assemblers, not manufacturers Variable cost structure provides flexibility in cyclical industry Known as innovators in the industry Strong market share in all main RV product categories Solid balance sheet – history of returning cash to shareholders Strong consumer, dealer and lender relationships Experienced team
www.thorindustries.com
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INVESTOR Q&A: THIRD QUARTER AND YEAR- TO-DATE OPERATING RESULTS
Sales growth for the third quarter of 9.4% decelerated from the first half of the year of 13.0%, what was different in the first half?
market as well as the solid market acceptance of our numerous new products and features introduced at Open House last fall. The growth in the Open House over the past several years has resulted in a shift in revenues earlier in the fiscal year as dealers tend to place more of their orders in September rather than at Louisville in early December, resulting in deliveries and related revenues
due to acquisitions that were not included in prior year figures.
underperforming in the towable segment (7% growth vs. 10% industry growth). Our performance in the towable market is driven, in part, by our outsized presence in the fifth wheel segment of the towables market, which has been much softer than the travel trailer segment of the towables market so far this calendar year. In travel trailers, we have been nimble in shifting production and growing
with new, younger consumers entering the market.
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INVESTOR Q&A: THIRD QUARTER AND YEAR- TO-DATE OPERATING RESULTS (CONTINUED)
What were the drivers of third-quarter and year-to-date gross margin improvements? Is the current gross margin percentage sustainable?
improvements in material costs compared to the prior year. Growth in gross profit margin will become more challenging in the fourth quarter as certain benefits to gross margin, specifically the $10 million impact of the retroactive reinstatement of tariff rebates on certain imported raw material in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, will not repeat in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016. We believe it is important to view the sustainability of gross margin rates on an annual basis and we believe our current annual gross margin rates are sustainable so long as current market and economic conditions remain positive. Can you explain the factors that drove the 150 basis-point increase in gross margin in the quarter?
Segment driven primarily by improvements in product mix and material costs as a percent of sales. For Towable RVs material, labor, freight-out and warranty costs as a combined percentage of Towable net sales decreased to 78.3% for the three months ended April 30, 2016 compared to 80.0% for the three months ended April 30, 2015. This decrease in percentage was primarily the result of a decrease in the material cost percentage of sales due to favorable product mix, selective net selling price increases and improved material management since the prior year period. Freight-out improved as a percentage of sales as well.
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INVESTOR Q&A: QUARTER AND YEAR-TO- DATE OPERATING RESULTS (CONTINUED)
What factors are causing Corporate selling, general and administrative expenses to increase for both the quarter and year-to-date periods?
$12.1 million for the three months ended April 30, 2016 compared to $9.7 million for the three months ended April 30, 2015. The increase is primarily due to an increase in compensation costs, as bonuses increased $0.3 million in correlation with the increase in income from continuing operations before income taxes compared to the prior year, and stock-based compensation increased $0.6 million. The stock-based compensation increase is due to increasing income from continuing operations before income taxes over the past three years, as most stock awards vest ratably over a three-year period. In addition, deferred compensation expense increased $0.3 million, which relates to the equal and
compensation plan assets. Legal and professional fees also increased $0.7 million, largely attributable to fees incurred related to strategic growth initiatives and increased sales and marketing initiatives.
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INVESTOR Q&A: THIRD QUARTER AND YEAR- TO-DATE OPERATING RESULTS (CONTINUED)
What factors are causing Corporate selling, general and administrative expenses to increase for both the quarter and year to date periods (continued)?
million to $32.0 million for the nine months ended April 30, 2016 compared to $26.3 million for the nine months ended April 30, 2015. The increase is primarily due to an increase in legal and professional service fees of $2.2 million, largely attributable to professional fees incurred related to the development of long-term strategic growth initiatives and increased sales and marketing initiatives. In addition, compensation costs also increased, as bonuses increased $1.5 million in correlation with the increase in income from continuing operations before income taxes compared to the prior year, and stock-based compensation increased $1.9 million. The stock-based compensation increase is due to increasing income from continuing operations before income taxes over the past three years, as most stock awards vest ratably over a three-year period. Costs related to the actuarially determined workers’ compensation and product liability reserves recorded at Corporate also increased by a total
the market value change in the deferred compensation plan assets.
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INVESTOR Q&A: THIRD QUARTER AND YEAR- TO-DATE OPERATING RESULTS (CONTINUED)
What has been the impact of the Restricted Stock Unit (RSU) program on SG&A expenses?
expense recognized in the three-month periods ended April 30, 2016 and April 30, 2015 for these restricted stock unit awards and other stock-based compensation was $2.3 million and $1.7 million,
2015 for these restricted stock unit awards and other stock-based compensation was $7.0 million and $5.0 million, respectively. The increase in expense for both periods is due to increasing income from continuing operations before income taxes over the past three years. The RSUs vest ratably over a three-year period.
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INVESTOR Q&A: THIRD QUARTER AND YEAR- TO-DATE OPERATING RESULTS (CONTINUED)
What was the impact of new acquisitions on third-quarter and year-to-date sales and pre-tax income?
third quarter of 2015 and the third quarter of 2016 both reflected a full quarter of sales and pre-tax income related to this acquisition. On a year-to-date basis, the increase in the total Towable net sales for the nine month period ended April 30, 2016 over the corresponding period in 2015 was impacted by the inclusion of the five months of incremental activity of CRV/DRV. When we initially purchased CRV/DRV, we indicated their annual revenues were approximately $135 million, or approximately $11 million per month, with margin comparable to our existing margin.
activity from Postle with no corresponding activity in the third quarter of 2015. The operating results of Postle for the three and nine month periods ended April 30, 2016 are included in the “Other” segment information of Footnote 4, “Business Segments,” of the Notes to the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited). Q What was the impact of new RV acquisitions to April 30, 2016 backlogs and dealer inventory?
related to the CRV/DRV acquisition and therefore are comparable statistics.
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INVESTOR Q&A: THIRD QUARTER AND YEAR- TO-DATE OPERATING RESULTS (CONTINUED)
Has the Postle acquisition met expectations?
What caused the discontinued operations impact this quarter?
related to the former bus segment, including ongoing costs related to liabilities retained by the Company under the Stock Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Allied Specialty Vehicles, Inc. (ASV) for bus product liability and worker’s compensation claims occurring prior to the closing date of the sale. What was the year-to-date tax rate? Also, in the earnings press release, you mention that you expect the fourth-quarter tax rate to be higher than the prior year rate, why is that?
with 31.9% for the nine months ended April 30, 2015. The primary reason for the increase in the effective income tax rate is due to the larger amount of uncertain tax benefits that settled favorably in the nine months ended April 30, 2015 when compared to the nine months ended April 30, 2016. We expect similar conditions to prevail in the fourth quarter resulting in a higher effective tax rate for the full year of fiscal 2016 compared to the prior year. This will have a more significant impact on year-
approximately 29.2%, driven by the favorable settlement of various uncertain state tax positions that are not expected to repeat in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016.
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INVESTOR Q&A: THIRD QUARTER AND YEAR- TO-DATE OPERATING RESULTS (CONTINUED)
You’ve been making some changes to reporting structure among your subsidiaries lately, has that helped to drive gross margin growth? Are you finding that centralization is actually working better than you thought and proving more efficient than the running of each operating entity independently?
the customer, we are able to respond quickly to the needs and demands of the market which in turn drives the success of our operations. We also recognize that as our business changes and market conditions change, we need to make appropriate changes to optimize our reporting structure. This has helped in improving our financial results indirectly, as we improved our overall operations to the benefit of our dealers, consumers and the broader RV market.
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INVESTOR Q&A: BALANCE SHEET AND CASH FLOW
What drove the sizable increase in accounts receivable?
basis, the increase was $16.6 million. The increase in accounts receivable at April 30, 2016 was due primarily to the increase in sales as well as the timing of sales associated with those receivables near the end of the quarter. What are your priorities for cash utilization?
remain consistent – our first priority is to support and grow our core RV business, both organically and through acquisitions. Our second priority is maintaining and growing our regular dividend rate over time. Our third priority is for strategic share repurchases or special dividends, as determined by the Company’s Board.
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INVESTOR Q&A: MARKET CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK
What is your longer-term outlook for the overall RV market?
dealers remain optimistic about the long-term growth of the RV industry. Consumers remain positive, as the impact of lower fuel prices, increasing job creation, historically low interest rates and lower inflation expectations have helped consumer confidence to remain strong. This positive consumer confidence combined with innovative product offerings, including a broader array of lower priced units in each category of products, have driven the industry growth in excess of the growth rate of the broader economy. In addition, a positive future outlook for the RV segment is supported by favorable demographics – both as more people reach the age brackets that historically have accounted for the bulk of the retail RV sales as well as an influx of younger and ethnically diverse consumers that are attracted to the RV lifestyle. These younger consumers in particular are generally attracted to lower and moderately priced products and are, in part, fueling additional growth in the industry beyond historical levels. The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) also recently updated their forecast for calendar 2016 and are now projecting 5.9% growth, to 396,400
can change rapidly, based on current indicators from the industry, dealers and consumers, we remain optimistic that the RV industry and Thor have several more years of solid growth ahead.
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INVESTOR Q&A: MARKET CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK (CONTINUED)
What is your outlook for the rest of the year?
strength in the RV market, along with a continued shift toward more moderately priced towable products, should result in high-single-digit revenue growth in the fourth quarter, as compared with the prior year. The impact of the retroactive reinstatement of tariff rebates on certain imported raw material, which had a $10 million, or 95 basis point, positive impact on gross margin in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015, will not repeat in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016. The estimated effective income tax rate is anticipated to remain comparable to the effective rate incurred in the first nine months of fiscal 2016, versus the unusually low rate of the fourth quarter of 2015. Have you seen any softness in markets that have been heavily impacted by the oil industry?
from Statistical Surveys, accounted for 31,911 units in 2015, which was up 7.9% for the year. For the first three months of 2016, total retail registrations in Texas increased by 6.9%. At this point, we have not seen signs of reduced demand in the large metro regions of Texas. What is the current state of Dealer inventory levels?
to reflect a 1-for-1 replacement as units are sold at retail. Dealer inventory remains appropriate for current conditions in both towables and motorized.
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INVESTOR Q&A: MARKET CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK (CONTINUED)
Can you comment on your rental business?
TMC is the exclusive provider of rental units for a number of leading national RV rental companies and is continuing to focus on growing this business with other rental companies. Typically, rental units are standardized with more limited options than typical retail units. Rental orders tend to be produced in larger runs that can result in improved productivity that may offset lower-margin content within these units. What is the current state of the Canadian RV market?
dollar relative to the U.S. dollar. Since we sell our products to Canadian dealers priced in U.S. dollars, this creates an upward pressure on prices in local currency which has an adverse impact on
Surveys, Inc. fell 12.9% from calendar 2014. For 2016, total Canadian retail registrations as reported by Statistical Surveys, Inc., fell 17.9% for the first three months of 2016, with towables decreasing 17.5% and motorized decreasing 23.7%, though it’s important to note that the Canadian market typically has limited activity in the early months of the calendar year. What is the status of the new Heartland plant in Idaho?
production at the new western facility that began producing and shipping units in the fiscal third
Coast dealers of our Heartland subsidiary.
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INVESTOR Q&A: MARKET CONDITIONS AND COMPETITION (CONTINUED)
What is the status of the new Thor Motor Coach plant in Bristol, Indiana?
reception to the new Class C products we introduced last year at Open House. That plant began production in May and the team plans to ramp up production over the fourth quarter. Do you have plans for additional geographic expansion esp. considering your comments on capacity constraints?
acquisitions of existing and newly-constructed facilities in northern Indiana and in the western U.S, as well as potential construction of new facilities. Each potential location is evaluated on a number
an adequate labor force, as well as cost. As we evaluate these options, we remain mindful that our industry is defined by its seasonality and cyclicality, and we make decisions on expansion with a long-term view and are conscious of the threats of over-expansion or under-expansion to meet a shorter-term market condition. Management’s decision-making seeks to find the optimal positioning to drive both short-term and long-term performance for our shareholders. What else are you doing to address the capacity constraints?
demand in light of current production capacity for their products. In some cases we choose to expand capacity, such as the recent expansion of Class C production at Thor Motor Coach. In other cases, the subsidiaries may shift production between plants based on seasonal demand or shift production flow to increase effective capacity at existing facilities.
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INVESTOR Q&A: MARKET CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK (CONTINUED)
Thor has lost market share in calendar 2015. Why have you lost market share and what does the Company plan on doing to address or reverse the losses?
partially offset by some decreases in towable share, most notably in high-end fifth wheels and some travel trailers. Market share is certainly a key metric that we monitor for all our product categories – however, it is not the only metric. Overall, we generally try to take a balanced approach to growing or maintaining market share across our portfolio of products and growing or maintaining gross margin. In addition, we have made some critical moves in the past, such as the consolidation of the two smaller Dutchmen facilities in Idaho and Oregon into the existing Keystone facility in Pendleton,
share, but that the long-term benefit of improved operating efficiency at the Pendleton plant would more than offset the cost. In addition, the RV industry is extremely competitive. We have developed a variety of new products that we believe address the largest and fastest growing segments of the market, which should help to improve share as they penetrate the broader market. Describe the current competitive environment, is there much discounting going on?
drive the industry forward with new and better products for dealers and consumers. However, given the capacity constraints on certain products, most notably towable RVs, we have seen less traditional discounting pressure overall in the market than we did several years ago.
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INVESTOR Q&A: MARKET CONDITIONS AND OUTLOOK (CONTINUED)
Do we anticipate further RV industry consolidation?
last recession, we do believe that opportunities remain for additional consolidation within the
consolidation have evidenced. In fact, it tends to benefit the industry and broadens the customer base by driving innovation and attracting more individuals to the RV lifestyle. So, even with more consolidation, we are confident that the competitive environment that drives innovation and improved product offerings throughout our industry will continue. In addition, we have seen a number of new
What is your strategic plan for future acquisitions?
factors that provide the greatest likelihood to a successful acquisition and that will provide long-term value to our shareholders. We are opportunistic in our approach and seek willing sellers at a reasonable sales price. We also seek companies with strong management teams. We remain focused on acquisition opportunities within or adjacent to the RV industry.
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295.8 339.6 441.1 413.9 389.9 199.2 106.9 133.6 140.6 196.6 215.7 186.9 189.9 211.7 215.8 187.9 173.1 163.1 203.4 227.8 259.5 247.2 247.5 254.5 292.7 321.2 300.1 256.8 311.0 320.8 370.1 384.4 390.5 353.5 237.0 165.6 242.3 252.3 285.8 321.2 356.8 374.2 396.4 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (e)
Historical Data: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association, Calendar year 2016: RVIA estimate as of Summer RV Roadsigns, published in May 2016
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68.9 96.6 156.1 160.2 157.2 64.1 28.5 35.4 41.2 69.5 82.0 68.7 67.7 73.7 72.8 61.1 52.3 41.9 46.9 51.3 58.2 52.8 55.3 55.1 63.5 71.5 61.0 49.2 60.4 62.0 71.7 61.4 55.8 55.4 28.4 13.2 25.2 24.8 28.2 38.4 44.0 47.3 50.9 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (e)
Historical Data: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association, Calendar year 2016: RVIA estimate as of Summer RV Roadsigns, published in May 2016
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226.9 243.0 285.0 253.7 232.7 135.1 78.4 98.1 99.4 127.1 133.7 118.1 122.1 137.9 142.9 126.7 120.8 121.1 156.5 176.5 201.3 194.3 192.2 199.5 229.1 249.6 239.1 207.6 250.6 258.9 298.3 323.0 334.5 298.1 208.6 152.4 217.1 227.5 257.6 282.8 312.8 326.9 345.5 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (e)
Historical Data: Recreation Vehicle Industry Association, Calendar year 2016: RVIA estimate as of Summer RV Roadsigns, published in May 2016
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Industry retail demand has shifted toward more light-weight towables and gas Class A and Class C motorhomes as consumers seek value Wholesale units typically outpace retail in the early part of the calendar year; historically sales become more balanced as we reach the peak retail selling season
Calendar Year 2013 2014 2015 YTD 2015 YTD 2016 Industry Retail Registrations* 301,481 units (+14.7%) 328,866 units (+9.1%) 369,883 units (+12.5%) 66,295 units (+18.5%) 73,145 units (+10.3%) Industry Wholesale Shipments** 321,127 units (+12.4%) 356,735 units (+11.1%) 374,246 units (+4.9%) 97,074 units (+7.9%) 108,015 units (+11.3%)
* Statistical Surveys, Inc., includes US and Canada. 2013, 2014 & 2015 Full Year Actual, YTD 2015 and 2016 through March ** RVIA wholesale shipments for full years 2013, 2014 & 2015, YTD 2015 and 2016 through March
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Dealers remain confident with orders reflecting a shift toward more normal ordering patterns Orders generally expected to reflect 1-for-1 replacement as units are sold at retail Backlog: April 30 ($000s),
2016 2015 % Change Towables $727,539 $484,228 50.2% Motorized $329,272 $242,560 35.7% Total RV $1,056,811 $726,788 45.4%
Dealers inventory remains appropriate for current conditions in both towable and motorized Lenders still comfortable with current dealer inventory turns and current credit line utilization; year-
Dealer Inventory: April 30, (units)
2016 2015 % Change RV 82,100 81,300 1.0%
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Total Share % Total Share % Total Share % Total Share % THOR* 24,341 33.3% 127,528 34.5% 119,089 36.2% 115,572 38.3% Forest River** 25,693 35.1% 131,198 35.5% 112,979 34.4% 99,822 33.1% Jayco*** 9,818 13.4% 49,650 13.4% 41,574 12.6% 37,942 12.6% Winnebago 2,175 3.0% 11,857 3.2% 10,395 3.2% 8,661 2.9% Grand Design 1,994 2.7% 6,967 1.9% 4,174 1.3% 813 0.3% REV Group 773 1.1% 3,380 0.9% 4,888 1.5% 6,034 2.0% Gulfstream 731 1.0% 4,743 1.3% 4,562 1.4% 4,882 1.6% Subtotal 65,525 89.6% 335,323 90.7% 297,661 90.5% 273,726 90.8% All Others 7,620 10.4% 34,560 9.3% 31,205 9.5% 27,755 9.2% Grand Total 73,145 100.0% 369,883 100.0% 328,866 100.0% 301,481 100.0% Y/E 12/31/15 Y/E 12/31/14 Y/E 12/31/13 YTD 3/31/16
Source: Statistical Surveys, Inc., U.S. and Canada * Thor adjusted to include historical results of Livin’ Lite, Bison Coach, K-Z, Inc., Cruiser RV and DRV Luxury Suites for all periods presented ** Forest River includes Palomino, Coachmen, Prime Time, Shasta and Dynamax *** Jayco adjusted to include historical results of Open Range
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40.9% 41.2% 40.2% 37.9% 35.8% 34.2% 19.5% 20.0% 23.3% 23.9% 25.1% 28.0% 14.4% 16.7% 22.1% 21.9% 22.5% 19.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD** Towable Retail Share* Class A/C Retail Share* Class B Retail Share*
*Source: Statistical Surveys Inc., U.S. and Canada, calendar year 2010-15. Historical results adjusted to include results of Heartland, Livin’ Lite, Bison Coach, K-Z, Inc., Cruiser RV and DRV Luxury Suites for all periods presented. **2016 YTD through March.
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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 1Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2015 1Q2016
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