INVESTOR PRESENTATION 9M AND 3Q 2019 28 November 2019 DISCLAIMER - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
INVESTOR PRESENTATION 9M AND 3Q 2019 28 November 2019 DISCLAIMER - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
INVESTOR PRESENTATION 9M AND 3Q 2019 28 November 2019 DISCLAIMER This presentation (hereinafter the Presentation) of the Alliance Oil Company (hereinafter the AOC) was prepared exclusively for the information purposes in order
This presentation (hereinafter – the “Presentation”) of the Alliance Oil Company (hereinafter – the “AOC”) was prepared exclusively for the information purposes in order to improve the transparency of disclosure of relevant information and materials
- f AOC and establish a continuous dialogue with investors.
The data contained in this Presentation constitutes the confidential information of the AOC group of companies and shall not be disclosed or transmitted to any third parties without the prior written consent of the disclosing party. The information contained in this Presentation was prepared and provided by the AOC structural departments. These data can be changed with the course of time and are subject to regular update and amendment. This presentation is not an offer or solicitation of an offer and does not cause creation of any rights or obligations from the AOC and/or potential partners to carry out transactions or to enter into negotiations on cooperation. The information provided in this Presentation is not an offer or proposition to conclude an agreement. AOC makes no warranty in respect of the accuracy or reliability of the information contained in the Presentation and accepts no liability for any losses suffered by third parties arising from inaccuracy or unreliability of such information as well as for other negative effects. 2
DISCLAIMER
On 1 June 2017 the Office of Foreign Assets Control of U.S. Department of the Treasury (“OFAC”) included AO Nezavisimaya Neftegazovaya Kompaniya and AO NNK-Primornefteproduct, subsidiaries of the Group, to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons list (“SDN List”). Sanctions were imposed pursuant to the US President Executive Order No. 13722 of 15 March 2016, concerning blocking the property of the Government of North Korea and the Workers’ party of Korea, and prohibiting certain transactions with North Korea. The Group cooperates with OFAC on all arising matters. The Group has received a confirmation from The Bank of New York Mellon of the current absence of obstacles for the provision of services and payments settlement under the Group’s existing Eurobonds. As of now there are no further developments that the Group is able to report. Information will be updated accordingly. 3
Operating Environment
9M 2019 Market Environment
4
Indicator 9M 2019 average 9M 2018 average % Brent, USD/bbl 64.65 72.08
- 10%
Exchange rate, USD/RUB 65.08 61.44 +6% Indicator 9M 2019 average 9M 2018 average % Naphtha, USD/bbl 55.89 68.97
- 19%
Diesel fuel, USD/bbl 77.53 84.57
- 8%
Fuel oil, USD/bbl 60.15 62.35
- 4%
USD/bbl RUB/USD
Crude oil prices and exchange rates Oil products prices
USD/bbl 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Brent Exchange rate 20 40 60 80 100 120 Naphtha Diesel Fuel (Gasoil 500 ppm) Fuel Oil (HSFO 180)
5
HIGHLIGHTS FOR 9M 2019 AND 3Q 2019
Indicator 9M 2019 9M 2018 3Q 2019 3Q 2018 Comments
Financial Results
Revenue, MUSD
2,716 2,809 957 1,037
9M/9M stable revenue effected by RUB weakening. 3Q/3Q decrease primarily due to lower crude oil and oil products (export and bunkering) prices
EBITDA, MUSD
291 314 123 118
9M/9M decrease - due to lower crude oil prices and increased MET (Upstream). 3Q/3Q increase – due to lower cost of crude oil purchased for refining and income on reverse excise tax (Downstream)
Net Result, MUSD
69 (217) 4 (14)
Net result improved due to FX gains
Adjusted Result1, MUSD
(5) 60 22 33
Decreased profitability of Upstream (9M/9M and 3Q/3Q)
Operational Results
Production, mboe
12.2 11.9 4.1 4.0
Stable volumes
Refining volumes, mbbl
25.8 27.0 9.9 10.0
9M/9M decrease due to planned major maintenance works at the Khabarovsk Refinery in 2Q 2019
Throughput, mbbl
25.0 26.5 9.7 9.7
9M/9M decrease due to planned major maintenance works at the Khabarovsk Refinery in 2Q 2019
1 Adjusted Result is defined as the Group’s Net Result adjusted for non-cash items such as foreign currency exchange gain/(loss),
modification loss on loans, allowance for deferred tax assets and other significant one-off items in profit or loss.
9M 2019 production:
3.8 mboe (31%)1
3Q 2019 production:
1.3 mboe (32%) Timano-Pechora
9M 2019 production:
2.5 mboe (21%)
3Q 2019 production:
0.9 mboe (21%) Tomsk
UPSTREAM OPERATIONS Crude Oil and Gas Reserves and Production
6
Notes: (1) Percentage in consolidated Alliance Oil Company production. (2) As per DeGolyer & MacNaughton as of 31 December 2018.
Alliance Oil Company, consolidated
9M 2019 production:
5.9 mboe (48%)
3Q 2019 production:
1.9 mboe (47%) Volga-Urals and Kazakhstan
2P oil reserves: 526.9 mboe2 2P gas reserves: 41.7 mboe 9M 2019 production: 12.2 mboe (average daily: 44,669 boepd) 3Q 2019 production: 4.1 mboe (average daily: 44,436 boepd)
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UPSTREAM OPERATIONS Crude Oil and Gas Production
Hydrocarbon Production, mboe Hydrocarbon Production, boepd
Implemented 95 well interventions, launched 51 new wells for 9M 2019 Due to successful interventions oil production has stabilized. Previous decrease in production explained by minimal capital expenditures in 2016-2017 due to negative macro parameters The Group has USD 79 mln of capital commitments for Upstream segment capital construction
42 971 44 741 44 480 45 091 44 436 40 000 42 000 44 000 46 000 48 000 50 000
3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 4,0 4,1 4,0 4,1 4,1
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5
3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019
UPSTREAM OPERATIONS Crude Oil Sales
Crude Oil Sales, mbbl
8
Increase due to trading in crude oil purchased from third parties (9M/9M) and higher production volumes (9M/9M and 3Q/3Q)
5,2 5,2 5,3 6,1 3,9 5,6
4 8 12 16 20
9M 2018 9M 2019
Export Domestic Produced Domestic Re-sold
14,4 16,9 1,7 1,7 1,8 2,1 1,8 1,6
5,3 5,4 2 4 6
3Q 2018 3Q 2019
Export Domestic Produced Domestic Re-sold
UPSTREAM OPERATIONS Crude Oil Netbacks
Crude Oil Netback Prices, USD/bbl
9
Notes: The netback prices are calculated by deducting VAT, railway and pipeline transportation costs (for Russian domestic sales) or transportation, export duty, brokers’ commission and certain other costs (for export sales).
Netbacks in all destinations affected by crude oil quotes and tax maneuver effective since Q1 2019
52,8 47,5 50,1 47,0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 9M 2018 9M 2019 Export Domestic 53,0 46,7 46,3 51,2 45,0 52,6 43,6 46,5 50,5 44,0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 Export Domestic
Notes: The net prices are calculated by deducting VAT.
10
UPSTREAM OPERATIONS Gas Sales and Price
Gas and Gas Liquids Sales, kboe Gas and Gas Liquids Prices, USD/boe
Gas liquids prices affected by crude oil quotes
916 633 148 93 200 400 600 800 1 000 9M 2018 9M 2019 Sold volume of gas, kboe Sold volume of gas liqids, kboe 279 195 47 28 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 3Q 2018 3Q 2019 Sold volume of gas, kboe Sold volume of gas liqids, kboe 7,9 7,7 48,0 48,8 10 20 30 40 50 60
9M 2018 9M 2019
Gas net price, USD/boe Gas Liquids net price, USD/boe
7,5 7,5 7,5 7,7 7,8 56,5 54,2 44,4 53,6 48,6 10 20 30 40 50 60
3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019
UPSTREAM OPERATIONS Crude Oil and Gas Sales
Revenue from Sales of Crude Oil, Gas and Gas Liquids, MUSD
11
9M/9M revenue increased due to trading in crude oil purchased from third parties and higher production
- volumes. 3Q/3Q revenue decreased due to lower crude oil prices
297 267 272 292 212 274
781 833 200 400 600 800 1 000
9M 2018 9M 2019
Export Domestic Produced Domestic Re-sold
98 84 95 95 99 73
292 252 50 100 150 200 250 300
3Q 2018 3Q 2019
Export Domestic Produced Domestic Re-sold
Retail gas stations: 17
The Republic of Buryatia Refining volumes: 9M 2019: 94,412 bopd (9M 2018: 99,071 bopd) 3Q 2019: 107,933 bopd (3Q 2018: 108,230 bopd) Throughput: 9M 2019: 25.0 mbbl (9M 2018: 26.5 mbbl) 3Q 2019: 9.7 mbbl (3Q 2018: 9.7 mbbl) Khabarovsk Oil Refinery
DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS Assets and Refining volumes
12
Retail gas stations: 18 Marine terminals: 1 Jet fuel depot: 1
Kamchatka region
Operating retail gas stations: 293 Operating oil depots: 12 Marine terminals: 3 Jet fuel depot: 1 Railway tankers: 1,449
TOTAL
Retail gas stations: 258 Operating oil depots: 12 Marine terminals: 2 Railway tankers: 1,449
Far East: Amur, Primor and Khabarovsk regions
DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS Khabarovsk Oil Refinery
Oil Products Breakdown in 9M 2019, % Refining volumes, bopd Refining throughput, mbbl Light oil products yield,%
13
108 230 107 933 99 071 94 412
3Q 2018 3Q 2019 9M 2018 9M 2019
9,7 9,7 26,5 25,0
3Q 2018 3Q 2019 9M 2018 9M 2019
60,9% 62,0% 62,5% 59,2%
3Q 2018 3Q 2019 9M 2018 9M 2019
39% 20% 19% 18% 4%
Fuel oil Marine fuel Gasoline Diesel fuel Others
DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS Oil Products Sales
Oil Products Sales, mbbl
14
Increase in retail volumes due to strong demand Decrease in sales volumes 9M/9M due to planned major maintenance works at the Khabarovsk Refinery during 2Q 2019 The Group resumed bunkering sales in 3Q 2018 (terminated in 3Q 2017)
1,2 1,5 1,6 3,5 4,7 2,4 2,2 2,3
9,7 9,7 2 4 6 8 10 12
3Q 2018 3Q 2019
Export Bunkering Wholesale Retail
3,7 4,5
1,6 9,8
15,5 5,7 6,0 6,6
26,8 26,5 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32
9M 2018 9M 2019
Export Bunkering Wholesale Retail
15
DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS Oil Products Prices
Oil Products Net Prices, USD/bbl
Export and bunkering prices fluctuated roughly in line with crude oil prices The Group resumed bunkering sales in 3Q 2018 (terminated in 3Q 2017)
69 60 50 44 68 91 98 97 20 40 60 80 100 120
9M 2018 9M 2019
Export Bunkering Wholesale Retail
74 64 59 62 60 50 54 44 45 44 74 73 88 89 94 94 93 95 99 98 20 40 60 80 100 120
3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019
Export Bunkering Wholesale Retail
DOWNSTREAM OPERATIONS Oil Products Sales
Revenue from sales of oil products, MUSD
16
Decrease 9M/9M primarily due to RUB weakening Decrease 3Q/3Q due lower export and bunkering prices
259 270 80 431 1 054 513 589 638
1 982 1 852 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 2 000 2 200
9M 2018 9M 2019
Export Bunkering Wholesale Retail
91 91 80 152 352 229 208 224
730 695 200 400 600 800
3Q 2018 3Q 2019
Export Bunkering Wholesale Retail
FINANCIALS
17
Profit or loss, MUSD
Financial position, MUSD
Cash flows, MUSD
Macro
9M 2019 9M 2018 3Q 2019 3Q 2018
RUB/USD exchange rate, average 65.08 61.44 64.57 65.53 Brent, average 64.65 72.08 61.94 75.32 Revenue 2,716 2,809 957 1,037 FХ gain/(loss) from non-financing activities 72 (57) (14) (14) Operating income 219 108 59 57 EBITDA 291 314 123 118 EBITDA Margin 11% 11% 13% 11% FХ gain/(loss) from financing activities 10 (78)
- (28)
Profit/(Loss) for the period 69 (217) 4 (14) Adjusted Result (5) 60 22 33 Total assets 3,744 3,519 3,744 3,519 Cash and cash equivalents 187 163 187 163 Total debt 1,931 1,943 1,931 1,943 Total cash generated from operating activities 305 282 208 160 Total cash used in investing activities (180) (142) (80) (46) Total cash used in financing activities (75) (148) (48) (83)
Revenue Breakdown, MUSD
18
FINANCIALS Segment Performance
Notes: Segment revenue is based on total sold volumes including external and intra-group. Segment revenue excludes other income.
Upstream segment revenue increased 9M/9M primarily due to trading in crude oil purchased from third parties and higher production volumes. 3Q/3Q revenue decreased due to lower crude oil prices Downstream segment revenue decreased primarily due to RUB weakening (9M/9M) and lower export and bunkering prices (3Q/3Q)
781 833 1 982 1 852 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
9M 2018 9M 2019
Upstream Downstream
292 252 730 695 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000 1 100
3Q 2018 3Q 2019
Upstream Downstream
FINANCIALS Segment Performance
EBITDA Distribution, MUSD
Notes: EBITDA for Upstream and Downstream segments is based on IFRS financial information. Segment EBITDA is based on total sold volumes including external and intra-group.
19
EBITDA, USD/bbl
Upstream segment EBITDA:
- lower crude oil prices, increased mineral extraction tax and higher share of trading transactions
with lower margin in the structure of crude oil sales (in respect of EBITDA per bbl) resulted in decreased EBITDA 9M/9M
- decrease 3Q/3Q primarily due to lower crude oil prices
Downstream segment EBITDA:
- income on reverse excise tax and lower cost of crude oil purchased for refining resulted in
increased EBITDA both 9M/9M and 3Q/3Q
- 1
241 201 72 61 121 146 59 81
40 80 120 160 200 240 280
9M 2018 9M 2019 3Q 2018 3Q 2019
Upstream Downstream 15,4 11,4 12,8 10,9 4,5 5,5 6,0 8,4
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 22,0
9M 2018 9M 2019 3Q 2018 3Q 2019
Upstream Downstream
FINANCIALS Upstream Economics
20
Notes: (1) Based on total upstream sold volume including external and intra-group; (2) Selling, administrative and other income/expenses, include transportation tariffs and
- ther selling expenses, administrative expenses and other operating income/expense.
Crude oil economics negatively affected by lower netbacks (9M/9M and 3Q/3Q) and increased mineral extraction tax (9M/9M)
Crude Oil Economics, USD/bbl1 9M 2019 9M 2018 3Q 2019 3Q 2018 Revenue
48.72 52.50 45.97 53.44
Production Costs
(5.43) (5.94) (5.45) (4.98)
Production and Other Taxes
(23.62) (22.23) (22.65) (26.55)
SG&A and Other2
(2.30) (2.86) (2.27) (3.26)
EBITDA
17.37 21.47 15.60 18.65
Gas and Gas Liquids Economics, USD/boe 9M 2019 9M 2018 3Q 2019 3Q 2018 Revenue
12.97 13.50 12.92 14.51
Production Costs
(3.57) (2.65) (3.88) (3.06)
Production and Other Taxes
(3.75) (3.60) (3.78) (3.60)
SG&A and Other
(0.07) (0.08) (0.23) (0.07)
EBITDA
5.58 7.17 5.03 7.78
Crude Oil (resale) Economics, USD/bbl 9M 2019 9M 2018 3Q 2019 3Q 2018 Revenue
48.76 53.78 46.26 55.85
Cost of purchased oil
(48.47) (52.24) (45.99) (53.59)
EBITDA
0.29 1.54 0.27 2.26
FINANCIALS Downstream Economics
Notes: (1) Based on total downstream sold volume including external and intra-group; (2) Selling, administrative and other income/expenses, include transportation tariffs and other selling expenses, administrative expenses and other operating income/expense.
21
Downstream economics 9M/9M and 3Q/3Q positively affected by income
- n reverse excise tax and lower cost of crude oil purchased for refining
Downstream Economics, USD/bbl1 9M 2019 9M 2018 3Q 2019 3Q 2018 Revenue
69.00 73.86 71.71 74.78
Refining
(3.45) (3.06) (3.25) (2.70)
Crude Oil Transportation
(3.77) (4.04) (4.21) (3.90)
Cost of Crude Oil
(42.22) (46.54) (43.68) (48.75)
Excise and Other Taxes
(2.09) (7.40) (2.27) (5.89)
Oil Products Purchased for Resale
(5.85) (2.43) (3.79) (1.97)
SG&A and Other2
(6.17) (5.87) (6.11) (5.56)
EBITDA
5.45 4.52 8.40 6.01
FINANCIALS Debt Portfolio
Cash on balance MUSD 187 Leverage dynamics
22
Total debt of MUSD 1,9313 Net debt of MUSD 1,744 Net debt to EBITDA of 5.11:
- restriction on additional loans and
borrowing Loans and borrowings Maturity Profile1, MUSD Loans and borrowings by currency as of 30 September 2019, MUSD2
Notes: (1) Future cash flows for the repayment of loan principal. (2) Including interest accrued and net of unamortized issue costs. (3) Including financing component of long-term advances received and lease liabilities.
35 2% 1 648 98%
Secured debt Unsecured debt 406 644 238 303 1004 192 212 251 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Within one year Within second year Within years three and four Five years and more As at 31 December 2018 As at 30 September 2019 1 943 1 699 1 854 1 919 1 931 1 780 1 566 1 578 1 812 1 744 4,25 4,35 3,82 5,38 5,11 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 7,00 1 000 1 100 1 200 1 300 1 400 1 500 1 600 1 700 1 800 1 900 2 000
3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019
Total debt, MUSD Net debt, MUSD Net debt/EBITDA
1 164 69% 519 31%
RUB bonds and bank loans USD Eurobonds and trade financing
23
FINANCIALS Capital Expenditures
Historical CAPEX1, MUSD
Notes: (1) CAPEX excluding financial costs capitalized and paid
High level of CAPEX in 2014 related to the reconstruction of the Khabarovsk Refinery, which is completed. Any future CAPEX will be attributable to sustaining of production in both segments
112 73 78 63 147 112 245 60 30 33 24 21
- 100
200 300 400 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9M 2019 Upstream Downstream 38 46 46 35 31 5 7 4 7 10
- 10
20 30 40 50 60 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 Upstream Downstream