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Investor presentation May 21 st , 2019 1 Forward-looking statements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor presentation May 21 st , 2019 1 Forward-looking statements - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor presentation May 21 st , 2019 1 Forward-looking statements From time to time Home Capital Group Inc. (the Company) makes written and verbal forward-looking statements. These are included in the Annual Report, periodic reports to
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From time to time Home Capital Group Inc. (the Company) makes written and verbal forward-looking statements. These are included in the Annual Report, periodic reports to shareholders, regulatory filings, press releases, Company presentations and other Company communications. Forward-looking statements are made in connection with business objectives and targets, Company strategies, operations, anticipated financial results and the outlook for the Company, its industry, and the Canadian economy. These statements regarding expected future performance are “financial outlooks” within the meaning of National Instrument 51-102. Please see the risk factors, which are set forth in detail in the Risk Management section of the 2019 First Quarter Report, as well as the Company’s other publicly filed information, which is available on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR) at www.sedar.com, for the material factors that could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from these statements. These risk factors are material risk factors a reader should consider, and include credit risk, liquidity and funding risk, structural interest rate risk, operational risk, investment risk, strategic risk, reputational risk, compliance risk and capital adequacy risk along with additional risk factors that may affect future results. Forward-looking statements can be found in the Report to the Shareholders and the Outlook section in the 2019 First Quarter Report. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “will,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “should,” “estimate,” “plan,” “forecast,” “may,” and “could” or other similar expressions. By their very nature, these statements require the Company to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainty, general and specific, which may cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, global capital market activity, changes in government monetary and economic policies, changes in interest rates, inflation levels and general economic conditions, legislative and regulatory developments, competition and technological change. The preceding list is not exhaustive of possible factors. These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The Company presents forward-looking statements to assist shareholders in understanding the Company’s assumptions and expectations about the future that are relevant in management’s setting of performance goals, strategic priorities and outlook. The Company presents its outlook to assist shareholders in understanding management’s expectations on how the future will impact the financial performance of the Company. These forward-looking statements may not be appropriate for
- ther purposes. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or verbal, that may be made from time to time by it or
- n its behalf, except as required by securities laws.
Forward-looking statements
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Discussion topics
- Home Capital helps Canadians own homes
- New immigrants
- Business for self
- Growth in our mortgage business
- Credit quality
- Growth in Oaken channel
- IT Roadmap
- Substantial Issuer Bid 2018
- Capital position and NCIB activity
- Valuation and consensus
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Helping Canadians own homes
$300 million return of capital to shareholders
The Canadian mortgage market
$1,542 $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
Canadian mortgage debt ($Billions)
Source: Bank of Canada
- $1.5 trillion in mortgage debt outstanding as at
December 2018
- Big 5 banks hold 72.6% compared with 75.3% in
2017 (Source: Teranet)
- Home Trust lends to several target market
segments:
- New Canadians
- Self-employed
- Bruised credit
- Difference is in the process used to underwrite,
not the quality of the underwriting
- Home Trust borrowers are subject to stress test
and income verification requirements
Ontario 79% BC and Alberta 14% Other 7%
Geographic segmentation as at March 2019
Ontario BC and Alberta Other
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Helping Canadians own homes - Immigration
280,700 248,700 257,900 259,000 260,400 271,660 296,346 300,000 310,000 330,000 340,000
200,000 220,000 240,000 260,000 280,000 300,000 320,000 340,000 360,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (target) 2018 (planned) 2019 (planned) 2020 (planned)
Historical and target immigration figures
Source: Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship October 31 Report to Parliament
Population of new Canadians expected to grow 25% in five years
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Helping Canadians own homes – Self-employed
Our clients are entrepreneurs
15.81% 15.46% 15.36% 15.43% 15.31% 15.38% 15.32% 15.24% 15.33% 13.00% 13.50% 14.00% 14.50% 15.00% 15.50% 16.00% 16.50% 17.00% 2,550 2,600 2,650 2,700 2,750 2,800 2,850 2,900 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Percentage self-employed
Self-employment in Canada
Number of self-employed Percentage self-employed
Source: Statistics Canada
Number of self-employed workers in Canada has grown Important segment for Home Capital: Significant percentage of our
- riginations in 2018
This is a segment we know well, and know how to underwrite
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Growth in single-family mortgage originations
$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 2017 2018
(000s)
2018 versus 2017
$500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 Q1 2018 Q1 2019
(000s)
Q1 2019 versus Q1 2018 Strength in 2018 carrying over into 2019 Large banks have stated their expected growth in 2019 is “mid single-digits” Q1 2018 volumes increased by pull-through of pre-B20 demand
+19.5% +7.4%
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High credit quality of our residential loan portfolio
70.1% 59.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2016 2017 2018 2019
Weighted-Average LTV on new Uninsured Single-Family Residential Mortgages Originated in the period Weighted-Average LTV on all Uninsured Single-Family Residential Mortgages
High Beacon scores Stable and moderate loan- to-value (LTV) levels on both new originations and
- verall portfolio
Evidence of underwriting discipline and active risk management
706 703 640 650 660 670 680 690 700 710 720
- Wt. Avg. Original Beacon
- Wt. Avg. Current Beacon
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0.15% 0.02% (0.15%) (0.05%) 0.05% 0.15% 0.25% Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Provisions and loss experience
Provisions (annualized) as a % of gross loans Net write-offs (annualized) as % of gross loans
Credit experience – compares well to the large Canadian banks
Results in 2018 and 2019 are reported under IFRS9 and results in 2017 are reported under IAS39 which may limit comparability to prior periods
0.42% 0.40% 0.24% 0.23% 0.22% 0.20% 0.18% 0.12% 0.13% 0.25% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank HCG Provisions for credit losses as a % of gross loans Average of top 8 banks
Provisions for credit losses 2018
Our borrowers are: Hard-working High quality Creditworthy
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Growth in deposits at Oaken Financial – March 2019
$1.8 $2.2 $2.0 $2.2 $2.4 $2.6 $2.7 $2.9 $12.5 $12.8 $11.5 $11.7 $12.1 $12.0 $12.9 $13.5
$0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 $14.0 $16.0 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
(Billions)
Broker Oaken Total
Oaken deposits 21.8% of total Deposit growth of over 10% in Q1 2019
$2,000 $2,200 $2,400 $2,600 $2,800 $3,000 $3,200 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Owning our client base Less reliance on brokers Over 95% fixed-term GICs
+10.2%
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IT Roadmap launched in Q1 2019
MIGRATION TO THE CLOUD For scalable computing on demand PAPERLESS LENDING Paperless underwriting and funding well underway NEAR STRAIGHT THROUGH PROCESSING LAUNCHED For mortgages and GICs
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Substantial issuer bid 2018: $300 million at $16.50/share
Shares
- utstanding
2019E EPS (Consensus) Q3 2018 book value per share Prior to SIB 80,246,349 $1.63 $23.82 Post SIB 62,064,531 $2.11 $25.96 Change (18,181,818) 29.3% 9.0% $10.00 $11.00 $12.00 $13.00 $14.00 $15.00 $16.00 $17.00 $18.00 $19.00 $20.00
One year to May 13, 2019
Price MA (50D)
5 3 4 1 2
Event Closing price 1 Q2 2018 earnings $13.77 2 Q3 2018 earnings and SIB announcement $17.46 3 SIB execution price $16.50 4 Q4 2018 earnings $16.99 5 Q1 2018 earnings $18.01
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Capital position at March 31, 20191 and NCIB
Post SIB capital levels still above industry average and regulatory minimums
1 Ratios are based only on Home Trust Company’s consolidated financial position.
Basel III Common Equity Tier 1
➢ Continue to buy back shares under NCIB ➢ Up to 10% of public float or ~4.7 million common shares in 2019 ➢ Capital ratio is not reduced by NCIB purchases
18.99% 7.00% 10.83% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% Home Regulatory Minimum Average of top 8 banks
CET1 ratio as of Q1 2019
NCIB activity
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Valuation and consensus
Market price $18.19
Latest book value $27.00 Price/BVPS 0.67x 2019E book value $29.18 Price/forecast BVPS 0.62x 2019E consensus eps $2.08 Earnings growth 2019/2018 25.3% Price/2019E eps 8.80x 2020E consensus eps $2.41 Earnings growth 2020/2019 15.9% Price/2020E consensus eps 7.55x
Opportunities for value creation: ✓ Growth in our asset base ✓ Accretion from share buybacks ✓ Improvements in funding cost ✓ Efficiencies from IT investment ✓ Other opportunities for strategic investment
Consensus data from Factset
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