www.eia.gov
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
International Energy Outlook 2013
for Center for Strategic and International Studies July 25, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
International Energy Outlook 2013 for Center for Strategic and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
International Energy Outlook 2013 for Center for Strategic and International Studies July 25, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
www.eia.gov
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
for Center for Strategic and International Studies July 25, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
2 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to China and India.
sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040.
increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States.
increases in China’s consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries.
dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46 percent by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040.
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average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
U.S. OECD Europe Japan South Korea China India Brazil Middle East Africa Russia
Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
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world energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
100 200 300 400 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia History Projections
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
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energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 China United States India History Projections 2010
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
107 55 220
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world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Liquids (including biofuels) Renewables (excluding biofuels) Natural gas Coal Nuclear History Projections 2010 34% 28% 22% 11% 5% 28% 27% 23% 7% 15% Share of world total
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
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China industrial sector energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
20 40 60 80 100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Liquids Renewables Natural gas Coal Electricity Total
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
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China gross output for iron production real 2005 dollars (MER) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 China gross output for chemical production real 2005 dollars (MER)
Source: Oxford Industrial Model Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
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10 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Non-OPEC petroleum liquids OPEC petroleum liquids Nonpetroleum
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
world liquids production million barrels per day History Projections 2010 62 49 5 50 35 2
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non-OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United States Russia OECD Europe Mexico/Chile
2010 2040
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2010 2010 2040
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world nonpetroleum liquids production in 2010 and 2040 million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
Biofuels Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids Other Other Brazil
United States
China Other
Qatar
2010 2040 2040
13 Source: EIA, IEO2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
Country 2011 2040 Past as prologue Iraq success Iran success Iran & Iraq success; Saudi Arabia takes the rest 2040 production range Saudi Arabia 11.1 15.5 10.2 13.8 6.0 9.5 Iran 4.2 5.9 3.9 8.1 8.1 4.2 Iraq 2.6 3.7 11.0 3.3 11.0 7.7 Other Middle East OPEC 7.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 _ Total Middle East OPEC 25.4 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.8 _ liquids production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios million barrels per day
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world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 OECD Non-OECD billion cubic feet per day 330 275 220 165 110 55
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1 2 5 5 6 10 12 16 19
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Other OECD Canada Australia/New Zealand Non-OECD Central and South America Africa Non-OECD Asia United States Middle East Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia growth in natural gas production 2010-2040 trillion cubic feet
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
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0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 world electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Coal Natural gas Hydropower Nuclear Other renewables Liquids
History Projections 40% 22% 36% 24%
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world nuclear electricity generating capacity, 2010 and 2040 gigawatts
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
50 100 150 200
Japan South Korea India Russia Other non-OECD OECD Americas OECD Europe China 2010 2040
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
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world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
5 10 15 20 25
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia
History Projections
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0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons Coal Natural gas Liquid fuels 2010 History Projections
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
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Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
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– World GDP increases by 3.6 percent per year between 2010 and 2040 and energy consumption rises to 820 quadrillion Btu (quads) in 2040 – Oil prices reach $163 (Brent in 2011 dollars) and the OPEC share of liquids production is 43% in 2040
– World GDP increases by 4.0 percent per year and consumption grows to 946 quads in 2040
– World GDP increases by 3.1 percent per year and consumption grows to 733 quads in 2040
– Oil prices rise to $237 per barrel as a result of high non-OECD demand and the OPEC share is 38% in 2040
– Oil prices are $75 per barrel as a result of low non-OECD GDP growth and the OPEC share is 51% in 2040
27 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
50 100 150 200 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Low Oil Price High Oil Price Reference
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
Brent crude oil price paths real 2011 dollars per barrel History Projections 2011 $237 $163 $75
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world energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
100 200 300 400 500 600 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Non-OECD OECD 242 282 535 285 History Projections 2010
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
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OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
Middle East North Africa West Africa South America
2010 2040
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
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map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations, as of May 2013
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI
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Shale oil
Rank Country Billion barrels 1 Russia 75 2 United States 58 3 China 32 4 Argentina 27 5 Libya 26 6 Venezuela 13 7 Mexico 13 8 Pakistan 9 9 Canada 9 10 Indonesia 8 World total 345
Shale gas
Rank Country
Trillion cubic feet
1 China 1,115 2 Argentina 802 3 Algeria 707 4 United States 665 5 Canada 573 6 Mexico 545 7 Australia 437 8 South Africa 390 9 Russia 285 10 Brazil 245 World total 7,299
Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI. Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet.
10 20 30 40 50 2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040
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natural gas production trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
China Canada Shale gas All other United States
Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013
Coalbed methane Tight gas
33 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013