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Integrating Contemporary and Historical Climate Records to Predict - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Integrating Contemporary and Historical Climate Records to Predict - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Integrating Contemporary and Historical Climate Records to Predict Future Climate-Species Suitability for Big Sagebrush in WNA Kyle Taylor University of Wyoming Overview Paleo-Climate Data Compilations NOAA Labs Methods for
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- Paleo-Climate Data Compilations
- NOAA Labs
- Methods for Reconstructing Climate Conditions
- Tree-ring Records
- Lake-Sediment Records
- Building a Statistical Model Using Climate Data
- Some Initial Predictions for Climate-Species
Suitability in Western North America
- Summary
Overview
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Dataset Compilations
- NOAA Paleo-climate Models
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Tree-Ring Records
Ring width = β + f(precipitation + temperature ) + ε
1. Fit a Regression Model to Ring Widths Using Recent Records of Precipitation and Temperature
- 2. Solve for Temperature / Precipitation Using
Ring Widths for Records that Extend Beyond the Range of Instrument Data.
Tree-ring records can be used to build linear models of correlated climate factors, particularly precipitation and temperature.
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Linear Approximation and Interpolation of Tree-Ring Data
Ring width = β + f(precipitation + temperature + …) + ε
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Lake Sediment Records
- Abundance of plant species inferred
from quantity of pollen grain
- Nearby fire occurrence inferred from
charcoal
Species Abundance = Suitability
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Model Overview
Current (observed) Paleo-climate Record
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Hierarchical Regression
=precipitation, =temperature, =fire intensity.
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Making Predictions
- 1. Train our model with observations of
precipitation, temperature, and fire at each grid cell in the paleo-climate and current-climate record.
- 2. Take
, coefficients fit to paleo-climate and current-climate and apply them to projections of temperature, precipitation, and projected fire-risk in the future.
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High suitability (p>=0.7) Moderate suitability (p>=0.2)
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Summary
- Using observations of species abundance and climate-effects from
the Paleontological record has the potential to greatly improve climate-species modelling.
- Climate datasets derived from paleo-ecological tree-ring and lake-
sediment records are improving and becoming more useful for reliable species modelling.
- My model cannot be evaluated well, so performance cannot be
quantified as easily as traditional species distribution models.
- Over-prediction of suitability may be a problem, as well as