March - April 2019
Investor presentation Fourth quarter 2018 March - April 2019 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor presentation Fourth quarter 2018 March - April 2019 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor presentation Fourth quarter 2018 March - April 2019 2 Investor presentation fourth quarter 2018 Contents Financial Calendar Domestic Mail 46 Parcels 47 Highlights & guidance More on corporate.bpost.be/investors
2
Investor presentation fourth quarter 2018
Financial Calendar
Highlights & guidance 4Q18 Highlights – 4 FY18 Highlights – 5 New Business Unit structure – 6 2018 restated in new BU structure – 7 Outlook 2019 – 8 bpost at a glance Investment rationale – 10 Dividend policy – 11 Overview – 12 Transformation – 13 Vision & strategy – 14 & 15 Management – 16 Sustainability – 17 Mail & Retail – 18-26 Parcels & Logistics Eur & Asia – 27-34 Parcels & Logistics N. America – 35-41 Current trading 4Q18 EBITDA bridge – 43 Key financials – 44 Revenues – 45 Domestic Mail – 46 Parcels – 47 Radial – 48 Additional sources of revenues – 49 Costs – 50 Cash flow – 51 Balance sheet – 52 Current trading FY18 EBITDA bridge – 54 Key financials – 55 Revenues – 56 Domestic Mail – 57 Parcels – 58 Additional sources of revenues – 59 Costs – 60 Cash flow – 61 Additional Info 2018 restated in new BU structure – 63-66 IFRS16 – 67-68 Relationship with State – 69 USO & SGEI – 70 European mail market – 71 Key contacts – 72
Contents
1
as defined among others under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Disclaimer
This presentation is based on information published by bpost in its Fourth Quarter 2018 Interim Financial Report and in its 2018 Annual Report, both made available on March, 19th 2019 at 5.45pm CET and in its Capital Markets Day presentation of June, 21st 2018 available on corporate.bpost.be/investors. This information forms regulated information as defined in the Royal Decree of 14 November 2007. The information in this document may include forward-looking statements1, which are based on current expectations and projections of management about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future whether or not outside the control of the Company. Such factors may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, no assurance is given that such forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct. They speak only as at the date of the Presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward- looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This material is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a solicitation of any offer to purchase any securities.
More on corporate.bpost.be/investors
02.05.2019
(17:45 CET) Quarterly results 1Q19
08.05.2019
Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders
15.05.2019
Dividend payment date
07.08.2019
(17:45 CET) Quarterly results 2Q19
Highlights 4Q/FY18 Guidance 2019
4
Highlights of 4Q18
4Q18
Underlying Domestic Mail volume evolution
- Impacted by continued e-substitution, rationalization and competitive advertising
market
Continued strong parcels growth despite strikes impact; Radial in line with expectations
- Domestic: double-digit organic volume growth driven by strong e-commerce growth
but impacted by strikes; price/mix effect of -3.3% fully mix related
- Logistic Solutions: mainly driven by Radial (€ +111.6m) in line with expectations.
- 6.2%
+15.8%
- € 1.4m
(organic opex decrease)
Total operating income up 18.5%
- Driven by acquisitions, strong organic domestic and international parcels growth and
nearly stable domestic mail revenues
€ 1,131.6m
Back-end loaded EBITDA generation as planned
€ 206.4m + € 117.0m
Favorable organic cost evolution
- Total opex increase of € +121.4m driven by opex from acquisitions (€ +133.7m incl.
Radial).
€ 1.31 gross
Proposed total dividend per share equal to last year as guided
€ 1.06 already paid in December 2018 and € 0.25 to be proposed at the Annual General Meeting in May 2019
Good peak management, both in Belgium as in the US
5
Highlights FY18 – Results in line with expectations
FY18
Domestic Mail Parcels Dividend
€ million FY18:
- 5.8% (underlying volume)
FY18: +23.3% (domestic volumes) Total gross dividend of € 1.31 per share proposed
- Interim dividend already paid: € 1.06
- Final dividend of € 0.25
Topic Results Last outlook for 2018 Low end of the € 560-600m range Up to -7% Double digit At least the same level as 2017 (i.e. € 1.31)
Group EBITDA
FY18: € 571.1m (-4.5%, - € 26.9m) Stable EBITDA contribution vs. 2017 (i.e. € 16.9m)
Radial EBITDA
FY18: € 25.7m (+ € 8.8m)
6
New business unit structure - Reminder
New business unit structure
7
New business unit structure – 2018 key financials
New business unit structure
in € million
1
Details per segment per quarter in appendix
2
Excluding exceptional items, Corporate segment is expected to be EBIT neutral. 2
Note: an Excel download of restated financials is available under the Q4 caption on the website: https://corporate.bpost.be/investors/results-reports-and-presentations/quarterly-results/2018
1
2018 restated PaLo PaLo M&R Eurasia
- N. Am.
Corp Eliminations Group External operating income 1,951.7 757.0 1,104.8 36.8 3,850.2 Internal operating income 159.6 35.3 9.6 358.2 (562.7)
- Total operating income
2,111.3 792.3 1,114.4 395.0 (562.7) 3,850.2 Operating expenses 1,727.6 735.5 1,068.5 309.8 (562.3) 3,279.1 EBITDA 383.6 56.8 45.9 85.2 (0.4) 571.1 Margin (%) 18.2% 7.2% 4.1% 21.6% 14.8% Depreciation & Amortization 50.5 18.1 35.0 43.3 146.8 EBIT 333.2 38.7 10.9 41.9 (0.4) 424.3 Margin (%) 15.8% 4.9% 1.0% 10.6% 11.0% Average # FTEs and interims 22,214 3,087 9,093 1,715 36,109
8
Outlook FY19
Parcels & Logistics North America Group Dividend Mail & Retail
- Low single digit % decline in Mail & Retail total operating income
- Underlying Domestic Mail volume decline up to -7%
- Average price increase of +4.4% in Domestic Mail
- % EBIT margin between 11-13%
Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia
- High single digit % growth in Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia total
- perating income of which mid-teens for Parcels Belgium-Netherlands
(BeNe)
- % EBIT margin between 6%-8%
- Low single digit % decline in Parcels & Logistics North America total
- perating income mainly explained by the FY impact of the 2018 client
churn and repricing at Radial. On track for 2022 guidance as presented at the CMD.
- Break-even at EBIT level
- Stable total operating income incl. proceeds from building sales
- Normalized EBIT above € 300m1
- Gross capex around € 150m
- At least 85% of 2019 BGAAP net profit of bpost SA/NV
Outlook for 2019
1 Corporate EBIT is expected to be neutral
bpost at a glance
10
bpost offers a strong investment rationale
bpost at a glance
We develop sustainable activities in the high growth e-commerce logistics & parcels business in our Be-Ne home market and key geographies in Europe and North America We continue to transform the mail and proximity business in the home market to sustain solid cashflows Multiple levers for transformation of the legacy business: natural attrition, alternative delivery model, stable and predictable regulation, network optimization,… Experienced management team with embedded financial discipline and a strong business transformation track record High growth in e-commerce logistics & parcels: aspired sizeable share of revenues by 2022 A solid balance sheet with single 'A' credit rating
bpost aims at being a responsible company, delivering a sustainable dividend to its shareholders
What? How?
11
We create value for shareholders
bpost at a glance
Dividend Policy Annual dividend of at least 85% of BGAAP net profit (unconsolidated) Interim in December of financial year based on 10-month results Final in May of year following financial year Constrained by the net results of a given year + distributable reserves Distributable reserves built gradually as from 2013, primarily to safeguard the dividend level in case of exceptional costs (€ 173m end 2018)
0,93 1,04 1,05 1,06 1,06 1,06 0,20 0,22 0,25 0,25 2017 2013 2014 0.24 2016 2015 0.25* 2018 1.13 1.31 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.31 Final gross DPS (€) Interim gross DPS (€)
91% Pay-out ratio 85% 90% 85% 90% 100%
* Proposed final gross dividend per share to be approved by General Meeting of May 8, 2019
12
A diversified mail operator with a footprint in e-commerce logistics
bpost at a glance
2018 figures (normalized)
1 51% Mail & Retail, 20% Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia, 29% Parcels & Logistics North America and 1% Corporate revenue
€ 3,850.2m1
revenues
€ 571.1m
14.8% EBITDA
€ 424.3m
11.0% EBIT
€ 290.4m
net profit
36,109
average # FTE & interims
Mail & Retail
€ 1,952m 51% Transactional mail € 772m 20%
Parcels & Logistics North America
€ 1,105m 29%
Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia
€ 757m 20% Advertising mail € 244m 6% Press € 350m 9% E-commerce logistics € 1,018m 26% International € 87m 2% Cross-border € 290m 8% Parcels BeNe € 339m 9%
Revenues % of total
E-commerce logistics € 128m 3% Proximity and convenience retail network € 480m 12% Value added services € 105m 3%
13
Continuous improvement is in our DNA. We have a proven transformation track record
bpost at a glance
2004
- Building of new
sorting centres
- Transformation of
the network
2003
Start of continuous
- ptimization of
delivery rounds
2009
Implemen- tation of new distribution structure with reduced number of buildings
2011-2020
Strategic ‘Vision 2020’ program in mail service
- perations to further increase
efficiency
2003
New management & start of the transformation period
2006
CVC and Danish Post enter into the capital for 50%-1 share (split 50/50), government holds 50%+1 share
2008
Danish Post sells its stake to CVC
2013
IPO in June at € 14.5/share CVC sells 30% in IPO and remaining 20% in December
Transformation journey Key events
Normalized1 EBIT
1 Normalized figures are not audited
2007
Automated round sorting and mail sequencing
2017
Launch New Brussels X sorting facility
14
Vision for the long-term
bpost at a glance
Beyond mail, be an efficient global e-commerce logistics player anchored in Belgium” Efficient provider
- f mail universal,
retail & public services EBIT Progressive profit generation Sizeable share of revenues generated in parcels & logistics
15
bpost will deliver on 3 strategic aspirations…
bpost at a glance
Mail services to citizens and State remain core and will continue to generate profit with a more adapted distribution model
1
Drive profitable growth in parcels in BeNe and further develop e- commerce logistics in Europe
2
CASH GENERATION & DIVIDENDS
3
Optimize Radial to deliver
- n the investment thesis in
the promising North American e-commerce market
16
… supported by an experienced management team with responsibilities down to the bottom-line
bpost at a glance
Mark Michiels CHRO Nico Cools CIO Dirk Tirez CLO Pierre Winand CEO Parcels & Logistics North America Luc Cloet CEO Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia Henri de Romrée CEO Mail & Retail Baudouin de Hepcée CFO ad interim Koen Van Gerven Group CEO
17
Sustainability is at the heart of our activities
bpost at a glance
Selected awards and recognition First Sustainable Loan in Belgium 3-pillar CSR strategy linked to United Nations People
we care about our employees and engage them
Proximity
we are close to the society
Planet
we strive to reduce our impact on the environment
Shared Value Creation
- Employee health & safety
- Employee training and
talent development
- Ethics & diversity
- Social dialogue
- Green fleet
- Green buildings
- Waste management
- To our community
- To our suppliers
- To our customers
through our services
- Continuity of our
business
- Employee
satisfaction and engagement
- Customer
satisfaction
€ 300m revolving credit facility with pricing mechanism linked to the sustainability score of bpost
- Financing needs aligned with bpost’s sustainability
and CSR ambitions
- bpost being recognized by its stakeholders as a
highly responsible company
- IPC EMMS Scorecard 2018 (sector index):
#1 (Sixth Year)
- EcoVadis (clients index): Gold rating
- Ethibel Indexes: reconfirmed as a constituent of the
Ethibel Sustainability Index (ESI) Excellence Europe since 19/03/2018
- Sustainalytics: score 79% (2/133)
- MSCI: Score A
- ISS: Quality Score: 2 = Low Risk
IPC Environmental Ranking
1st
18
Mail & Retail at a glance
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail 772 1.952 244 350 480 105
Transactional mail Advertising mail Press1 Proximity and convenience retail network2 Value added services3 Total Sub-segments ~7.7m letters handled daily Servicing 5.6m letter boxes 5 industrial sorting centers Key facts & figures Revenue 2018, €m ~2.3k points of presence in Belgium ~19.0k operational FTEs
1 Includes Ubiway press distribution revenue (AMP) 2 Includes Banking & Financial, Retail & Other MRS and Ubiway convenience distribution 3 Value Added Services (the part attributed to the previous MRS operating segment)
19
Key value drivers for the Mail & Retail business
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
To From Key value drivers >50% over 2018-2022 70% in 2018 Share of mail volume decline compensated through price increase Successful extension / renewal Three contracts until end 2020; compensation contractually set Renegotiation/retendering of future 6th Management contract and press concessions Flexible, differentiated offering (prior vs. non-prior) Fixed D+1 based model (everywhere, everyday) Evolution of operating model (mail collect and distribution) Up to ~-9% by 2022
- 5.8% in 2018
Speed of mail volume decline
20
Domestic mail volume decline expected to progressively accelerate from -5.8% in 2018 up to ~9% in 2022
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
- 5.8%
- 5.0%
- 4.2%
- 4.4%
- 5.0%
- 5.8%
Key drivers
- E-substitution
at large corporates and Belgian State
- Intensifying
competition in advertising media
- Shift to digital
for newspapers & magazines
- Renewal of
press concessions
- Service level
elasticity
- 5.0%
- 3.7%
- 5.3%
- 5.9%
- 8.1%
- 5.7%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1.5%
- 9.1%
- 7.2%
- 3.0%
- 3.0%
- 4.9%
- 3.8%
- 3.0%
- 2.8%
- 2.8%
- 2.8%
- 3.7%
2019-22
Underlying change in domestic mail volume Transactional mail Advertising mail Press
Progressively up to -9% with the alternative
- perating
model
21
Regulatory aspects
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
- Collection, sorting, transport and distribution of postal items up to 2kg and single piece postal
packages up to 10kg
- Collect and deliver 5x per week
- Cover full territory of Belgium for collection and delivery of items belonging to universal service
- Apply uniform tariffs and an identical service across the territory
Designated provider of the Universal Service Obligation until end 20231 3 key contracts with the Belgian State until 20201 Postal law of 10 February 2018 provides stable & predictable mail pricing framework
- 6th Management Contract: for the provision of certain SGEIs, i.e. maintenance of retail network,
cash at counter, cash payment of pensions at home
- 2 press concessions: (1) for distribution of periodicals and (2) for distribution of newspapers
- Single piece mail & USO parcels falling within “small user basket” are subject to a price cap
- Price cap2 = inflation - (volume evolution + cost reduction factor x efficiency gains sharing factor)
- Volume and operational discounts allowed for other USO products (bulk)
- Price increases done in practice on a yearly basis: +4.4% on average in 2019 on all domestic mail
items
1 Refer to slide 70 for more details 2 Exact formula: Price cap = health index April n-1/ health index April n-2 * (1 – [expected volume decline/(expected volume decline +1)] – 2.8%*33% ) – 1
22
New Postal Law provides stable and predictable regulatory framework to increase prices in context of accelerating mail volume decline
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
Illustrative example assuming 2% inflation and -6% average volume decline: [V/(V+1)] with V as the expected negative volume trend on the Small User Basket Fixed by the law at 0.9% (i.e., 1/3 of 2.8% efficiency gains target) Ratio of the health index as measured in April of the n-1 and n-2 years Calculation logic Correlation to price cap Larger mail volume decline results in larger allowed price increase Constant and fixed by law Higher inflation results in larger allowed price increase Description Compensation for mail volume decline Mechanism to share 1/3 of the efficiency gains target with consumers Compensation for inflation Drivers of the price cap formula Inflation Volume decline Efficiency gains 102% Price cap1: 7.6% 106.4% 0.9%
1
Detailed formula: Price cap = (1 + inflation) * ( 1 - [V/(V+1)] – 0.9% ) – 1 , giving for the above example the following calculation (1+2%) * (1 – [-6%/(-6%+1)] – 0.9%) - 1 = 7.6%
x
Effective as of February 10, 2018
23
Price increase and mix effects expected to compensate >50% of mail volume decline over 2018-22
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail 57 60 67 68 71 42 27 20 21 13 2018-221 16 15 2013 14 17
Domestic mail volume Domestic mail price/mix
Volume and price/mix impact on revenue €m
72% 45% 18% 30% 31% >50% Building on the New Postal Law for price regulated products Price increase on small user basket rejected by regulator
x% Share of volume effect compensated by price/mix
Key drivers
- Accelerating
domestic mail volume decline up to -9% by 2022
- New price cap
mechanism of Postal Law defining max price increase for small user basket, and guiding price increase for non- price capped products
- Price increase
partly offset by shift to less expensive mail products
1 2018 was at 70%
24
Management has developed an extended set of cost control options
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
Examples of cost control options FTE Unit cost Distribution Collect & Transport Industrial Mail Centers Operating model
- Further optimize FTE mix
- Introduce new generation of Georoute and time potential management
- Simplify process for selected transactions
- Enhance customer experience and productivity through digital (e.g., consumer
preferences)
- Align number of red boxes to mail volume decline
- Stop collect on Saturday and increase flexibility of pick-up, delivery and
dispatch timing constraints
- Optimize mail sorting centers footprint
- Pursue continuous improvement
- Evolve towards a differentiated offering and alternative operating model
- Take measures to address absenteeism
25
bpost evolves towards a differentiated offering to accommodate changing customer needs
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
Within D+3 Differentiated offering as of Jan 1st 2019 Operating model evolution D+1 Mail Newspapers
- Same day delivery
- Adjusted “day certain”
distribution frequency: in a given street, mail will be distributed on selective days
- f the week
- D+1 delivery will remain
available as a separate product (“Prior”) Parcels
- D+1 offering
No change Available to consumers who need D+1 delivery Service level agreement (SLA) “within 3 days”
1 Based on a bpost study with 1,000 households & 500 businesses (<200FTE) interviewed in February 2015
Acceptance for D+3-41 Optimizing drop density
2004 2018 2022 2022 ~70 ~55 <50 ~70 Current model: everywhere, everyday Alternative: D+3 combined with D+1
Share of houses receiving mail on any given day, %
Individuals ~92% Professionals 94%1
26
Operational FTE evolution1
Average FTEs and interims, ‘000
Labor cost will benefit from decrease of mail related FTEs and
- ptimized employee mix
bpost at a glance – Mail & Retail
Operational FTE mix evolution1 Age pyramid1
Operational headcount per age, 31/12/18
1
bpost SA/NV scope, excluding retail network
2013 17 14 18 15-20% 15 16 Allocated to mail Allocated to parcels 19.8 19.0 18.5 18.6 18.6 19.0 80-85% 51% 47% 43% 39% 35% 25% 28% 32% 37% 41% 19% 19% 18% 18% 17% 16 Other 7% 7% Contractual 5% 17 2014 6% 15 7% 18 Auxiliary postman Civil servant 0-39 50+ 40-49 7,702 5,451 6,965 Pay-scale contractuals Non pay-scale contractuals Civil servants Natural attrition Average natural attrition is expected to range from 1,200 to 1,300 FTEs/year
- ver 2019-22
Contractual ~95 Auxiliary postman ~74 Civil servant 100
Average cost per contract type1
Indexed
27
Parcels & Logistics Europe and Asia at a glance
bpost at a glance – PaLo Eurasia
Sub-segments Key facts & figures Revenue Pro forma 2018, €m Parcels BeNe (last-mile)1 E-commerce logistics2 Cross-border (incl. int’l mail & parcels) Total Parcel hubs with dedicated parcel rounds in BE where enough density +417k parcels per peak day in BeNe 3 sorting location (New Brussels X, AX, CX) + Dyna hubs
- Last-mile activities in Belgium
and the Netherlands
- Total of ~62m parcels in 2018
- Fulfilment & transport
activities in Europe (incl. Radial EU)
- Majority of cross-border
volume is inbound mail and parcels for Europe and Asia
339 757 290 128
1
Includes a.o. domestic parcels at the exception of inbound flow, DynaLogic, DynaSure, Citydepot, Eurosprinters, De Buren and Parcify
2
Includes a.o. Radial Europe, Dynafix, NL & PL fulfilment, Leen Menken, Bubble post and Active Ants
28
Key value drivers for Parcels & Logistics Europe and Asia
bpost at a glance – PaLo Eurasia
Parcels BeNe (last-mile) Sub-segments To From Key value drivers Cross-border Natural business evolution Developing international parcel flows driven by e-commerce activity
- Develop international cross-border
parcels, also across continents
- Ability to maintain international mail
volume E-commerce logistics E-commerce logistics in PL, NL & BE and “DynaFix” Higher scale & skills, ability to leverage Radial capabilities
- Ability to organically capture market
growth of ~10% p.a. (vs. insourcing, pan-European players) Focus on Belgium (sales force, contracts, DHL partnership) BeNe-wide approach
- BeNe-wide offering addressing
customer requirements Volume growth rate
- f 20-30% with price/
mix effect up to -6%
- ver 2016-2018
Double-digit volume growth rate Parcel hubs where enough density Parcel hubs where enough density
- Optimized last-mile operations based
- n parcels characteristics (e.g., size) and
in line with delivery requirements
- Ability to capture profitable growth in
a competitive environment
29
Four strategic initiatives for parcels BeNe
bpost at a glance – PaLo Eurasia
Convenience & Cost leadership Differentiate pricing policy Integrated BeNe offering Attract key foreign e-commerce players 4 strategic initiatives
- Convenience
expressed through Net Promoter Score KPI
- Dedicated parcel
hubs
- Sorting capacity
- Fulfilment
infrastructure
- Transport
- ptimization
- Digital excellence
- Tactical pricing
initiatives
- Partnerships with e-commerce
players
- E2E service offering (“gateway
to Europe”)
- Dedicated, specialized sales force
- Integrated commercial offers
- Partnership with DHL Parcels
30
We have an established position in the Belgian B2C/C2C parcels market
bpost at a glance – PaLo Eurasia
Unique selling proposition
Offer best last mile and broadest delivery options, supported by acquisitions and partnerships:
- Home delivery 7/7 & evening delivery, including high-end deliveries (2-man)
- ~2,300 pick-up & drop-off points (incl. ~830 open access Kariboo! points)
- 181 parcel lockers in Belgium
- Click & Collect
- Non-exclusive partnerships with DPDHL for B2C parcel delivery into Belgium
(from Germany/France & Benelux)
CAGR 2017-20, % ~15% ~5% B2C C2C 0-4% B2B B2C C2C B2B 2017 parcel market1 100% = € 1,285m
1
Source: Effigy
2017 bpost domestic parcels revenue € 224m
31
New partnership with DHL Parcels NL will allow to cover the full BeNe region and to capture important cross-border flows
bpost at a glance – PaLo Eurasia
Competitive offering
- Very competitive & dynamic region
with many large players such as PostNL, DHL, DPD, FedEx Large NL-based e-commerce players
- Looking for a BeNe wide offering
with regards to last mile
- Benchmarking prices on a BeNe
level Purchasing behavior
- NL is the most important
import country to BE (~20% of import flows)
- BE consumers mainly buy
from NL players such as Bol.com and Coolblue Launched in June 2018
32
The parcels operating model will be continuously optimized
bpost at a glance – PaLo Eurasia
Increase sorting capacity Optimize distribution cost using drop density of mail rounds Build dedicated parcel infrastructure to match customer requirements
- Increase sorting capacity to
cope with increasing volume (optimizing sorting footprint mail & parcels)
- Use technology (e.g. address
recognition)
- Maximize letterbox-sized and
non-letterbox-sized parcels in mail rounds (~40% of the parcels)
- Cost advantage due to higher
drop density leading to lower unit costs
- Nationwide network of Parcel
hubs to accommodate distribution of ~60% of parcels (that are not in mail rounds)
- Parcel hubs where enough
density, with ramp up in line with parcels growth
- Benefit for customer
proximity and special services e.g. Late-in services, “large scale” evening distribution or same day distribution
33
Additional parcels sorting capacity will be gradually built
bpost at a glance – PaLo Eurasia
2018 2022 Base Capacity, K Parcels / day Description Parcel sorting capability footprint1
- Centralized sorting
capacity mainly in NBX. Additional capacity in AX & CX.
- Additional parcel sorting
machines in existing centers (LX, GX, AX, CX) to increase capacity
- Build on DHL capacities
The selected scenario to gradually add capacity to all sorting centers offers several advantages such as
- Use freed space from
letters
- Minimize
transportation costs
Ax Cx NBx
Gx Lx
+
Ax Cx NBx
1
Parcel sorting capabilities of Parcify, Eurosprinters, Citydepot & Kariboo not shown on the map
~400 ~600 + DHL
34
Supported by acquisitions, bpost has initial assets in Europe along the entire value chain of e-commerce logistics
bpost at a glance – PaLo Eurasia Realtime technology 3 2 1 Fulfilment 4 Customer care Order Delivery
- Phone,
email, social media & chat support
- Advanced
analytics
- Order
management
- Payment
services, tax services and fraud prevention
- Order
reception in warehouses in the proximity of clients
- Preparation for
shipment
- Hybrid transport
network for high- end and urgent delivery
- Last mile delivery
Poland Germany UK The Netherlands Belgium
Cold chain facility Fulfilment sites Personalized logistics
~€ 128m 2018 revenue 9 fulfilment centers / facilities1 >800 employees 5 countries
1
Including Leen Menken and Active Ants, excluding bpost sorting centers
E-commerce logistics operations in Europe E-commerce logistics offering
35
Parcels & Logistics North America at a glance
bpost at a glance – PaLo North America
Total E-commerce logistics1 Interna- tional Mail2 Growth engine for bpost, to be a leading e-commerce logistics player in US with ~$ 100m-$ 120m EBITDA potential Grow with cross- border commerce One of the last international mail providers to deliver profit through infrastructure
- ptimization
US e-commerce logistics provider fulfilling 72m parcels p.a. with proven client base, IT infrastructure and capabilities along the E2E value chain Capabilities to support mid- sized e-tailers to expand cross-border and last mile distribution in Canada and Australia International mail solutions and catalogue fulfilment through US companies Sub-segments Objective Revenue 2018, €m
1.105 87 1,0181
1 Radial North America, Landmark Global, Apple Express and FDM 2 MSI, Imex, Mail Inc.
36
bpost has a global footprint through Landmark Global and a nation-wide coverage in the US through Radial
bpost at a glance – PaLo North America
Strategic locations in
13
countries
37
Acquisition of US-based
- n 16 November 2017
bpost at a glance – PaLo North America
Key data
- Sales 2018: € 888m
Normalized EBITDA 2018: € 25.7m (2.9% margin) 8,600 FTEs
- 24 fulfillment centers globally (of which 2 in Europe
included in the business unit PaLo Eurasia)
- 100% acquisition of the shares
- Enterprise Value: $ 820m
- Financed through a € 650m 8-year bond issue
carrying a coupon of 1.25% (issued 4 July 2018)
- Sales CAGR 2019-2022: +7 to 9% p.a.
- EBITDA 2022e: $ 100-120m (high single digit margin)
- Capex: maintenance capex of $ 25-30m + growth
capex for capacity expansion & automation
Financial indicators for Radial North America Acquisition rationale
Our growth
- Integrated e-commerce logistics provides access
to a larger and more attractive profit pool
- Radial as growth engine and key profit
contributor Presence in the US and Europe
- Strengthen US position building on presence
with Landmark Global
- Scale bpost’s e-commerce logistics capabilities in
the Benelux and Europe Strong growth of e-commerce
- e-commerce is growing rapidly with US being
an attractive and advanced space (+16% p.a. growth of online retail over 2004-2022e)
- Transatlantic e-commerce is growing at >25%
p.a. with 20% of European parcels coming from the US Knowledge and experience
- Knowledge and experience of the e-commerce
logistics chain increase exponentially with the acquisition of an experienced player
38
Radial North America offers multiple services across the entire e-commerce logistics value chain
bpost at a glance – PaLo North America
10% Technology Operations
Radial North America assets Processing global payments, maximizing successful authorization and reconciling tax districts and global duties 99.1% approval rate vs. 97.1% industry average 2.1% manual review rate vs. 25% industry average
Payment, Tax, and Fraud Prevention Omnichannel Technology 2
22,000 Stores with fulfilment 26,000 Dropship suppliers Optimizing efficiency of order management, ship-from- store and in-store pick up Ability to handle complex orders < 10 weeks to deployment vs. competition 1-2 years Scalability of technology
Warehousing & Fulfilment
22 Fulfilment sites in North America Adapting warehouse management and parcels preparation to e-commerce with pragmatic automation 80%+ orders shipped day 0 ~100% US coverage Experience of scaling up to ~20k peak capacity 3,400+ Seats across 5 sites
Customer Care
Having a single view of customer’s history and profile combined with leading self-service tech #1 Email & Chat and #2 Phone (StellaService ranks) Advanced data analytics Description and key strengths
Freight Management
100% asset light Managing a large network of carriers for a seamless customer experience Rates 5-15% cheaper than in-sourcing for mid- sized players Clients reached in 2.4 days on avg
1 3 5 4
Revenues share %
- Fraud Zero
software
72% 18%
39
Radial North America market dynamics and competitive landscape
bpost at a glance – PaLo North America
Independent e-commerce logistics providers Online revenue e-tailers, US Addressable e-commerce logistics sector
$ 20m $ 2,000m
$ 540bn1 expected US online retail revenue in 2018 Radial’s target audience ($ 20m – 2bn revenues)
- Mid-market
segment ($ 20-200m
- nline revenue)
- Enterprise
segment ($ 200-600m)
- Some selected
key accounts ($ 600m-$ 2bn) $ 27-37bn addressable e-commerce logistics Radial’s target audience e-commerce revenue $ 150-155bn ~$ 540bn total US
- nline Retail
e-commerce
1
Source: Forrester Data, Online Retail Forecast, 2018
40
Positive commercial development at Radial and evolution over FY18 in line with expectations
bpost at a glance – PaLo North America
Commercially heading in the right direction
- We observe that the new customer-focused
approach launched early 2018 starts to bear fruits with progressive NPS improvement during the year. Customers gave a very positive peak feedback.
- After the poor renewal performance of 2017 and
1Q18, positive contract renewal cycle for existing clients, as from 2Q18.
- New contracts signed have a TCV of $ 217m, which
is above target and above the previous 2 years ($ 150m in 2016 and 2017).
FY18 results in line with expectations
- Good peak management, with productivity gains
partly offset by higher costs related to maintaining a sufficient labor pool within a tight US labor market. Results impacted, as expected, by:
- Churn (mostly in Fulfilment & Transport), with
revenue growth from new and existing customers (also impacted by some repricing) not compensating revenue loss from clients terminating with Radial.
- Webstore business phase-out, impacting FY18
EBITDA by $ -21.2m.
41
Radial action plan will result in $ 80-100m potential EBITDA improvement by 2022
bpost at a glance – PaLo North America 50 Grow & Retain 2018 10-20 Productivity Supporting functions and IT 20-30 2022e 100-120 +80-100 1 2 3
- Fuel top-line growth via new leads, increased conversion rate and
- ptimized pricing
- Increase satisfaction and retain clients by installing true client
philosophy (e.g. pursue renewals, improve client qualification, …)
- Continue to implement productivity improvement programs, e.g.
‒ Lean warehousing metrics ‒ Improved allocation of clients to distribution centers based on client specifics
- Implement identified improvement levers in support functions
(e.g. IT, medical costs, …)
Current Trading 4Q18
43
4Q18 EBITDA driven by parcels performance, acquisitions and nearly stable domestic mail
4Q18
€ million
151,4 143,5 169,4 206,4 21,7 24,4 37,0
Positive
- ne-off
4Q17
- 1.7
Reported EBITDA 4Q17
- 7.9
Additional sources of revenues EBITDA 4Q17 excl.
- ne-off
Domestic Mail Parcels
3.4
Corporate
- 24.2
Costs
0.9
EBITDA Radial EBITDA 4Q18 excl.
- ne-off
Reported EBITDA 4Q18
1.4
Positive
- ne-off
4Q18
Total operating income
€ +25.9m / +18.0%
Opex from acquisitions (excl. Radial) Reversal on earn-
- ut DynaGroup
- € 18.2m earn-out reversals
- € 7.9m gain on building
sales (OBX)
- € 10.9m IAS19
Variance 4Q18 versus 6 weeks consolidated in 2017 Organic opex
44
4Q17 4Q18 4Q17 4Q18 % Δ Total operating income 955.1 1,131.6 955.1 1,131.6 18.5% Operating expenses 803.7 925.2 803.7 925.2 15.1% EBITDA 151.4 206.4 151.4 206.4 36.3% Margin (%) 15.9% 18.2% 15.9% 18.2% EBIT 115.5 143.8 124.2 156.9 26.3% Margin (%) 12.1% 12.7% 13.0% 13.9% Profit before tax 106.9 140.5 115.7 153.6 32.8% Income tax expense 39.8 35.9 42.2 38.2 Net profit 67.1 104.6 73.5 115.4 57.1% FCF (576.6) 221.8 (591.6) 186.0 bpost S.A./N.V. net profit (BGAAP) 68.2 78.1 68.2 78.1 14.5% Net Debt/ (Net cash), at 31 December 292.4 344.8 292.4 344.8 Normalized
1
Reported
Summary of key financials 4Q18
4Q18
€ million
1
Normalized figures are not audited
Tax impact of PPA
- n amortization of
€ 2.3m € 13.1m linked to amortization on intangible assets (purchase price allocation “PPA” Radial, Ubiway, Dynagroup, de Buren & Imex) Normalized FCF excludes the cash Radial receives on behalf of its customers for performing billing services.
45
Total operating income
4Q18
€ million
1
Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
2
Including scope changes: Radial, Leen Menken, BubblePost, Active Ants
3
Including scope changes: Imex, M.A.I.L. Inc.
4
Including one-off 4Q18 operating income (earn-out reversals in Retail & Other and gain on sale OBX in Corporate)
4Q17 ∆ 4Q18 % ∆ Transactional mail 214.8 2.7 217.5 1.3% Advertising mail 67.3
- 1.7
65.6
- 2.5%
Press 77.7
- 2.7
75.0
- 3.5%
Domestic parcels1 64.8 7.9 72.6 12.1% International parcels 63.0 8.5 71.4 13.5% Logistic solutions2 240.2 117.0 357.2 48.7% International mail3 43.0 22.7 65.7 52.7% Value added services 25.4 3.2 28.7 12.7% Banking and financial 43.5
- 2.2
41.3
- 5.0%
Distribution 25.8 4.4 30.3 17.1% Retail & Other4 76.9 5.4 82.3 7.0% Corporate4 12.8 11.3 24.2 88.2% 955.1 176.5 1,131.6 18.5% Domestic mail Parcels Additional sources
- f revenues
TOTAL
46
Domestic mail underlying volume trend at -6.2% in line with guidance
4Q18
Total operating income, € million
1
Mail volumes related to elections and working day differences are neutralized in the underlying volume trend: 4Q18 had 2 working days more on franking machines vs. the same quarter of 2017.
14,6 Working day impact 1.8 Volume 4Q17 3.1 Elections
- 21.2
Price/mix 4Q18 359.8 358.1
- 1.7
- Transactional Mail: continued e-substitution and
rationalization.
- Advertising Mail: excluding elections, unfavorable media mix
evolution in Direct Mail and higher competition in unaddressed. Advertising volumes are impacted by shift towards transactional & press categories.
- Press: newspapers trend (excl. distribution days effects) slightly
better than 4Q17; periodicals impacted by digitization and rationalization.
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 FY18 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 FY18 Transactional mail
- 7.0% -3.5%
- 5.3%
- 5.3%
- 5.3%
- 6.7%
- 3.2%
- 6.1%
- 6.6%
- 5.7%
Advertising mail
- 7.6% -7.8%
- 3.4%
- 3.5%
- 5.7%
- 7.6%
- 7.8%
- 6.9%
- 6.3%
- 7.2%
Press
- 3.3% -2.5%
- 7.1%
- 2.9%
- 3.8%
- 3.3%
- 2.5%
- 7.1%
- 2.9%
- 3.8%
Domestic Mail
- 6.8% -4.3% -5.1% -4.6% -5.2% -6.6% -4.1% -6.4% -6.2% -5.8%
Underlying (excl. elections)
1
Reported
- Elections: local elections on October 14th, 2018 impacting
revenues positively for € 3.1m (+1.0% on overall domestic mail volume).
47
Organic parcels growth supplements acquisitions revenue contribution
4Q18
Total operating income, € million
7,9 8,5 Logistic Solutions 4Q17 Domestic Parcels1 Radial International Parcels 5.4 4Q18 479.5 501.2 4Q17 rebased 111.6 367.9 +21.7
- Reported organic volume growth of +15.8% driven by
strong e-commerce growth partly offset by strikes (estimated volume impact of 5.3%) and slower C2C sales.
- Price/mix of -3.3%: price increase fully offset by product
& client mix effect.
- Growth driven by US and Europe.
- Mainly consolidation of Leen Menken and Active Ants2.
- Increase driven by consolidation of full 3 months in 4Q18 vs.
6 weeks (as of 16 November 2017) last year. Radial revenues reported under Logistic Solutions.
1
Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
2
Active Ants is included in FY18 for 10 months as of 1 April 2018, with 4 months in 4Q18
48
Radial: successful EoY peak despite labor cost pressure
4Q18
- 4Q18 revenues below 4Q17 as anticipated:
– Revenue growth from new and existing customers not compensating revenue loss from clients terminating with Radial – Webstore phase-out and expected client churn in Fulfilment & Transport
- 4Q18 EBITDA below 4Q17 as anticipated:
– Growth from existing clients, better productivity, lower medical claims and favorable evolution of fraud charge backs – Offset by phase-out of webstore business, impact of customer churn and increase in incentives to adequately staff for year-end peak
Reported € million 4Q18 Total operating income 313.5 Operating expenses 295.6 Transport 102.4 Payroll and interim 119.4 Other SG&A 59.4 Other costs 14.5 EBITDA 17.9 Margin (%) 5.7%
49
Additional sources of revenues reflect acquisitions
4Q18 10,3 22,7 International mail 4Q17
- 1.2
Scope One-off 4Q17 rebased 3.2 VAS
- 2.2
Retail & Other 4Q18
- 3.7
223.7 4.4 Distribution Banking & Financial 214.6 248.1 +24.4
- Consolidation of Imex & M.A.I.L., Inc. as of January 2018,
higher registered volumes (from Asia) and client wins (UK).
- Mainly Alvadis due to a reclassification from Retail &
Other to Distribution.
- Lower commission revenues on bpost bank savings
accounts due to low interest rate environment; lower revenue from financial transactions managed on behalf of the State.
- Growth at Ubiway retail offset by lower sales bpost retail
products.
- Mainly document management services and management
- f cross-border fines.
Total operating income, € million
- de Buren and Dyna earn-out reversals variance booked in
Retail & Other.
50
Favorable organic costs evolution
4Q18
Operating expenses excl. depreciation and amortization, € million
11,8
- 10.9
Payroll & Interim
- 9.7
4Q17 rebased 133.7 4Q17 803.7 Other costs 926.5 925.2
- 4.4
SG&A IAS 19 Transport 0.9 Consolidation effect (opex acquisitions)1 4Q18
- 1.4
1
Opex of Radial, Bubble Post, Leen Menken, Imex, M.A.I.L., Inc., Active Ants (see appendix for more detail)
- Group insurance 4Q18 (payroll & interim).
- Increase driven by international activities (mail & parcels)
and domestic parcels growth (subcontractors), additional costs due to strikes.
- Additional headcount (mainly parcels growth &
absenteeism), salary indexation and merit increases compensated by better productivity, favorable FTE mix, tax shift, unpaid hours due to strikes and favorable evolution of some payroll provisions.
- Lower third party and advisory costs.
- Higher materials cost partly compensated by favorable
evolution provisions.
51
Positive evolution of FCF supported by working capital evolution and lower outflows related to M&A activities
4Q18
1
Operating free cash flow = cash flow from operating activities + cash flow from investing activities
CF from operating activities:
- CF from operating activities before changes in working capital: € 129.4m
- Collected cash due to Radial’s clients: € 35.8m
- Decrease in working capital: € 58.7m
CF from investing activities:
- Proceeds from sale of buildings (€ 46.5m) almost fully compensating capex
(€ 48.5m) CF from financing activities, mainly:
- Issuance of commercial paper (€ 145.0m) more than offset by interim dividend
pay-out (€ 212.0m)
Reported - € million 4Q17 4Q18 Delta Cash flow from operating activities +46.7 +223.9 +177.2 Cash flow from investing activities
- 623.2
- 2.1
+621.1 Operating free cash flow
- 576.6
+221.8 +798.4 Financing activities +466.6
- 79.1
- 545.7
Net cash movement
- 110.0
+142.7 +252.6 Capex
- 54.4
- 48.5
+5.9
52
bpost is to retain a robust balance sheet
4Q18
1 bpost has no pension deficit: as is customary in Belgium all pensions are paid as part of national social security
€ million Rating and capital allocation
- S&P assigned credit rating
- f ‘A’ to bpost on June 20th,
2018 based on a stand- alone credit profile of BBB
- bpost successfully issued a
€ 650m 8-year bond on July 4th, 2018 with a coupon
- f 1.25%
- bpost seeks to maintain
credit metrics compatible with a solid intrinsic investment grade
- Dividends remain the
primary use of capital allocation as the plan assumes no further acquisitions 724,3 723,2 329,2 251,2 466,0 680,1 1,643.1 39.3 36.9 70.7 39.1 Dec 31, 2017 restated1 1,583.0 Dec 31, 2018 Cash, cash equivalents & investment securities Other assets PPE & intangible assets Investments in associates Trade & other receivables Inventories 3,241.0 3,345.1 777,8 702,3 326,9 308,4 755,3 Interest-bearing loans & borrowings 1,270.3 66.5 Dec 31, 2017 restated1 1,314.5 1,024.8 39.3 Dec 31, 2018 Provisions Trade & other payables and derivative instruments Employee benefits Total equity 3,241.0 3,345.1 Assets Equity and liabilities
Current Trading FY18
54
FY18 EBITDA impacted by growth activities and core business cost inflation
FY18
€ million
598,0 552,6 523,2 571,1 70,4 8,8 47,9
- 7.5
Reported EBITDA FY18 Reported EBITDA FY17
79.8
Domestic Mail
- 45.4
EBITDA FY17 excl.
- ne-offs
Positive
- ne-offs
FY17 Positive
- ne-offs
FY18
- 13.8
Parcels Additional sources of revenues Corporate EBITDA Radial EBITDA FY18 excl.
- ne-off
- 99.5
- 67.5
Costs
Total operating income
€ -29.4m / -5.3%
- € 14.9m provision reversal
- € -4.1m specific projects and ATM attacks
- € 18.2m earn-out reversals
- € 7.9m gain on building sales (OBX)
- € 10.9m IAS19
- € 15.3m IAS19 non-cash gain related to
termination of transport benefit
- € 7.9m reversal on earn-out DynaGroup
- € 22.2m other provision reversals
related to taxes & claims Opex from acquisitions (excl. Radial) Variance FY18 versus 6 weeks consolidated in 2017 Organic opex
55
FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 % Δ Total operating income 3,023.8 3,850.2 3,023.8 3,850.2 27.3% Operating expenses 2,425.9 3,279.1 2,425.9 3,279.1 35.2% EBITDA 598.0 571.1 598.0 571.1
- 4.5%
Margin (%) 19.8% 14.8% 19.8% 14.8% EBIT 492.9 393.4 501.6 424.3
- 15.4%
Margin (%) 16.3% 10.2% 16.6% 11.0% Profit before tax 488.7 381.0 497.5 411.9
- 17.2%
Income tax expense 165.8 117.4 168.2 121.4 Net profit 322.9 263.6 329.3 290.4
- 11.8%
FCF (485.8) 241.2 (500.8) 231.5 bpost S.A./N.V. net profit (BGAAP) 291.0 262.3 291.0 262.3
- 9.8%
Net Debt/ (Net cash), at 31 December 292.4 344.8 292.4 344.8 Reported Normalized
1
Summary of key financials FY18
FY18
€ million
1
Normalized figures are not audited
€ 30.9m linked to amortization on intangible assets (purchase price allocation “PPA” Radial, Ubiway, Dynagroup, de Buren & Imex) Tax impact of PPA
- n amortization of
€ 4.1m Normalized FCF excludes the cash Radial receives on behalf of its customers for performing billing services.
56
Total operating income
FY18
€ million
FY17 ∆ FY18 % ∆ Transactional mail 807.9 1.4 809.3 0.2% Advertising mail 252.9
- 8.6
244.2
- 3.4%
Press 292.6
- 6.6
286.0
- 2.2%
Domestic parcels1 224.2 38.1 262.3 17.0% International parcels 222.6 20.3 242.9 9.1% Logistic solutions2 349.2 707.0 1,056.2
- International mail3
160.4 80.4 240.9 50.1% Value added services 101.5 9.1 110.7 9.0% Banking and financial 182.6
- 15.5
167.1
- 8.5%
Distribution 98.1 2.9 101.0 3.0% Retail & Other4 288.9 2.6 291.4 0.9% Corporate4 42.9
- 4.6
38.3
- 10.7%
3,023.8 826.4 3,850.2 27.3% Domestic mail Parcels Additional sources
- f revenues
TOTAL
1
Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
2
Including scope changes: Radial, Leen Menken, BubblePost, Active Ants
3
Including scope changes: Imex, M.A.I.L. Inc.
4
Including one-off operating income (earn-out reversals in Retail & Other and provision reversal + gain on sale OBX in Corporate)
57
Domestic mail underlying volume trend at -5.8% better than guidance of up to -7%
FY18
Total operating income (revenues), € million
1
1Q18 had 1 working day less on franking machines, 2Q18 1 working day less on stamps, 3Q18 1 working day more on franking machines and 2 more on stamps and 4Q18 2 working days more on franking machines vs. the same quarters of 2017.
49,6 1,339.5 FY17 5.2 2.0 Working day impact Elections
- 70.7
Volume Price/mix FY18 1,353.4
- 13.8
- Transactional Mail: continued e-substitution and
rationalization but positive impact of specific mailings (e.g. GDPR, MIFID II) in 2Q18.
- Advertising Mail: excluding elections, unfavorable media mix
evolution in Direct Mail and higher competition in Unaddressed. FY18 advertising volumes are impacted by shift towards transactional & press categories.
- Press: newspapers trend (excl. distribution day effects) better
than in FY17; periodicals impacted by digitization and rationalization.
FY17 4Q18 FY18 FY17 4Q18 FY18 Transactional mail
- 8.3%
- 5.3%
- 5.3%
- 8.1%
- 6.6%
- 5.7%
Advertising mail 1.5%
- 3.5%
- 5.7%
1.5%
- 6.3%
- 7.2%
Press
- 3.7%
- 2.9%
- 3.8%
- 3.7%
- 2.9%
- 3.8%
Domestic Mail
- 5.9% -4.6% -5.2% -5.8% -6.2% -5.8%
Reported Underlying 1
- Price increase on non-regulated items as of 1 January
(12 months) and SUB as of 1 March (10 months) partly offset by shift towards cheaper products.
- Elections: local elections on October 14th, impacting FY18
revenues positively by € 5.2m (+0.4% on overall domestic mail volume).
58
Robust organic domestic and international parcels performance; Logistic Solutions driven by positive contribution from M&A
FY18
Total operating income (revenues), € million
38,1 International parcels 20.3 21.5 Radial 685.5 Logistic Solutions 1,481.6 FY17 rebased FY17 796.1 1,561.4 FY18 +79.8 Domestic Parcels1
- Reported volume growth of +23.3% driven by
e-commerce growth and the online C2C product offering.
- Price/mix of -5.1%: price increase fully offset by product
& client mix effect.
- Growth driven by the US (despite negative FX impact) and
Europe, especially UK.
1
Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
2
Active Ants is included in FY18 for 10 months as of 1 April 2018, with 4 months in 4Q18
- Mainly consolidation of Leen Menken and Active Ants2.
- Increase driven by consolidation of full 12 months in FY18
- vs. 6 weeks (as of 16 November 2017) last year. Radial
revenues reported under Logistic Solutions.
59
Additional sources of revenues reflect acquisitions
FY18
Total operating income (revenues), € million
80,4 840.6 Scope FY18 Banking & Financial FY17
- 1.2
911.0
- 6.6
Retail & Other 9.1 International mail FY17 rebased One-off VAS
- 15.5
2.9 10.3 Distribution 831.5 +70.4
- Decline in Alvadis due to a legislative change on prepaid
mobile cards in June 2017 excluding revenue reclassification
- Mainly driven by management of cross-border fines
- Growth at Ubiway retail offset by lower sales bpost retail
products.
- Consolidation of Imex & M.A.I.L., Inc. as of January 2018,
higher volumes from Asia (mainly registered) and inbound mail.
- de Buren and Dyna earn-out reversals variance booked in
Retail & Other.
- Lower revenues from bpost bank savings accounts due to
low interest rate environment; lower revenue from financial transactions managed on behalf of the State.
60
Organic costs impacted by growth and cost inflation in core business
FY18
Operating expenses excl. depreciation and amortization, € million
39,8 27.8 SG&A
- 8.8
Other costs 3,211.8 8.6 3,279.1 775.1 FY17 rebased Transport 10.8 FY17 One-off Consolidation effect (opex acquisitions)1 Payroll & Interim FY18 2,425.9 +67.4
1
Opex of Radial, Bubble Post, Leen Menken, Imex, M.A.I.L., Inc., Active Ants (see appendix for more detail)
- 2Q17 and 4Q18 IAS19 non-cash gains (net € +4.4m).
- 3Q17 and 2Q18 provision reversals (net € +2.3m).
- 2Q18 € +4.1m related to support on specific projects and
ATM attacks.
- Increase driven by international activities (mail & parcels)
and domestic parcels growth (subcontractors).
- Additional headcount (mainly parcels growth &
absenteeism), salary indexation and merit increases only partly compensated by better productivity, favourable FTE mix, tax shift and unpaid hours due to strikes.
- Higher rent & rental (NBX, additional fleet), insurance,
energy costs (higher fuel price, larger fleet) and maintenance and repairs.
- Mainly lower materials costs and other operating charges.
61
Positive variance in net cash movement thanks to improved FCF
FY18
1
Operating free cash flow = cash flow from operating activities + cash flow from investing activities
CF from operating activities:
- CF from operating activities before changes in working capital: € 348.2m
- Collected cash due to Radial’s clients: € 9.7m
- Decrease in working capital: € 4.1m
CF from investing activities:
- Capex (€ 114.9m) and cash outflows related to acquisitions (€ 61.4m)
- Partly compensated by proceeds from sale of buildings: € 55.6m
CF from financing activities, mainly:
- Bond issuance (€ 650.0m) and net increase commercial papers & loans more than
- ffset by the reimbursement of the bridge loan (€ -691.6m), dividend pay-out
(€ 262.0m) and costs related to borrowing Reported - € million FY17 FY18 Delta Cash flow from operating activities +266.1 +362.0 +95.8 Cash flow from investing activities
- 751.9
- 120.8
+631.1 Operating free cash flow
- 485.8
+241.2 +727.0 Financing activities +416.8
- 29.5
- 446.4
Net cash movement
- 68.9
+211.7 +280.6 Capex
- 121.3
- 114.9
+6.4
Additional info
63
New business unit structure – Mail & Retail
New business unit structure
in € million
expected 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 FY18 IFRS16 External operating income 497.2 492.0 456.5 506.0 1,951.7 Transactional 199.6 199.0 172.7 201.1 772.4 Advertising 63.4 60.1 55.1 65.6 244.2 Press 88.7 87.0 82.9 91.4 350.0 Proximity and convenience retail network 120.0 119.4 120.1 120.4 479.9 Value added services 25.5 26.6 25.7 27.4 105.2 Internal operating income 39.7 39.0 37.4 43.5 159.6 Total operating income 536.9 531.0 493.8 549.5 2,111.3 Operating expenses 422.6 425.2 431.7 448.2 1,727.6
- 45.5
EBITDA 114.4 105.8 62.2 101.3 383.6 +45.5 Margin (%) 21.3% 19.9% 12.6% 18.4% 18.2% Depreciation & Amortization 8.5 12.2 10.0 19.8 50.5 +43.4 EBIT 105.8 93.6 52.2 81.5 333.2 +2.1 Margin (%) 19.7% 17.6% 10.6% 14.8% 15.8%
64
New business unit structure – Parcels & Logistics Europe and Asia
New business unit structure
in € million
expected 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 FY18 IFRS16 External operating income 177.5 184.7 176.1 218.7 757.0 Parcels BeNe 76.0 79.5 78.1 105.1 338.7 E-commerce logistics 32.7 34.3 31.8 29.2 128.0 Cross-border 68.8 70.9 66.3 84.3 290.4 Internal operating income 4.8 6.1 10.7 13.7 35.3 Total operating income 182.3 190.8 186.8 232.3 792.3 Operating expenses 168.9 180.8 180.8 204.9 735.5
- 9.9
EBITDA 13.4 9.9 6.0 27.4 56.8 +9.9 Margin (%) 7.4% 5.2% 3.2% 11.8% 7.2% Depreciation & Amortization 2.0 2.4 2.3 11.4 18.1 +9.7 EBIT 11.5 7.6 3.7 16.0 38.7 +0.2 Margin (%) 6.3% 4.0% 2.0% 6.9% 4.9%
65
New business unit structure – Parcels & Logistics North America
New business unit structure
in € million
expected 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 FY18 IFRS16 External operating income 240.0 249.1 238.5 377.1 1,104.8 E-commerce logistics 220.6 226.2 217.1 354.1 1,017.9 International mail 19.4 23.0 21.4 23.1 86.8 Internal operating income 1.2 1.7 3.1 3.6 9.6 Total operating income 241.2 250.8 241.7 380.8 1,114.4 Operating expenses 231.8 241.4 239.1 356.1 1,068.5
- 20.9
EBITDA 9.4 9.4 2.5 24.6 45.9 +20.9 Margin (%) 3.9% 3.7% 1.1% 6.5% 4.1% Depreciation & Amortization 9.1 8.2 8.3 9.3 35.0 +19.5 EBIT 0.3 1.1 (5.8) 15.3 10.9 +1.4 Margin (%) 0.1% 0.5%
- 2.4%
4.0% 1.0%
66
New business unit structure – Corporate
New business unit structure
in € million
expected 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 FY18 IFRS16 External operating income 1.8 2.5 2.7 29.8 36.8 Internal operating income 92.7 93.2 86.0 86.3 358.2 Total operating income 94.6 95.7 88.6 116.1 395.0 Operating expenses 88.5 78.1 80.6 62.6 309.8
- 27.4
EBITDA 6.0 17.6 8.1 53.5 85.2 +27.4 Depreciation & Amortization 11.2 11.5 11.7 8.9 43.3 +27.5 EBIT (5.2) 6.1 (3.6) 44.6 41.9
- 0.1
67
IFRS 16: Main impacts 2019
IFRS16
IFRS 16 impact on 2019 Operating expenses ~-104
Decrease as rent & rental expenses to be recognized as depreciation and interest costs
EBITDA ~+104
Increase due to lower rent & rental costs
D&A ~+100
Increase due to new depreciation of right-of-use assets
EBIT ~+4
Marginal increase due to opex and depreciation impacts
Net financial costs ~+8
Increase due to interest expense from unwinding
- f the discount of the lease liability
CF from operating activities ~+104
Leasing-related cash outflows transferred to CF from financing activities
CF from financing activities ~-104
Leasing-related cash outflows transferred from CF from operating activities
Assets & Liabilities ~418
in € million
68
IFRS 16: Main impacts 2019 per business unit
IFRS16
M&R Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia
Parcels & Logistics North America Corporate Group
Operating expenses ~-45
~-10 ~-21 ~-27
~-104 EBITDA ~+45
~+10 ~+21 ~+27
~+104 D&A ~+43
~+10 ~+20 ~+27
~+100 EBIT ~+2
~0 ~+1 ~0
~+4
in € million
69
bpost’s long term relationship with the Belgian State
Belgian State
State as a long term shareholder
Belgian State has 51% shares bpost’s board is composed of 5 board members1 and CEO appointed by the Belgian State and 6 independent directors Belgian State supports a regular dividend policy
bpost provides SGEIs2 on behalf of the State
2016-2020 2 press distribution contracts (newspapers & periodicals) Sixth management contract for
- ther SGEIs
Contractual amounts (excl. inflation3, volume impact & sharing
- f efficiency gains) of € 261.0m in
2016 (actual amount: € 264.9m), € 260.8m in 2017 (actual amount: € 270.0m), € 257.6m in 2018 (actual amount: € 271.4m), € 252.6m in 2019 and € 245.6m in 2020
State as important customer
State is a key commercial client to bpost Several other agreements in place with the State, such as European license plates (won by bpost through tender)
1
Since the Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders of May 9, 2018 there are only 3 State appointed board members (incl. CEO). The Belgian State requested bpost to postpone the appointment of three directors to be nominated by the Belgian State to a later date.
2
SGEI stands for Services of General Economic Interest cfr. slide 21
3
All amounts need to be adjusted for inflation on a cumulated yearly basis
Shareholder Belgian State Free float # shares 102,075,649 97,925,295 Press Retail Financial services
70
Management contracts and press concessions will be (re)negotiated in the timing of the plan
USO & SGEI
Scope
€271m2 state compensation in 2018 Universal Service Obligation (USO) State compensation possible in case
- f USO being financial burden
- Collect, sort, transport, &
distribute letter mail up to 2kg, parcels up to 10kg, and parcels up to 20kg from other EU member states
- 1 access point per
municipality
- Collect and deliver 5x/week
- Full territory of Belgium
- USO pricing constraints
- Provide adequate
information on USO products and services
- Quality control obligation
(95% of prior mail/parcels D+1, 97% D+2)
6th Management Contract
Services not typically associated with mail
- perators (SGEI), e.g.,
- Retail network
- Cash at Counter
- Election mail (distribution)
- Cash payment of pensions
at home
- Also part of SGEIs
- Newspaper early delivery
6x/week
- Periodical delivery
5x/week
- Quality control obligation
- f max 7 complaints per 10k
deliveries
- ~3,000 FTEs
Timing
- End of 2023, renewable by
consecutive terms of 5 years
- Complementary management
contract granted by the State1
- End of 2020
- Notified and validated by
European Commission under State Aid rules
- End of 2020
- Notified and validated by
European Commission under State Aid rules
Press concessions
1
Approval process is not yet finalized
2
Amount including inflation, volume variance and sharing of efficiency gains
71
A relatively resilient mail market vs. other European operators
European mail market
2008-18 CAGR for addressed mail volumes
as reported by major incumbent European postal operators, percent
AU UK DE CH NL DK IT EU FR BE SW
Addressed mail volume per capita 2018
- perator level*
1 11 3 8 7 6 10 5 2 4
SOURCE: Company information; Annual reports; Investor presentations; IPC; Eurostat
Note: definition of addressed mail may differ by operator 1 Includes addressed mail 2 Includes addressed mail 3 Includes addressed mail 4 Includes addressed mail 5 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 6 Includes addressed mail 7 Includes addressed mail (publishers services excl.) 8 Includes addressed mail excluding press 9 Includes all domestic mail
DK SW IT FR AU CH NL DE BE UK EU
3 8 4 5 6 7 11 10 1 2
10 Includes inland addressed mail 11 Includes letter mail and addressed direct mail / media post * Excludes domestic competitors
225 200 197 184 164 146 144 125 106 50 46
- 2,1%
- 4,7%
- 5,1%
- 5,1%
- 5,9%
- 9,2%
- 9,3%
- 13,1%
- 4,0%
- 3,4%
- 3,4%
(1) 2017 data (2) 2008-17 data (1) (1) (2) (2)
72
A relatively resilient mail market vs. other European operators
European mail market
2008-18 CAGR for addressed mail volumes
as reported by major incumbent European postal operators, percent
AU UK DE CH NL DK IT SW FR BE EU
Addressed mail volume per capita 2018
- perator level*
1 11 3 8 7 6 10 5 2 4
SOURCE: Company information; Annual reports; Investor presentations; IPC; Eurostat
Note: definition of addressed mail may differ by operator 1 Includes addressed mail 2 Includes addressed mail 3 Includes addressed mail 4 Includes addressed mail 5 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 6 Includes addressed mail 7 Includes addressed mail (publishers services excl.) 8 Includes addressed mail excluding press 9 Includes all domestic mail
DK SW IT FR AU CH NL DE BE UK EU
3 8 4 5 6 7 11 10 1 2
10 Includes inland addressed mail 11 Includes letter mail and addressed direct mail / media post * Excludes domestic competitors
225 200 197 184 171 164 148 125 106 54 53
- 2,1%
- 4,5%
- 4,7%
- 5,1%
- 5,9%
- 9,1%
- 9,4%
- 13,1%
- 4,0%
- 3,5%
- 3,2%
(1) 2017 data (2) 2008-17 data (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
73
Key contacts
Saskia Dheedene
Head of Investor Relations
- Email: saskia.dheedene@bpost.be
- Direct: +32 (0) 2 276 76 43
- Mobile: +32 (0) 477 92 23 43
- Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Stéphanie Voisin
Manager Investor Relations
- Email: stephanie.voisin@bpost.be
- Direct: +32 (0) 2 276 21 97
- Mobile: +32 (0) 478 48 58 71
- Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium