Investor Presentation Pareto Conference September 2016 1 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Investor Presentation Pareto Conference September 2016 1 Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investor Presentation Pareto Conference September 2016 1 Forward Looking Statements Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities


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SLIDE 1

1

Investor Presentation – Pareto Conference

September 2016

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SLIDE 2

Forward Looking Statements

Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements under U.S. federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and

  • ther statements, which are other than statements of historical facts. All statements, other than statements of

historical facts, that address activities, events or developments that the Company expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, the delivery of vessels, the outlook for tanker shipping rates, general industry conditions future operating results of the Company’s vessels, capital expenditures, expansion and growth opportunities, bank borrowings, financing activities and other such matters, are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations stated in this presentation are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking

  • statements. Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from

those discussed in the forward-looking statements include the failure of counterparties to fully perform their obligations to us, the strength of the world economies and currencies, general market conditions, including changes in tanker vessel charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand for tankers, changes in our vessel operating expenses, including dry-docking, crewing and insurance costs, or actions taken by regulatory authorities, ability of customers of our pools to perform their obligations under charter contracts on a timely basis, potential liability from future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents and political events or acts by terrorists. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or

  • therwise, except as required by law. In light of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward looking

events discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

2

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SLIDE 3

Section 1

Euronav at a Glance

2

3

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SLIDE 4

Euronav – Largest Tanker Company in the World

W ELL POSI TI ONED FOR STRONG CASH FLOW GENERATI ON

Breakeven ( including debt service) (1):

~ USD 2 7 ,3 0 0 / day for VLCC – OpEx / day USD 8 ,1 6 5 ~ USD 2 4 ,0 0 0 / day for Suezmax – OpEx / day USD 7 ,5 2 0

1

3 MM barrels

  • Avg. age 13 years

2.8 MM barrels

  • Avg. age 14 years

30 VLCC (+2 TBD) Up to 330,000 DWT 2MM barrels

  • Avg. age 6 years

1MM barrels

  • Avg. age 10 years

20 SUEZMAX 150,000 – 165,000 DWT 1 V – PLUS (1) Over 441,000 DWT 2 FSO Stripped water capacity 380k barrels

Notes:

  • 1. Only 4 V-Plus vessels in world fleet

CURRENT FLEET – TOTAL 5 5 VESSELS – 1 3 .7 MM DW T

Only 4 in world fleet

W HO W E ARE Leading pure-play tanker company with best-in-class operating platform Committed to shareholder long-term value creation… Strong balance sheet Most liquid big tanker player in the world … with significant direct return to shareholders

Fixed I ncom e > USD 1 0 0 m illion of EBITDA (2) generated annually from fixed income contracts (FSO + TC contracts)

2

Spot I ncom e - High Leverage to Upside Each USD 5 ,0 0 0 uplift (above break-even) in both VLCC and Suezmax rates improves net revenue and EBITDA by USD 7 2 m illion

3

Yield or Grow th – W hy not both? 25 VLCC acquired in last 30 months 80% of annualized P&L returned to shareholders since January 2015 (3)

4

1. Before TC-in/fixed income 2. Proportionate consolidation method & FSO contribution current contract runs to Q3 2017 3. Details of Company distribution policy at www.euronav.com

4

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SLIDE 5

70 75 80 85 90 95 100 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Shipping– access to finance is key in the “new normal”

Tanker sector rem ain CYCLI CAL but……………… Financing becom ing STRUCTURALLY restricted

  • “New Norm al” financing restricts amount of

newbuilding orders – less cyclical extremes

  • Oil dem and NOT cyclical – 1.1m average demand

growth last 20 years

  • I ndustrial players (more disciplined) will retain capital

access leading to higher & more sustainable returns

5 % grow th YOY VLCC fleet m barrels consum ed per day

 Mid to long term outlook positive

Source IEA, BLoomberg

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SLIDE 6

Demand for Oil ROBUST

  • Oil demand growing

last 25 years with Yearly average 1.1 mbpd

  • IEA forecast 1.4mbpd

for 2016 and 1.2mbpd EVERY year to 2020

  • Only 2 negative years
  • f growth since 1990 for

global crude demand

Supply of Oil

BALANCED

  • OPEC supply growth =

Non OPEC reduction

  • USA production shale

New Sw ing Producer very resilient & responsive

  • Iran increase to pre

sanction output forecast late 2016

Supply of Vessels

S/ TERM HEADW I NDS L/ TERM MANAGEABLE

  • Seasonal trends

impacted by factors increasing tonnage

  • Contracting rate fallen

substantially & shipyards under reform pressure

Ton Miles

REDUCED

  • Atlantic sourced

barrels been replaced by primarily Middle East supply reducing ton miles

  • USA crude exports to

increase ton miles from 2017

Financing

NEW BARRI ER TO ENTRY

  • New regulations

(Basel 3 & 4) restricting lending

  • Distress in shipping

loans has reduced risk appetite

  • Equity in retreat

PE & ship owners

Oil Tankers Five Key Drivers

1 2 3 4 5

6

2015 – All Green Long Term – All Green 2016-2017 – Mixed

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SLIDE 7

Section 2

Current trading

5

7

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SLIDE 8

8

REMEMBER – Tankers remains a Seasonal Business

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $ USD / Day Minimum 2009-2014 Maximum 2009-2014 2015 2016

TANKER RATES SEASONAL BY NATURE – VLCC EARNI NGS 2 0 0 9 -2 0 1 6 SEASONALI TY BUI LT I N – EVERY Q2 DEMAND RETREATS AS REFI NERY MAI NTENANCE & NORTHERN HEMI SPHERE I NTO SUMMER

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Million barrels per day 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average 2011-2015 Source Clarksons Source IEA

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SLIDE 9

Ton Mile Dislocation

DI SLOCATI ON I N VLCC EQUI VALENT TERMS = LOSS OF APPROX 2 0 VLCCS ( ANNUALI SED) West Africa Middle East Asia Pacific 29 – 32 VLCCs 52 – 54 VLCCs 1 mbpd x 365 days = 365m barrels 365m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 183 cargoes 183 cargoes / 9 annual journeys for VLCC MEG – F East

= 2 0 VLCCs

China LatAm / Caribs

Source Euronav, Morgan Stanley

Arabian Gulf to China 5 ,5 0 0 m iles 2 1 days W est Africa to China 9 ,6 5 0 m iles 3 3 days LatAm to China 1 1 ,5 0 0 m iles 4 4 days 9

1 mbpd x 365 days = 365m barrels 365m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 183 cargoes 183 cargoes / 4.5 annual journeys for VLCC Atlantic – F East

= 4 0 VLCCs

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SLIDE 10

10

  • Reduction of delays in key ports Q2  Q3
  • Weather impact less prevalent than previous

summers (Mid East / Caribs)

  • One tim e negative im pact on supply
  • Seasonality built into tanker sector
  • Cargo count all times high during 2016
  • Q4 rates + 7 0 % on average in 1 4 out of last 1 6

years

  • Loss of Atlantic barrels - Nigeria (600-800k bpd) &

Venezuela (200k) has dislocated ton miles

  • Nigeria force m ajeure ending; Far East retains

focus on diversifying crude sourcing

  • Speeds important as can alter tonnage capacity
  • Operational flexibility – affirm ative action taken

by ship ow ners reducing average VLCC speeds by c 1 0 % since w eaker rates

  • 29 VLCC & Suezmax delivered to global fleet April –

August 2016 v 14 in same 2015 period

  • New vessels not vetted so first voyage at discount
  • Tanker delivery rate peaks m id 2 0 1 7

Q3 I MPACTS Q4 BEYOND AND RESPONSE CONGESTI ON SEASONALI TY SUBSTI TUTI ON – LOSS TON MI LES I NCREASED CAPACI TY/ VESSELS W I THOUT VETTI NGS SPEED

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SLIDE 11

Section 3

Industry Dynamics

5

11

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SLIDE 12

Oil Price – Impact on Demand

OI L PRI CE OUTLOOK

Demand for Oil

1

12

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USD per barrel

Dem and Destructive 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 4 proved in this oil price range that dem and w as destroyed Neutral Dem and Stim ulating proven over time that the cheaper the commodity price the greater it is used Dem and Disruptive Current structure of global markets mean energy/ capex/ sovereign wealth effects > consumer stimulus from lower oil prices Capex cuts in E&P Potential coordinated cuts in production QE returns/ $ loss of value/ oil as financial asset Lack of disruption/ market share game Iran and other supply remain high Shale - as swing producer increases

  • utput
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SLIDE 13

0.3 1 0.5 0.3 1 1.5 1.9 2 0.3 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.5 3.1 1.4 1 1.6

  • 0.7
  • 0.9

3.1 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.8 1.3

  • 1
  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Million barrels per day

Demand – steady, robust and diversified

GLOBAL OI L DEMAND 1 9 9 0-2 0 1 6 ( MB/ D)

Demand for Oil

1

Average oil dem and grow th 1 9 9 0 -2 01 5 = 1 .1 m bpd

Source IEA

13

Est.

Q 1 2 1 5 Q 1 2 1 6 Q 3 2 1 5 Q 2 2 1 6 Q 3 2 1 6 Q 2 2 1 5

Est.

FORECAST

2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

I NDI A CRUDE DEMAND – I NCREASI NG I N I MPORTANCE

Source Bloomberg energy Source Bloomberg Energy

CHI NA CRUDE OI L I MPORT DI VERSI FI CATI ON CONTI NUES

Russia 14% Saudi Arabia 14% Oman 11% Angola 10% Iraq 9% Iran 6% Venezuela 6% Kuwait 4% Brazil 3% Kzakhstan 1% Libya 1% Other 20% Source Bloomberg

CHI NA CRUDE DEMAND – ROBUST

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Millions m etric tonnes

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SLIDE 14

VLCC fleet age profile

Total < = Sept 2 0 0 1 Sept 2 0 0 1 -2 0 16 On Order No 680 135 545 113 % 100% 20% 80% 16% I dle/ On storage 7% 37 13 N/ A

14

VLCC TRADI NG FLEET AGE PROFI LE

Supply of Vessels

4

Source Clarksons 5 1 1 7 3 1 4 3 3 4 3 2 1 4 1 2 3 5 3 5 16 8 10 25 39 24 3 36 37 29 31 18 29 39 52 56 63 49 30 24 20 29 34 38 39 2

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 No of Vessels

Idle/ On storage Fleet < = Sept 2001 Fleet Sept 2001-2016 On Order

20% 16% 80%

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SLIDE 15

Suezmax fleet age profile

Total < = Sept 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 -2 0 1 6 On Order No 453 87 366 78 % 100% 19% 81% 17% I dle/ On storage 2% 8 2 N/ A

15

SUEZMAX TRADI NG FLEET AGE PROFI LE

2 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 3 5 4 5 9 17 9 18 11 2 23 18 25 23 23 20 14 45 38 42 46 18 8 9 12 21 51 6

10 20 30 40 50 60 No of Vessels

Idle/ On storage Fleet < = Sept 2001 Fleet Sept 2001-2016 On Order

19% 17% 81%

Supply of Vessels

4

Source Clarksons

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SLIDE 16

USD 1 .5 m USD 2 m USD 2 .5 m USD 3 .2 5 m USD 4 m

5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5 20 22.5

TANKER SHI PPI NG – A HI GHLY REGULATED I NDUSTRY

Scrapping Decision Making Process: Driver= Time Catalyst= Rates

Costs of surveys increase during tanker life leading to scrapping decision

Average cumulative survey cost (17.5  21 years) > USD 7.25 mm Median scrap age = 20 years

Constant vetting process throughout ship life 1 0 0 % utilisation

16

EARNI NGS POTENTI AL REDUCES POST 1 5 YEARS

Supply of Vessels

4

Special Survey # 1 Special Survey # 2 Special Survey # 3 I S Dry # 4 SS # 5

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SLIDE 17

17

COST OF AND ACCESS TO CAPI TAL CHANGI NG I N SHI PPI NG ADJUSTED FOR I NFLATI ON ASSET VALUES CLOSE TO 3 0 YEAR LOW S UNLI KE PREVI OUS CYCLES – VI RTUALLY NO SPECULATI VE ORDERS REPLACEMENT RATI O FOR VLCC FLEET AT HI STORI C LOW S

Asset price background encouraging on several levels

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Source Clarksons Source Arctic Source Evercore

Ratio of order book/ vessel > 1 5 years old

10 20 30 40 50 60 I ndustrial players Quoted Companies Chinese Speculative orders

  • Min. Req. - Tier 1
  • 4.0%
  • Min. Req. - Tier 1
  • 4.5%
  • Min. Req. - Tier 2
  • 4.0%
  • Capt. Main. buffer
  • Tier 1 - 2.5%

Anticyclical buffer

  • Tier 1 - 2.0%

Additional Tier 1 - 1.5% Tier 2 - 2.0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Basel II Basel II I

Equity requirem ent

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Asset price ( in m illions)

VLCC (5-Year) I nflation-Adjusted VLCC (5-Year) Source UBS, Clarksons

Orders since January 2 0 1 5

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SLIDE 18

TEAPOT REFI NERY EXPANSI ON DOMESTI C CRUDE PRODUCTI ON STRATEGI C PETROLEUM RESERVE ( SPR)

1

OPERATI ONAL ECONOMY

China & Oil Tankers – Four Reasons for Confidence

  • Storage

classification change June 16

  • China needs 55

days coverage = 12m x 55days = 660m bbls

  • China confirmed

SPR = 234m in “early January” 2016

  • Reforms have

granted licences 1.3 mbpd (JP Morgan)

  • Procurement JV

indicates growing power

  • Agreement to

source crude via Unipec positive for tankers

  • China continue

diversify sourcing of oil

  • Domestic

production falling (1H16: 7.3% )

  • 6% fall = 200k

bpd = 1 VLCC needed every 10 days

  • BASE EFFECT –

China consumes 11.8 mbpd (source: IEA) so small % change means large no of barrels

  • Passenger car

sales + 26% YoY July (Bernstein)

Source IEA, McQuilling, Bernstein, Barclays< Petrowin, Bloomberg

Demand for Oil

1

100 200 300 400 500 600

m illion barrels

18

Chinese oil im ports ( 2 0 0 6 -2 0 1 6 )

Source China Customs Source BP Annual report

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SLIDE 19

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0

U.S. shale crude and condensate production ( MMB/ D)

USD 110-120 USD 100-110 USD 90-100 USD 80-90 USD 70-80 USD 60-70 USD 50-60 USD 40-50 Base to USD 40 Base

0.6 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.7

Oil supply high - shale the new swing producer

W HO I S GOI NG TO MATERI ALLY CUT? NEED CO-ORDI NATI ON BETW EEN THE TOP 1 0 PRODUCERS = 6 0 % W ORLD SUPPLY MOST SHALE PRODUCTI ON KI CKS I N AGAI N USD 5 0 -6 0 SHALE OI L SPEED TO PRODUCTI ON I S KEY

Supply of Oil

2

Average field development (approval to start up) time by resource [ years, selected areas]

Source SBC Analysis, Rystad

USA 12.8* Russia 11.1 Saudi Arabia 10.2 Canada 4.5 China 4.4 Iraq 4.3 UAE 2.9 Iran 2.9 FSU ex Russia 2.9 Kuwait 2.8

m illion barrels per day

19

Source Pira

Source Bloomberg Energy

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SLIDE 20

HUGE REDUCTI ON I N SHI PPI NG BANK EXPOSURE

Around USD 100bn withdrawn from shipping sector since 2009

REGULATI ONS FORCE LEVERAGE DOW N

  • Banks lending

flexibility severely curtailed due to Basel II & III

  • Shipping & Energy

loans in distress

  • Quantum of available

lending capital restricted for commercial reasons

PRI VATE EQUI TY I N RETREAT

  • PE exiting shipping
  • PE been surprised by

the lack of liquidity implying a return to the sector difficult to realize

SHI P OW NERS UNDER PRESSURE

  • Other shipping

segments under severe financial pressure

  • Most tanker owners

have mixed fleets so pressure felt within

  • wnership structure

SHI PYARD PRESSURE TO RESTRUCTURE & REDUCE CAPACI TY

  • Low order books in all

shipping segments leading to ship yard distress

  • Reforms being

actively adopted by shipyards driven by governments

Increasing Barriers to Entry

Financing

5

Source: Tufton, Marine m oney london 2 0 1 5

20

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SLIDE 21

Section 4

Our Strategy

16

21

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SLIDE 22

Maximizing Value Through Information

Other VLCC Tanker Pools ( Ships on the W ater)

  • Tankers International = Only owner-led VLCC pool
  • No value leakage; no commissions  Cost center
  • Leading spot market oriented VLCC pool in which ship owners

with vessels of similar sizes and quality participate

  • Spreading information (VL Database, TI Pool App)

Source: Clarkson’s – Total 680 VLCC ships @ 6 Sept 2016 Source: Company reports

Red indicates Captive or Sovereign fleet Blue indicates fleet in stock listed companies

VLCC Chartering Undertaking Leadership Role

Differentiate spot players vs industrial players

SI ZE I S CRI TI CAL TO I MPROVE MARKET KNOW LEDGE BARRI ER TO ENTRY – I NFORMATI ON

Heidm ar – VLCC Seaw olf

11

Navig8 – VL8

39

China VLCC

32

1 Ship Owner, 37 Vessels 2 Ship Owner, 52 3 Ship Owner, 27 10 – 15 Ship Owner, 103 COSCO Group, 32 4 – 10 Ship Owner, 168 SK Holdings, 18 Nippon YK, 19 DHT Group , 19 Angelicoussis Group, 31 Euronav NV , 31 Bahri, 36 MOL, 32 China Merchants Grp, 37 NIOC, 38

Top 1 0 Ow ners Control 4 3 %

  • f Global

VLCC Fleet

55 37 18

Small owners are data deficient (284 VLCCs)

22

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SLIDE 23

Capital allocation strategy

CAPI TAL ALLOCATI ON

Capex Liquidity reserve M&A criteria – balance sheet M&A – operational Shareholder Focus

  • USD 169m for 2 VLCC
  • Approximately USD 20 million

maintenance capex (dry-docks)

  • TWO years of operational liquidity

at all times

  • Maintain strong banking

relationships

  • Will never issue

non-accretive new equity

  • Additional vessels

must on pro-forma basis either match

  • r reduce break

even costs Yield or Grow th – w hy not both? 25 VLCC acquired in last 30 months 80% of annual P&L returned to shareholders since January 2015*

2 3

Strong balance sheet Leverage

  • Maintain strong balance sheet

through cycle

  • Target 30% to 50% leverage

according to where we are in the cycle

1

23

* See Distribution policy on Euronav w ebsite w w w .euronav.com

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SLIDE 24

Section 4

Supplemental Materials

22

24

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SLIDE 25

Appendix

MOST TANKER OW NERS HEAVI LY EXPOSED TO OTHER SHI PPI NG CURRENT I RANI AN VLCC FLEET USAGE – NEUTRAL I MPACT

Source Clarksons

ORDER BOOK AS % OF FLEET – MANAGEABLE

Source Clarksons

LNG 35% Containers 32% Dry bulk 33% 10 20 30 40 50 60 VLCC Suezmax

25

200 400 600 800 1000 1-5 VLCCs 5-9 VLCCs 10-14 VLCCs 15-19 VLCCs 20+ + VLCCs Container Dry Bulk Product Aframax Suezmax

Source EIA, September 2015

1 7 % 1 6 %

OPEC QUOTAS? OPEC HAS NEVER COMPLI ED W I TH QUOTAS

Source Clarksons

I n Service Long Term Storage Repairs/ Laid up 2013 7 2009 1 2009 1 2012 5 2008 4 2003 1 2009 1 2007 1 1999 1 2008 2 2004 2 2003 2 2003 2 1999 1 2002 3 1996 2 1996 2 Total 2 0 Total 1 5 Total 3

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SLIDE 26

Appendix

CURRENT US OI L EXPORTS – SMALL BASE BUT GROW I NG

26

Source US DoE Statistics Source Morgan Stanley 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2014 2015 2016

GLOBAL REFI NERY BUI LD OUT UNDERPI NS DEMAND GROW TH

1383 1303 1431 6582

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019+ + E

kbd

FSU Middle East Asia/ Pacific Africa Latin America N Am + EU

$43,372 $40,048 $37,962 $32,615 $35,652 $36,851 $35,887 $29,567 $31,114 $36,315 $45,944 $51,236

$25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 Jan Feb Mrt Apr Mei Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec

Q4 SEASONAL PEAK CAN BE EXTREME – AVERAGE VLCC RATE 1 9 9 0 -2 0 1 6

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Low price, high oil resource Low oil price / ref case High oil resource

Crude export scenarios MEDI UM & LONG TERM EXPECT US EXPORTS TO GROW TO C 2 M BPD ( EI A)

Source Clarksons Source Barclays

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SLIDE 27

Euronav - Most Liquid VLCC/ Suezmax Player

Source Bloomberg based on average Exchange volumes over past 12 months (EURN US 870k + EURN BB 540k per day) to Sept 9 2016

LI QUI DI TY GI VES SHAREHOLDERS OPTI ONALI TY

More Trading Hours

Euronext Brussels: 9 a.m. – 5. 30 p.m. (CET) NYSE: 9.30 a.m. – 4 p.m. (EST)

Average daily volume shares = 1 .4 1 m shares per day Ticker Symbol: EURN Average daily volume USD = USD 1 6 m per day TOTAL Velocity = 3 4 0 % * Free float = 8 5 %

* Calculation method = daily volume x trading days / free float

TOTAL TRADED VALUE OF EURONAV US AND BB SHARES ( SAME SHARE) - EURN US EQUI TY & EURN BB EQUI TY 27

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% EURN US EURN BB

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SLIDE 28

28

7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5

Knots per hour VLCC Suezmax

Appendix – Average Speeds VLCC & Suezmax (total voyage)

Source Bloomberg Energy

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SLIDE 29

Appendix - China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) – some facts

29

Source Euronav * assume 6% pa growth

1

2009 - China stated objective to comply with IEA best practice on SPR

2

IEA guidance – SPR = 90 days of previous years net oil imports; SPR therefore not a static number nor a luxury

3

New acronym CPR (Commercial Petroleum Reserve)

4

June 2016 China Govt able to lease commercial capacity = 404m bbls with 240m bbls in use; so 160m capacity added

5

Sept 2016 Chinese Govt stated SPR in “early” 2016 = 234m bbls

6

Likely to have added c 110-160m bbls during 2016 – so approaching SPR capacity but legislation changes increased by 160m bbls

7

Total SPR capacity c 350m bbls + 160m CPR = 510m bbls total strategic capacity v c 400m bbls currently stored

8

Further SPR & CPR capacity additions expected 2017- 2020

I m ports ( m bpd) * Days ( cover) SPR target ( m bbls) 2016 8.0 90 2017 8.5 90 720 2018 9.0 90 763 2019 9.5 90 809 2020 10.1 90 858

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SLIDE 30

Appendix - Commercial Crude Inventory– an issue but manageable

30

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

Thousands

Pacific Europe U.S.

Euronav view

  • 2 0 0 m barrels “excess” of crude 2 0 0 m barrels / 2 m VLCC capacity = 1 0 0 cargoes
  • 1 0 0 cargoes / 4 -5 voyages* = 2 0 -2 5 VLCC

= W ORST CASE = 2 0 -2 5 VLCCs displaced as “excess” is draw n dow n = BEST CASE = Brent / W TI differential drives inventory exported requiring VLCC

CRUDE I NVENTORY GLOBAL “EXCESS” 2 0 0 M BBLS – PRI MARI LY STORED I N USA & EUROPE AND NOT W HERE I NCREMENTAL DEMAND GROW TH LOCATED I N FAR EAST

Source IEA * Average number of VLCC voyages per annum = 4.5

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SLIDE 31

54 62 49 30 24 23 29 16 45 48 2

  • 48
  • 25
  • 13
  • 22
  • 11
  • 1
  • 5
  • 8
  • 7
  • 8
  • 16
  • 8
  • 10
  • 25
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Additions Forecast Additions Scrapped Must be scrapped (over 22,5 years old) Could be scrapped (≥20 years old) depending on market levels

Net:4 0 Net:2 2 Net:3 7 Net:4 1 Net:1 3 Net:6 Net:8 Net:3 7 Net:3 6 Net:-6 56

VLCC Order Book Dynamics

VLCC – ADDI TI ONS, SCRAPPI NG, REMOVALS  I MPLI ED BUFFER

Supply of Vessels

4

BASE CASE

Source Clarksons

31

Net: 2 4 Net: 2 9 Net: 3 1 Net: -3 1

NET POTENTI AL

32 65 29 46 56

Scheduled deliveries

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SLIDE 32

38 43 45 27 8 10 12 15 45 18

  • 19
  • 7
  • 20
  • 7
  • 9
  • 3
  • 6
  • 7
  • 11
  • 5
  • 8
  • 17
  • 15
  • 45
  • 35
  • 25
  • 15
  • 5

5 15 25 35 45 55 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Additions Forecast Additions Scrapped Must be scrapped (over 22.5 years old) Could be scrapped (≥20 years old) depending on market levels

Q1= 3 Q2= 4 Q3= 2 Q4= 1

Net:2 0 Net:-1 Net:1 0 Net:2 4 Net:1 1 Net:3 9 Net:2 5 Net:3 6 Net:1 9 Net:-1 1

NET POTENTI AL

Suezmax Order Book Dynamics

SUEZMAX – ADDI TI ONS, SCRAPPI NG, REMOVALS  I MPLI ED BUFFER

Supply of Vessels

4

BASE CASE

Source Clarksons

32

Net: 1 9 Net: 3 1 Net: -6 Net: -2 6 29 39 15 61 63 63

Scheduled deliveries