SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION 1
Investor Presentation March 2017 SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation March 2017 SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation March 2017 SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION 1 Forward-looking statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of statements that
SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION 2
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of statements that include such words as “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “forecast”, “likely”, “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “suspect”, “outlook”, “potential”, “projected”, “continue” or other similar words or phrases. Specifically, forward-looking statements in this document include, but are not limited to guidance and certain expectations about capital costs and expenditures; production volumes; capital project completion and ramp up dates; future price of key commodities; sales volumes; revenue, costs, and earnings; sufficiency of working capital and capital project funding; results of on-going discussions regarding the partnership structure and future financing arrangements at the Ambatovy Joint Venture; results of discussions regarding timing of ongoing Cuban payments; completion of development and exploration wells; and amounts of certain joint venture commitments. Forward-looking statements are not based on historic facts, but rather on current expectations, assumptions and projections about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Corporation to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that predictions, forecasts, conclusions or projections will not prove to be accurate, that those assumptions may not be correct and that actual results may differ materially from such predictions, forecasts, conclusions or projections. The Corporation cautions viewers of this presentation not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statement as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed in the forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to changes in the global price for nickel, cobalt, oil and gas or certain other commodities, share-price volatility, level of liquidity and access to capital resources, access to financing, risk of future non-compliance with debt restrictions and covenants; risks associated with the Corporation’s joint venture partners; discrepancies between actual and estimated production; variability in production at Sherritt’s operations in Madagascar and Cuba; potential interruptions in transportation; uncertainty of gas supply for electrical generation; uncertainty of exploration results and Sherritt’s ability to replace depleted mineral and oil and gas reserves; the Corporation’s reliance on key personnel and skilled workers; the possibility of equipment and other failures; the potential for shortages of equipment and supplies; risks associated with mining, processing and refining activities; uncertainty of resources and reserve estimates; uncertainties in environmental rehabilitation provisions estimates; risks related to the Corporation’s corporate structure; political, economic and
- ther risks of foreign operations; risks related to Sherritt’s operations in Madagascar and Cuba; risks related to the U.S. government policy toward Cuba, including the U.S. embargo on Cuba and the Helms-
Burton legislation; risks related to amounts owed to the Corporation by the Malagasy and Cuban governments; risks related to the accuracy of capital and operating cost estimates; reliance on significant customers; foreign exchange and pricing risks; compliance with applicable environment, health and safety legislation and other associated matters; risks associated with governmental regulations regarding greenhouse gas emissions; maintaining the Corporation’s social license to grow and operate; risks relating to community relations; credit risks; shortage of equipment and supplies; competition in product markets; future market access; interest rate changes; risks in obtaining insurance; uncertainties in labour relations; uncertainty in the ability of the Corporation to enforce legal rights in foreign jurisdictions; uncertainty regarding the interpretation and/or application of the applicable laws in foreign jurisdictions; legal contingencies; risks related to the Corporation’s accounting policies; risks associated with future acquisitions; uncertainty in the ability of the Corporation to obtain government permits; failure to comply with, or changes to, applicable government regulations; bribery and corruption risks, including failure to comply with the Corruption of Foreign Public Officials Act or applicable local anti-corruption law; uncertainties in growth management; and certain corporate objectives, goals and plans for 2017; and the Corporation’s ability to meet other factors listed from time to time in the Corporation’s continuous disclosure documents. Viewers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive and should be considered in conjunction with the risk factors described in this presentation and in the Corporation’s other documents filed with the Canadian securities authorities. The Corporation may, from time to time, make oral forward-looking statements. The Corporation advises that the above paragraph and the risk factors described in this presentation and in the Corporation’s other documents filed with the Canadian securities authorities should be read for a description of certain factors that could cause the actual results of the Corporation to differ materially from those in the oral forward- looking statements. The forward-looking information and statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and the Corporation undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any oral
- r written forward-looking information or statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable securities laws. The forward-looking information and
statements contained herein are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. Non-GAAP Measures Management uses combined results, Adjusted EBITDA, average-realized price, unit operating cost, adjusted earnings, adjusted operating cash flow per share, free cash flow and Net Investment in Ambatovy to monitor the financial performance of the Corporation and its operating divisions and believes these measures enable investors and analysts to compare the Corporation’s financial performance with its competitors and evaluate the results of its underlying business. These measures do not have a standard definition under IFRS and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. As these measures do not have a standardized meaning, they may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies.
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Sherritt - A low cost cobalt and nickel producer, with a 20 year energy business in Cuba
Low cost producer of LME grade cobalt and nickel A 90 year track record Cuba’s largest independent oil producer and most efficient power producer Successfully carried out balance sheet initiatives to extend maturities and reduce debt
1 2 3 4
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NICKEL AND COBALT: ~83,500 t Ni + ~7,600 t Co(1)
(1) Estimated production at 100% basis, using mid point of 2017 guidance range
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Nickel structural supply deficits are forecast for the coming years
50 100 150 200 250 300 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Days of consumption Kt Existing supply Probable projects Consumption Global stocks (in days of consumption)
- A shortage of over 200kt of nickel supply is anticipated by 2020, and it should increase to c. 400kt by 2030
- Stocks remain high but are expected to decrease sharply in the short term
- Recent news on Indonesia easing of the ore ban on ore exports are unlikely to impact supply significantly
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Dataset: Q4 forecast 2016
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Nickel is used in lithium-ion batteries (e.g. nickel accounts for 80% of the LiNiCoAIO2 cathode used for the Tesla Model S or 33.3% of the LiNiMnCoO2 cathode used for the Tesla Powerwall)
Battery demand expected to account for most of the growth in nickel longer term…
Source: CRU
2016 Nickel demand
31% 69% Nickel demand in non-stainless Nickel demand in stainless 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Kt Batteries Non-ferrous alloys Alloy steel Plating Others
+10%
2015-2035 CAGR:
+2% +3% +2% +2%
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…this demand is mostly met by Class I nickel but new nickel supply is expected to be FeNi and NPI
- Today stocks of Class I nickel remain high
because of the increased availability of NPI, FeNi and other Class II products
- But the strong forecast demand for class I
units could lead to a shortage of high purity products
- The incentive nickel price to build additional
Class I nickel capacity is estimated to be US$30,000 – US$50,000 per tonne of Ni
- the medium to long term, a gap could
emerge between Class I and Class II nickel prices, with non-LME material subject to significant discounts
Source: CRU
New nickel production consists mostly of FeNi and NPI
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2015 2020 2030 Kt Ferronickel and NPI Others Briquettes Refined metal
Class I nickel supply is costly and takes time to build, could lead to a premium for Class I nickel products
High quality nickel
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Cobalt supply
Cobalt sources Mine production by country (2016)
Source: CRU
Most cobalt production is mined as a by-product and 61% of the total supply comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a country with a high geopolitical risk profile
61% 37% 2% Copper mines by-product Nickel mines by-product Primary cobalt mines
Cuba: 5% DRC: 61% Russia: 5% Australia: 5% Philippines: 3% Madagascar: 3% Canada: 3%
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 Co demand for EVs (Kt) Millions of vehicles EVs PHEVs HEVs Co demand
Electric Vehicles (EVs) will also drive the increase in cobalt demand
Source: CRU
- 30kt of cobalt will be consumed by electric vehicles in 2025 (vs. 8kt in 2016)
- There is no obvious substitute for cobalt in batteries and technology should remain stable in the medium term
Annual EV production and cobalt demand for EVs
The outlook for cobalt is very positive, especially in non-metallurgical applications due to the rise of the EV industry
Note: PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle
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$3.25 $3.75 $4.25 $4.75 $5.25 $5.75 $6.25 $6.75 $7.25 $7.75 $8.25 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017 Nickel 200-DMA $9 $11 $13 $15 $17 $19 $21 $23 $25 1/2/2015 1/2/2016 1/2/2017 Cobalt 200-DMA
The nickel and cobalt price trends from 2015 to date
Nickel vs. 200-DMA's Cobalt vs. 200-DMA's
+18% in 2016 (42%) in 2015 +37% in 2016 (24%) in 2015
- Avg. reference price
2015: US$5.37 2016: US$4.36
- Avg. reference price
2015: US$12.99 2016: US$11.77
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OUR OPERATIONS
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Power and Oil have supported adj. EBITDA in 2016
Metals Oil & Gas Power
Revenue
- Adj. EBITDA
Revenue
- Adj. EBITDA
Revenue
- Adj. EBITDA
Revenue and Adj. EBITDA 2016 as of December 31, 2016(1)(2)
(1) Excluding “Corporate and Other” (2) Combined revenue and Adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP measures
- 894 GWh generated in 2016
- 9,483 boepd (NWI) / 15,452 bopd
(GWI - Cuba) produced on average in 2016
- 33,306 t of finished nickel
(Sherritt’s share) produced in 2016 80% 17% 13% 45% 7% 38%
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$0 $30 $60 $90 $120 $150 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10
- Adj. EBITDA shows the sensitivity to nickel and
- il prices
LME - Spot Nickel Price (US$/lb) Gulf Coast Fuel Oil No. 6 (US$/bbl) Metals - Adjusted EBITDA ($ M) Oil & Gas - Adjusted EBITDA ($ M) Nickel Price (US$/lb) Gulf Coast Fuel Oil No. 6 (US$/bbl)
133 54 73 33 13 233 229 192 82 36 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average reference price: 7.95 6.81 7.65 5.37 4.36 99.31 92.99 82.55 40.68 32.13
- Nickel (US$/lb)
- GCF#6 (US$/bbl)
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Nickel and cobalt - A long-life asset base
Moa JV (50%) and Fort Site (100%)
- The oldest and lowest cost HPAL asset globally
- >15 more years of proven reserve life
- Cash flow positive on an annual basis at most points in the
nickel cycle
- Third acid plant at Moa finished construction on time and
under budget in 2016 and now in operation
Ambatovy JV (40%)
- The world’s largest finished nickel laterite project
- LME-grade nickel
- Deferral on 6 principal payments and not funding cash calls
due to the “40 for 12” issue
- Ongoing negotiations
Capital expenditure ($ M) Unit operating costs (US$/lb)(1)
LME quality HPAL nickel and cobalt production
$64 $33 $38 $24 $33 $61 2015 2016 2017e Moa (50%), Fort Site (100%) Ambatovy (40%)
(1) Mid point of 2017 guidance range
$3.88 $3.42 $3.45 $4.83 $4.27 $3.40 2015 2016 2017e Moa (50%), Fort Site (100%) Ambatovy (40%)
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Nickel and cobalt production (tonnes, Sherritt’s share)
Moa Ambatovy
Nickel
16,853 16,464 16,750 2015 2016 2017e 18,908 16,842 20,000 2015 2016 2017e 1,867 1,847 1,825 2015 2016 2017e 1,386 1,309 1,580 2015 2016 2017e
Cobalt Nickel Cobalt
Note: Mid point of 2017 guidance range
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(5) 5 10 15 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 C1 Cash Costs (US$/lb) Mlbs
Nickel cash cost curve and our positioning
2016 Nickel industry, normal C1 cash cost grouped by operation and ranked by cash cost (C1) existing operations and base case
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Dataset: Q4 2016
Ambatovy = US$4.27 (2016)
25th percentile = US$3.00 50th percentile = US$3.69
Moa = US$3.42 (2016)
Moa guidance: 3.20-3.70 Ambatovy guidance: 3.10-3.70
Ambatovy: US$3.10 (Q4 2016) Moa: US$3.80 (Q4 2016)
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Cash cost (NDCC) drivers for Moa and Ambatovy
- Third party feed usage and cobalt and fertilizer credit
Moa Ambatovy
2016 mining, processing and refining costs Other key drivers of NDCC
- Progress toward full capacity
2016 mining, processing and refining costs Other key drivers of NDCC
- US$3.20-3.70/lb
2017 NDCC guidance
- US$3.10-3.70/lb
2017 NDCC guidance
3% 16% 23% 9% 17% 18% 14% Diesel Coal / fuel oil / electricity Sulphur / acid Other variable costs Maintenance Labour and contractors Other fixed costs 4% 7% 12% 32% 29% 7% 8% Diesel Coal / fuel oil / electricity Sulphur / acid Other variable costs Maintenance Labour and contractors Other fixed costs
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Oil & Gas - A profitable and predictable history, with future production dependent on Block 10
Largest independent oil producer in Cuba
- 20+ year history in the country
- 209 wells drilled since 1992, 86% found oil
- Approximately 676,000 m drilled since 1992
- 213 million barrels produced
- Q4 2016 production of 7,452 bopd (NWI)
- 46 wells still producing
- Vertically integrated, own and operate 2 rigs
Strong contribution to adjusted EBITDA
- Low unit operating costs
- Benchmark realized prices to Gulf Coast Fuel Oil No. 6
Price, with GCF 6 ranging between 65 – 85% of WTI
Capital expenditure ($ M)
New drilling on Block 10 targeting another 20 year reservoir
Cuba unit operating costs ($/bbl)(1) Total production (NWI, boepd)(1)
11,158 9,483 6,700 2015 2016 2017e $9.53 $9.75 $11.50 2015 2016 2017e $55 $26 $73 2015 2016 2017e
(1) Mid point of 2017 guidance range
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Power
(1) Mid point of 2017 guidance range (2) 2016: including pipeline construction
Largest independent power producer in Cuba
- Sherritt Power operates in Cuba through its 331/3% interest
in Energas S.A.
- Aggregate net power capacity of 506MW with 3 facilities:
Varadero West, Puerto Escondido and Boca de Jaruco
- New pipeline to the Puerto Escondido facility is now
- perational
Strong adjusted cash flow generation
- Conditional sales agreement: loan to be repaid by Energas
($192M as of Dec. 31, 2016; 8% annual interest rate)
- Limited capital expenditure
Potential upside
- Cuba’s cleanest power, in a country where power
consumption grew by 4.8% in 2015 and should continue growing in the coming years
Capital expenditure ($ M)(2) Unit operating costs ($/MWh)(1) Power generation (331/3% basis, GWh)(1)
Resilient cash flow generation from operations + loan repayment
902 894 875 2015 2016 2017e $21.00 $22.94 $19.13 2015 2016 2017e $4 $6 $2 2015 2016 2017e
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FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
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Balance sheet cash from Dec. 31, 2015 to
- Dec. 31, 2016
In million of dollars
($84.6) ($40.2) ($14.8) ($6.7) $435.4 $72.1 $14.1 ($65.7) $309.6
- Dec. 31, 2015 -
Cash, cash equivalents and short term investments Adjusted
- perating cash
flow (ex. Corporate) Corporate Working capital change Capital expenditure Debt Repayment Fees paid on debenture extension Other
- Dec. 31, 2016 -
Cash, cash equivalents and short term investments
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Sensitivity to nickel prices (2016 FY basis / Moa at 50% + Ambatovy at 40%)
Assumptions:
- Oil prices unchanged
- Metals Adj. EBITDA includes $0.8M of “Other”
- 2016 production of 33,306 tonnes of finished nickel (Sherritt’s share) unchanged
- Operating costs and Capex unchanged, presenting Adj. EBITDA assuming higher nickel scenarios
Note:
- Average US$/C$ exchange rate of 1.33 for the period
- Average realized nickel price of C$ 5.65/lb (c. US$4.36), spot and consensus as of 01/05/17
$20 $48 $46 ($7) $22 $20 $13 $71 $66 (20) (10) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2016 avg realized price (US$4.3/lb) Spot price (US$5.0/lb) Analysts consensus for 2017 (US$4.9/lb)
- Adj. EBITDA (C$ M)
Nickel price (US$/lb) Moa Ambatovy Metals
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Sensitivity to nickel prices (2016 FY basis / Moa at 50% + Ambatovy at 12%)
Assumptions:
- Oil prices unchanged
- Metals Adj. EBITDA includes $0.8M of “Other”
- 2016 production of 21,781 tonnes of finished nickel (Sherritt’s theoritical share with Ambatovy at 12%)
- Operating costs and Capex unchanged, presenting Adj. EBITDA assuming higher nickel scenarios
Note:
- Average US$/C$ exchange rate of 1.33 for the period
- Average realized nickel price of C$ 5.65/lb (c. US$4.36), spot and consensus as of 01/05/17
$20 $20 $48 $46 ($7) ($2) $7 $6 $13 $18 $55 $52 (20) (10) 10 20 30 40 50 60 2016 avg realized price (US$4.3/lb, 40% stake) 2016 avg realized price (US$4.3/lb, 12% stake) Spot price (US$5.0/lb) Analysts consensus for 2017 (US$4.9/lb)
- Adj. EBITDA (C$ M)
Nickel price (US$/lb) Moa Ambatovy Metals
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Sensitivity to oil prices (2016 FY basis / Cuba only)
Assumptions:
- Nickel prices and 2016 oil production of 15,452 bopd (GWI) unchanged
- Other operating costs and Capex unchanged, presenting Adj. EBITDA assuming higher oil scenarios
Note:
- Average US$/C$ exchange rate of 1.33 for the period
- Average realized oil price of C$ 30/bbl (c. US$23), c. 70% of GCF 6 reference price over the period, spot and consensus as of 01/05/17
$36 $53 $56 $40 $58 $61 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2016 WTI avg ref. price (US$43.4) WTI spot price (US$53.1) WTI analysts consensus for 2017 (US$54.8)
- Adj. EBITDA (C$ M)
Reference oil price (US$/bbl) O&G Adj. EBITDA Sherritt Adj. EBITDA
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Key takeaways
- $310 million in cash and short-term investments, and no long term debt
maturity before Q4 2021
- A long operating track record through all phases of the cycle
- The largest and best established foreign mining and energy business in
Cuba
Nearing the end stages of Ambatovy negotiations and expecting Block 10 drill results
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APPENDICES
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2017 strategic priorities
Uphold global operational leadership in finished nickel production from laterites Optimize opportunities in Cuban energy business Preserve liquidity and build balance sheet strength 2017 strategic priorities Targets
- Further reduce NDCC at Moa and Ambatovy towards the
goal of achieving or remaining in the lowest quartile of global nickel cash costs
- Increase Ambatovy production and predictability over 2017
- Achieve peer leading performance in environmental, health,
safety and sustainability
- Determine future capital allocation based on results from
first two wells to be drilled on Block 10
- Strengthen strategic relationships in Cuba
- Finalize long-term Ambatovy equity and funding structure
- Optimize working capital and receivables collection
- Operate Metals and Power businesses to be free cash flow
neutral or better at forecast commodity prices
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Metals highlights
Nickel production (k tonnes) Moa: NDCC
- Avg. reference price: nickel (US$)
Cobalt production (k tonnes) Ambatovy: NDCC
16.9 16.5 16.8 18.9 16.8 20.0 2015 2016 2017e
Moa (50%) Ambatovy (40%)
1.9 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 2015 2016 2017e
Moa (50%) Ambatovy (40%)
$5.37 $4.36 2015 2016
- Avg. reference price: cobalt (US$)
Note: 2017e data represent the mid points of 2017 guidance
$3.88 $3.42 $3.45 2015 2016 2017e $4.83 $4.27 $3.40 2015 2016 2017e
(19%) (9%)
$12.99 $11.77 2015 2016
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Oil & Gas and Power highlights
Oil: Cuba GWI and total NWI Oil: Cuba unit operating costs
- Avg. reference price
Fuel Oil No. 6 (US$) Power (331/3% basis) GWh Power: unit operating costs
18,257 15,452 12,000 11,158 9,483 6,700 2015 2016 2017e
GWI Production Cuba NWI Production All
Note: 2017e data represent the mid points of 2017 guidance
$9.53 $9.75 $11.50 2015 2016 2017e
$40.68 $32.13
2015 2016 902 894 875 2015 2016 2017e $21.00 $22.94 $19.13 2015 2016 2017e
(21%)
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2017 production, NDCC and unit operating cost guidance
- Nickel production is forecast to increase in 2017, especially in the Ambatovy JV where full year production
rates are expected to be in line with fourth quarter 2016 performance
(1) Unit Operating Cost guidance figures are based on by-product and input commodity price assumptions for 2017, which are subject to change during the year, as cobalt, fertilizers, sulphur, West Texas Intermediate crude and fuel oil prices are typically volatile
2016 guidance 2016 actual 2017 guidance(1) Production volumes Nickel, finished (tonnes, 100% basis) Moa Joint Venture 32,500-33,000 32,928 33,000-34,000 Ambatovy Joint Venture 40,000-42,000 42,105 48,000-52,000 Total 72,500-75,000 75,033 81,000-86,000 Cobalt, finished (tonnes, 100% basis) Moa Joint Venture 3,300-3,800 3,694 3,500-3,800 Ambatovy Joint Venture 2,900-3,300 3,273 3,800-4,100 Total 6,200-7,100 6,967 7,300-7,900 Oil – Cuba (GWI, bopd) 15,000 15,452 11,500-12,500 Oil and Gas – All operations (NWI, boepd) 9,200 9,483 6,400-7,000 Electricity (GWh, 331/3% basis) 860 894 850-900 Unit operating costs NDCC (US$/lb) Moa Joint Venture
- 3.42
3.20-3.70 Ambatovy Joint Venture
- 4.27
3.10-3.70 Total
- 3.85
3.14-3.70 Oil and Gas – Cuba (unit operating costs, $/barrel)
- 9.75
11.00-12.00 Electricity (unit operating costs, $/MWh)
- 22.94
18.75-19.50
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2017 capital expenditure guidance - higher spending
- n capital due to the Oil & Gas growth plan
Metals
- Lower capital spending at Moa, which is consistent with 2016 levels excluding the acid plant, is offset by
higher spending at Ambatovy required for additional mining fleet equipment and mine development works
- Sherritt is currently not funding capex at Ambatovy
Oil and Gas
- Completion of the first Block 10 well and the drilling of a second well (US$25 million),
- Equipment to support drilling in Block 10 (US$18 million)
- Shooting of seismic on Block 8A (US$7 million), which was deferred in 2016 but is required to satisfy the
commitment expenditure on the block
US$ millions / ($ millions) 2016 guidance 2016 actual 2017 guidance Metals – Moa JV (50% basis), Fort Site (100% basis) US$38 US$25 (33) US$28 (38) Metals – Ambatovy JV (40% basis) US$25 US$25 (33) US$45 (61) Oil and Gas US$27 US$20 (26) US$55 (73) Power (331/3% basis) US$1 US$1 (1) US$1 (2) Power (331/3% basis) Pipeline Construction US$4 US$4 (5)
- Total capex
US$95 US$75 (98) US$129 (173)
SHERRITT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION 32 Sherritt International Corporation 181 Bay Street, 26th Floor, Brookfield Place Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4T 2Y7 Investor Relations Flora Wood Telephone: 416.935.2457 Toll-Free: 1.800.704.6698 Email: investor@sherritt.com Website: www.sherritt.com