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Investor Day Milano Investor Day Milano Mozambique: a - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

15th March 2017 Investor Day Milano Investor Day Milano Mozambique: a transformational deal to empower the project Area 4 (85 Tcf GOIP) 25% farm down to Exxon for $ 2.8 bln Drilling and subsea completion leadership Mam ba LNG execution


  1. 15th March 2017 Investor Day – Milano Investor Day – Milano

  2. Mozambique: a transformational deal to empower the project Area 4 (85 Tcf GOIP) 25% farm down to Exxon for $ 2.8 bln Drilling and subsea completion leadership Mam ba LNG execution OPERATORSHIP ON: capabilities  Coral South FLNG and OPERATORSHIP ON: Offshore upstream  Onshore LNG facilities 2 Joint venture: 25% Eni, 25% Exxon, 20% CNPC, 10% ENH, 10% Kogas, 10% Galp

  3. Dual exploration model is delivering upfront cash generation 10/2011 08/2015 11/2016 12/2016 03/2017 12/2017 2022 2013 START UP START UP DISCOVERY DISCOVERY Mozambique Zohr Zohr Mozambique Zohr Mozambique Zohr Mamba 1st well 1st well Projects milestones 20% farm in 25% farm in 10% 30% Dual exploration farm in  2 discoveries: 4 deals in 4 years  >$ 9 Bln cashed in (> $ 8 Bln capital gain)  Fast tracking cash generation before fields’ start up  Capex reduction achieved without compromising LT growth 3

  4. Exploration successes fuelling future production Cumulative discovered resources 2014 ‐ 2016 | bln boe 2016 RRR | % 4 * 193 200 3.4 180 2016 160 3 30% Short cycles 140 P2/P3 + assets 50% contingent 120 2015 100 2 80 Disposed/ 70% Long life 25% under 60 production disposal 30 1 assets 40 2014 FID/ 20 25% Under FID in 4YP 0 0 eni Peers AVG 2014 ‐ 2016 UEC < $1 /BOE Avg 150% ~55% 2014 ‐ 16 Peers: Total, Chevron, Statoil, BP, Shell, Conoco Philips, Exxon 4 *139%, considering 40% of Zohr disposal

  5. An outstanding result in 2016 2016 leverage and change vs 2013 45 Peers adopting scrip dividend 40 Change since 2013 (% points) 35 30 25 20 CFFO = CAPEX 15 $ 46 /bbl 10 Today <20% 5 24 vs targets $ 50 /bbl 0 Eni 20 30 40 50 60 70 ‐ 5 2016 Leverage [%] LOWERING CASH NEUTRALITY AND LEVERAGE SINCE 2013 5 Peers: Total, Chevron, Statoil, BP, Shell, Conoco Philips,Exxon

  6. 6

  7. 2017-2020 Strategy FPSO Angola 7

  8. Exploration and long term organic growth are the engine of our strategy Resources Operations Value  High impact and conventional  High level of operatorship  Upstream and G&P integration exploration  Design to cost  Enhancement in the downstream  Long term organic growth  Fast track  Active portfolio management  Integrated with E&P assets and close to final market BUILDING A HIGH MARGIN PORTFOLIO 8

  9. Best positioned to capture upside Upstream 70 70  Production growth CAGR 3%  Exploration resources 2 ‐ 3 bln boe 2017 ‐ 2020 targets Mid downstream 4YP avg  G&P breakeven in 2017 * capex cash neutrality  Refining breakeven at $3/bbl margin in 2018 < $ 45 /bbl Free cash Efficiency flow  Capex vs previous plan: ‐ 8%  New projects BEP around $30/bbl 46 <45 Financials Capex cash neutrality*  New 4YP disposal target ~€ 5 ‐ 7 bln 2016 Avg. 2017 ‐ 2020  4YP CFFO € 47 bln 2016 2020 Brent $/Bl 43.7 70 9 *CFFO capex coverage

  10. A rich set of exploration opportunities Organic growth and replacement Flexibility and low break ‐ even EXPLORATION Gas – 55% Early monetization Oil – 45% 2 ‐ 3 BLN BOE EQUITY RESOURCES 10

  11. A large portfolio for the long term New EXPLORATION successes… Bouri ph2 Nyonie Evan FID before 2020 Shoal Mamba T3 ‐ 4 FID 2020+ IDD Eldfisk ph2 Coral ph2 Bonga North Kashagan ph2 Karachaganak EP Etan &Zabazaba A&E structures Libya Bonga SW Perla Ph.2 MambaT1 ‐ 2 Loango Argo cluster Kashagan CC01 Merakes Baltim SW Coral FLNG Johan Castberg …to Nenè ph2B PRODUCTION 11

  12. 2017 start ups ahead of schedule East Hub – Angola OCTP – Ghana JANGKRIK ‐ Indonesia IN PRODUCTION 8 th February 2017 Execution Time 39 months Execution Time 30 months Execution Time 42 months FID FID FID 100% Start ‐ up FID 85% FID Start ‐ up FID 95% Start ‐ up June 2017 June 2017 Project details Project details Project details  Eni working interest : 37%  Eni working interest : 44%  Eni working interest : 55%  Hydrocarbon: oil  Hydrocarbon: oil & gas  Hydrocarbon: gas  Gross Volumes in place Block 15/06  Gross Volumes in place: 750 mln boe  Gross Volumes in place: 470 mln boe  Peak production 100% : 85 kboe/d  Peak production 100% : 80 kboe/d (West + East) > 1.2 bln boe  Peak production Bl 15/06 (West + East) 100% : 150 kboe/d 12

  13. Zohr: countdown to first gas December 2017 Aug. 2015 Feb. 2016 Feb. 2017 FIRST 2.3 years from discovery Discovery FID GAS Zohr 1 Zohr 5 Zohr 3 Zohr 4 Zohr 6 Zohr 7 Zohr 2 Exploration & development Reservoir studies Engineering & Proc. Long Lead Items Onshore Construction & Installation Site Start Start Progress 50% piling sealine preparation laying Feb. 2016 – Site preparation Feb. 2017 – Onshore Plant Feb. 2017 – Platform 13

  14. An unrivalled inventory K a z a k h s t a n L i b y a I t a l y N o r w a y - Kashagan CC01 Bahr Essalam Ph.2 Johan Castberg Argo Cluster - Karachaganak Ph. 3 A&E structures CAGR 2020-2025 3% CAGR 2016-2020 3% 2016 2017 2020 2025 I n d o n e s i a New projects/ramp ups Jangkrik E g y p t M o z a m b i q u e C o n g o Merakes A n g o l a V e n e z u e l a G h a n a - Zohr - Coral Nenè Ph.2A - West hub OCTP Perla Ph.2 - Baltim SW - Mamba T1-T2 - Ochigufu - Coral & Mamba - Vandumbu future phases 14 - East hub

  15. High quality long term cash flow Cash flow per barrel | $/boe 4YP start up 29 $/boe 4YP 30 start up 27 $/boe 25 20 20 15 15 Legacy 11 16 $/boe 10 Legacy 12 $/boe 5 2016 2017 ‐ 18 2019 ‐ 20 43.7 Brent $/Bl 57.5 67.5 15

  16. Gas demand continuous growth and market rebalancing Supply/Demand LNG | Mtpa International prices |$/MMbtu ~ 135 Mtpa 14 ~ 55 Mtpa 500 (30 ‐ 40 LNG trains) (12 ‐ 15 LNG trains) 12 400 10 300 8 200 6 4 100 2 0 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030 Spot or renewals of existing contracts Contracted LNG TTF HH JAP LNG Demand Output LNG NEW LNG REQUIRED EARLY NEXT DECADE 16

  17. A turning point for G&P 4YP Action plan Ebit adj | € mln > 600  Gas supply contracts aligned to the market  Logistic costs reduction ~300  Equity gas/LNG monetization avg 2017 ‐ 18 avg 2019 ‐ 20 2025 CUMULATIVE CFFO € 2.6 BLN IN THE 4YP 17

  18. Extracting value from integration Upstream gas productions Midstream Positions Focus on LNG sales | Mtpa Targets 10  Maximizing value of equity gas  Developing a competitive LNG portfolio 3,5  Leadership position in European and emerging markets 2017 2025 A PORTFOLIO PLAYER INTEGRATED WITH UPSTREAM 18

  19. Downstream: building on the restructuring Refining & Marketing EBIT Chemicals | € Mln Breakeven Refining margin | $/bl 300 300 7.5 EBIT +€ 300 EBIT 2020 Mln 4.2 self help € 900 Mln 600 3 300 Scenario 2016 2020 upside @ constant scenario 2018 2013 2016 2016 4YP avg onwards SERM 4.2 5.5 4YP CUMULATIVE CFFO > € 4.5 BLN 19

  20. New energy solutions 2017 ‐ 2030 Guidelines  Significant growth of installed capacity  Technology neutral, with focus on hybrid projects  Technological and geographical synergy with other Eni business lines MW 500 400 300 200 100 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 Energy Solutions installed capacity 20

  21. Capex plan Capex allocation 2017 ‐ 20 € Bln ‐ 8% 34.4* IRR (%) 35 31.6 Other Mid ‐ downstream ≈ 10 30 Other + New energies 25 Upstream Production optimization > 20 ‐ 13% Mandatory 20 E&P** 15 E&P Development of new 15 ‐ 20 10 production 5 Exploration 0 plan 2016 ‐ 2019 plan 2017 ‐ 2020 average 2017 ‐ 20 CAPEX 2017 VS 2016 ‐ 18% 55% UNSANCTIONED IN 2019 ‐ 20 * Excluding JV financing and post SEM application @ constant FX; 21 ** E&P post portfolio

  22. Our enhanced disposal programme Disposal | € bln 30  Proved successful portfolio mgmt 40% Zohr 25  Dual exploration model 5 ‐ 7 2.6  E&P portfolio rationalization 20 2  Further financial flexibility 15 25% Mozambique 18 10 ~50% of our 4YP target 5 already achieved 0 2013 ‐ 16 2017 ‐ 20 22

  23. Cash Flow plan 16,0 € Bln scenario 14,0 disposal Growth other & efficiency 12,0 disposal 10,0 other 8,0 CAPEX 6,0 E&P E&P 4,0 2,0 0,0 avg 17 ‐ 18 avg 19 ‐ 20 Brent $/Bl 67 57 23

  24. Remuneration ‐ dividend policy confirmed Competitive distribution policy progressive with underlying earnings growth and scenario Floor dividend cash sustainability Cash neutrality  $50/bbl including disposals in 2016  $60/bbl organic in 2017  <$60/bbl organic 2018 ‐ 20 Additional financial flexibility 2017 DIVIDEND €0.8/SHARE (FULLY CASH) 24

  25. Our Our path athway ay to long t long term value lue Unrivalled exploration Fast cash generation Low breakeven portfolio Highly leveraged to oil price Strong balance sheet

  26. BACK UP 26

  27. Assumptions and sensitivity 4YP Scenario 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 Brent dated ($/ bl) 5 5 6 0 6 5 7 0 FX avg (€/ $) 1 .0 8 1 .1 3 1 .1 5 1 .2 0 Std. Eni Refining Margin ($/ bl) 4 .0 4 .0 4 .3 5 .5 NBP ($/ mmbtu) 5 .2 5 .3 5 .5 5 .5 Cracker Contribution Margin (€/ ton) 2 7 0 2 6 0 2 5 4 2 5 5 4YP sensitivity* Ebit adj ( bln € ) Net adj ( bln € ) FCF ( bln € ) Brent ( -1 $ / bl) -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .2 Std. Eni Refining Margin ( + 1 $ / bl) + 0 .2 + 0 .1 + 0 .2 Exchange rate € / $ ( + 0 .0 5 $ / euro) -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .2 27

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