November 1, 2019
Investor Meetings
June 2020
Investor Meetings June 2020 Contact Information and Safe Harbor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
November 1, 2019 Investor Meetings June 2020 Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement Investor Relations Contact Information Lisa Goodman Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services U.S. 1-505-241-2160
November 1, 2019
June 2020
Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement
2 Investor Relations Contact Information Lisa Goodman Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services U.S. 1-505-241-2160 Lisa.Goodman@pnmresources.com
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 Statements made in this presentation for PNM Resources, Inc. (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico (“PNM”) and Texas-New Mexico Power Company (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) that relate to future events or expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
Company assumes no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, the Company cautions readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. The Company’s business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond its control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward-looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings and the information filed on the Company’s Forms 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein. Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings,
please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm.
COVID-19 Scenario Analysis: Current Status
4
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Duration / Economic Conditions (Margin Impact) Up to 60 day-impact (through May) with closure of non- essential businesses, restrictions lifted by end of May 60 - 120 day-impact (through July), with closure of non- essential businesses, restrictions lifted beginning of August >120 day-impact, duration of 4-6 months before recovery begins (continues through the end of 2020) Workforce Disruption (Capital Impact) No significant disruption to critical workforce; remaining workforce able to work remotely Up to 15% disruption for a sustained period resulting from absenteeism Up to 40% disruption for a sustained period resulting from absenteeism Supply Chain Disruption (Capital Impact) No material supply chain issues, adequate near-term supply of capital equipment on-site or available Disruption in supply chain for specific capital equipment results in 1–2 month delay on certain projects; no issues with maintenance capital necessary to maintain reliable service Major disruption in supply chain delays significant capital projects; prioritization of capital equipment to meet most essential reliability projects
monthly impacts will continue to be evaluated during phased re-openings
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 2020 Guidance Projection 2019
COVID-19 Load Impacts
5
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
May trends are in line with planning assumptions, impacts of phased state re-openings to be evaluated in June
PNM Stage 1 and 2 load projections
TNMP Demand- Based TNMP Volumetric PNM Volumes
TNMP Stage 1 and 2 load projections
2020 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Affirmed
6
March
April May June July August September Q4
Based on strong May weather impacts, Stage 2 can be managed within guidance
Stage 1: Manage within Guidance Stage 3: Outside
Reduced load impacts were offset by warmer than normal May temperatures at PNM, lower interest and financing costs, lower O&M Expected load impacts can be offset by phased-in cost contingency plans, regulatory filings, weather Reassess guidance: expected load impacts cannot be managed within the guidance range
Note: Refer to Slide 45 for EPS sensitivities of load impacts under planning assumptions
Regulatory Updates
7
PNM Decoupling Filing
Regulatory Disincentives on May 28, 2020
commercial customers
leading to a consistent under-recovery
TNMP DCOS Filing
be implemented September 1, 2020
PNM Resources Overview
9
Energy holding company based in Albuquerque, New Mexico with two fully regulated electric utility subsidiaries NYSE: PNM $3.2B market cap
New Mexico focused on clean energy transformation
distribution lines
the ERCOT market in Texas
distribution lines
Service Territories and Generation Resources
Key Investment Themes
10
Transformation of PNM generation portfolio Reliably support growth and integration
Transparent growth plan driven by rate base investment
Create shareholder value through a clean and bright energy future Clean Energy Focus Critical Electricity Infrastructure Strong Financial Profile
Focused on Sustainability
11
Environment
Eliminating emissions
Paris Climate Agreement and is five years ahead of state mandate
will also eliminate mercury, NOx, SOx and other pollutants Saving freshwater
from 2007 to 2018
cool Palo Verde plant Investing and supporting renewables
solar, wind and geothermal
expansion for 2020
renewables and battery storage
Social
Fostering tribal relationships
tribes in New Mexico
PNM Navajo Nation Workforce Training Scholarship Program
Navajo to provide residential electrification Promoting employee diversity
minorities and 37% were women
27% female, 8% veterans Engaging and retaining our workers
time and part-time employees
Governance
Executing strong governance
finance, environment, labor and human resources, and cybersecurity
Strategic Direction
12
and be 100% emissions-free by 2040
integration of renewable generation and battery storage
customer demand across high-growth service territory
Strong Financial Profile
13
Rate Base Growth Earnings Growth Dividend Growth Liquidity
support critical infrastructure and reliability projects
balanced with additional opportunities for PNM T&D
adaptable in response to changing conditions
2020 forward offering
finance business needs
$275 $306 $322 $345 $337 $270 $342 $348 $211 $174 $182 $202 $128 $94 $82 $77 $68 $109 $268 $48 $177 $72
$27 $27 $21 $21 $25
2020 2021 2022 2023
(in millions)
TNMP PNM T&D PV Lease Purchases/Other Replacement Power PNM Existing Generation PNM Transmission Expansion SJGS Replacement Power 50% NMRD Renewable Additions Business Technology Services/General Services Depreciation
$771 $993 $853 $695
14
2020 – 2023 Investment Plan
(1) Western Spirit acquisition of $285M reflects assumed purchase price of $360M, net of $75M customer funding (2) For Palo Verde leases that expire in 2023, capex assumes either the purchase of the leases or replacement of the power through new resources (3) Depreciation does not include amounts associated with NMRD (3) (1)
Targeted 2019-2023 Rate Base CAGR (2019 base): Total 8.9% / PNM 6.0% / TNMP 15.9%
(2)
$3.3B investment plan results in 8.9% rate base growth
$35M of incremental PNM T&D added in 2020 to support new customer additions
2020 - 2023 Potential Earnings Power
15
This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2021 - 2023 earnings guidance. Refer to Slide 54 for additional details and disclosures.
Earnings Growth Target 5%-6%
Incorporates impact of January 2020 forward equity offering dilution beginning 2021
Note: 5-6% targeted earnings growth CAGR measured from 2019 Ongoing EPS of $2.16. Note: Number of shares outstanding increases from 80M to 86M in December 2020 January forward equity offering (1) Assumes 2022 mid-year implementation of San Juan Replacement (2) Reflects debt costs associated with $250M-$300M mandatory convertibles issued in the second half of 2021 that convert in 2024
Allowed Return / Equity Ratio
2020 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint 2021 Earnings Potential 2022 Earnings Potential 2023 Earnings Potential Avg Rate Base Return EPS Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS PNM Retail
9.575% / 50% $2.5 B 9.5% $1.47 $2.5 B $1.41 $2.4 B $1.37 $2.4 B $1.38
San Juan Replacement(1)
9.575% / 50% $150 M $0.08 $280 M $0.16
PNM Renewables
9.575% / 50% $150 M 9.575% $0.09 $145 M $0.08 $140 M $0.08 $130 M $0.06
PNM FERC
10% / ~50% $340 M 7.5% $0.15 $530 M $0.25-$0.28 $740 M $0.35-$0.39 $780 M $0.36-$0.41
Items not in Rates
($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01)
Total PNM
$3.0 B $1.70 $3.2 B $1.71-$1.76 $3.5 B $1.85-$1.91 $3.6 B $1.93-$2.00
TNMP
9.65% / 45% $1.3 B 9.65% $0.73 $1.5 B $0.79 $1.6 B $0.83 $1.9 B $0.95
Corporate/Other
($0.22) ($0.13)-($0.11) ($0.11)-($0.09) ($0.15)-($0.13)
Equity Financing Plans(2)
($0.06)-($0.01) ($0.11)-($0.09) ($0.11)-($0.09) Total PNM Resources $4.3 B $2.21 $4.7 B $2.31 - $2.43 $5.1 B $2.46 - $2.56 $5.6 B $2.62 - $2.73
$1.94 $2.00 $2.16 $2.21 $2.37 $2.51 $2.68 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Actual Ongoing EPS Midpoint Earnings Guidance/Potential Indicated Annual Dividend
$0.97 Dec ‘16 $1.06 Dec ‘17 $1.16 Dec ‘18 $1.23 Dec ‘19
$1.29- $1.30 $1.36- $1.38 $1.42- $1.46
Dividend Growth
16
middle of a 50% - 60% payout ratio range
Dividend Growth to Mirror Earnings Growth at 5%-6%
56% payout
Liquidity and Debt Maturity Outlook
17 PNM Resources FFO-to-Debt is maintained within Moody’s Baa investment grade target range of 13% to 22%
(1) Senior unsecured rating (2) Senior secured rating
$496 $57 $1,203 $843 $140 $450 2020 2021 2022 2023 and Beyond
Long-term Debt Maturities
(in millions)
PNM TNMP Corporate
addressed its 2020 debt maturities
2021 to fund Western Spirit acquisition and strengthen credit metrics
~$1.0 billion and $361 million securitization bonds
$1B available liquidity Maintain appropriate credit metrics and investment grade ratings Target regulatory capital structures at PNM and TNMP
Moody’s Rating/Outlook S&P Rating/Outlook PNM Resources Baa3(1) / Stable BBB-(1) / Stable PNM Baa2(1) / Stable BBB(1) / Stable TNMP A1(2) / Stable A(2) / Stable
Key Takeaways
18
Providing environmentally responsible, affordable and reliable electricity to key markets in New Mexico and growing markets in Texas Executing clear growth strategy to deliver 5%-6% earnings and dividend growth Maintaining commitment to strong ESG practices, including transitioning away from coal, being emissions-free by 2040 and shifting towards additional low-cost renewables and flexible resources
PNM Load and Economic Development
20
Year-over Year- Growth Q1 2020 2019 2018 Total Retail Load 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% PNM Avg. Consumers 0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Load growth is weather normalized and leap year adjusted
New Mexico Economic Development
demonstrates the continued focus of economic development efforts in New Mexico
Retail Load Growth
by growing impacts of energy efficiency
the under-recovery of fixed costs associated with reduced usage
New Mexico Energy Policy: Energy Transition Act
21
Nuclear 30%
Senate Bill 489 (Energy Transition Act): passed in 2019 legislative session and signed by New Mexico Governor Lujan Grisham; effective June 14, 2019
reduces customer bills
and the communities impacted by retirement of coal-fired generating facilities
50% Renewables
80% Renewables
40% Renewables
100% Carbon-Free 2045 2040
2030 2025
7,228 4,315 1,850 755 2015 2020 2025 2035 2040
Carbon- free goal 40% reduction 90% reduction
Executing the Energy Transition Act
22
Nuclear 30%
Our Goal: Transform PNM Generation to 100% Carbon-Free by 2040
Step 1: Exit Coal Generation by 2031
Retirement of Units 1 and 4 in 2022 (562 MWs)
agreements in 2031 (200 MWs)
Step 2: Eliminate emissions from natural gas generation by 2040
free capacity resources such as battery storage and pumped storage by 2040
Step 3: Actively pursue the development of carbon-free replacement power alternatives
term natural gas peaking units to facilitate transition to emissions-free
983 762 200 2015 2020 2025 2031
80% reduction Coal- free 22% reduction
Reduction of MW Coal Capacity
battery, pumped hydro, emissions-free combustion turbines through hydrogen or other clean fuels, emerging technologies
Reduction of Carbon Emissions
(CO2 short-tons, in thousands)
74% reduction
PNM-owned facilities, as reported to EPA
Transform PNM Generation Portfolio
23
San Juan abandonment, securitization and replacement power
l San Juan abandonment/
securitization unanimously approved on April 1, 2020
l San Juan replacement
power: Hearing Examiner recommended decision and NMPRC order by October 1, 2020
Developing plans to exit Four Corners
l 200 MW ownership l Contracts expire
2031, PNM looking to exit sooner
Evaluating decision to retain / replace Palo Verde leased capacity
l 104 MW expires 2023 l 10 MW expires 2024
Balance appropriate level of baseload resources to be emissions-free by 2040 and shift towards additional low-cost renewables and flexible resources
Third Party Resources PNM Owned Resources __________________ Total 410 MW ________________ Total 350 MW
San Juan Recommended Replacement Power Scenario Details
24
and third-party providers
does not exceed 5% of peak load and the capacity at each location is limited to 40 MW 280 MW Gas Peaking Units at San Juan $191M investment in-service June 2022 40 MW Storage $50M investment in-service June 2022 30 MW Storage $37M investment in-service June 2022 300 MW Solar PPA + 40 MW Storage ESA $20M transmission investment begins June 2022 50 MW Solar PPA + 20 MW Storage ESA begins Jan 2022
Note: All potential replacement power scenarios incorporated 140 MW wind energy PPA included in June 3, 2019 RPS Filing
Renewable and Battery Storage Portfolio
25
2019 2022
237 530 356 662
15 15
0.5
130.5 Solar Wind Geothermal Battery Storage
609 MW
2020 +50MW solar +140MW wind +166MW wind 2021 +50MW solar +50MW solar 2022 +350MW(1) solar +130MW(1) battery storage 157 MW Solar (Owned) 80 MW Solar (PPA) 356 MW Wind (PPA) 15 MW Geothermal (PPA) 0.5 MW Battery Storage (Owned) 207 MW Solar (Owned) 530 MW Solar (PPA) 662 MW Wind (PPA) 15 MW Geothermal (PPA) 70.5 MW Battery Storage (Owned) 60 MW Battery Storage (PPA)
1445 MW
(1) Pending approval as part of San Juan Generating Station recommended replacement power
PNM Renewable and Battery Storage Capacity
PNM Retail Transmission Opportunities
26
require additional T&D investment
2023-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2038 110 350 570 40 160 340 500 80 310 570 600 Solar Wind Battery Storage 120 580 1,260 1,670
Cumulative Capacity Additions 2023 – 2038 (MW)
Included in Recommended San Juan Replacement Scenario(1)
(1) Consolidated Application for Approvals for the abandonment, financing and resource replacement for San Juan
Generating Station, Phillips - Resource Planning Testimonial as of July 1, 2019
FERC Transmission Opportunities
27
Source: American Wind Energy Association, Oct. 2019
New Mexico ranks:
Wind Solar
Source: NREL
New Mexico’s abundant solar and wind resources also attract third-party development, increasing the demand for transmission capacity and creating rate base growth opportunities:
Source: WINDExchange.energy.gov, Q3 2019
in US wind capacity potential
Source: Nebraska Department of Environment & Energy Sun Index developed for NREL measuring direct sunlight received in each state, accounting for latitude and cloud cover
in US energy potential from solar power
transmission line: $285M in 2021
a higher growth rate than any other state in 2017 and currently has projects under construction or in advanced development that will more than double current installed capacity
development
NMPRC Commissioners and Districts
28
District Name Term Ends Party
District 1 Cynthia Hall 2020(1) Democrat District 2 Jefferson Byrd 2022(1) Republican District 3 Valerie Espinoza, Vice-Chairman 2020 Democrat District 4 Theresa Becenti-Aguilar, Chairman 2022(1) Democrat District 5 Stephen Fischmann 2022(1) Democrat
NMPRC Districts and PNM Service Areas
(1) Eligible for re-election to a second four-year term
2019 Legislative Update – Appointed vs Elected:
include a state constitutional amendment on the ballot in the next general election (2020) to move to a 3-member, appointed Commission
requirements for Commissioners
be for a two-year term ending in 2022; the terms for Commissioners in Districts 2, 4 and 5 already expire in 2022
PNM Regulatory Agenda
29
Upcoming activities:
Filing Action Timing Docket No.
PNM:
Decoupling Filing (Petition for Approval of Rate Adjustment Mechanism to Remove Regulatory Disincentives) Filed with the NMPRC on May 28, 2020 Pending 20-00121-UT Deferral of Incremental costs related to COVID-19 PNM and other utilities filed joint motion April 27, 2020 Pending 20-00069-UT Consolidated Application for San Juan Generating Station (Abandonment, Securitization and Replacement) PNM filed July 1, 2019; NMPRC bifurcated case; New Mexico Supreme Court ruled January 29, 2020 that Energy Transition Act applies to both dockets. NMPRC order approving abandonment/securitization issued April 1, 2020 Replacement hearings held January 2020 Replacement power: pending recommended decision and NMPRC Order by October 1, 2020 19-00018-UT 19-00195-UT PNM 2020 Renewable Plan Filing Filed June 1, 2020 Pending 20-00124-UT FERC Transmission Formula Rate True-Up Filed June 1, 2020 Informational filing submitted; rates effective June 1, 2020 N/A Solar Direct Program PNM filed May 31, 2019 for approval of voluntary renewable program expected to begin March 31, 2021; Hearings completed January 2020 Approved March 25, 2020 19-00158-UT
PNM Decoupling Filing
30
Filed May 28, 2020 Request
year-end
Residential Small Commercial
Removes utility disincentives to promote energy efficiency or conservation programs Eliminates the upside/ downside risks of weather for the non-fuel portion of customer bills
Full decoupling filing seeks to recover previously authorized fixed costs, current rate design attempts to recover fixed costs through volumetric rates
Decoupling Financial Impacts – 2020 / 2021 / 2022
31
2020 2021 2022 Customer Bills No Impact No impact Rates adjusted to reflect prior year under/over recovery Earnings No Impact Includes recovery true- up for customer use Current estimate: ~$16M Includes recovery true- up for customer use FFO No Impact No Impact No Impact 2020 2021 2022 Customer Bills No Impact No impact Rates adjusted to reflect prior year under/over recovery Revenues No Impact Revenues adjusted for under/over recovery based on customer use Current estimate: ~$16M increase in revenues Revenues adjusted for under/over recovery based on customer use FFO No Impact Includes adjusted revenues Includes adjusted revenues Cash Flow No Impact No Impact Collect prior year’s under/over recovery
$68.59 $76.12 $106.17 $115.42 $137.51
$50 $100 $150
City of Seattle - (WA) Public Service Co of Colorado (CO) El Paso Electric Co (NM) El Paso Electric Co (TX) PacifiCorp (UT) Public Service Co of NM (NM) Montana-Dakota Utilities Co (MT) PacifiCorp (WY) City of Colorado Springs - (CO) NorthWestern Energy LLC - (MT) Avista Corp (ID) Avista Corp (WA) PacifiCorp (ID) Idaho Power Co (ID) Southern California Edison Co (CA) Sacramento Municipal Util Dist (CA) City of Tacoma - (WA) San Diego Gas & Electric Co (CA) Southwestern Public Service Co (NM) Montana-Dakota Utilities Co (WY) Tucson Electric Power Co (AZ) Portland General Electric Co (OR) PacifiCorp (OR) Regional Average Bill Black Hills Power, Inc. d/b/a (WY) PacifiCorp (WA) Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (CA) Nevada Power Co (NV) PacifiCorp (CA) US Average Bill City of San Antonio - (TX) Southwestern Electric Power Co (TX) Modesto Irrigation District (CA) Entergy Texas Inc. (TX) Salt River Project (AZ) Imperial Irrigation District (CA) LADWP (CA) Arizona Public Service Co (AZ)
Comparison of Average Residential Bills(1)
Western Region Average Bills by Utility
PNM Bills Remain Below National and Regional Averages
32
(1)Based on U.S. Energy Information Administration's Residential Rate increases through June 2019
Customer bill impacts of increased investments are mitigated by:
‘
savings to customers
per-customer cost of new investments
Market and renewable investments result in lower costs for fuel
TNMP Demand and Infrastructure Investment
34
TNMP 2020 - 2023 Investment Plan by Region
West Texas ~47% North/ Central TX ~28% Gulf Coast ~25%
ten years(1), extensive regional studies call for increased transmission infrastructure to support reliability and growth, particularly in West Texas region
2020 Key Capital Projects
will be upgraded from 69kv to 138kv to support regional growth;
completed to help with transmission contingency issues and support the interconnection of a new gas-fired power plant;
current network capabilities
(1) Source: ERCOT 2019-2028 forecast
Year-over Year-Growth 2017 2018 2019 Demand-Based Load 4.0% 6.8% 4.9% TNMP Avg. Consumers 1.2% 1.3% 1.4%
Texas growth drives infrastructure needs
strong Texas economy
the Commercial and Industrial classes driven by energy sector in West Texas and Gulf Coast regions; drives need for increased electrification and reliability / system upgrade investments
refining processes, providing for diversity in customer mix
Basin, are some of the lowest in the country
Load growth is weather normalized and leap year adjusted
TNMP Low-Risk Revenue Profile
35
30% Gulf Coast
3% West Texas
19% North/ Central 16% North/ Central 12% West Texas 20% Gulf Coast
hour of kW demand during the month
meaning billing is the greater of the current month peak or 80% of prior 11 months peak
2019 Retail Revenues
50% Gulf Coast 35% North/Central Texas 15% West Texas
2019 TNMP Revenues
$295M Retail Revenues
Includes $94M of pass-through transmission expense recovery, trued up twice annually
$67M Wholesale Revenues
Fixed transmission investment recovery; can be adjusted twice annually through TCOS filings, $81M approved March 2020
PUCT Commissioners and TNMP Regulatory Agenda
36
Commissioners are appointed by the Governor of Texas and confirmed by the Senate.
Name Term Began Term Ends Party
DeAnn Walker (Chair)
Republican Arthur D’Andrea
Republican Shelly Botkin June 2018
Republican
PUCT Commissioners Filing Action Timing Docket No.
TCOS Filing TNMP filed January 24, 2020; Approved March 27, 2020 Rates implemented March 27, 2020 50481 DCOS Filing TNMP filed April 6, 2020; Settlement in principle reached in May 2020 Rates expected to be implemented September 1, 2020 50731
TNMP Regulatory Agenda
Upcoming activities:
TNMP Rate Recovery Framework
37
General Rate Review DCOS (Distribution
Cost of Service)
TCOS (Transmission
Cost of Service)
Process Standard rate review involving comprehensive filing, discovery, interveners, hearings, etc.; Staff recommendation and PUCT approval; 180-day clock (potential for settlement) Pre-defined schedules limited to distribution investments with discovery, interveners, hearings; Staff recommendation and PUCT approval; filed 1st week of April with rates implemented Sept 1 (potential for settlement) Pre-defined schedules; Staff recommendation and PUCT approval, 60-day clock Capital Structure / ROE / Cost of Debt Yes No No Rate Base / Property Tax / Depreciation Yes Distribution only Transmission only Other expenses Yes No No Timing (allowed) PUCT defined (1) Once per year Twice per year Current TNMP Filings Historical: filed May 2018 (test year of FY 2017), approved December 2018, rates implemented January 2019: 9.65% ROE, 45% Equity 2020 Filings: Filed April 6, 2020 Settlement in principle reached in May, rates expected to be implemented September 1, 2020 2020 Filings: 1) Jan 2020 filing, approved/ implemented in Mar 2020 2) Expected July 2020 filing, rates expected to be implemented Sept 2020
(1) PUCT rule calls for general rate review within 48 months of most recent order setting rates (TNMP order issued
December 2018), unless earning less than 50 basis points over the average authorized ROE of ERCOT investor-owned utilities (based on year-end rate base, weather-normalized)
Our Response to COVID-19
39
Safety of
Caring for Customers and Communities Managing
limited access to control rooms and critical assets
exposures and exposures with the public: eliminate group gatherings, deploy additional fleet vehicles
arrangements for all applicable job functions
suspended, late fees waived
team meetings
and Texas RE, EEI, EPRI and North American Transmission Forum
Texas Status
New Mexico and Texas Status Updates
40
New Mexico Status
begin multi-phased plan for “gradual and safe reopening”: limited re-openings began May 16th with capacity restrictions, additional openings beginning June 1st, some areas of state remain restricted
state re-opening began May 18th with additional services and activities opened; public schools may begin in- person summer school beginning June 1st, restrictions vary by city/county
Continued Transparency into COVID-19 Financial Impacts
41
Q4 September August July June May April March
Stage 2 Manage within Guidance Stage 3 Outside of Guidance
impacts and implement mitigating plans
Stage 1 Manage within Guidance
assumptions, positive offsets from warmer weather at PNM Summer temperatures are key Slow recovery into 2021, potential that some businesses do not reopen
Mitigating Effects of COVID-19 on Customer Collections
42
PNM joint filing on April 27, 2020 with requests deferral of uncollectible payments and incremental costs in response to COVID-19 to regulatory asset, recovery determined in next rate review Proactive outreach to customers with outstanding balances to offer information regarding payment assistance options and programs, including payment plans specifically designed to offer COVID-19 assistance, balances with active payment plans are not subject to write-off as bad debt expense In the absence of approval to defer costs, COVID-19 bad debt assumptions:
Historically ~0.35% of revenues (~$3M) Stage 1: 10% write-off of payment deferrals increases expense by <$0.01 EPS Stage 2: 10% write-off of payment deferrals increases expense by $0.01-$0.02 EPS Stage 3: identify balances associated with discontinued businesses, reassess impacts
TNMP risk mitigated by COVID-19 Electricity Relief Program Deferral of incremental costs associated with COVID-19 to regulatory asset including, but not limited to, bad debt expense As a T&D utility within ERCOT, TNMP’s customers are the Retail Electric Providers, bad debts are associated with these entities and not end users
Regulatory strategies reflect our focus on benefitting customers and communities
PNM COVID-19 Considerations
43
non-fuel revenues
government and health care, with a larger number of small/medium businesses
Customer Class Considerations
impacted by the Stay-at-Home order
PNM Sales by Customer Class % Volumes % Revenues Residential 36% 46% Commercial 41% 42% Industrial 20% 10%
PNM 2019 Revenues by Region
Southern ~15% Central ~85%
New Mexico 74%
PNM Resources Non-Fuel Revenues
TNMP COVID-19 Considerations
44 West Texas ~15% North/ Central TX ~35% Gulf Coast ~50%
TNMP 2019 Revenues by Region
and is less impacted by changes in load/demand:
TNMP Sales by Tariff Class % Volumes % Revenues Volumetric 28% 52% Demand-Based 72% 48% Customer Class Considerations
volumes during the Stay-at-Home order
some impacted by the Stay-at-Home order
West Texas 4% Houston/ Bay Area 13% Dallas/ North TX Area 9%
PNM Resources Non- Fuel Revenues
trued up twice per year
greater of peak monthly usage, or 80% of previous 11 months peak
COVID-19 Load: Assumptions and EPS Rules of Thumb
45
Planning Assumptions:
TNMP PNM
RULE OF THUMB 10% change in load = Monthly EPS Impact Residential Commercial April – May +/- $0.02 +/- $0.02 June – September +/- $0.03- $0.04 +/- $0.03- $0.04 October – December +/- $0.02 +/- $0.02 RULE OF THUMB 10% change in load = Monthly EPS Impact Volumetric Demand-Based April – May +/- $0.01 +/- $0.01 June – September +/- $0.02 +/- $0.01 October – December +/- $0.01 +/- $0.01 Stage 1 and 2 Stage 3 Residential + 5%
Commercial
Industrial No significant impacts Stage 1 and 2 Stage 3 Volumetric + 5%
Demand-Based
Planning Assumptions:
San Juan Abandonment, Securitization and Replacement Power
46
Abandonment
abandonment of San Juan coal plant after participation agreement and coal supply contracts end June 30, 2022
Securitization
investment in San Juan, proceeds available to fund replacement power
and reclamation costs
severance costs
development funds
Total $361M securitization
Replacement Power
scenario balances environment, cost and reliability
62% reduction in carbon emissions
storage capacity responsibly integrates new technology
peaking plants ensure reliability during energy transition, provides San Juan property tax base Total $298M investment Timing
applies to PNM’s application for abandonment, securitization and replacement power
April 1, 2020; decisions on replacement power expected by October 1, 2020
Approved Pending Approval Approved
San Juan Securitization Next Steps
Abandonment and Securitization Orders approved April 1, 2020:
▪ Approval to abandon Units 1 and 4 ▪ Grants irrevocable financing order authorizing the issuance of securitization bonds up to $361 million, to include:
undepreciated investment in San Juan, decommissioning and reclamation costs, and job training and severance costs
Securitization next steps:
47 April 1, 2020: Irrevocable NMPRC financing order Early 2022: PNM forms a Special Purpose Entity (SPE) that will issue the bonds July 2022: SPE issues securitization bonds Within 30 days of issuance: PNM files a report with the NMPRC, to include bond pricing and structure Semi-annually after issuance: PNM files to true up the customer charge for under- or over-collection
San Juan and Four Corners Generating Stations Ownership and Participants
48 Unit Total MW PNM MW PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership 1 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW) 4 507 392 77.3% City of Farmington 8.5% (43 MW) Los Alamos County 7.2% (36.5 MW) Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) 7.0% (35.5 MW) Total 847 562 Unit Total MW PNM MW PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership 4 770 100 13% Arizona Public Service Company 63% (485 MW) Navajo Transitional Energy Company 7% (54 MW) Salt River Project 10% (77 MW) Tucson Electric Power 7% (54 MW) 5 770 100 13% Arizona Public Service Company 63% (485 MW) Navajo Transitional Energy Company 7% (54 MW) Salt River Project 10% (77 MW) Tucson Electric Power 7% (54 MW) Total 1,540 200
San Juan Generating Station Four Corners Generating Station
Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Ownership and Leases
49
MW Owned vs. Leased Lease Expiration
Yearly Payment Amounts
▪ Total PV Unit 1 - $16.5M ▪ Total PV Unit 2 - $1.6M Unit 1 Owned 2.3% 30 MW Leased 7.9% 104 MW Total 10.2% 134 MW Unit 2 Owned 9.5% 124 MW Leased 0.7% 10 MW Total 10.2% 134 MW Unit 3 Owned 10.2% 134 MW Leased 0% 0 MW Total 10.2% 134 MW
TNMP Regional Breakdown
50
TNMP – Gulf Coast
West Texas ~15% North/ Central TX ~35% Gulf Coast ~50%
TNMP 2019 Revenues by Region Region provided 50% of 2019 retail revenues
and petrochemical industries, supplemented by the aerospace and medical industries
portion of residential customers in this region, combined with supporting commercial businesses (retail, restaurants, entertainment, schools health care facilities) and the marine and tourism industry native to the coast
customers, who have increased usage during COVID-19
equipment and hand sanitizer during COVID-19
and Texas City ~50,000 residents
TNMP Regional Breakdown
51
TNMP – North/Central TX
West Texas ~15% North/ Central TX ~35% Gulf Coast ~50%
TNMP 2019 Revenues by Region Region provided 35% of 2019 retail revenues
headquarters that each employ more than 1,000 people globally, 22 Fortune 500 companies and 8 of Forbes’ largest privately held companies
TNMP service territory has resulted in a load profile that is evenly split between residential customers and the commercial businesses supporting these communities (retail, restaurants, entertainment, schools, health care facilities)
customer usage are offset by reduced demand-based business usage
TNMP Regional Breakdown
52
TNMP – West Texas
West Texas ~15% North/ Central TX ~35% Gulf Coast ~50%
Region provided 15% of 2019 retail revenues
transmission customers with recovery trued up twice per year
higher-voltage customers that continue to trend above 2019 levels during COVID-19
gas industry between upstream (production, separation and water handling activities) and downstream (processing and transportation
even price for oil and gas production in the Permian Basin and the entire US, area is only partially served by utility power
TNMP 2019 Revenues by Region
Permian Basin Delaware Basin
2020 Consolidated Ongoing Earnings Guidance
53
2020 Earnings Guidance
2020 Annual EPS Distribution by Quarter
8% 22% 55% 15% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 - 2023 Potential Earnings Power
54
(1) Average rate base has been reduced by approximately $130M to represent ($0.05) of Earnings Potential for the lost equity return on Four Corners investment determined in the 2018 general
rate review. 2022 and 2023 rate base also reflects the removal of $283M undepreciated SJGS investment upon its retirement in mid-2022 to be recovered through securitization.
(2) Replacement Power includes $298M investment implemented mid-2022; $278M of generation investment and $20M of transmission investment. (3) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (4) PNM FERC in 2021-2023 reflects a return of 8%-9% to account for Western Spirit investment recovered through incremental rates. (5) Consists primarily of decommissioning/reclamation trust income (net of fees/taxes), AFUDC, certain incentive compensation, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 (prior to retirement). (6) TNMP earnings include additional recovery for Energy Efficiency, along with items excluded from rates (primarily AFUDC) and interest savings from the refinancing of existing debt. (7) Corporate/Other includes the earnings impacts associated with short and intermediate term bank debt and the 50% equity interest in NMRD. (8) Equity Financing Plans reflect $250M - $300M of mandatory convertibles issued in the second half of 2021 that would convert in 2024.
This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2021 - 2023 earnings guidance.
Allowed Return / Equity Ratio
2020 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint 2021 Earnings Potential 2022 Earnings Potential 2023 Earnings Potential
Avg Rate Base Return EPS
Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS PNM Retail(1)
9.575% / 50% $2.5 B 9.5% $1.47 $2.5 B $1.41 $2.4 B $1.37 $2.4 B $1.38
San Juan Replacement(2)
9.575% / 50% $150 M $0.08 $280 M $0.16
PNM Renewables(3)
9.575% / 50% $150 M 9.575% $0.09 $145 M $0.08 $140 M $0.08 $130 M $0.06
PNM FERC(4)
10% / ~50% $340 M 7.5% $0.15 $530 M $0.25-$0.28 $740 M $0.35-$0.39 $780 M $0.36-$0.41
Items not in Rates(5)
($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01)
Total PNM
$3.0 B $1.70 $3.2 B $1.71-$1.76 $3.5 B $1.85-$1.91 $3.6 B $1.93-$2.00
TNMP(6)
9.65% / 45% $1.3 B 9.65% $0.73 $1.5 B $0.79 $1.6 B $0.83 $1.9 B $0.95
Corporate/Other(7)
($0.22) ($0.13)-($0.11) ($0.11)-($0.09) ($0.15)-($0.13)
Equity Financing Plans(8)
($0.06)-($0.01) ($0.11)-($0.09) ($0.11)-($0.09)
Total PNM Resources
$4.3 B $2.21 $4.7 B $2.31 - $2.43 $5.1 B $2.46 - $2.56 $5.6 B $2.62 - $2.73
Liquidity as of May 1, 2020
55
PNM TNMP Corporate/ Other PNM Resources Consolidated Financing Capacity(1): Revolving credit facilities $440.0 $75.0 $340.0 $855.0 As of 05/01/20: Short-term debt and LOC balances $47.5 $0.1 $137.4 $185.0 Remaining availability 392.5 74.9 202.6 670.0 Invested cash 1.9 21.9 0.9 24.7 January 2020 Forward Equity Offering
287.1 Total Available Liquidity $394.4 $96.8 $490.6 $981.8
(1) Excludes intercompany debt and term loans