Investor presentation
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
October, 2018
Investor presentation Millicom International Cellular S.A. October, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor presentation Millicom International Cellular S.A. October, 2018 Disclaimer This presentation may contain certain forward - looking statements with respect to Millicoms expectations and plans, strategy, managements
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
October, 2018
Disclaimer
2
This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements” with respect to Millicom’s expectations and plans, strategy, management’s
could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements depending on various important factors. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on information available to Millicom on the date hereof. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Millicom International Cellular S.A., any Millicom International Cellular S.A. employees or representatives acting on Millicom’s behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the factors referred to above. Millicom does not intend to update these forward-looking statements.
Contents
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1 Our journey... Big picture 2 Capital allocation and ROIC 3 Latin America service revenue and EBITDA 4 Currency exposure… myths and reality 5 Latin America service revenue by business unit 6 Market structure by country 7 Spectrum and licenses 8 Latam snapshot - Macro 9 Latam snapshot - Micro 10 Latest results summary
Our journey… big picture
We have been transforming the company in many ways FROM TO
Mobile-only Voice + SMS Prepaid Legacy network Analog Legacy IT Product & Sales Driven No Geographic Focus Deteriorating margins Dividend at risk Negative eFCF
STRATEGY NETWORK CUSTOMER CAPITAL ALLOCATION RETURNS
Cable + convergence High-speed data (4G) Subscription-driven Compliance leader Purpose driven State-of-the-Art (4G, HFC) Digital OTT like Customer Centric High-speed data networks IT transformation Latam-only Improving margins Dividend covered Positive eFCF
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Capital allocation and ROIC
Reported Capex (excl. Spectrum, licences and finance lease capitalization), $m, FY 15 – FY17
Total Capex
Group return on invested capital, %, FY 15 – FY 17
Return on Capital*
Re-deploying capital to Latam allows us to accelerate network build and improve returns
1,031 1,273 2016 Africa Latam Mobile Latam Fixed 2017 993 2015
Total Latam +4.6%
+450 bps 2017 16.2% 2016 13.1% 2015 11.7% 18.9% 16.5% % of Revenue Reported Group EBITDA less capex, $m, FY 15 – FY17
OCF (EBITDA – Capex)
905 1,141 1,197 +650 bps 2017 2016 2015 18.3% 19.9% % of Revenue 13.4% ROIC : NOPAT/Invested Capital 16.5%
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Contribution by country – FY 2017
Latin America service revenue and EBITDA
Full consolidation Proportionate Contribution
Service revenue EBITDA
ELS 8% GT 23% HN 11% CR 3% BO 11% CO 32% PY 12% ELS 7% GT 31% HN 12% CR 3% BO 10% CO 22% PY 15% ELS 11% GT 18% HN 11% CR 5% BO 15% CO 23% PY 17% ELS 10% GT 24% HN 12% CR 4% BO 14% CO 15% PY 21%
ELS: El Salvador GT: Guatemala HN: Honduras CR: Costa Rica BO: Bolivia CO: Colombia PY: Paraguay
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Latam EBITDA by country, adjusted for proportional Millicom ownership, and ranked by currency volatility, 2017
Proportionate Latam EBITDA
Only 15% of our proportional EBITDA is from high volatility FX country
Currency exposure… myths and reality
Bloomberg Weekly FX rates vs USD, 2008 – 2018 (Aug)
10-year FX trends
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GTQ 24% BOB 14% ELS 10% HNL 12% PYG 21% CRC 4% COP 15% Low volatility High volatility Moderate volatility 36% 48% 15%
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ELS: El Salvador (US Dollar) GTQ: Guatemalan Quetzal HNL: Honduran Lempira CRC: Costa Rican Colon BOB: Bolivian Bolivianos COP: Colombian Pesos PYG: Paraguayan Guarani
COP, 147.5 PYG, 121.0 GTQ, 98.0 HNL, 127.2 CRC, 114.1 BRL, 232.2 MXN, 172.3 BOB, 90.4
Service revenue, FY 2017
El Salvador Bolivia
Contribution in FY 2017
Latam service revenue by business unit
Guatemala Colombia Honduras Paraguay
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Mobile B2C Data 23% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 36% Home 26% B2B 15% Mobile B2C Data 34% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 46% Home 8% B2B 12% Mobile B2C Data 25% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 52% Home 8% B2B 15% Mobile B2C Data 45% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 30% Home 12% B2B 13% Mobile B2C Data 17% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 19% Home 35% B2B 29% Mobile B2C Data 29% Mobile B2C Voice & Other 34% Home 24% B2B 13%
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Market structure by country
Bolivia Mobile 2nd 1st 3rd NA NA BBI 1st 4th NA 3rd 2nd PayTv 1st 3rd NA NA 2nd Colombia Mobile 3rd 1st 2nd 6th 4th 5th NA BBI 2nd 1st 3rd 4th NA NA 5th PayTv 2nd 1st 4th 5th NA NA 3rd Paraguay Mobile 1st 3rd 2nd 4th BBI 1st 3rd 4th 2nd PayTV 1st 2nd 3rd 5th El Salvador Mobile 1st 3rd 2nd 4th NA NA BBI 2nd 1st NA NA NA NA PayTV 1st 2nd NA NA 4th 3rd Guatemala Mobile 1st 2nd 3rd BBI 2nd 1st NA PayTv 1st 2nd NA Honduras Mobile 1st 2nd NA NA NA NA BBI 1st 3rd 2nd 4th NA NA Pay TV 2nd 3rd 1st 4th
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Sources: MIC estimates
All amounts in 2xMHz
El Salvador Bolivia
Spectrum auctions possible in ELS, CO, HN, and GT and in next 3 years
Spectrum and licenses
Guatemala Colombia Honduras Paraguay
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7.5 12.5 18.0 10.0 25.0 5.0 5.0 10.0 18.0 27.5 25.0 Digicel Movistar Claro Tigo 22.5 Low band 2G/3G High band 4G High band 2G/3G Low band 4G 14.0 15.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 15.0 6.0 10.0 26.0 35.0 Movistar Claro Tigo 34.0 0.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 20.0 60.0 Hondutel Claro Tigo 45.0 12.5 12.5 12.0 10.0 10.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Viva Entel Tigo 49.5 57.5 35.0 12.5 12.5 12.5 15.0 27.5 15.0 15.0 15.0 Movistar Claro Tigo 42.5 42.5 40.0 12.5 12.5 17.5 10.0 10.0 5.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 57.5 Tigo Personal Vox Copaco Claro 37.5 52.5 40.0
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FY 2017 Colombia Guatemala Bolivia Honduras Paraguay El Salvador Costa Rica GDP growth (2018e)* 2.8% 3.4% 4.0% 3.6% 4.0% 2.1% 3.8% GDP per capita (2018e)* $ 14,990 $ 8,440 $ 7,870 $ 5,730 $ 10,230 $ 9,260 $ 17,930 Inflation (2018e)* 3.1% 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% Population (m) 47.2 15.2 10.9 8.9 6.8 6.2 4.9 Homes (m) 14.0 2.0 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 Mobile Subscribers (000) 7,851 10,169 3,303 4,625 3,167 2,796
1,633 361 231 150 368 312 247 Penetration** Mobile 113% 108% 91% 101% 107% 156%
48% 31% 11% 11% 14% 25% 42% PayTv 44% 32% 20% 44% 37% 23% 61% Market Position Mobile 3 of 5 1 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 3 1 of 4 1 of 4 NA Broadband 2 of 4 2 of 3 1 of >10 1 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 3 2 of 8 Pay TV 2 of 4 1 of 3 1 of 5 2 of 5 1 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 4
Sources: * IMF DataMapper – World Economic Outlook http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO ** Dataxis : Mobile penetration as % of population and Fixed Broadband penetration as % of households and JPMorgan : PayTV as % of households
Latam snapshot - Macro
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FY 2017 Colombia Guatemala Bolivia Honduras Paraguay El Salvador Costa Rica Financials Revenue $ 1,739m $ 1,328m $ 555m $ 586m $ 662m $ 422m $ 149m EBITDA $ 469m $ 665m $ 217m $ 265m $ 318m $ 155m $ 62m EBITDA% 27.0% 50.1% 39.1% 45.3% 48.0% 36.6% 41.5% Gross debt $ 1,130m $ 995m $ 352m $ 388m $ 488m $ 147m $ 76m Net debt $ 937m $ 686m $ 243m $ 366m $ 360m $ 116m $ 68m Leverage 2.0x 1.0x 1.1x 1.3x 1.1x 0.8x 1.2x MIC ownership 50% 55% 100% 66.7% 100% 100% 100%
Latam snapshot - Micro
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Latest results summary
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Cable expansion accelerating
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
Mauricio Ramos, CEO Tim Pennington, CFO October 24th, 2018
Disclaimer
This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements” with respect to Millicom’s expectations and plans, strategy, management’s objectives, future performance, costs, revenue, earnings and other trend information. It is important to note that Millicom’s actual results in the future could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements depending on various important factors. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on information available to Millicom on the date hereof. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Millicom International Cellular S.A., any Millicom International Cellular S.A. employees or representatives acting on Millicom’s behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the factors referred to above. Millicom does not intend to update these forward-looking statements.
This information was prior to this release inside information and is information that Millicom is obliged to make public pursuant to the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This information was submitted for publication, through the agency of the contact person set out above, at 22:00 CET on October 23rd 2018 15
Mauricio Ramos
Q3 Highlights
Strong operating momentum continues Colombia growing Spotlight on Cable Cable Onda Cable expansion accelerating
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Latam %YoY growth, Q1 16 – Q3 18
Latam service revenue growth
Service revenue growth in line with plan 1
Q317 Q416 Q418 Q218 Q117
Q216 2.9%
Q318 Q116 0.9% Q316
Q217 2.3% 3.1% Q417 3.4% Q118 5.5% 4.7%
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Note: Q1 2018 and Q2 2018 figures re-presented to reflect application of IFRS 15 on wholesale international traffic business in Colombia.
B2B service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q3 18
B2B (16% of service revenue)
Home service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q3 18
Home (25% of service revenue)
All three business units growing 1
Mobile B2C service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q3 18
Mobile B2C (58% of service rev)
Q417
Q117 Q217 Q317 0.2% 0.9% Q118 2.1% Q218 1.0% Q318 Q317 Q417 Q117 8.8% 7.1% 7.3% 7.3% Q217 7.6% Q118 12.6% Q218 12.5% Q318 Q317 2.5% Q117 Q417 Q217 1.4% Q318 5.7% 6.6% 6.4% Q118 7.5% Q218 6.5%
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Note: Q1 2018 and Q2 2018 B2B figures re-presented to reflect application of IFRS 15 on wholesale international traffic business in Colombia.
Latam B2C Mobile postpaid net additions, (000)s, 9M16 – 9M18
Improved performance in postpaid
B2C Mobile growing in 4G and postpaid 1
Latam B2C Mobile 4G subscribers (millions), Q3 16 – Q3 18
Steadily growing our 4G customer base
2.4 5.6 8.6 Q3 17 Q3 16 Q3 18 +52%
46 135 9M 16 9M 18 9M 17 192% 20
Latam HFC homes connected (000) 9M 2016 – 9M 2018
Connecting more HFC Homes
Home growth drivers trending higher 1
Latam Home ARPU ($/month) Q3 2016 – Q3 2018
ARPU rising
Q3 2016 27.1 28.2 Q3 2017 28.9 Q3 2018 +2% 116 202 313 9M 18 9M 16 9M 17 +55%
Latam HFC RGU net additions (000) 9M 2016 – 9M 2018
Adding more HFC RGUs
362 510 679 9M 16 9M 18 9M 17 +33% 21
Colombia Home KPIs continue to improve
Colombia investments starting to pay off in Home 2
Colombia – Home ARPU $, Q3 16 – Q3 18
Home ARPU rising
Colombia - LTM homes connected net additions, HFC and Other, Q316 – Q318
HFC accelerating as copper churn moderates
22 67 80 101
Q3 17 Q3 18 Q3 16 +20% +26% HFC Other Net Q3 16 Q3 17 Q3 18 +7.7%
Simplifying postpaid offer in Colombia
New initiatives to accelerate growth in Mobile 2
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Simplified the offer to just 3 plans ($18, $25 and $33 per month) Focus on experience, innovation, commercial offer, and devices
HFC Homes Passed (000), Q3 15 – Q3 18
Homes Passed
Home revenue 9% CAGR in USD in last 3 years 3
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HFC Homes Connected (000), Q3 15 – Q3 18
Homes Connected
HFC RGUs (000), Q3 15 – Q3 18
RGUs
Home & Content service revenue ($ millions), Q3 15 – Q3 18
Home Revenue
6.848 Q3 2016 Q3 2015 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 6.177 8.107 9.387 +11% +18%
+16%
Q3 2018 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 1.851 2.038 2.277 2.642 +10% +12%
+16%
Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 3.073 3.607 4.204 5.046 +17% +17%
+20%
246 260 282 321 Q3 2018 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 +6% +8%
+14%
Millicom Cable revenue annualizes to $2.2 billion 3
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10 million Homes Passed 7 million RGUs Fixed B2B 4 million Homes Connected
Note: Based on annualized Millicom Q3 revenue for Home and B2B fixed, proforma for Cable Onda acquisition
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Cable economics for Millicom 3
With scope to expand homes passed by 50% and grow B2B
Note: ROI calculation based on lifetime customer value assuming capex of $100 per home passed and $150 per home connected, penetration rate of homes passed of 33%, ARPU
Brand Network Talent Distribution + + +
Unlevered Pre-tax ROI > 30% Low cost to build Pricing Power
Convergence 5G +
Cable Onda 4
2018 Expected closing
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FCF growth is crucial to support our organic plans and pursue inorganic opportunities
Free cash flow continues to grow 4
$m, 9M 16 – 9M 18
Equity FCF up 19% YTD
171 204 243 9M 16 9M 17 9M 18 +19% $m, 2014-2017
Equity FCF up ~$400 million in last 3 years
235 269 356 2014 2017 2015 2016 +399
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Tim Pennington
Financial Highlights
KPIs driving sustain revenue growth EBITDA growth driven by core Latam businesses All P&L profit metrics improving… …and cashflow continues to strengthen And net debt reduces again On track with our 2018 goals
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$m, Q3 17 – Q3 18
Service Revenuea
Sustained growth
Key financial metrics – Q3 2018 1
1,342 1,399 Q3 17 Q3 18 4.2% $m and %, Q3 17 – Q3 18
EBITDAa and Margins
550 564 Q3 17 Q3 18 2.6% $m and margin, Q3 17 – Q3 18
Q3 OCF and Marginsb
a) Q3 17 numbers are adjusted to Q3 18 FX rates and exclude Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana. Growth is presented on a like-for-like basis for the international wholesale business in Colombia b) Excluding Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana, spectrum & license costs
37.0% 37.7%
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309 309 Q3 18 Q3 17
20.7% 20.6%
Latam biggest contributor to EBITDA growth
EBITDA – Q3 2018 2
$ million, Q3 17 – Q3 18
EBITDA evolution by region
22 5 13 553 LatAm Ebitda Q3 17 Africa Ebitda Q3 17 (constant currency) 550 FX and other Ebitda Q3 18 Corporate 2 564
+2.6%
37.0% 37.7%
as % of revenue
Q3 17 numbers are adjusted to Q3 18 FX rates and exclude Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana
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$m and margin, Q3 17 – Q3 18 $m and margin, Q3 17 – Q3 18
Solid growth returning to Latam
Latam 2
$m, Q3 17 – Q3 18
Latam service revenue
Q3 17 1,212 1,268 Q3 18 +4.7% Q3 18 504 Q3 17 525 +4.2% Q3 17 20.4% 20.4% Q3 18 275 278 +1.4%
Notes: Growth rates are organic and exclude the impact of changes in FX rates and accounting changes. Q3 2017 figures have been adjusted to reflect these organic growth rates. Capex/revenue excludes spectrum & license costs
Latam EBITDA Latam OCF
37.2% 38.4%
Capex / Revenue
16.8% 18.0%
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Service revenue, year-on-year (%), Q1 16 – Q3 18
El Salvador Bolivia
Service revenue in our main Latam markets 2
Guatemala Colombia* Honduras Paraguay
Q216
Q116
Q316
Q318 Q416
Q117
Q417 Q217
0.3%
Q317
5.4% 2.1%
Q118
Q218
Q116
2.7% 6.4%
Q216 Q416
5.7%
Q316
Q117
Q217
3.5%
Q317
3.4%
Q417 Q118
6.4%
Q218 Q318
Q116
Q216 Q316 Q416 Q118 Q117 Q317
0.0%
Q217
Q417
0.0% 0.3%
Q218
2.6%
Q318
2.0%
Q116
5.5%
Q217
4.7%
Q216 Q416 Q317 Q316
0.5%
Q117
15.7% 2.6% 6.1%
Q218
9.1%
Q417
6.5%
Q118
13.7%
Q318
Q216
2.3%
Q117 Q116 Q416
0.6%
Q417
0.3%
Q316
Q118 Q217 Q218 Q317
0.6% 6.0% 4.4%
Q318
6.2% 7.1%
Q417
2.1%
Q116 Q416
3.3%
Q216 Q316
2.9%
Q117
4.5%
Q217
6.5%
Q317
8.9% 7.8%
Q118
6.2%
Q218
5.4%
Q318
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* Q1 and Q2 2018 numbers re-presented to reflect impact of IFRS 15
EBITDA ($m), margin and year-on-year growth, Q3 17 – Q3 18
El Salvador Bolivia
Strong performance in Bolivia and a return to EBITDA growth in Colombia
EBITDA progression by country 2
Guatemala Colombia Honduras Paraguay
168 171 Q3 17 Q3 18 +4.7% 38 30 Q3 17 Q3 18 (23.0%) 108 127 Q3 17 Q3 18 13.7% 55 61 Q3 18 Q3 17 +11.2% 63 64 11 Q3 17 7 Q3 18 75 71 (3.1%) 3.7% Adj 79 84 Q3 17 Q3 18 +7.7% EBITDA
36.4% 30.2% 50.5% 50.2% 52.0% 44.3% Adj 38.9% 38.1% 25.0% 30.4% 47.3% 49.4%
Margins
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49.2% 44.4% Adj
Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q3 2015 – Q3 2018
Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin
Steady upward margin trend continues
Cost review and margin progression 2
OPEX organic growth* YoY (in $), Q3 17 – Q3 18
Group total OPEX base
36.9% 32.9% Q3 15 33.6% Q3 16 35.6% Q3 17 Q3 18 +400 bps Q3 17 General and Adminstration Q3 18 Sales and Marketing 541 +3.1%
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* Excludes FX and IFRS 15
+9.6% (3.0%)
P&L Summary Key Observations
P&L review – Q3 2018 3
US$ million Q3 18 Q3 17 % Var Revenue 1,498 1,494 0.3% EBITDA 564 553 2.2% Depreciation & amortization (303) (323) (6.0%) Other operating 32 20 58.4 Operating profit 293 250 17.3% Net financial expense (114) (133) (14.8%) Others non operating (21) 1 NM Associates (32) (15) 116.0% Profit before tax 126 103 22.3% Taxes (20) (66) (70.2%) Minority interests (38) (25) 53.8% Discontinued operations 8 (99.1%) Net income 68 21 233.1% EPS ($ per share) 0.68 0.20 232.2%
amortization of some intangibles in Colombia, Guatemala and Honduras
charges partly offset by higher finance leases
tax
up strongly
A B C A B C D D
37
Significant profit improvement below EBITDA
We generated $243 million of equity FCF year-to-date
Cash flow – 9M 2018 4
$ million
9M 2018 cash flow
1,676 897 391 243 688 91 203 304 148 Finance charges eFCF Dividend to minorities Taxes paid Cash capex (ex-spectrum and licenses) Ebitda including discontinued
Working capital and others Cash flow from
FCF
36.6% 19.6% 8.6%
as % of revenue
38
30 September 2018
Debt profile
In 9M net debt reduced by $284m and leverage at 1.82x
Capital structure 5
$ million, 31 December 2017 – 30 September 2018
Net debt evolution in 2018
243 274 133 4,071 Net debt YE 2017 Equity FCF 54 3,786 Spectrum 30 FX and
Lease capitalization M&A and towers Dividend 16 Net debt Q3 2018 1.86x 1.70x 2.02x 1.82x Net debt/LTM EBITDA Proportionate Net debt/ Proportionate LTM EBITDA
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Africa 5% Fin. Leases 7% HQ 20% Banks 40% Latam 74% Fixed or Swapped 69% Source Geography Bonds 53% Variable 31% Interest rates Hard currency 56% Local 44% FX exposure 5Y or more 54% Less than 5y 46% Maturity
Comfortable capital structure and liquidity with no major maturities until 2022
Debt profile
$ million
Debt maturity profile
46 42 79 2024 2018 31 26 2019 25 2021 38 PY $300m 2022 2023 744 GT $800m 34 2020 27 2025 26s $500m 2026 28s $500m >2027 20 299 403 355 713 515 994 839 7 25s $500m International Bonds Finance leases Local Bonds (Colombia & Bolivia) Bank and DFI Proforma
Average life of 5.6 years*
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151
5
* Proforma for the $500 million 2026 Notes issued in Q4 2018
Confirming our Latam segment full year targets
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On track
Recap
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Our strategy is working Sustained growth Solid financials and KPIs YTD 2018 outlook on track Strengthened balance sheet and growing cash flow Making progress on U.S. listing – Nasdaq chosen
Q&A
Gross debt by country
Central America: Total debt $1,834m 32% guaranteed South America: Total debt $1,901m 4% guaranteed Africa: Total debt $268m 57% guaranteed Total MIC Debt: $5,033m 16% Guaranteed Corporate: Total debt $1,030m 0% guaranteed Chad: $62m (96% guaranteed) Tanzania: $112m (0% guaranteed) Zantel: $93m (100% guaranteed) Paraguay: $507m (12% guaranteed) Bolivia: $316m (4% guaranteed) El Salvador: $298m (96% guaranteed) Honduras: $401m (40% guaranteed) Guatemala: $988m (0% guaranteed) Costa Rica: $148m (100% guaranteed) Colombia $1,079m (0% guaranteed)
Including finance leases
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Net debt by country
Central America: $1,417m Leverage 1.24x South America: $1,601m Leverage 1.52x Africa: $109m Leverage 0.65x Total Net Debt: $3,786m Leverage 1.70x Chad: $44m Tanzania: $(12)m Zantel: $78m Paraguay: $436m Leverage 1.3x Bolivia: $259m Leverage 1.1x El Salvador: $242m Leverage 1.7x Honduras: $361m Leverage 1.4x Guatemala: $698m Leverage 1.0x Costa Rica: $120m Leverage 2.1x Colombia: $907m Leverage 1.8x
Including finance leases; Leverage is Net debt / LTM EBITDA
Corporate $659m
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Currency exposure of debt
*El Salvador has USD as functional currency (treated as local.)
September 2018 Debt including finance leases Cash Net debt US$ Local Total Total USD Local Total Latin America* 1,748 1,988 3,736 717 1,445 1,574 3,019 47% 53% 100% 48% 52% 100% Africa 94 173 268 159 90 18 109 35% 65% 100% 83% 17% 100% Corporate 982 48 1,030 371 619 40 659 95% 5% 100% 94% 6% 100% Millicom 2,824 2,210 5,033 1,247 2,154 1,632 3,786 56% 44% 100% 57% 43% 100%
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