Investor Presentation
February 2017
Investor Presentation February 2017 Disclaimer This presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation February 2017 Disclaimer This presentation is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed to be a prospectus, offering memorandum, advertisement or public offering of any securities of MEG Energy Corp. (MEG).
February 2017
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This presentation is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed to be a prospectus, offering memorandum, advertisement or public offering of any securities of MEG Energy Corp. (“MEG”). Neither the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) nor any other state securities regulator nor any securities regulatory authority in Canada or elsewhere has assessed the merits of MEG’s securities or has reviewed or made any determination as to the truthfulness or completeness of the disclosure in this document. Any representation to the contrary is an offence. Recipients of this presentation are not to construe the contents of this presentation as legal, tax or investment advice and recipients should consult their own advisors in this regard. MEG has not registered (and has no current intention to register) its securities under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “U.S. Securities Act”), or any state securities or “blue sky” laws and MEG is not registered under the United States Investment Act of 1940, as amended. The securities of MEG may not be offered or sold in the United States or to U.S. persons unless registered under the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws or an exemption from such registration is available. Without limiting the foregoing, please be advised that certain financial information relating to MEG contained in this presentation was prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board, which differs from generally accepted accounting principles in the United States and elsewhere. Accordingly, financial information included in this document may not be comparable to financial information of United States issuers. The information concerning petroleum reserves and resources appearing in this document was derived from a report of GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. dated effective as of December 31, 2015, which has been prepared in accordance with the Canadian Securities Administrators National Instrument 51-101 entitled Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”) at that time. The standards of NI 51-101 differ from the standards of the SEC. The SEC generally permits U.S. reporting oil and gas companies in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves, net of royalties and interests of
this presentation concerning our reserves and resources may not be comparable to information made by public issuers subject to the reporting and disclosure requirements of the SEC. There are significant differences in the criteria associated with the classification of reserves and contingent resources. Contingent resource estimates involve additional risk, specifically the risk of not achieving commerciality, not applicable to reserves estimates. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. The estimates of reserves, resources and future net revenue from individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves, resources and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. Further information regarding the estimates and classification of MEG’s reserves and resources is contained within the Corporation’s public disclosure documents on file with Canadian Securities regulatory authorities, and in particular, within MEG’s most recently filed annual information form (the “AIF”). MEG’s public disclosure documents, including the AIF, may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com), at MEG’s website (www.megenergy.com), or by contacting MEG’s investor relations department. Anticipated netbacks are calculated by adding anticipated revenues and other income and subtracting anticipated royalties, operating costs, transportation costs and realized commodity risk management gains(losses) from such amount.
Forward-Looking Information
This document may contain forward-looking information including but not limited to: expectations of future production, revenues, expenses, cash flow, operating costs, steam-oil ratios, regulatory approvals, pricing differentials, reliability, profitability and capital investments; estimates of reserves and resources; the anticipated reductions in operating costs as a result of optimization and scalability of certain operations; and the anticipated sources of funding for operations and capital
future capital and other expenditures, plans for and results of drilling activity, environmental matters, regulatory processes, business prospects and opportunities. By its nature, such forward-looking information involves significant known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. These risks include, but are not limited to: risks associated with the oil and gas industry, for example, the securing of adequate supplies and access to markets and transportation infrastructure; the availability of capacity on the electricity transmission grid; the uncertainty of reserve and resource estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and revenues; health, safety and environmental risks; risks of legislative and regulatory changes to, amongst other things, tax, land use, royalty and environmental laws; assumptions regarding and the volatility of commodity prices, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, and, risks and uncertainties related to commodity price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate swap contracts and/or derivative financial instruments that MEG may enter into from time to time to manage its risk related to such prices and rates; risks and uncertainties associated with securing and maintaining the necessary regulatory approvals and financing to proceed with MEG’s future phases and the expansion and/or operation of MEG’s projects; risks and uncertainties related to the timing of completion, commissioning, and start-up, of MEG’s future phases, expansions and projects; the operational risks and delays in the development, exploration, production, and the capacities and performance associated with MEG's projects; and uncertainties arising in connection with any future disposition of assets. Although MEG believes that the assumptions used in such forward-looking information are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such assumptions will be
may be material. Readers are also cautioned that the foregoing list of assumptions, risks and factors is not exhaustive. Further information regarding the assumptions and risks inherent in the making of forward-looking statements can be found in MEG’s most recently filed AIF, along with MEG's other public disclosure documents. Copies of the AIF and MEG's other public disclosure documents are available through the SEDAR website which is available at www.sedar.com. The forward-looking information included in this document is expressly qualified in its entirety by the foregoing cautionary statements. Unless otherwise stated, the forward-looking information included in this document is made as of the date of this document and MEG assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward- looking information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law.
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Non-GAPP Measures
Certain financial measures within this presentation including cash operating netback and corporate netback are non-GAAP measures. These terms are not defined by International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. These non- GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. Cash operating netback is the per-unit calculation of operating cash flow. Operating cash flow is a non-GAAP measure widely used in the oil and gas industry as a supplemental measure of the Corporation’s efficiency and its ability to fund future capital investments. Operating cash flow is calculated by deducting the related diluent expense, transportation expense, operating expenses, royalties and realized commodity risk management gains or losses from petroleum revenue - proprietary and power revenues. The per unit-calculation of operating cash flow, defined as cash operating netback, is calculated by deducting the related diluent expense, transportation expense, operating expenses, royalties and realized commodity risk management gains or losses from petroleum revenue - proprietary and power revenues, on a per barrel of bitumen sales volume basis. Corporate netback is a further measure of the Corporation’s ability to fund future capital investments. Corporate netback is calculated by further deducting general and administrative expense and net finance expense, on a per barrel of bitumen production volume basis, from cash operating netback.
Market Data
This presentation contains statistical data, market research and industry forecasts that were obtained from government or other industry publications and reports or based on estimates derived from such publications and reports and management’s knowledge of, and experience in, the markets in which MEG operates. Government and industry publications and reports generally indicate that they have obtained their information from sources believed to be reliable, but do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of their information. Often, such information is provided subject to specific terms and conditions limiting the liability of the provider, disclaiming any responsibility for such information, and/or limiting a third party’s ability to rely on such information. None of the authors of such publications and reports has provided any form of consultation, advice or counsel regarding any aspect of, or is in any way whatsoever associated with,
favourable to that industry than would be presented by an independent source. Actual outcomes may vary materially from those forecast in such reports or publications, and the prospect for material variation can be expected to increase as the length of the forecast period increases. While management believes this data to be reliable, market and industry data is subject to variations and cannot be verified due to limits on the availability and reliability of data inputs, the voluntary nature of the data gathering process and other limitations and uncertainties inherent in any market or other survey. Accordingly, the accuracy, currency and completeness of this information cannot be guaranteed. None of MEG, its affiliates or the underwriters has independently verified any of the data from third party sources referred to in this presentation or ascertained the underlying assumptions relied upon by such sources.
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Proved and Probable Reserves
barrels in millions
Regulatory approval in place or in process for nearly 500,000 bpd
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Evaluated by GLJ Exploration lands
Probable
1,514
Proved
1,474
Based on GLJ Reserve Report dated effective as of December 31, 2015 * 2017 production guidance
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Comprehensive refinancing fully-funds growth to ~100,000 bpd, driving lower costs while significantly de-risking the business
2B eMSAGP growth provides clear path to 100 kbpd; 2B brownfield to provide additional upside pending approval
Refinancing provides 5-year window to pursue deleveraging alternatives while growing the business
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low corporate SOR of 2.3x in 2016
Phase 1 where eMSAGP has been deployed since late 2011
MEG continues to effectively execute on its operating strategies and has taken required steps to manage its business through the commodity price downturn
Continuing use of proprietary eMSAGP technology Maintaining production for less Reducing costs, breakevens Strong environmental performance Diversifying markets Active hedging program
sustaining and maintenance capital of $5.65/bbl and $1.15/bbl respectively
since 2014
strategies to diversify markets continue to reduce the differential for MEG’s heavy barrels
below average in-situ producer*
to increase predictability of future cash flows while leaving room to take advantage of improving oil price fundamentals
* In-situ industry average estimate is calculated based on the most recent reported data to Environment Canada, Alberta Energy Regulator, and Alberta Electric System Operator
Near-term opportunities to grow Christina Lake production to >110 kbpd
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* The projects generate sustainable returns through 50-year+ economic lives
Fully-funded by equity financing
non-condensable gas and the drilling of infills which allows for reduced steam requirement, increase production, reducing SORs. Freed up steam is redirected to new well pairs to further grow production.
Additional upside
capability at the central plant and drilling of SAGD well pairs
Fully-funded eMSAGP growth initiative at Christina Lake Phase 2B supports 25% growth in production by early 2019
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MEG’s 2017 annual average production guidance is 80,000 to 82,000 bpd, with production anticipated to exit the year between 86,000 to 89,000 bpd. MEG will commence the 20,000 bpd eMSAGP growth initiative at Christina Lake Phase 2B during 2017, ramping up to full capacity by early 2019.
2B Brownfield growth opportunity to be funded as market conditions permit
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Illustrative impact of production growth on netbacks based on 4Q16 operating results. Example assumes a constant WTI:WCS differential of 29%, $0.75 USD/CAD, and WTI of approximately US$49/bbl, as realized in 4Q16.
Incremental production expected to add minimal operating costs, generates very strong netbacks and is highly accretive to cash flow
Resource recovery on track to exceed 70%, ~10% higher than SAGD
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Phase 1 single well-pattern performance*
* eMSAGP production data reflects average well performance across A1 to A3 (“SAGD
A1 to A3 + average infill (“SAGD + infill”)
eMSAGP deployed across ~30% of MEG’s production base with very consistent results, could be applied to Phase 2B over the next two years
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is required to grow production
more barrels dramatically reduces per barrel operating costs
Lowers SOR and energy costs Increased production Lower capital and
costs Other benefits
eMSAGP and cogeneration have enabled MEG to lower its GHG intensity 30% below in situ industry average
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Sources: MEG”s net GHG data from 2010-2015 has been third-party verified. 2016 data is preliminary. In-situ industry average estimate is calculated based on the most recent reported data to Environment Canada, Alberta Energy Regulator, and Alberta Electric System Operator. * Phase start-up: higher steam requirements with low initial production ** Net GHG intensity includes the associated benefits of cogeneration
C$ per barrel unless specified
Ongoing efficiency gains drive lower operating costs and reduce MEG’s breakeven costs in a low oil price environment
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* Operating breakevens calculated based on actual data, period FX and differentials ** Net finance expense includes accretion on provisions, unrealized gain/loss
swaps and is adjusted for capitalized interest
Sustainable cost savings achieved through continued technological advancement and reductions in overall cost base
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At current strip prices, MEG anticipates its US$2.5 billion revolver will be undrawn at the end of 2016
* Per barrel non-energy operating costs are calculated based on sales volume; per barrel G&A expense are calculated based on production volume as per MD&A.
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Non-energy operating costs
Operational Guidance*
Average production
*Takes into account a major turnaround at Phase 2 and a minor turnaround at Phase 2B, both during 2Q17
Capital Investment Plan
sustaining capital per barrel
excluding turnaround costs of approximately $34M
C$ millions
growth initiative to be spent in 2017
EMVAPEX, marketing, & other
70
2B eMSAGP growth
320
Sustaining & maintenance
200
Exit production
Debt refinancing retains covenant-lite structure, extends weighted-average life
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Excludes 1% annual amortization on the 1st lien term loan. Debt maturity profile does not include the EDC-backed letters of credit facility. The 5-year undrawn credit facility has no financial maintenance covenants and is not subject to annual borrowing base redetermination
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MEG has the highest available liquidity MEG has the longest runway and maturity profile MEG has a unique structure amongst its peers
Sources: Company dislosure, FactSet Note: Weighted average maturity calculation assumes revolver is fully drawn; excludes accordion features and finance lease obligations. Comparison based on oil and gas peers with EVs between $2 bn and $15 bn, including: ARX, BIR, BNP, BTE, CPG, ERF, PEY, PGF, RRX, TOU, VII, VET, WCP.
MEG’s objective is to set a floor price, at or above cash costs, while leaving room to take advantage of improving oil price fundamentals
20 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 2017 Crude oil hedges in place as of 11th January 2017
* Percentage of hedged volumes are based on the mid-point of 2017 annual production guidance
** Includes certain "physical" hedges where forward sales based on fixed differentials have been contracted
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www.megenergy.com/investors Helen Kelly
Director, Investor Relations 403.767.6206 helen.kelly@megenergy.com
John Rogers
VP, Investor Relations and External Communications 403.770.5335 john.rogers@megenergy.com