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Investor Presentation – Pareto Conference
September 2016
Investor Presentation Pareto Conference September 2016 1 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation Pareto Conference September 2016 1 Forward Looking Statements Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities
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September 2016
Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and
historical facts, that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, the delivery of vessels, the outlook for tanker shipping rates, general industry conditions future operating results of the Company’s vessels, capital expenditures, expansion and growth opportunities, bank borrowings, financing activities and other such matters, are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations stated in this presentation are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking
those discussed in the forward-looking statements include the failure of counterparties to fully perform their obligations to us, the strength of the world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including changes in tanker vessel charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand for tankers, changes in our vessel operating expenses, including dry-docking, crewing and insurance costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities, ability of customers of our pools to perform their obligations under charter contracts on a timely basis, potential liability from future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents and political events or acts by terrorists. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or
events discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.
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Section 1
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W ELL POSI TI ONED FOR STRONG CASH FLOW GENERATI ON
Breakeven ( including debt service) (1):
~ USD 2 7 ,3 0 0 / day for VLCC – OpEx / day USD 8 ,1 6 5 ~ USD 2 4 ,0 0 0 / day for Suezmax – OpEx / day USD 7 ,5 2 0
3 MM barrels
2.8 MM barrels
30 VLCC (+2 TBD) Up to 330,000 DWT 2MM barrels
1MM barrels
20 SUEZMAX 150,000 – 165,000 DWT 1 V – PLUS (1) Over 441,000 DWT 2 FSO Stripped water capacity 380k barrels
Notes:
CURRENT FLEET – TOTAL 5 5 VESSELS – 1 3 .7 MM DW T
Only 4 in world fleet
W HO W E ARE Leading pure-play tanker company with best-in-class operating platform Committed to shareholder long-term value creation… Strong balance sheet Most liquid big tanker player in the world … with significant direct return to shareholders
Fixed I ncom e > USD 1 0 0 m illion of EBITDA (2) generated annually from fixed income contracts (FSO + TC contracts)
Spot I ncom e - High Leverage to Upside Each USD 5 ,0 0 0 uplift (above break-even) in both VLCC and Suezmax rates improves net revenue and EBITDA by USD 7 2 m illion
Yield or Grow th – W hy not both? 25 VLCC acquired in last 30 months 80% of annualized P&L returned to shareholders since January 2015 (3)
1. Before TC-in/fixed income 2. Proportionate consolidation method & FSO contribution current contract runs to Q3 2017 3. Details of Company distribution policy at www.euronav.com
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70 75 80 85 90 95 100 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Tanker sector rem ain CYCLI CAL but……………… Financing becom ing STRUCTURALLY restricted
newbuilding orders – less cyclical extremes
growth last 20 years
access leading to higher & more sustainable returns
5 % grow th YOY VLCC fleet m barrels consum ed per day
Mid to long term outlook positive
Source IEA, BLoomberg
last 25 years with Yearly average 1.1 mbpd
for 2016 and 1.2mbpd EVERY year to 2020
global crude demand
Non OPEC reduction
New Sw ing Producer very resilient & responsive
sanction output forecast late 2016
impacted by factors increasing tonnage
substantially & shipyards under reform pressure
barrels been replaced by primarily Middle East supply reducing ton miles
increase ton miles from 2017
(Basel 3 & 4) restricting lending
loans has reduced risk appetite
PE & ship owners
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Section 2
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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $ USD / Day Minimum 2009-2014 Maximum 2009-2014 2015 2016
TANKER RATES SEASONAL BY NATURE – VLCC EARNI NGS 2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 6 SEASONALI TY BUI LT I N – EVERY Q2 DEMAND RETREATS AS REFI NERY MAI NTENANCE & NORTHERN HEMI SPHERE I NTO SUMMER
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Million barrels per day 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average 2011-2015 Source Clarksons Source IEA
DI SLOCATI ON I N VLCC EQUI VALENT TERMS = LOSS OF APPROX 2 0 VLCCS ( ANNUALI SED) West Africa Middle East Asia Pacific 29 – 32 VLCCs 52 – 54 VLCCs 1 mbpd x 365 days = 365m barrels 365m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 183 cargoes 183 cargoes / 9 annual journeys for VLCC MEG – F East
= 2 0 VLCCs
China LatAm / Caribs
Source Euronav, Morgan Stanley
Arabian Gulf to China 5 ,5 0 0 m iles 2 1 days W est Africa to China 9 ,6 5 0 m iles 3 3 days LatAm to China 1 1 ,5 0 0 m iles 4 4 days 9
1 mbpd x 365 days = 365m barrels 365m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 183 cargoes 183 cargoes / 4.5 annual journeys for VLCC Atlantic – F East
= 4 0 VLCCs
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summers (Mid East / Caribs)
years
Venezuela (200k) has dislocated ton miles
focus on diversifying crude sourcing
by ship ow ners reducing average VLCC speeds by c 1 0 % since w eaker rates
August 2016 v 14 in same 2015 period
Section 3
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11
OI L PRI CE OUTLOOK
Demand for Oil
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USD per barrel
Dem and Destructive 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 4 proved in this oil price range that dem and w as destroyed Neutral Dem and Stim ulating proven over time that the cheaper the commodity price the greater it is used Dem and Disruptive Current structure of global markets mean energy/ capex/ sovereign wealth effects > consumer stimulus from lower oil prices Capex cuts in E&P Potential coordinated cuts in production QE returns/ $ loss of value/ oil as financial asset Lack of disruption/ market share game Iran and other supply remain high Shale - as swing producer increases
0.3 1 0.5 0.3 1 1.5 1.9 2 0.3 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.5 3.1 1.4 1 1.6
3.1 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.8 1.3
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Million barrels per day
GLOBAL OI L DEMAND 1 9 9 0-2 0 1 6 ( MB/ D)
Demand for Oil
Average oil dem and grow th 1 9 9 0 -2 01 5 = 1 .1 m bpd
Source IEA
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Q 1 2 1 5 Q 1 2 1 6 Q 3 2 1 5 Q 2 2 1 6 Q 3 2 1 6 Q 2 2 1 5
FORECAST
2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
I NDI A CRUDE DEMAND – I NCREASI NG I N I MPORTANCE
Source Bloomberg energy Source Bloomberg Energy
CHI NA CRUDE OI L I MPORT DI VERSI FI CATI ON CONTI NUES
Russia 14% Saudi Arabia 14% Oman 11% Angola 10% Iraq 9% Iran 6% Venezuela 6% Kuwait 4% Brazil 3% Kzakhstan 1% Libya 1% Other 20% Source Bloomberg
CHI NA CRUDE DEMAND – ROBUST
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Millions m etric tonnes
Total < = Sept 2 0 0 1 Sept 2 0 0 1 -2 0 16 On Order No 680 135 545 113 % 100% 20% 80% 16% I dle/ On storage 7% 37 13 N/ A
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VLCC TRADI NG FLEET AGE PROFI LE
Supply of Vessels
Source Clarksons 5 1 1 7 3 1 4 3 3 4 3 2 1 4 1 2 3 5 3 5 16 8 10 25 39 24 3 36 37 29 31 18 29 39 52 56 63 49 30 24 20 29 34 38 39 2
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 No of Vessels
Idle/ On storage Fleet < = Sept 2001 Fleet Sept 2001-2016 On Order
Total < = Sept 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 -2 0 1 6 On Order No 453 87 366 78 % 100% 19% 81% 17% I dle/ On storage 2% 8 2 N/ A
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SUEZMAX TRADI NG FLEET AGE PROFI LE
2 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 3 5 4 5 9 17 9 18 11 2 23 18 25 23 23 20 14 45 38 42 46 18 8 9 12 21 51 6
10 20 30 40 50 60 No of Vessels
Idle/ On storage Fleet < = Sept 2001 Fleet Sept 2001-2016 On Order
Supply of Vessels
Source Clarksons
USD 1 .5 m USD 2 m USD 2 .5 m USD 3 .2 5 m USD 4 m
5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5 20 22.5
TANKER SHI PPI NG – A HI GHLY REGULATED I NDUSTRY
Costs of surveys increase during tanker life leading to scrapping decision
Average cumulative survey cost (17.5 21 years) > USD 7.25 mm Median scrap age = 20 years
Constant vetting process throughout ship life 1 0 0 % utilisation
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EARNI NGS POTENTI AL REDUCES POST 1 5 YEARS
Supply of Vessels
Special Survey # 1 Special Survey # 2 Special Survey # 3 I S Dry # 4 SS # 5
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COST OF AND ACCESS TO CAPI TAL CHANGI NG I N SHI PPI NG ADJUSTED FOR I NFLATI ON ASSET VALUES CLOSE TO 3 0 YEAR LOW S UNLI KE PREVI OUS CYCLES – VI RTUALLY NO SPECULATI VE ORDERS REPLACEMENT RATI O FOR VLCC FLEET AT HI STORI C LOW S
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Source Clarksons Source Arctic Source Evercore
Ratio of order book/ vessel > 1 5 years old
10 20 30 40 50 60 I ndustrial players Quoted Companies Chinese Speculative orders
Anticyclical buffer
Additional Tier 1 - 1.5% Tier 2 - 2.0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Basel II Basel II I
Equity requirem ent
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Asset price ( in m illions)
VLCC (5-Year) I nflation-Adjusted VLCC (5-Year) Source UBS, Clarksons
Orders since January 2 0 1 5
TEAPOT REFI NERY EXPANSI ON DOMESTI C CRUDE PRODUCTI ON STRATEGI C PETROLEUM RESERVE ( SPR)
OPERATI ONAL ECONOMY
classification change June 16
days coverage = 12m x 55days = 660m bbls
SPR = 234m in “early January” 2016
granted licences 1.3 mbpd (JP Morgan)
indicates growing power
source crude via Unipec positive for tankers
diversify sourcing of oil
production falling (1H16: 7.3% )
bpd = 1 VLCC needed every 10 days
China consumes 11.8 mbpd (source: IEA) so small % change means large no of barrels
sales + 26% YoY July (Bernstein)
Source IEA, McQuilling, Bernstein, Barclays< Petrowin, Bloomberg
Demand for Oil
100 200 300 400 500 600
m illion barrels
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Chinese oil im ports ( 2 0 0 6 -2 0 1 6 )
Source China Customs Source BP Annual report
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0
U.S. shale crude and condensate production ( MMB/ D)
USD 110-120 USD 100-110 USD 90-100 USD 80-90 USD 70-80 USD 60-70 USD 50-60 USD 40-50 Base to USD 40 Base
0.6 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.7
W HO I S GOI NG TO MATERI ALLY CUT? NEED CO-ORDI NATI ON BETW EEN THE TOP 1 0 PRODUCERS = 6 0 % W ORLD SUPPLY MOST SHALE PRODUCTI ON KI CKS I N AGAI N USD 5 0 -6 0 SHALE OI L SPEED TO PRODUCTI ON I S KEY
Supply of Oil
Average field development (approval to start up) time by resource [ years, selected areas]
Source SBC Analysis, Rystad
USA 12.8* Russia 11.1 Saudi Arabia 10.2 Canada 4.5 China 4.4 Iraq 4.3 UAE 2.9 Iran 2.9 FSU ex Russia 2.9 Kuwait 2.8
m illion barrels per day
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Source Pira
Source Bloomberg Energy
Around USD 100bn withdrawn from shipping sector since 2009
flexibility severely curtailed due to Basel II & III
loans in distress
lending capital restricted for commercial reasons
the lack of liquidity implying a return to the sector difficult to realize
segments under severe financial pressure
have mixed fleets so pressure felt within
shipping segments leading to ship yard distress
actively adopted by shipyards driven by governments
Financing
Source: Tufton, Marine m oney london 2 0 1 5
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Section 4
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Other VLCC Tanker Pools ( Ships on the W ater)
with vessels of similar sizes and quality participate
Source: Clarkson’s – Total 680 VLCC ships @ 6 Sept 2016 Source: Company reports
Red indicates Captive or Sovereign fleet Blue indicates fleet in stock listed companies
Differentiate spot players vs industrial players
SI ZE I S CRI TI CAL TO I MPROVE MARKET KNOW LEDGE BARRI ER TO ENTRY – I NFORMATI ON
Heidm ar – VLCC Seaw olf
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Navig8 – VL8
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China VLCC
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1 Ship Owner, 37 Vessels 2 Ship Owner, 52 3 Ship Owner, 27 10 – 15 Ship Owner, 103 COSCO Group, 32 4 – 10 Ship Owner, 168 SK Holdings, 18 Nippon YK, 19 DHT Group , 19 Angelicoussis Group, 31 Euronav NV , 31 Bahri, 36 MOL, 32 China Merchants Grp, 37 NIOC, 38
Top 1 0 Ow ners Control 4 3 %
VLCC Fleet
55 37 18
Small owners are data deficient (284 VLCCs)
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CAPI TAL ALLOCATI ON
Capex Liquidity reserve M&A criteria – balance sheet M&A – operational Shareholder Focus
maintenance capex (dry-docks)
at all times
relationships
non-accretive new equity
must on pro-forma basis either match
even costs Yield or Grow th – w hy not both? 25 VLCC acquired in last 30 months 80% of annual P&L returned to shareholders since January 2015*
Strong balance sheet Leverage
through cycle
according to where we are in the cycle
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* See Distribution policy on Euronav w ebsite w w w .euronav.com
Section 4
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MOST TANKER OW NERS HEAVI LY EXPOSED TO OTHER SHI PPI NG CURRENT I RANI AN VLCC FLEET USAGE – NEUTRAL I MPACT
Source Clarksons
ORDER BOOK AS % OF FLEET – MANAGEABLE
Source Clarksons
LNG 35% Containers 32% Dry bulk 33% 10 20 30 40 50 60 VLCC Suezmax
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200 400 600 800 1000 1-5 VLCCs 5-9 VLCCs 10-14 VLCCs 15-19 VLCCs 20+ + VLCCs Container Dry Bulk Product Aframax Suezmax
Source EIA, September 2015
1 7 % 1 6 %
OPEC QUOTAS? OPEC HAS NEVER COMPLI ED W I TH QUOTAS
Source Clarksons
I n Service Long Term Storage Repairs/ Laid up 2013 7 2009 1 2009 1 2012 5 2008 4 2003 1 2009 1 2007 1 1999 1 2008 2 2004 2 2003 2 2003 2 1999 1 2002 3 1996 2 1996 2 Total 2 0 Total 1 5 Total 3
CURRENT US OI L EXPORTS – SMALL BASE BUT GROW I NG
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Source US DoE Statistics Source Morgan Stanley 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2014 2015 2016
GLOBAL REFI NERY BUI LD OUT UNDERPI NS DEMAND GROW TH
1383 1303 1431 6582
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019+ + E
kbd
FSU Middle East Asia/ Pacific Africa Latin America N Am + EU
$43,372 $40,048 $37,962 $32,615 $35,652 $36,851 $35,887 $29,567 $31,114 $36,315 $45,944 $51,236
$25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 Jan Feb Mrt Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
Q4 SEASONAL PEAK CAN BE EXTREME – AVERAGE VLCC RATE 1 9 9 0 -2 0 1 6
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Low price, high oil resource Low oil price / ref case High oil resource
Crude export scenarios MEDI UM & LONG TERM EXPECT US EXPORTS TO GROW TO C 2 M BPD ( EI A)
Source Clarksons Source Barclays
Source Bloomberg based on average Exchange volumes over past 12 months (EURN US 870k + EURN BB 540k per day) to Sept 9 2016
LI QUI DI TY GI VES SHAREHOLDERS OPTI ONALI TY
More Trading Hours
Euronext Brussels: 9 a.m. – 5. 30 p.m. (CET) NYSE: 9.30 a.m. – 4 p.m. (EST)
Average daily volume shares = 1 .4 1 m shares per day Ticker Symbol: EURN Average daily volume USD = USD 1 6 m per day TOTAL Velocity = 3 4 0 % * Free float = 8 5 %
* Calculation method = daily volume x trading days / free float
TOTAL TRADED VALUE OF EURONAV US AND BB SHARES ( SAME SHARE) - EURN US EQUI TY & EURN BB EQUI TY 27
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% EURN US EURN BB
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7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5
Knots per hour VLCC Suezmax
Source Bloomberg Energy
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Source Euronav * assume 6% pa growth
2009 - China stated objective to comply with IEA best practice on SPR
IEA guidance – SPR = 90 days of previous years net oil imports; SPR therefore not a static number nor a luxury
New acronym CPR (Commercial Petroleum Reserve)
June 2016 China Govt able to lease commercial capacity = 404m bbls with 240m bbls in use; so 160m capacity added
Sept 2016 Chinese Govt stated SPR in “early” 2016 = 234m bbls
Likely to have added c 110-160m bbls during 2016 – so approaching SPR capacity but legislation changes increased by 160m bbls
Total SPR capacity c 350m bbls + 160m CPR = 510m bbls total strategic capacity v c 400m bbls currently stored
Further SPR & CPR capacity additions expected 2017- 2020
I m ports ( m bpd) * Days ( cover) SPR target ( m bbls) 2016 8.0 90 2017 8.5 90 720 2018 9.0 90 763 2019 9.5 90 809 2020 10.1 90 858
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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Thousands
Pacific Europe U.S.
Euronav view
= W ORST CASE = 2 0 -2 5 VLCCs displaced as “excess” is draw n dow n = BEST CASE = Brent / W TI differential drives inventory exported requiring VLCC
CRUDE I NVENTORY GLOBAL “EXCESS” 2 0 0 M BBLS – PRI MARI LY STORED I N USA & EUROPE AND NOT W HERE I NCREMENTAL DEMAND GROW TH LOCATED I N FAR EAST
Source IEA * Average number of VLCC voyages per annum = 4.5
54 62 49 30 24 23 29 16 45 48 2
20 40 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Additions Forecast Additions Scrapped Must be scrapped (over 22,5 years old) Could be scrapped (≥20 years old) depending on market levels
Net:4 0 Net:2 2 Net:3 7 Net:4 1 Net:1 3 Net:6 Net:8 Net:3 7 Net:3 6 Net:-6 56
VLCC – ADDI TI ONS, SCRAPPI NG, REMOVALS I MPLI ED BUFFER
Supply of Vessels
BASE CASE
Source Clarksons
31
Net: 2 4 Net: 2 9 Net: 3 1 Net: -3 1
NET POTENTI AL
32 65 29 46 56
Scheduled deliveries
38 43 45 27 8 10 12 15 45 18
5 15 25 35 45 55 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Additions Forecast Additions Scrapped Must be scrapped (over 22.5 years old) Could be scrapped (≥20 years old) depending on market levels
Q1= 3 Q2= 4 Q3= 2 Q4= 1
Net:2 0 Net:-1 Net:1 0 Net:2 4 Net:1 1 Net:3 9 Net:2 5 Net:3 6 Net:1 9 Net:-1 1
NET POTENTI AL
SUEZMAX – ADDI TI ONS, SCRAPPI NG, REMOVALS I MPLI ED BUFFER
Supply of Vessels
BASE CASE
Source Clarksons
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Net: 1 9 Net: 3 1 Net: -6 Net: -2 6 29 39 15 61 63 63
Scheduled deliveries