International Transport Energy Modeling (iTEM) Fourth workshop - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

International Transport Energy Modeling (iTEM) Fourth workshop Organizing team: Sonia Yeh, Lew Fulton, David McCollum, Page Kyle, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto 30–31 October 2018 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg, AT

Thank you to IIASA for hosting iTEM4, 0 and to ClimateWorks for financial support!

Outline iTEM organization updates Transport in the IPCC SR1.5 vs. iTEM models Priorities & directions for the iTEM community 1

iTEM organization updates

Our partners 2 International Transportation Energy Modeling (iTEM) Organized by Contributors Participants

2018 highlights for iTEM New partner 3 Sustainable Transport Division

2018 highlights for iTEM New collaboration: iTEM-KAPSARC • More from Amar Amarnath in Session D. • Proof-of-concept data cleaning & harmonization pipeline targeted for early 2019. 3

2018 highlights for iTEM Public outreach 3

2018 highlights for iTEM Major contributions • iTEM2 paper cited prominently IPCC SR1.5 (more below). • iTEM participants SLoCat (Gota et al. 2018) also cited. • Target similar inputs to AR6 with next iTEM model database. 3

Transport in the IPCC SR1.5 vs. iTEM models

Introduction to/review of the IPCC process Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does no new research —merely assesses based on existing, peer-reviewed research. 2015: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) completed. 8 October 2018: Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C ( SR1.5 ), as requested by the UN FCCC with the Paris Agreement (2015). • iTEM2 paper (Yeh et al. 2016) a key reference in §2.4.3.3: “Mitigation pathways compatible w/ 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development — Disentangling the whole-system transformation — End-use sectors – Transport” • Yet iTEM model range not aligned w/ IAMs used in SR1.5 (next slide) 2022: Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to be released. 4

Introduction to/review of the IPCC process Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does no new research —merely assesses based on existing, peer-reviewed research. 2015: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) completed. 8 October 2018: Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C ( SR1.5 ), as requested by the UN FCCC with the Paris Agreement (2015). • iTEM2 paper (Yeh et al. 2016) a key reference in §2.4.3.3: “Mitigation pathways compatible w/ 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development — Disentangling the whole-system transformation — End-use sectors – Transport” • Yet iTEM model range not aligned w/ IAMs used in SR1.5 (next slide) 2022: Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to be released. 4

Introduction to/review of the IPCC process Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does no new research —merely assesses based on existing, peer-reviewed research. 2015: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) completed. 8 October 2018: Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C ( SR1.5 ), as requested by the UN FCCC with the Paris Agreement (2015). • iTEM2 paper (Yeh et al. 2016) a key reference in §2.4.3.3: “Mitigation pathways compatible w/ 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development — Disentangling the whole-system transformation — End-use sectors – Transport” • Yet iTEM model range not aligned w/ IAMs used in SR1.5 (next slide) 2022: Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to be released. 4

Introduction to/review of the IPCC process Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does no new research —merely assesses based on existing, peer-reviewed research. 2015: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) completed. 8 October 2018: Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C ( SR1.5 ), as requested by the UN FCCC with the Paris Agreement (2015). • iTEM2 paper (Yeh et al. 2016) a key reference in §2.4.3.3: “Mitigation pathways compatible w/ 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development — Disentangling the whole-system transformation — End-use sectors – Transport” • Yet iTEM model range not aligned w/ IAMs used in SR1.5 (next slide) 2022: Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to be released. 4

Comparing SR1.5 transport to iTEM2 models 5 Final Energy—Transportation 2030 2050 188 Scenario category a a Above 2C 1.5C high overshoot a 2C a 1.5C low overshoot 129 56 76 34 42 a a Higher 2C Below 1.5C 188 200 73 a a 7 Lower 2C iTEM2 76 34 EJ/yr a 1.5C 129 56 73 42 7 Model BP MESSAGE 100 EPPA5 MoMo ExxonMobil Roadmap GCAM Shell GET WEPS+ > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM

Comparing SR1.5 transport to iTEM2 models 5 Final Energy—Transportation—Electricity 2030 2050 40 58 33 101 45 Scenario category a a Above 2C 1.5C high overshoot 75 56 25 30 a 2C a 1.5C low overshoot a a Higher 2C Below 1.5C 5 a a Lower 2C iTEM2 EJ/yr 20 a 1.5C 58 33 Model 75 BP MoMo 10 5 GCAM Roadmap 25 101 45 56 GET Shell MESSAGE WEPS+ 0 > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM

Comparing SR1.5 transport to iTEM2 models 5 Emissions—CO2—Energy—Demand—Transportation 2030 2050 20000 72 Scenario category a a Above 2C 1.5C high overshoot 91 39 15000 a 2C a 1.5C low overshoot a a Higher 2C Below 1.5C 53 24 29 72 Mt CO2/yr a a 91 39 52 Lower 2C iTEM2 53 24 29 10000 52 a 1.5C 5 Model BP MoMo 5 EPPA5 Roadmap 5000 GCAM Shell MESSAGE 0 > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM

Comparing SR1.5 transport to iTEM2 models 5 Energy Service—Transportation—Freight 2030 2050 250000 Scenario category a a Above 2C 1.5C high overshoot 24 200000 a 2C a 1.5C low overshoot 36 16 a a Higher 2C Below 1.5C 31 12 20 a a bn tkm/yr Lower 2C iTEM2 19 150000 24 36 16 20 31 12 19 5 a 1.5C 5 Model 100000 BP Roadmap GCAM Shell MESSAGE WEPS+ 50000 MoMo > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM

Comparing SR1.5 transport to iTEM2 models 5 Energy Service—Transportation—Passenger 2030 2050 24 125000 36 16 31 12 19 Scenario category 20 a a Above 2C 1.5C high overshoot a a 100000 2C 1.5C low overshoot 24 a Higher 2C a Below 1.5C 36 16 31 19 bn pkm/yr a a Lower 2C iTEM2 12 5 20 a 75000 1.5C Model 5 BP MoMo GCAM Roadmap 50000 MESSAGE WEPS+ > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM > 2° 2° hi lo 1.5° hi lo < 1.5° iTEM

Looking forward to AR6 19 January 2021: acceptance deadline for papers to be included in IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6). mid-2020: papers to be included should be submitted for review → any submissions from iTEM members, or iTEM intercomparisons, should be prepared by this date. To discuss at iTEM4: • What information needs to make it into this report? • Will iTEM members contribute jointly, individually, or both? 6

Looking forward to AR6 19 January 2021: acceptance deadline for papers to be included in IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6). mid-2020: papers to be included should be submitted for review → any submissions from iTEM members, or iTEM intercomparisons, should be prepared by this date. To discuss at iTEM4: • What information needs to make it into this report? • Will iTEM members contribute jointly, individually, or both? 6

Priorities & directions for the iTEM community

iTEM4 attendees are asked to participate in an expert elicitation survey. Approx 20 minutes to complete, mainly multiple-choice questions. Analytical priorities for the iTEM community Strength of iTEM: bringing together not merely academic, but industry, NGO, and IGO perspectives on modeling, analysis, and assessment → diversity of approaches, perspectives, and opinions. Check your e-mail Wednesday morning! Responses (anonymized) to be used in a concise, public statement of analytical needs in transport energy modeling in next several years. 7

Approx 20 minutes to complete, mainly multiple-choice questions. Analytical priorities for the iTEM community Strength of iTEM: bringing together not merely academic, but industry, NGO, and IGO perspectives on modeling, analysis, and assessment → diversity of approaches, perspectives, and opinions. Check your e-mail Wednesday morning! Responses (anonymized) to be used in a concise, public statement of analytical needs in transport energy modeling in next several years. 7 iTEM4 attendees are asked to participate in an expert elicitation survey.

Analytical priorities for the iTEM community Strength of iTEM: bringing together not merely academic, but industry, NGO, and IGO perspectives on modeling, analysis, and assessment → diversity of approaches, perspectives, and opinions. Check your e-mail Wednesday morning! Responses (anonymized) to be used in a concise, public statement of analytical needs in transport energy modeling in next several years. 7 iTEM4 attendees are asked to participate in an expert elicitation survey. Approx 20 minutes to complete, mainly multiple-choice questions.