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www.ecologic.eu Electric Vehicles and the Electricity Sector - Interactions and Limitations Max Grnig Ecologic Institute www.ecologic.eu Table of content current and future electricity sector integrating renewables integrating EV charging

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Electric Vehicles and the Electricity Sector

Interactions and Limitations

Max Grünig Ecologic Institute

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Table of content

current and future electricity sector integrating renewables integrating EV charging charging options monitoring options discussion

2 February 2011 2 Brussels, Electric Vehicles Stakeholder Workshop – Max Grünig

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Lead Question(s)

What role play EVs in the energy sector transformation? Do they foster or hinder a more widespread use of renewable power generating capacity? Which are the determinants for a successful integration of EVs into the electricity grid? Which regulatory measures are necessary to achieve this goal? What action can be taken at EU and MS level?

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Current and future electricity sector

based on the PRIMES reference scenario, IPM energy modelling:

EU energy demand rises from 3,300 TWh in 2010 to 4,920 TWh in 2050 peak demand rises from 500 GW in 2008 to 740 GW in 2050 (~+1% p.a.) Western and Northern regions show lower growth (except for Spain, Belgium and Ireland) Eastern countries show higher growth

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Generation mix

Rise of renwable energy sources:

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1,000

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Generation (TWh) Other Renewable Solar Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Biomass Other Thermal+PS CCGT Coal Hydro Nuclear Net energy imports Energy demand

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Renewables take over

renewables generation rises from 19% in 2010 to 32% in 2020 and 50% by 2050 mostly wind power: 5 % of total generation in 2010 to 25% in 2050

ther sources less dominant:

solar ~ 6% in 2050 significant Biomass and Hydropower

ther renewables (geothermanl, fuel cell, etc.) ~3% in 2050

but very significant regional differences (East/West and North/ South)

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GHG emissions from power generation

falling from 1,200 Mio. t in 2010 to 670 Mio. t in 2050 linked to an increase in carbon prices and to a large share of renewables

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Basic principles of the electricity system

electricity cannot be stored in the grid electricity generation has to match exactly power demand in each moment in time, otherwise voltage imballances occur power sources have different degrees of flexibility

time needed to reach operating capacity time needed to reach efficient power generation costs of shut down and restart

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Basic principles of the electricity system

electricity providers face the task to match the load profile with the least costly selection of power plants

dispatching of power plants according to the marginal cost of power generation (usually nuclear and wind) flattening load curves to reduce the need to adapt power supply

reduced peak loads leading to lower peak production costs

establishing a better coordination better power sources and sinks

reduced excess generation capacities preventing negative prices Smart Grid Technologies

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Daily load profiles

Load curve for a Wednesday and a Sunday in Germany (source WWF)

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Increasing shares of renewables

wind has low marginal costs, but is highly intermittent

ver 10,000 GW of additional wind capacity installed in EU 27 (2009)

need for back-up generating capacity (mostly gas)

wind can be disconnected and re-connected on a very short-term basis but: priority grid access for renewables

constraint on dispatching (other constraints can be CHP, such as in DK) impact: over-supply of wind energy at times of high wind and low demand result: negative electricity prices (-120€/MWh in December 2009 in DK)

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The way out…

different approaches are feasible:

a. transfer of excess electricity
b. storage of excess electricity
c. demand management / demand control

with different opportunities and challenges and different implications for EV integration

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Transfer of excess electricity

national electricity grids are interconnected through

European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E)

transmission capacities are designed for small scale balancing transfers, not for large scale transmission of excess capacities bottlenecks are already reached, especially in times of high wind (DK > DE or DE > PL)

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Transfer of excess electricity

need for significant investment in additional transmission capacity

Commissioner Oettinger estimated total investment needs in energy sector to be 1 trillion € by 2020 (07 October 2010) Strategic Energy Sector Information system (SETIS) expects 400 to 450 billion € until 2040 in grid investments (25% transmission, 75% distribution)

need for legal framework to support new transmission lines need for political support for new transmission lines

at EU and MS level

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Transfer of excess electricity

upgrading the transmission system:

high voltage direct current (HVDC) long distance and undersea cables flexible alternative current transmission systems (FACTS) gas insulated lines (GIL) high temperature superconducting (HTS) cables

additional transmission capacity: 50 to 70 GW (300% increase) by 2050 also, 10 to 15% additional back-up generating capacity needed (ECF)

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Storage of excess electricity

pump storage

currently in use low capacities (max 6.7 GWel in DE, one plant ~8.5 GWh)

compressed air storage

under development very high potential capacity (~3TWh)

battery storage, such as EVs

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EV as flexible sinks

EVs as one-way storage or flexible sinks 1 million EVs ~ 10 GWh or stored electricity

initially limited storage potential in GWh (at least until 2020) not permanently available (use requirements, load condition of battery) but significant short term balancing potential

in DE, currently 7GW 1 million EVs can absorb up to 3GW regulating energy high potential for grid stabilisation / regulation

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Why not Vehicle to Grid (V2G)?

faster cycling of EV batteries increased wear and tear of batteries (costs) shorter lifetime

very high costs for V2G

nly very high incentives would overcome this barrier

car owners require final control over battery to ensure mobility and accessibility of their EV

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Demand Management and Smart Grid Technology

integrating renewable and conventional power sources into virtual power plants that stabilise supply updating the distribution grids for two way power flow smart metering for power users dynamic pricing reflecting actual „scarcity“ of electricity communication between power sinks (appliances etc.) and the grid

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Impacts of EV charging

100% EVs ~ 223 million cars (EU 27 today) with 20 kWh/ 100km and 10,000km yearly mileage

2,000 kWh annual energy per car total fleet consumption 446 TWh i.e. total electricity increases by 13%

total electricity need not likely to become an issue for a long time

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Impacts of EV charging

uncontrolled charging for

a. 10 mio. EVs b. 20 mio EVs

in Germany (source: WWF)

severe impact on peak load

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Impacts of EV charging

phased charging for

a. 10 mio. EVs b. 20 mio EVs

in Germany (source WWF)

still impact on peak load

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Impacts of EV charging

peak and off-peak charging

for 1 million EVs

ff-peak charging successfully

avoids an increase in peak load for small numbers of EVs

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Impacts of EV charging

no bottlenecks at the transmission level (even for uncontrolled charging in the initial time) potential bottlenecks at the distribution level constraints are more in the domain of the hourly load profile than in total energy consumption additional risks due to geographical clustering (suburbia, male, high income)

similar charging patterns

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Grid resilience

European distribution grids feature different degrees of grid resilience:

differentiated picture, most issues in new Member States and the Med

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Underperformers Best-in-class Estonia Denmark Hungary Germany Lithuania Netherlands Poland Latvia

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Impacts of EV charging

assuming 3 kW charging (at 10 kW, very different picture) in MS with mature distribution grids, no risks for initial roll-out in MS with weak distribution grids, severe risks for initial roll-out but: not all MS anticipate EV uptake at similar levels

hot spots: France, Netherlands, UK, Germany, Denmark attention should focus on potential issues in these lead markets

UK, Italy, Spain

long-term: high investment needs in a large number of MS (East and South)

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Different charging options

Currently, three basic systems are competing for market dominance in EV charging:

charging with household connections (110 to 220 V AC at 30 kW) so-called fast-charging (300-600 V DC, at more than 40kW) battery swap systems

In addition, there are a number of developments proposing a contactless inductive charging process.

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Different charging options

Level Application Voltage Amperage Associated standards Description 1 Residential 120 <30 SAE J1772 Same power source used for standard home appliances in the US. Provides AC energy to vehicles; often portable

devices. Standard speed

charging. 2 Residential and Commercial 208-240 30-40 SAE J1772, IEC 62196, IEC 60309 Can use the same power source as larger home appliances in the US (i.e., dryer) to provide an AC energy

supply. Moderate speed

charging. 3 Commercial 400+ >40 CHAdeMO DC energy supply for networks and commercial use. High speed charging.

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Different standards

IEC 62196 (presently VDA-AR-E 2623-2-2) - The international standard has not yet been approved and is under preparation

7 pins mostly Europe manufacturers:

Menneke, EDF, CEEplus, Legrand, Gewiss, Marechal Electric, Scame, Schneider Electric, Radiall, Vimar, Weidmüller France, Yazaki Europe

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Different standards

SAE J1772

5 pins mostly in the USA manufacturers:

AeroVironment, Clipper Creek, Coulomb Technologies, ECOtality Blink, GE Wattstation, GoSmart Technologies, Leviton evr green, Yazaki

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Different standards

CHAdeMO

7 pins USA, Europe and mostly Japan manufacturers:

Aker Wade Power Technologies, Bosch, Epyon, Evtronic, Fuji Heavy Industries, SGTE Power, Nissan Motor Company, Tokyo Electric Power Company, Toyota Motor Corporation, Tyco Electronics, Vector Japan

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Different standards

so far no clear winner search for a common standard each player claims to have the superior solution common standard by 2017 (ACEA)

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Comparison of charging solutions

charging with household connections

230 V AC slow charging (8 hours and more for a full charge) low health hazard relatively low initial investment costs (<2,000€ per outlet) lower costs for mulit-unit charging relatively low operating costs

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Comparison of charging solutions

fast-charging

300-600 V DC (can be connected to low or medium voltage grid) faster charging (up to 50% in 10 to 15 minutes) increased health hazard due to high voltage significant investment costs of 20,000€ to 40,000€ per charging spot (approximately the cost of a gas station pump) relatively low operating costs

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Comparison of charging solutions

battery swap systems

flexible voltage very fast swap (recharging at different speeds) under 3 minutes very low health risk (no touch procedure) very high initial investment costs (comparable to a gas staion) high operating costs (comparable to a gas station) low flexibility with different car makes

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Comparison of charging solutions

induction charging

still under development potentially very low health hazard high investment costs low operating costs high flexibility with different car makes

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Comparison of charging solutions

very long amortisation periods (10 years and more) so far no viable business model in sight new business models might evolve

charging for parking space charging per kilometer use

very high initial investments necessary for rol-out of necessary infrastructure

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Charging infrastructure

markets may not be able to solve this without help

governments can subsidise or finance public chargers the finance sector can develop instruments to support public charger construction utilities or charging companies can charge higher use fees that actual retail electricity prices to EV users

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Monitoring of EV charging

Option Application Strength Weakness Residential smart meter Residential charging Detailed use of consumer energy use for electric vehicles Privacy issues; Manipulation issues; Requires more widespread use of smart meters Commercial data collection Commercial charging Relatively easy and cost effective to implement because most utilities are already collecting the information No individual car data available Tachographs/ onboard communication devices installed in vehicles Residential and commercial vehicles Provides a detailed picture of vehicle activities; Activities could be analysed or taxed according to use (i.e., higher taxes for driving during peak periods); Some car manufacturers already install communication devices Costly and burdensome to implement; Privacy issues; Manipulation issues

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Monitoring of EV charging

first impressions:

On Board using digital tachograph – very costly and issues with data protection (but feasible if combined with km-road-charge) Monitoring through separate metering at dedicated (public) charging stations (viable option) Monitoring through smart metering (preferred option)

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EV taxation

Direct versus indirect taxation

Indirect taxation preferable Power providers submit data and pass on tax burden to the final customer.

Smart metering allows tax discrimination of transport electricity and can thus maintain revenue equilibrium Similarly, per-km road-charging can achieve revenue equilibrium

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Discussion

Which are the determinants for a successful integration of EVs into the electricity grid?

magnitude of the market penetration; timing of charging (peak/off-peak); charging duration (slow/fast); load management and demand management; structure of the power sector; availability of renewable energy sources.

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Discussion

No bottlenecks at total electricity demand / transmission level? No issues for mature distribution grids (F, NL, DE, DK)? Severe risks for weak distribution grids (UK, IT, ES)? No viable business model for EV charging, yet? Which standard for EV charging? Which approach to EV monitoring / metering? Need for perspective on electricity taxation (customers expect a cheap fuel), which way: per-km charging or electricity metering?

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Discussion

Can EVs support the decarbonisation of transport? Do they foster or hinder a more widespread use of renewable power generating capacity? Are high shares for renewables energy sources realistic? Which regulatory measures are necessary to achieve this goal? What action can and needs to be taken at EU and MS level?

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