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Integrating renewable energies - estimating needs for flexibility, competition of technologies and the impact of grid extensions JRC Modelling Workshop 5 th December 2014 Frieder Borggrefe, Yvonne Scholz, Thomas Pregger German Aerospace

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SLIDE 1

„Integrating renewable energies - estimating needs for flexibility, competition of technologies and the impact of grid extensions“

JRC Modelling Workshop 5th December 2014

Frieder Borggrefe, Yvonne Scholz, Thomas Pregger German Aerospace Centre (DLR), Institute of Technical Thermodynamics

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SLIDE 2

Structure

  • 1. Introduction: The DLR System Analysis Group
  • 2. REMix: Load balancing and flexibility options
  • 3. Load balancing with high shares of renewable energies, BMWi 2014
  • 4. Results: Technology assesment
  • 5. Critical discussion of modelling approaches

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 2

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SLIDE 3
  • 1. Introduction

DLR - Who we are

www.DLR.de • Chart 3 > Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014

Space Administration Aeronautics Transport Space Research and Technology Energy Project Management Agency

Solar Research Systems Analysis Thermal & Chemical Storage High & low Temp. Fuel Cells Combustion & Gas Turbine Technologies Wind Energy Research

Research Areas

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SLIDE 4

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 4

source: DLR-TT

  • Mo. 30.10
  • Di. 31.10
  • Mi. 1.11
  • Do. 2.11
  • Fr. 3.11
  • Sa. 4.11
  • So. 5.11

Electricity demand

Conventional generation nuclear, coal, gas power plants Storages pumped hydro compressed air hydrogen Demand side management industry & households, increases system efficiency

Electric vehicles (EV) Heat demand

HVDC lines long-range power exchange and imports Transmission grid based on current European AC grid

  • x

BEV/hybrids: charging strategies, hourly battery capacities of the fleet connected to the grid FCEV: flexible on-site H2 generation Flexible operation of CHP with:

  • heat storages
  • peak boiler & electric

heaters

Installed capacities and power generation profiles from renewables

Scenario analysis with model REMix

cost minimised supply in temporal & spatial resolution

model results: generation & storage strategies

GHI DNI wind speed run-off river

….

  • 2. Energy systems model REMix:

validation of power supply, load balancing and flexibility demand

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SLIDE 5

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

614 617 585 564 558 548 562 574

Gross electricity production, TWh/yr

Hydrogen (CHP, GT)) Renewable import Photovoltaic power Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass & biogenic wastes CHP - gas & coal Condensing - gas & oil Condensing - lignite Condensing - hard coal Nuclear power

Results: Structure of gross electricity generation in Scenario A

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 5

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SLIDE 6
  • 3. Potential for load balancing to integrate large shares of REN-E

Investigated Scenarios

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 6

Scenario „Import“ Scenario „H2“ Reference Scenario No solar import, regional REN-E Solar CSP import No solar import, reg.

  • Cons. grid

2020

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Opt. grid

2050

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Cons. grid

2030

  • How will flexible technologies be used and to what extend competition might arise

between these technologies?

  • What characteristics define an efficient electricity mix for the integration of large

shares of renewables?

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SLIDE 7

REMix OptiMo

Linear energy systems modelling

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 7

Configuration

Investments: yes Configuration: LP (Linear programming) Time slices: 1 Year, 8760 days Regions: 16

Model variables:

  • Generation-, transport and storage- capacities
  • Electricity generation
  • Transport and storage
  • Heat generation and storage
  • Excess capacity

Electricity Heat CHP 20 23 Conventionals 40 DSM 30 Storages 5 Renewables 4 CSP 2 Electric vehicles 1 Total 102 23 Time steps All hours of one year 8760h

Technologies

MorAlgTun Iberia France PolCzeSlk Nordel UK_IE BeNe Lux Denmark_W Austria Switz- Aly Germany

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SLIDE 8

REMix: Data

Feed-in from fluctuating renewables

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 8

  • Reference scenario: No additional

flexibility options

+

Flexible CHP based on thermal storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler

++

Additional load management options Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexible charging

+++

Additional construction of electricity storages (e.g. CAES)

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SLIDE 9
  • GIS-based method with 1 x 1 km² area pixel
  • Upper bound for district heating grids
  • 23 technologies
  • Potential district

heating areas

  • Annual demand
  • Heat density
  • Costs

Demand per capita Density of heat suppy District heating

REMix: Data

Identification of flexiblity from heat demand

  • Reference scenario: No additional

flexibility options

+

Flexible CHP based on thermal storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler

++

Additional load managment options Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexbile charging

+++

Additional construction of electricity storages (CAES- Storages)

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SLIDE 10

30 different endusers with the ability for load shifting and load shedding

Theoretic potential for DSM in 2010

REMix: Data

Identification of flexible load

  • Reference scenario: No additional

flexibility options

+

Flexible CHP based on thermal storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler

++

Additional load managment options Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexbile charging

+++

Additional construction of electricity storages (CAES- Storages)

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 10

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SLIDE 11

30 different endusers with the ability for load shifting and load shedding

Theoretic potential for DSM in 2010

REMix: Data

Identification of flexible load

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 11

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SLIDE 12

Investigated Szenarios

Potential for load balancing to integrate large shares of REN-E

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 12

Scenario „Import“ Scenario „H2“ Reference Scenario No solar import, regional REN-E Solar CSP import No solar import, reg.

  • Cons. grid

2020

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Opt. grid

2050

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Cons. grid

2030

  • How will flexible technologies be used and to what extend competition might arise

between these technologies?

  • What characteristics define an efficient electricity mix for the integration of large

shares of renewables?

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SLIDE 13
  • 4. Results:

Indicator 1 - annual shedded energy

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 13

Optional grid extension

Reference scenario No grid ext

  • Optim. grid

2050 No grid extent. 2050 Annual shedded energy from fluctuating renewables in TWh

  • 47%

Importance of the grid: Model endogenous grid extension significantly reduces demand for storage

  • Reference scenario: No additional

flexibility options

+

Flexible CHP based on thermal storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler

++

Additional load management options Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexible charging

+++

Additional construction of electricity storages (CAES)

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SLIDE 14
  • 4. Results:

Indicator 1 - annual shedded energy

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 14

CHP – plants

Reference scenario No grid ext

  • Optim. grid

2050 No grid extent. 2050 Annual shedded energy from fluctuating renewables in TWh

  • 29%
  • 28%

Runner up: CHP – plants can significantly reduce load shedding

  • Reference scenario: No additional

flexibility options

+

Flexible CHP based on thermal storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler

++

Additional load management options Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexible charging

+++

Additional construction of electricity storages (CAES)

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SLIDE 15
  • 4. Results:

Indicator 1 - annual shedded energy

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 15

Reference scenario

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Opt. grid

2050 H2 scenario CHP import Annual shedded energy from fluctuating renewables in TWh

  • Reference scenario: No additional

flexibility options

+

Flexible CHP based on thermal storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler

++

Additional load management options Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexible charging

+++

Additional construction of electricity storages (CAES)

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SLIDE 16
  • 4. Results:

Indicator 2 – model endogenous build of gas turbines and H2 storage

  • Reference scenario: No additional

flexibility options

+

Flexible CHP based on thermal storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler

++

Additional load managment options Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexbile charging

+++

Additional construction of electricity storages (CAES- Storages)

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 16

Reference scenario

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Opt. grid

2050 H2 scenario CHP import Converter capacity H2 storage Additional gas turbine

DSM

DSM will be used to cover peak hours.

  • > Will be valuable only in combination with grid extensions!

Model endogenous build gas and storage capacity in GW

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SLIDE 17
  • 4. Results:

Indicator 2 – model endogenous build of gas turbines and H2 storage

  • Reference scenario: No additional

flexibility options

+

Flexible CHP based on thermal storage, conventional and electric peak load boiler

++

Additional load managment options Heat pumps Electric vehicles - flexbile charging

+++

Additional construction of electricity storages (CAES- Storages)

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 17

Reference scenario

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Opt. grid

2050 No grid ext 2050

  • Opt. grid

2050 H2 scenario CHP import Model endogenous build gas and storage capacity in GW Converter capacity H2 storage Additional gas turbine

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SLIDE 18
  • 4. Results

Overview

  • Importance of the grid: Model endogenous

grid extension significantly reduces demand for storage

  • CHP plants can contribute significant

flexibility

  • DSM will be used to cover peak hours. Will

be valuable only in combination with grid extensions

  • CHP and DSM complement each other well
  • By using CSP imports demand for storages

can be significantly reduced.

  • Long term storages will only become

available if other flexibility options are not used.

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 18

Indicator 1 RE shedding Indicator 2 Capacity

Grid CHP Grid DSM Grid CHP DSM CAES

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SLIDE 19
  • 4. Results

Critical discussion

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 19

How to use the full potential of the data? Regional aggregation: under- estimating demand for flexibility? Indicators for renewable integration must be precise Cost based evaluation of scenarios necessary How to make a strong sensitivity analysis? Beyond steady state: Investment path

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SLIDE 20

Recommendations

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 20

  • 1. Understand your indicators
  • 2. Get your costs right
  • 3. Understand the sensitivity of your key parameters
  • 4. Don’t underestimate the grid …

… but it is only half the cure

  • 5. Don’t spend to much time on CAES-modelling …

… it is better spend in modelling the heat sector

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SLIDE 21

Recommendations

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 21

  • 1. Understand your indicators
  • 2. Get your costs right
  • 3. Understand the sensitivity of your key parameters
  • 4. Don’t underestimate the grid …

… but it is only half the cure Take your time and understand what is important for the quality of your model results

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SLIDE 22

Tobias Fichter > 05.05.2011

Thank You!

  • Slide 9
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SLIDE 23

References

  • BMWI/BMU 2010: Energiekonzept für eine umweltschonende,

zuverlässige und bezahlbare Energieversorgung. (in German) Ministries

  • f Commerce and Environment for the Federal government; Berlin,

September 2010

  • DLR/IWES/IfNE 2012: Long term scenarios and strategies for the

deployment of renewable energies in Germany under the consideration of European and global developments. Final report in commission of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment (in German), March 2012

  • DLR 2014: Potential and constraints of load balancing by energy storage,

demand side management, and flexible CHP with high shares of renewable electricity generation (in German) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, June 2014

  • SCHOLZ, Y. 2012: Renewable energy based electricity supply at low

costs - Development of the REMix model and application for Europe; Dissertation, University of Stuttgart, 2012

> Integrating renewable energy > Frieder Borggrefe > Petten December 4th 2014 www.DLR.de • Chart 23