Investor presentation
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
April, 2018
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Investor presentation Millicom International Cellular S.A. April, 2018 Disclaimer This presentation may contain certain forward - looking statements with respect to Millicoms expectations and plans, strategy, managements objectives,
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
April, 2018
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This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements” with respect to Millicom’s expectations and plans, strategy, management’s
could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements depending on various important factors. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on information available to Millicom on the date hereof. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Millicom International Cellular S.A., any Millicom International Cellular S.A. employees or representatives acting on Millicom’s behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the factors referred to above. Millicom does not intend to update these forward-looking statements.
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1 Our journey... Big picture 2 Capital allocation and ROIC 3 Latin America service revenue and EBITDA 4 Currency exposure… myths and reality 5 Latin America service revenue by business unit 6 Market structure by country 7 Spectrum and licenses 8 Latam snapshot - Macro 9 Latam snapshot - Micro 10 Latest results summary
We have been transforming the company in many ways FROM TO
Mobile-only Voice + SMS Prepaid Legacy network Analog Legacy IT Product & Sales Driven No Geographic Focus Deteriorating margins Dividend at risk Negative eFCF
STRATEGY NETWORK CUSTOMER CAPITAL ALLOCATION RETURNS
Cable + convergence High-speed data (4G) Subscription-driven Compliance leader Purpose driven State-of-the-Art (4G, HFC) Digital OTT like Customer Centric High-speed data networks IT transformation Latam-only Improving margins Dividend covered Positive eFCF
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Reported Capex (excl. Spectrum, licences and finance lease capitalization), $m, FY 15 – FY17
Total Capex
Group return on invested capital, %, FY 15 – FY 17
Return on Capital*
Re-deploying capital to Latam allows us to accelerate network build and improve returns
1,031 1,273 2016 Africa Latam Mobile Latam Fixed 2017 993 2015
Total Latam +4.6%
+450 bps 2017 16.2% 2016 13.1% 2015 11.7% 18.9% 16.5% % of Revenue Reported Group EBITDA less capex, $m, FY 15 – FY17
OCF (EBITDA – Capex)
905 1,141 1,197 +650 bps 2017 2016 2015 18.3% 19.9% % of Revenue 13.4% ROIC : NOPAT/Invested Capital 16.5%
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Contribution by country – FY 2017
Full consolidation Proportionate Contribution
Service revenue EBITDA
ELS 8% GT 23% HN 11% CR 3% BO 11% CO 32% PY 12% ELS 7% GT 31% HN 12% CR 3% BO 10% CO 22% PY 15% ELS 11% GT 18% HN 11% CR 5% BO 15% CO 23% PY 17% ELS 10% GT 24% HN 12% CR 4% BO 14% CO 15% PY 21%
ELS: El Salvador GT: Guatemala HN: Honduras CR: Costa Rica BO: Bolivia CO: Colombia PY: Paraguay
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Latam EBITDA by country, adjusted for proportional Millicom ownership, and ranked by currency volatility, 2017
Proportionate Latam EBITDA
Only 15% of our proportional EBITDA is from high volatility FX country
Bloomberg Weekly FX rates vs USD, 2008 - 2017
10-year FX trends
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BOB 14% ELS 10% COP 15% HNL 12% CRC 4% PYG 21% GTQ 24% High volatility Moderate volatility Low volatility
COP, 153 PYG, 122 GTQ, 95 HNL, 125 BOB, 92 BRL, 182 MXN, 171 CRC, 115 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
36% 48% 15%
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ELS: El Salvador (US Dollar) GTQ: Guatemalan Quetzal HNL: Honduran Lempira CRC: Costa Rican Colon BOB: Bolivian Bolivianos COP: Colombian Pesos PYG: Paraguayan Guarani
Service revenue, FY 2017
El Salvador Bolivia
Contribution in FY 2017
Guatemala Colombia Honduras Paraguay
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Mobile B2C Data 23% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 36% Home 26% B2B 15% Mobile B2C Data 34% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 46% Home 8% B2B 12% Mobile B2C Data 25% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 52% Home 8% B2B 15% Mobile B2C Data 45% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 30% Home 12% B2B 13% Mobile B2C Data 17% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 19% Home 35% B2B 29% Mobile B2C Data 29% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 34% Home 24% B2B 13%
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Bolivia Mobile 2nd 1st 3rd NA NA BBI 1st 4th NA 3rd 2nd PayTv 1st 3rd NA NA 2nd Colombia Mobile 3rd 1st 2nd 6th 4th 5th NA BBI 2nd 1st 3rd 4th NA NA 5th PayTv 2nd 1st 4th 5th NA NA 3rd Paraguay Mobile 1st 3rd 2nd 4th BBI 1st 3rd 2nd PayTV 1st 2nd 3rd 5th El Salvador Mobile 1st 3rd 2nd 4th NA NA BBI 2nd 1st NA NA NA NA PayTV 1st 2nd NA NA 4th 3rd Guatemala Mobile 1st 2nd 3rd BBI 2nd 1st NA PayTv 1st 2nd NA Honduras Mobile 1st 2nd NA NA NA NA BBI 1st 3rd 2nd 4th NA NA Pay TV 2nd 3rd 1st 4th
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Sources: MIC estimates
All amounts in 2xMHz
El Salvador Bolivia
Spectrum auctions possible in ELS, CO, HN, and GT and in next 3 years
Guatemala Colombia Honduras Paraguay
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7.5 12.5 18.0 10.0 25.0 5.0 5.0 10.0 18.0 27.5 25.0 Digicel Movistar Claro Tigo 22.5 Low band 2G/3G High band 4G High band 2G/3G Low band 4G 14.0 15.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 15.0 6.0 10.0 26.0 35.0 Movistar Claro Tigo 34.0 0.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 20.0 60.0 Hondutel Claro Tigo 45.0 12.5 12.5 12.0 10.0 10.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Viva Entel Tigo 49.5 57.5 35.0 12.5 12.5 12.5 15.0 27.5 15.0 15.0 15.0 Movistar Claro Tigo 42.5 42.5 40.0 12.5 12.5 17.5 10.0 10.0 5.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 57.5 Tigo Personal Vox Copaco Claro 37.5 52.5 40.0
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FY 2017 Colombia Guatemala Bolivia Honduras Paraguay El Salvador Costa Rica GDP growth (2018e)* 2.8% 3.4% 4.0% 3.6% 4.0% 2.1% 3.8% GDP per capita (2018e)* $ 14,990 $ 8,440 $ 7,870 $ 5,730 $ 10,230 $ 9,260 $ 17,930 Inflation (2018e)* 3.1% 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% Population (m) 47.2 15.2 10.9 8.9 6.8 6.2 4.9 Homes (m) 14.0 2.0 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 Mobile Subscribers (000) 7,851 10,169 3,303 4,625 3,167 2,796
1,633 361 231 150 368 312 247 Penetration** Mobile 113% 108% 91% 101% 107% 156%
48% 31% 11% 11% 14% 25% 42% PayTv 44% 32% 20% 44% 37% 23% 61% Market Position Mobile 3 of 5 1 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 3 1 of 4 1 of 4 NA Broadband 2 of 4 2 of 3 1 of >10 1 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 3 2 of 8 Pay TV 2 of 4 1 of 3 1 of 5 2 of 5 1 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 4
Sources: * IMF DataMapper – World Economic Outlook http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO ** Dataxis : Mobile penetration as % of population and Fixed Broadband penetration as % of households and JPMorgan : PayTV as % of households
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FY 2017 Colombia Guatemala Bolivia Honduras Paraguay El Salvador Costa Rica Financials Revenue $ 1,739m $ 1,328m $ 555m $ 586m $ 662m $ 422m $ 149m EBITDA $ 469m $ 665m $ 217m $ 265m $ 318m $ 155m $ 62m EBITDA% 27.0% 50.1% 39.1% 45.3% 48.0% 36.6% 41.5% Gross debt $ 1,130m $ 995m $ 352m $ 388m $ 488m $ 147m $ 76m Net debt $ 937m $ 686m $ 243m $ 366m $ 360m $ 116m $ 68m Leverage 2.0x 1.0x 1.1x 1.3x 1.1x 0.8x 1.2x MIC ownership 50% 55% 100% 66.7% 100% 100% 100%
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Growth continues to accelerate
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
Mauricio Ramos, CEO Tim Pennington, CFO July 20th, 2018
This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements” with respect to Millicom’s expectations and plans, strategy, management’s objectives, future performance, costs, revenue, earnings and other trend information. It is important to note that Millicom’s actual results in the future could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements depending on various important factors. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on information available to Millicom on the date hereof. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Millicom International Cellular S.A., any Millicom International Cellular S.A. employees or representatives acting on Millicom’s behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the factors referred to above. Millicom does not intend to update these forward-looking statements.
This information was prior to this release inside information and is information that Millicom is obliged to make public pursuant to the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This information was submitted for publication, through the agency of the contact person set out above, at 22:00 CET on July 19th 2018 15
Mauricio Ramos
Latam service revenue growth accelerated to 5.5% on continued strong net adds All revenue lines contributing to growth - Mobile back above 2% Home growth accelerated to almost 13% with 140k new HFC homes Continued margin expansion and double-digit FCF growth Additional listing on U.S. Stock Exchange next year Growth continues to accelerate
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Latam %YoY growth, Q1 16 – Q2 18
Q316
Q216 0.9% Q116 2.9% Q417 3.1% 2.3% Q117
Q416
Q217 5.5% 3.9% Q118 Q317 Q218
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Service revenue, year-on-year (%), Q1 16 – Q2 18
El Salvador Bolivia
Guatemala Colombia Honduras Paraguay
Q218 Q118
2.1%
Q417
5.4%
Q317
0.3%
Q217
Q117
Q416
Q316
Q216
Q116
Q218 Q118
5.7%
Q417
3.4%
Q317
3.5%
Q217
Q117
Q416
Q316
Q216
Q116
2.7% 6.4%
Q218 Q118
0.0%
Q417
Q317
Q217
0.0%
Q117
Q416
Q316
Q216
Q116
0.3%
Q218 Q118
6.5%
Q117
0.5%
Q416
Q316
2.0%
Q417
9.1%
Q317
6.1%
Q217
2.6%
Q216
4.7%
Q116
5.5% 15.7%
Q416
Q316
Q216
0.6%
Q116
2.3%
Q317
0.3%
Q217
Q117
5.8%
Q218 Q118
2.2%
Q417 Q317
6.5%
Q217
4.5%
Q117
2.9%
Q218 Q118
7.8%
Q417
8.9%
Q416
2.1%
Q316
3.3%
Q216
6.2% 6.2%
Q116
7.1%
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B2B service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q2 18
B2B (18% of service revenue)
Home service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q2 18
Home (24% of service revenue)
Mobile B2C service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q2 18
Mobile B2C (56% of service rev)
Q218 2.1% Q118 0.9% Q417 0.2% Q317
Q217
Q117
7.3% Q117 7.3% Q218 12.6% Q118 7.6% Q417 7.1% Q317 8.8% Q217 7.1% Q118 8.9% Q417 6.4% Q317 5.7% Q217 1.4% Q117 2.5% Q218
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Mobile data now generating 50% of mobile service revenue and driving better ARPU
Population coverage and points of presence (PoP), Q2 17 – Q2 18
Build
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4G subscribers (millions), Q1 17 – Q2 18
Connect
YoY% growth in local currency, Q2 15 – Q2 18
ARPU
Mobile data service revenue as % of mobile B2C service revenue, Q2 15 – Q2 18
Mobile data penetration
7,744 5,257 Q218 60% Q217 50% PoP Coverage 8.0 4.7 +3.2 Q218 Q118 Q417 Q317 Q217 Q117 45% Q117 42% Q218 50% Q118 48% Q417 47% Q317 46% Q217
Q417 1.0% Q118 Q218
Q317
Q217
Q117
+2.1%
YoY LC growth
Expanding fibre
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Building datacenters Colombia contributes over 50% Small and medium business
110,000 kilometers of fibre in Latin America Tier III data centers launched in Colombia, Paraguay and Bolivia Solutions revenue grows
The first half of 2018 has seen in Colombia an accelerated revenue thanks to the contract to provide communications for the elections SMBs remain a key source for growth as we continue to develop B2B solutions and expand our coverage in our markets. ~250,000 SMBs customers ~40% of B2B revenue +7.1%
YoY LC growth
Raising our 2018 target to 400k homes connected net additions
HFC homes passed (000), Q2 15 – Q2 18
Build
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HFC homes connected net additions (000), H1 16 – H1 18
Connect
$ per month, Q2 15 – Q2 18
ARPU
9,076 7,850 6,667 5,873 +15.6% Q2 18 Q2 17 Q2 16 Q2 15 +3,203 117 179 56 52 231 H1 17 132 15 H1 16 H1 18 +4.2% Q2 18 29.6 Q2 17 28.4 Q2 16 27.3 HFC homes connected/HFC homes passed, Q2 15 – Q2 18
Penetration
Q2 18 28.2% Q2 17 28.1% Q2 16 29.7% Q2 15 30.9% Inorganic Organic
+12.6%
YoY LC growth
Contribution to Latam service revenue growth year-on-year, Q2 2018
Contribution to growth by business unit
Home is 24% of revenue but 50% of growth
Q2 18 5.5% Home Mobile B2C B2B
Growth Weight*
2% 13% 7% 56% 24% 18%
* Does not tie to 100% as revenue categories exclude Other, equal to 1% of total
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Planting the seeds for sustainable and profitable long term growth
Colombia - Growth YoY in homes connected, Q1 17 – Q2 18
Passed the inflection point
Colombia - LTM homes connected net additions, HFC and Other, Q216 – Q218
HFC homes connected growth accelerating
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34 75 95 Q2 17 Q2 16 Q2 18 Net Other HFC Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q2 18 1.5% Q1 18 0.8%
Solid FCF generation while we invest to drive faster growth
$m, H1 16 – H2 18
EFCF up 16% YTD
39 129 149 H1 18 H1 16 15.7% H1 17
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Tim Pennington
Strong KPI’s driving through to key financial metrics EBITDA growth driven by core Latam businesses…and cost control All P&L profit metrics improving… …and cashflow continues to strengthen Balance sheet in good shape Well positioned to face the future
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$m, Q2 17 – Q2 18
Service Revenuea
Group service revenue up 5.3%
1,365 1,437 Q2 18 Q2 17 5.3% $m and %, Q2 17 – Q2 18
EBITDAa and Margins
527 551 4.6% Q2 18 Q2 17 $m and margin, Q2 17 – Q2 18
Q2 OCF and Marginsb
a) Q2 17 numbers are adjusted to Q2 18 FX rates and exclude Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana b) Excluding Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana, spectrum & license costs
35.7% 35.8%
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294 335 $41m Q2 18 Q2 17
20.0% 21.7%
$m and margin, Q2 17 – Q2 18 $m and margin, Q2 17 – Q2 18
Solid growth returning to Latam
$m, Q2 17 – Q2 18
Latam service revenue
+5.5% Q2 18 1,308 Q2 17 1,240 +4.4% Q2 18 514 Q2 17 492 21.5% Q2 17 20.9% Q2 18 +7.2% 304
Notes: Growth rates are organic and exclude the impact of changes in FX rates, accounting, and new segmental presentation. Q2 2017 figures have been adjusted to reflect these organic growth rates. Capex/revenue excludes spectrum & license costs
Latam EBITDA Latam OCF
36.5% 36.4%
Capex / Revenue
15.6% 14.8%
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Latam biggest contributor to EBITDA growth
$ million, Q2 17 – Q2 18
EBITDA evolution by region
2 23 LatAm Africa 551 Corporate 527 FX and other +4.6% Ebitda Q2 18 +0.6% 3 Ebitda Q2 17 524 Ebitda Q2 17 (constant currency)
35.7% 35.8%
as % of revenue
Q2 17 numbers are adjusted to Q2 18 FX rates and exclude Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana
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EBITDA ($m), margin and year-on-year growth, Q2 17 – Q2 18
El Salvador Bolivia
Strong performance in Bolivia and a return to EBITDA growth in Colombia
Guatemala Colombia Honduras Paraguay
172 165 +5.7% Q2 18 Q2 17 32 38 Q2 17 (16.8%) Q2 18 127 114 6.9% Q2 18 Q2 17 59 51 +17.5% Q2 18 Q2 17 60 63 (3.4%) Q2 18 Q2 17 83 77 +8.1% Q2 18 Q2 17 EBITDA
35.6% 30.7% 50.6% 50.6% 42.8% 41.2% 38.0% 38.6% 26.6% 27.5% 46.5% 48.4%
Margins
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Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 – Q2 2018
Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin
Steady upward margin trend continues
OPEX and growth* YoY, Q2 17 – Q2 18
Group total OPEX base
35.3% Q2 16 33.3% Q2 15 32.6% +370 bps Q2 18 36.3% Q2 17 3.3% Q2 18 558 Q2 17 Sales and Marketing General and Adminstration
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* Excludes IFRS 15
+2.4% +4.2%
P&L Summary Key Observations
US$ million Q2 18 Q2 17 % Var Revenue 1,541 1,470 4.8% EBITDA 551 524 5.2% Depreciation & amortization (315) (326) (3.3%) Other operating 20 (1) NM Operating profit 256 197 30.0% Net financial expense (107) (120) (10.5%) Others non operating (20) (17) 18.1% Associates (48) (25) 96.3% Profit before tax 80 35 127.2% Taxes (61) (60) 0.6% Minority interests (19) (9) NM Discontinued operations (2) 6 NM Net income (1) (27) NM EPS ($ per share) (0.01) (0.27) NM
Revenue (-1.3%) and EBITDA (+0.5%)
activity, offset by higher financial lease expense
A B C A B C D D
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Significant profit improvement below EBITDA
We generated $149 million of equity FCF in H1
$ million
H1 2018 cash flow
476 91 135 180 79 149 229 544 1,111 Dividend to minorities FCF Finance charges Cash capex (ex-spectrum and licenses) Ebitda including discontinued
Taxes paid Cash flow from
Working capital and others eFCF
36.4% 17.8% 7.5%
as % of revenue
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30 June 2018
Debt profile
In H1 net debt reduced by $90m and proportionate leverage below 2.0x
$ million, 31 December 2017 – 30 June 2018
Net debt evolution in 2018
52 133 196 149 49 Dividend Net debt Q2 2018 FX and
3,981 M&A and towers Lease capitalization 21 Spectrum Equity FCF Net debt YE 2017 4,071 1.86x 1.80x 2.02x 1.95x Net debt/LTM EBITDA Proportionate Net debt/ Proportionate LTM EBITDA
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Maturity Local 41% Variable 30% FX exposure Fixed or Swapped 70% Less than 5y 40% 5Y or more 60% Hard currency 59% Banks 38% Latam 72% Interest rates Bonds 55% HQ 23% Geography Source Africa 5% Fin. Leases 7%
+231k HFC homes connected (+179k organic)
10m total homes passed by year-end
+1.1m 4G customer net additions
10m 4G customers by year-end
Service revenue growth in Latam EBITDA growth on track Updating our full year targets Target +300k +3m +2-4% +3-6%
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Update ~400k Top-end of range
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Our strategy is working Growth is accelerating Solid first half on financials and KPIs 2018 outlook improving Strengthened balance sheet and growing cash flow U.S. listing in 2019
Q&A
Comfortable capital structure and liquidity with no major maturities until 2024
$ million
Debt maturity profile
39 47 44 40 86 >2027 737 28s $500m 796 25s $500m 2024 988 GT $800m 2023 457 2021 347 32 2020 25 2018 101 10 2026 149 28 2025 2022 708 PY $300m 400 26 2019 546 SEK $224m International Bonds Local Bonds (Colombia & Bolivia) Finance leases Bank and DFI
Average life of 5.1 years
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Central America: Total debt $1,774m 32% guaranteed South America: Total debt $1,964m 4% guaranteed Africa: Total debt $285m 54% guaranteed Total MIC Debt: $5,228m 15% Guaranteed Corporate: Total debt $1,205m 0% guaranteed Chad: $64m (96% guaranteed) Tanzania: $113m (0% guaranteed) Zantel: $108m (86% guaranteed) Paraguay: $501m (13% guaranteed) Bolivia: $343m (4% guaranteed) El Salvador: $245m (92% guaranteed) Honduras: $390m (51% guaranteed) Guatemala: $993m (0% guaranteed) Costa Rica: $147m (100% guaranteed) Colombia $1,119m (0% guaranteed)
Including finance leases
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Central America: $1,330m Leverage 1.15x South America: $1,585m Leverage 1.55x Africa: $124m Leverage 0.76x Total Net Debt: $3,981m Leverage 1.80x Chad: $43m Tanzania: $(15)m Zantel: $97m Paraguay: $392m Leverage 1.2x Bolivia: $261m Leverage 1.2x El Salvador: $218m Leverage 1.4x Honduras: $371m Leverage 1.4x Guatemala: $650m Leverage 1.0x Costa Rica: $96m Leverage 1.7x Colombia: $933m Leverage 2.0x
Including finance leases; Leverage is Net debt / LTM EBITDA
Corporate $942m
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*El Salvador has USD as functional currency (treated as local.)
June 2018 Debt including finance leases Cash Net debt US$ Local Total Total USD Local Total Latin America* 1,766 1,972 3,738 823 1,372 1,544 2,915 47% 53% 100% 47% 53% 100% Africa 110 175 285 161 105 19 124 38% 62% 100% 85% 15% 100% Corporate 1,205 1,205 264 950
942 100% 0% 100% 101%
100% Millicom 3,081 2,147 5,228 1,247 2,427 1,554 3,981 59% 41% 100% 61% 39% 100%
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