Investissement Beyong the cycle, to invest for the next generation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investissement Beyong the cycle, to invest for the next generation Xavier Ragot Président de l’OFCE observatoire français des conjonctures économiques centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po www.ofce.sciences-po.fr

1. Private investment is recovering. 2. Do we face a supply side problem ? 3. In France, Public investment may be the problem. We need a project for the future generation :

Investment rate total 15 20 25 30 1995Q1 1995Q4 EUZ 1996Q3 1997Q2 DEU 1998Q1 1998Q4 1999Q3 FRA 2000Q2 2001Q1 2001Q4 ITA 2002Q3 2003Q2 2004Q1 Other EUZ 2004Q4 2005Q3 2006Q2 2007Q1 ESP (right scale) 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2 2013Q1 2013Q4 2014Q3 2015Q2 2016Q1 2016Q4 2017Q3 20 25 30 35

Investment rate (machines and equipments)

Capacity utilisation rate

France

Investment rate of firms

Sources : Comptes trimestriels - INSEE 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Profit rate export sectors 1980… 1980… En points de VA 1981… 1982… 1983… 1983… 1984… 1985… 1986… 1986… 1987… 1988… 1989… 1989… 1990… 1991… 1992… 1992… 1993… 1994… 1995… 1995… 1996… 1997… 1998… 1998… 1999… 2000… 2001… 2001… 2002… 2003… 2004… 2004… 2005… 2006… sur 2014q2-2015q4 + 5,8 pts de VA 2007… 2007… 2008… 2009… 2010… 2010… 2011… 2012… 2013… 2013… 2014… 2015…

Effect on investment of

Public Investment by the State : Net fixed asset accumulation 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Actifs fixes 0.3 0.2 Stocks 0.1 Actifs non financiers non produits 0.0

Conclusion 1. Private investment is recovering. 2. Do we face a supply side problem ? In the short run : but should increase investment 3. In France, Public investment may be the problem. We need a project for the future generation : 1. Mobility 2. energy and climate change. 3. Education and human capital