Investor Presentation September 2015 Notices Forward-Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Investor Presentation September 2015 Notices Forward-Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Investor Presentation September 2015 Notices Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted. This presentation contains forward-looking statements and

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SLIDE 1

Investor Presentation

September 2015

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SLIDE 2

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

  • All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.
  • This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.
  • Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or

projection in the forward-looking information.

  • Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or

making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

  • Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form,

annual MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

  • During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be
  • presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s

annual and quarterly MD&A.

2

Notices

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SLIDE 3

Company Overview

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SLIDE 4

Norbord Snapshot

  • Leading manufacturer of wood-based panel products
  • Largest global producer of Oriented Strand Board (OSB)

– Installed OSB capacity of 8.0 Bsf-3/8” (1) (2) – Installed panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 8.9 Bsf-3/8” (1) (2) – Approximately 2,600 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe

  • Listed on the TSX (“NBD”)
  • Report in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS
  • LTM Q2-2015 sales of $1.5 billion (2)

4

Company Overview

North America Europe

Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Particleboard Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF) Furniture

Europe 20% Canada 37% US 43%

8.9 Bsf-3/8” (1)(2)

Panel Capacity by Region

(1) Does not include the 600 MMsf-3/8” Grande Prairie, Alberta Line 2 (“GP2”) expansion project (2) Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth

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SLIDE 5

$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

West Fraser Canfor Corp. Louisiana-Pacific Norbord Interfor Western Forest Products Conifex

Enterprise Value ($USmm)

The Leading Global OSB Company

5

Company Overview

Top 10 Global OSB Producers Enterprise Value

Source: Bloomberg and company filings. Enterprise values as at Q2 2015

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

Norbord Louisiana-Pacific Georgia-Pacific Weyerhaeuser Kronospan Huber Tolko KronoSwiss Egger Martco

OSB Capacity (Bsf-3/8")

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SLIDE 6

Norbord’s Products

6

Company Overview

OSB – 90% of Capacity

  • Norbord’s operations now include 15 OSB mills and two other plant locations in the UK producing particleboard,

MDF and related value-added products

  • New home construction
  • Repair and remodel
  • Light commercial construction
  • Industrial applications

Particleboard – 6% of Capacity

  • New home construction
  • Repair and remodel
  • Furniture
  • Fixtures

MDF – 4% of Capacity

  • Furniture
  • Fixtures
  • Mill work
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SLIDE 7

Industry Overview

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SLIDE 8

Typical Uses for OSB Products

8

Industry Overview

Wall Sheathing Webstock Flooring Rimboard Door Header Roof Window Header Garage Door Header

  • OSB is an innovative, affordable and environmentally “sustainable” structural panel

– Serves many of the same uses as plywood, but produced at a lower cost

  • Norbord expects OSB will continue to capture market share from plywood

– Currently, OSB represents 66% of total North American structural panels

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SLIDE 9

Global OSB Industry

9

Industry Overview

Industry OSB Capacity (MMsf-3/8”)

10 20 30 North America Europe South America Asia Norbord operates in the two significant global OSB producing regions

Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings

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SLIDE 10

Kronospan 39% KronoSwiss 20% Egger 12% Sonae 7% Smartply 5% Kalavela 4% Others 2%

Industry Capacity 8 Bsf-3/8”

North American & European OSB Industries

10

Industry Overview

Louisiana-Pacific 22% Georgia-Pacific 19% Weyer- haeuser 11% Huber 8% Tolko 8% Martco 3% Other 3%

Industry Capacity 28 Bsf-3/8”

North American OSB Industry

26%

Source: Company documents and other public filings – installed industry capacity

European OSB Industry

11%

Norbord is a significant player in both key markets

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SLIDE 11

Demand Growth Ahead in Both Key Markets

11

Industry Overview

OSB Share of Structural Panels

Source: FEA and Norbord Estimates

0% 25% 50% 75% 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

North America Europe

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SLIDE 12

US Housing Recovery is Real

12

Industry Overview

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015F US Housing Starts (mm) U.S. Housing Starts Underlying Demand

Favourable long-term OSB industry fundamentals

US Housing Starts and Underlying Demand

1.5 mm Over-Built

21.4 22.8 24.0 24.8 25.9 26.9 28.0 28.6 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.1 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.0 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% – 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Effective Demand / Capacity Capacity (Bsf-3/8") Effective Capacity Mothballed Capacity Effective Demand / Capacity

North American OSB Demand and Capacity

3.7 mm Under-Built

Source: US Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of September 2015

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SLIDE 13

North American Capacity Restarted to Meet Growing Demand

13

Industry Overview

39 Mills in Operation 8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed North American OSB Installed Capacity: Norbord Mill 6 Mills (Re)started in 2013

Source: Company documents and other public filings

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SLIDE 14

Attractive North American OSB Price Outlook

14

Industry Overview

North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of September 2015

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Annual Average NC Price US$ per Msf 7/16" Historical Price Forecasted Price

15-year average: $229

  • OSB prices are tied to demand for building products, which is influenced by the general economy,

demographics and the need for housing

  • With US housing recovering, OSB prices are projected to rise above trend
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SLIDE 15

Core European Housing Markets Recovering

15

Industry Overview

50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Housing Starts (000’s) UK +9% in 2014 Germany +4% in 2014

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

European OSB Share of Structural Panels

Source: National House Builder Confederation (NHBC), Construction Products Association (CPA) & Bundesbank

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SLIDE 16
  • Significant growth opportunity – OSB accounts for only ~8% of the structural panel market in Japan

compared to >60% in North America

543 556 505 517 430 460 465 487 550 489 693 729 556 577 358 353 369 396 430 403 1,236 1,285 1,061 1,093 788 813 834 883 980 892 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Wooden All Other

Japanese Housing Market Stable

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Industry Overview

Japanese Housing Starts (000’s)

Source: Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

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SLIDE 17

Business Strategy

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Norbord’s Strategy is Well Defined

18

Business Strategy

Pursue growth in OSB

2

Own high-quality assets with low-cost positions

3

Maintain a margin-focused operating culture

4

Focus on growth customers through best-in-class service and product development

5

Allocate capital with discipline

6

Develop a world-class safety culture

1

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SLIDE 19

Norbord’s Growth Focused on OSB

19

Business Strategy

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Norbord OSB Capacity (Bsf-3/8”)

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SLIDE 20

Margin Improvement is an Operational Priority

20

Business Strategy

37 28 56 9 14 29 16 25 23 24

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

(1) Measured relative to prior year at constant prices and exchange rates (2) The benefits of improved productivity and a richer value-added product mix were offset by higher maintenance spending in 2013

(2)

Margin Improvement Program Gains ($ in millions) “In Control of Our Controllables”

  • Margin Improvement Program

(MIP) gains help offset impact of industry-wide rising input costs:

– Increased productivity – Reduced overhead costs – Reduced raw material usage – Improved product mix

  • MIP has delivered $261 million of

margin improvements over the past 11 years with minimal capital investments

(1)

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SLIDE 21

Further MIP Ahead Through Identified Merger Synergies

21

Business Strategy

Operational Best Practices Corporate Overhead Sales & Logistics

Purchasing Savings Product Specialization Single Public Company

$45 Million in Annual Merger Synergies (1) Achievable over 18-24 months

Ainsworth’s Forming Technology Operational Standardization Continuous Press Experience Order File Optimization

(1) Costs to achieve ~50%

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SLIDE 22

Diversification From European & Asian End Market Exposure

22

Business Strategy

72% 24% 4%

7.0 Bsf-3/8” (1)

LTM Q2-2015 Shipments by Geography (1)

(1) Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth

  • Strong North American footprint
  • Stable margin operations:

– Europe – Asia-focused exports

  • Provides greater diversification than

North American-based competitors

  • Better positioned to weather market

cycles Europe North America Asia

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SLIDE 23

Focused Customer Strategy Sets Norbord Apart

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Business Strategy

(1) Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth

New Home Construction (Pro-Dealers) 50% Repair & Remodel (Big Box) 25% Industrial 20% Export 5% 5.3 Bsf-3/8” (1)

LTM Q2-2015 North American Shipments (1)

  • New housing sales volume growing as US housing starts recover
  • Pro-dealer shipments now represent 50% of Norbord sales volume
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$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Target Capex Greenfield Expansion

24

Business Strategy

Capex Investment (US$ millions)

  • Three main priorities:

–Investing in our mills –Optimizing debt profile –Returning cash to shareholders

Business Strategy

(1) (1) 2015 target reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.

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SLIDE 25

Financial Overview

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$631 $495 $247 $42

  • $60

$0 $107 $45 $188 $287 $117 $67 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Q2- 2015

Norbord (excluding Ainsworth) Adjusted EBITDA Norbord Combined Adjusted EBITDA (1)

Strong Operating Cash Flow Through The Cycle

26

Financial Overview

North Central Benchmark OSB Price $369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $204 US Housing Starts (000s) 1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,058

Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions) 11-year average: $191 million

(1) Results reflect combined performance following completion of merger with Ainsworth

Norbord Sensitivity to North American OSB Price Changes: +$10/Msf 7/16” = +$58 million(1) Adjusted EBITDA (at full capacity)

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Stable Results from European Operations

27

Financial Overview

  • Norbord’s European operations provide greater sales and earnings diversification than
  • ther North American-based competitors

European Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)

58 32 35 81 4 17 37 44 39 46 47 39 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Q2- 2015

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Strong Balance Sheet & Liquidity

28

Financial Overview

Q2 2015 Cash $10 Bank Lines (1) 241 A/R Securitization(2) 75 Liquidity $326 Manageable Debt Maturities (US$ millions) Strong Liquidity Profile (US$ millions) Moody’s Ba2 (Stable) S&P BB- (Stable) DBRS BB (Negative) Stable Issuer Credit Ratings

$200 $240 $315

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

7.70% 5.375% 6.25%

(1) $245 million of bank lines less $4 million outstanding letters of credit drawn at quarter-end (2) $125 million of A/R Securitization limit less $50 million drawn at quarter-end

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Attractive Investment Opportunity

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Summary

Leverage to unfolding US housing recovery

Every +$10 in NA OSB price = +$58 million in Adjusted EBITDA at full capacity

Diversification from European operations and Asian export sales High quality asset base with low operating costs Focused customer strategy and strong customer partnerships Superior margins versus peers Track record of disciplined capital allocation Strong financial liquidity and comfortable debt maturities

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Appendices

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Shareholder Information

31

Appendices

Ticker Symbol TSX: NBD Common Shares 85.4 million outstanding

(as at July 29, 2015)

Quarterly Dividend CAD $0.10 per share

(declared July 30, 2015, to be paid on September 21, 2015 to shareholders of record on September 1, 2015)

Majority Shareholder Brookfield Asset Management – 53%

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SLIDE 32

OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle

32

Appendices

Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Average NC Price US$ per Msf 7/16"

15-year average

Q1 261 132 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 Q2 240 190 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 Q3 171 180 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 Q4 155 140 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 Average 207 160 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218

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Financial Sensitivities

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Appendices (1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges Approximate tax operating loss carry-forwards (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2014 – US $133 million, Canada C$300 million, Belgium €34 million (2) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares)

Exposure Change Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)

(US$ millions)

North American OSB $10 per Msf-7/16” + $58 European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $8 Canadian dollar (2) $0.01 per C$ + $3 Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1

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Analyst Coverage

34

Appendices

Analyst Analyst Name Contact Credit Suisse Andrew Kuske (416) 352-4561 andrew.kuske@credit-suisse.com Dundee Capital Markets Stephen Atkinson (514) 396-0321 satkinson@dundeecapitalmarkets.com ERA Forest Products Research Claire Huxtable (604) 886-5741 chuxtable@ERA-research.com John Tumazos Very Independent Research John Tumazos (732) 444-1083 john@veryindependentresearch.com Raymond James Daryl Swetlishoff (604) 659-8246 daryl.swetlishoff@raymondjames.ca RBC Capital Markets Paul Quinn (604) 257-7048 paul.c.quinn@rbccm.com Scotia Capital Benoit Laprade (514) 287-3627 benoit.laprade@scotiabank.com TD Securities Sean Steuart (416) 308-3399 sean.steuart@tdsecurities.com Vertical Research Partners James Armstrong (212) 256-6157 ja@verticalresearchpartners.com

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SLIDE 35

Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16”

35

Appendices

Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at August 31, 2015. It is not exhaustive. Annual Average North Central Benchmark OSB Price

US$ per Msf 7/16”

Analyst 2015F 2016F Dundee Capital Markets 195 205 Raymond James 215 260 RBC Capital Markets 215 250 Scotia Capital 198 235 TD Securities 203 250 Vertical Research Partners 190 230 Average $203 $238

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SLIDE 36

Norbord Inc. Suite 600 One Toronto Street Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2W4 Canada Tel: 416-365-0705 Fax: 416-365-3292 www.norbord.com