Are we due a recession? US Four-quarter GDP (%) Recessions 10 8 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 25, 2024 •160 likes •213 views

Are we due a recession? US Four-quarter GDP (%) Recessions 10 8 6 US Four-quarter GDP (%) 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Q2 1954 Q2 1962 Q2 1970 Q2 1978 Q2 1986 Q2 1994 Q2 2002 Q2 2010 Q2 2018 Source: Datastream, October 2018 B O N D V

Are we ‘due’ a recession? US Four-quarter GDP (%) Recessions 10 8 6 US Four-quarter GDP (%) 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Q2 1954 Q2 1962 Q2 1970 Q2 1978 Q2 1986 Q2 1994 Q2 2002 Q2 2010 Q2 2018 Source: Datastream, October 2018 B O N D V I G I L A N T E S
The flattening yield curve US 10-Year Treasury Yield – US 2-Year Treasury Yield (%) 3 Recessions US 10Y Treasury Yield – US 2Y Yield (%) 2 1 0 -1 Dec-88 Dec-93 Dec-98 Dec-03 Dec-08 Dec-13 Dec-18 Source: Datastream, October 2018
Emerging market currencies: Depressed valuations EM currency basket*: Average real effective exchange rate 105 100 Real effective exchange rate 95 90 85 Financial Crisis 80 Trade Commodity Crisis? Asian 75 Crisis Crisis 70 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Source: Bank of International Settlements, August 2018. *Equal weighted: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, Turkey
The week ahead Monday: Japan Current Account Wednesday: UK Trade Balance, UK GDP; US PPI Thursday: Bank of England Credit Conditions & Bank Liabilities Surveys Thursday : US CPI Friday : Eurozone Industrial Production, US University of Michigan Current Conditions survey Source: Bloomberg as of 5 Oct. 2018. B O N D V I G I L A N T E S

Download Presentation

Download Policy: The content available on the website is offered to you 'AS IS' for your personal information and use only. It cannot be commercialized, licensed, or distributed on other websites without prior consent from the author. To download a presentation, simply click this link. If you encounter any difficulties during the download process, it's possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.

Recommend

Recession: Peak: Dec 07 Ended June 09 Recession: Peak: Dec 07 Ended June 09

Recession: Peak: Dec 07 Ended June 09 Recession: Peak: Dec 07 Ended June 09 Medicaid enrollment started rising appreciably later in 2008; officially recession started December 2007 in the U.S. In Missouri, unemployment rate rose

317 views • 4 slides

The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER

The Ongoing Recession: How Long and How Deep? Robert J. Gordon Northwestern University and NBER BAC Meeting October 22, 2008 No Debate About Recession (1) So Why Hasnt the Recession been Officially Declared? Lets ask

588 views • 32 slides

Recession Panel Francesco Caselli Three Questions Is this recession special? If so,

Recession Panel Francesco Caselli Three Questions Is this recession special? If so, why? Is the policy response right? Three Questions Is this recession special? (I dont know) If so, why? (I dont know) Is the

721 views • 38 slides

Workers and Employment Relations in RECESSION and Recovery 1. UK in Global Perspective 2.

Workers and Employment Relations in RECESSION and Recovery 1. UK in Global Perspective 2. Economics of Big Recession/weak recovery 3. Costs to People (not business write-offs) 4. Ways forward? Richard B. Freeman Harvard, NBER, LSE Centre for

486 views • 22 slides

Coronavirus and the Recession of 2020 What It Means for Workers Compensation Robert P.

Coronavirus and the Recession of 2020 What It Means for Workers Compensation Robert P. Hartwig, PhD, CPCU Clinical Associate Professor of Finance Darla Moore School of Business University of South Carolina Coronavirus & the Recession

870 views • 54 slides

1970s 8.86% 1980s 12.7% 1990s 8.12% 2000s 6.29% Freddie Mac Recession does not equal

Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade Decade Average Rate 1970s 8.86% 1980s 12.7% 1990s 8.12% 2000s 6.29% Freddie Mac Recession does not equal Housing Crisis recession [rseSH()n] NOUN 1. a period of temporary economic decline

385 views • 10 slides

The Great Recession and Youth Unemployment . Evidence from the United States Sylvia A.

The Great Recession and Youth Unemployment . Evidence from the United States Sylvia A. Allegretto, PhD Economist, Institute for Research on Labor and Employment University of California, Berkeley USA Background: the Great Recession Young

359 views • 15 slides

Predicting the Next Recession James D. Hamilton University of California at San Diego 1 If

Predicting the Next Recession James D. Hamilton University of California at San Diego 1 If picked a month at random over 1948:1 to 2018:11, what is probability U.S. will be in recession sometime within the next year or 2 years? 1 year 2

286 views • 15 slides

Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated Since the Great Recession? Yunjong Eo, University of Sydney

Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated Since the Great Recession? Yunjong Eo, University of Sydney joint work with James Morley, University of Sydney Workshop on Nonlinear Models at the Norges Bank January 26, 2018 The Great Recession and its

510 views • 27 slides

Human Resource Management in the Recession Bill Roche Professor of Industrial Relations &

Human Resource Management in the Recession Bill Roche Professor of Industrial Relations & Human Resources School of Business University College Dublin Presentation to CIPD, VHI House, May 25 th 2011 The Irish Recession and the Labour Market

911 views • 18 slides

Recession and Recovery August 29, 2017 Nicola Sapp Chief Financial and Administrative Officer

E L P ASO C OUNTY C OLORADO TABOR Recession and Recovery August 29, 2017 Nicola Sapp Chief Financial and Administrative Officer Presentation Overview Remember the Great Recession National, Colorado Springs and El Paso County

527 views • 27 slides

Business Strategy- During Recession Rammohan Bhave Ive heard theres going to be a

Business Strategy- During Recession Rammohan Bhave Ive heard theres going to be a recession. Ive decided not to participate. q Cash flow is the lifeblood of the business q To keep your business healthy, cash needs to continue

1.3k views • 46 slides

A new ecosystem is emerging Dato George Lim Companies That Prepare for a Recession Pull Ahead

A new ecosystem is emerging Dato George Lim Companies That Prepare for a Recession Pull Ahead During and After It Aggregated average EBIT indexed to 2003 Global Double-dip recession Financial 800 Crisis 600 400 200 0 2003 2005

460 views • 30 slides

The COVID-19 Storm and Recession Aftermath Landfall: Forbearance and Early Stage Workout

Wednesday, May 13, 2020 The COVID-19 Storm and Recession Aftermath Landfall: Forbearance and Early Stage Workout Structures 2020 Recession Commercial loans in default and many businesses will not survive. Recovery will likely take years.

204 views • 17 slides

The COVID-19 Storm and Recession Aftermath Storm Preparation: Batten Down the Loan Documents and

Wednesday, May 6, 2020 The COVID-19 Storm and Recession Aftermath Storm Preparation: Batten Down the Loan Documents and Collateral The Next Recession is Here Triggered by Covid-19 virus outbreak. Unemployment rate is very high and

205 views • 16 slides

Economic Recession, Family Stress and the Adjustment of 3-year-olds Elizabeth Nixon & Richard

Economic Recession, Family Stress and the Adjustment of 3-year-olds Elizabeth Nixon & Richard Layte Trinity College Dublin & Maeve Thornton, formerly ESRI Economic Recession Long history of research on the effects of socio-economic

693 views • 13 slides

International Economic Developments Nigel Ray Deputy Secretary, Macroeconomic Group The

International Economic Developments Nigel Ray Deputy Secretary, Macroeconomic Group The Treasury 1 Level of real GDP in major advanced economies Index (March Qtr Index (March Qtr 140 140 2000 = 100) 2000 = 100) 135 135 130 130 USA

331 views • 9 slides

Conference Estimating and Interpreting Financial Cycles Opening by S J Koopman

Conference Estimating and Interpreting Financial Cycles Opening by S J Koopman http://sjkoopman.net Department of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam CREATES, Aarhus University De Nederlandsche Bank, 2 September 2016, Amsterdam W

512 views • 27 slides

Banking on the Future: The Fall and Rise of Central Banking Lord Burns David Green Chair, LSE

LSE public lecture Banking on the Future: The Fall and Rise of Central Banking Lord Burns David Green Chair, LSE Former Head of International Policy, FSA Howard Davies Director, LSE Banking on the Future - the fall and rise of Central

1.3k views • 24 slides

Eurex expansion into FX derivatives Press Briefing 16 June 2005 Chicago Agenda FX Market and

Eurex expansion into FX derivatives Press Briefing 16 June 2005 Chicago Agenda FX Market and Opportunity for Eurex (Rudolf Ferscha) Eurex FX Products Offering (Satish Nandapurkar) Eurex Business Development in the U.S.

644 views • 27 slides

L ECTURE 13 The Great Depression April 22, 2015 I. O VERVIEW From: Romer, The Nation in

Economics 210A Christina Romer Spring 2015

988 views • 64 slides

Capital requirements Motivation The financial and crisis is primarily due to excessive

Capital requirements Motivation The financial and crisis is primarily due to excessive lending, and the lowering or credit standards The focus was initially on how to solve the crisis. Gradually, the focus is shifting toward

481 views • 28 slides

Chapter 1 The International Regulatory Environment 20 questions 9 9 10 10 1. Models of

Chapter 1 The International Regulatory Environment 20 questions 9 9 10 10 1. Models of Regulation Introduction to models of regulation Objectives and benefits of regulation Law and regulation Rules-based and principles-based

696 views • 42 slides

Labour Reallocation and Productivity Dynamics: Financial Causes, Real Consequences 1 Enisse

Labour Reallocation and Productivity Dynamics: Financial Causes, Real Consequences 1 Enisse Kharroubi Bank for International Settlements XI th Annual Seminar on Risk, Financial Stability and Banking Sao Paulo, Brazil August 10-12, 2016 1 The

517 views • 25 slides