Investor Presentation November/December, 2010 Forward-Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation November/December, 2010 Forward-Looking - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation November/December, 2010 Forward-Looking Statements and EBITDA This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking statements including statements relating to U.S. housing recovery, the potential for
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Forward-Looking Statements and EBITDA
This presentation and comments associated with it contain forward-looking statements including statements relating to U.S. housing recovery, the potential for constrained lumber supply, pent up U.S. housing demand, projected SPF shipments to China, projected B.C. Interior lumber production, Alberta and U.S. South log supply, U.S. South demographics, pulp & paper outlook and significant potential strength of lumber markets. These statements are subject to the cautionary statement which introduces the Company’s 2009 Management’s Discussion & Analysis contained in its 2009 Annual Report. In this presentation reference is made to EBITDA (operating earnings plus amortization and asset impairments). We believe that EBITDA is a useful performance indicator and measure of cash available prior to debt service, capital expenditures and income taxes. EBITDA is not a generally accepted earnings measure under Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and does not have a standardized meaning prescribed by Canadian GAAP. Investors are cautioned that EBITDA should not be considered as an alternative to earnings
- r cash flow, as determined in accordance with Canadian GAAP. As there is no
standardized method of calculating EBITDA, the Company’s method of calculating EBITDA may differ from the methods used by other entities and, accordingly, the Company’s use of that term may not be directly comparable to similarly titled measures used by other entities.
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West Fraser
Geographic Diversification
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Canadian Integration – Product Diversification
. Lumber
- 28 Mills
Pulp & Paper
- 5 Mills
Panels
- 6 Mills
SPF 3.5 billion feet SYP 2.0 billion feet Total 5.5 billion feet
Plywood: 830 million square feet (3/8”) MDF: 300 million square feet (3/4”) LVL: 3.2 million cubic feet
1.2 million tonnes
Largest lumber producer in the World
Largest plywood producer in Canada Third largest pulp producer in Canada
West Fraser
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West Fraser is an integrated forest products company primarily focused on solid wood products
Lumber 63% Panels 14% Pulp & Paper 23%
Trend Sales Mix
West Fraser
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43% 16%
- 2%
17%
- 30%
- 30%
- 40%
- 30%
- 20%
- 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
West Fraser S&P/TSX Dow Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C
Source TD Bank
Total Shareholder Return (US$)
(June 2006 – November 23, 2010)
West Fraser - Financial
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West Fraser - Financial
Financial Performance - $ million
Ytd Q3 2010 2009 2008 Total EBITDA 363 30 128 521 Net Earnings 128 (341) * (137) (350) Cash from Operations 410 106 179 695 Capital Expenditures 44 19 47 110 Dividends 5 10 24 39 Debt reduction 585
* Includes $260 million of asset impairment, restructuring, and a tax valuation allowance
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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2007 Q3 2010 $ millions Reduced debt by $585 million during the worst lumber market since the Great Depression
West Fraser - Financial
Strong Balance Sheet
25% Debt to Capital 6% Debt to Capital
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West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
Inevitable U.S. housing recovery Potential for longer-term constrained supply West Fraser geographic diversification and low- cost, highly-efficient operations
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2009 Production
4.2 3.1 3.0 2.3 1.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 W e s t F r a s e r W e y e r h a e u s e r C a n f
- r
S t
- r
a E n s
- S
i e r r a P a c i f i c Billion Board Feet
West Fraser – Lumber Overview World’s Largest Lumber Producer
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Lumber Sales Mix - 2009
Canada 20% USA 69% Asia 11%
West Fraser – Lumber Overview Significant Exposure to U.S. Housing
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0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Production Underlying Demand
Million Units
Source: FEA
Pent Up Housing Demand
Significant pent up demand bodes well for long- term recovery. West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
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SPF Shipments from Canada to China
37 238 524 1,220 1,350 2,000
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ytd Sept. 2010 2010 Est. MMfbm
West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
China is poised to become a major consumer of softwood lumber
Source: China Wood Imports & Exports Data
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West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
Potential For Constrained Supply
- Russian log export tariffs
- Eastern Canadian harvest reductions
- Boreal Accord
- Mountain Pine Beetle
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Mountain Pine Beetle
West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity Approximately 1 Billion m3 Dead or Dying
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B.C. Interior Lumber Production
Post Beetle production back to 1980’s and 90’s levels.
B.C. Interior Lumber Production
5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
MMfbm
500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300
Starts (thousands)
Production U.S. Housing Starts (R axis) Forecast Forecast based on W ood Markets (BC Fibre model)
West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
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Lumber Capacity Location
BC 47% Alberta 17% USA 36%
Geographic diversification in lumber West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
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- Competitive cost structure
- Expanding log supply
- Less impact from mountain pine beetle than
B.C.
- West Fraser currently operates 30% of Alberta’s
lumber capacity
Alberta – Key Advantages
West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
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- Proximity to market
- Demographics support long-term housing
growth
- Expanding log supply
- Currency and trade (softwood lumber duties)
hedge
U.S. South – Key Advantages
West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
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62% 61% 62% 58% 82% 63% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% % of Capacity
WFT Canada B.C. Interior Canada
Lumber Operating Rate 2009
U.S. South WFT U.S. U.S.
Low-cost structure allows for higher operating rates in down market
West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
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73% 75% 67% 64% 98% 73% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% % of Capacity
WFT Canada B.C. Interior Canada
Lumber Operating Rate Q2 2010
U.S. South WFT U.S. U.S.
Low-cost structure allows for higher operating rates in down market
West Fraser – Lumber Opportunity
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Canadian Integration – Product Diversification
. Lumber
- 28 Mills
Pulp & Paper
- 5 Mills
Panels
- 6 Mills
SPF 3.5 billion feet SYP 2.0 billion feet Total 5.5 billion feet
Plywood: 830 million square feet (3/8”) MDF: 300 million square feet (3/4”) LVL: 3.2 million cubic feet
1.2 million tonnes
Largest lumber producer in the World
Largest plywood producer in Canada Third largest pulp producer in Canada
West Fraser
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Pulp & Paper Sales Mix - 2009
Europe 8% North Am erica 30% Asia 60%
West Fraser – Pulp & Paper
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Competitive Business
Pulp & Paper Ebitda/tonne
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25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 $/tonne
West Fraser No Eurocan Canfor
West Fraser’s pulp business is competitive with Canfor’s pulp business
West Fraser – Pulp & Paper
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Favourable Outlook
- China demand to support pricing
- West Fraser operations have shown marked
improvement
- $88 million reimbursement for capital
improvements
- Bioenergy integration
- BCTMP niche business
West Fraser – Pulp & Paper
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Newsprint
Alberta Newsprint is the lowest cost newsprint producer in North America and a positive contributor to the profitability of our pulp and paper business
North American Newsprint Cost Structure
Exchange at $.88 Cdn$/tonne ANC
Source: PPPC Cost Survey 2009
West Fraser – Pulp & Paper
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Canadian Integration – Product Diversification
. Lumber
- 28 Mills
Pulp & Paper
- 5 Mills
Panels
- 6 Mills
SPF 3.5 billion feet SYP 2.0 billion feet Total 5.5 billion feet
Plywood: 830 million square feet (3/8”) MDF: 300 million square feet (3/4”) LVL: 3.2 million cubic feet
1.2 million tonnes
Largest lumber producer in the World
Largest plywood producer in Canada Third largest pulp producer in Canada
West Fraser
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Panel Segment A Consistent Contributor
53 59 29 48 51
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 Ytd Sept. 2010
$ million
West Fraser - Panels
Plywood sold in Canada while MDF and LVL are predominantly used in North American new home construction
EBITDA
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Wood Products – The Environmental Choice
- Sustainable
- Renewable
- Recyclable
- Energy Efficient
- Carbon Storage
West Fraser – Environmental Greater public acceptance of products and industry
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- Significant potential upside for lumber and other
wood building products
- Sector continues to be plagued by bad news
which depresses share values, creating buying
- pportunities
- Solid pulp & paper business
- Low-cost, highly efficient operations
Why Invest in West Fraser?
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- Proven ability to generate strong cash flow even
in worst markets
- Consistent, straightforward business plan
- Loyal, long-term employee and management
base
- Conservative financial management coupled with
proven ability to grow strategically
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“WFT” – Toronto Stock Exchange www.westfraser.com
These materials have been prepared by Management of the
- Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of
the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the Company, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale
- f the Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer,