International Economic Developments Nigel Ray Deputy Secretary, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Dec 19, 2022 224 likes •336 views

International Economic Developments Nigel Ray Deputy Secretary, Macroeconomic Group The Treasury 1 Level of real GDP in major advanced economies Index (March Qtr Index (March Qtr 140 140 2000 = 100) 2000 = 100) 135 135 130 130 USA

SLIDE 1

International Economic Developments

Nigel Ray Deputy Secretary, Macroeconomic Group The Treasury

SLIDE 2

Level of real GDP in major advanced economies

2 Source: Bloomberg 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 Mar 00 Mar 02 Mar 04 Mar 06 Mar 08 Mar 10 Mar 12 Mar 14 Index (March Qtr 2000 = 100) Index (March Qtr 2000 = 100)

USA EU Japan

SLIDE 3

Variability in Capital Flows

3 Source: IMF Note: Standard deviation of net capital flows vis-a-vis trend 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis AE EME Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP

SLIDE 4

Non-financial corporate debt

4 Source: Bank for International Settlements 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP

Emerging Market Economies Advanced Economies

SLIDE 5

China estimated capital flow

5 Source: Bloomberg

25 50 75 100

25 50 75 100 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 USD Billions USD Billions

SLIDE 6

China cross-border claims fall

6 Source: Bank for International Settlements 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 $US Billion $US Billion

Banks Non-Banks

SLIDE 7

Foreign currency exposure, by sector

Per cent of GDP, as at March 2013

Gross exposure Net exposure

Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5308.0.

20 40

20 40 Banks Other financial corporations Other resident sectors Per cent Per cent Assets Liabilities

20 40

20 40 Banks Other financial corporations Other resident sectors Per cent Per cent Before hedging After hedging

SLIDE 8

IMF Resources and Lending

8 Source: IMF Finance Department 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Feb-16 SDR Billion SDR Billion

IMF's Resources (Quota) IMF's New Arrangements to Borrow IMF Bilateral Loans Agreements DUMMY Total IMF Lending to Crisis Countries

SLIDE 9

China GDP Share versus IMF Quota Share

9 Source: IMF October 2015 WEO 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Per cent Per Cent

%GDP %Quota Pre-Reform %Quota Post Reform DUMMY

IMF Projections