Integrated Science and Systems Approaches in Support of Global - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Integrated Science and Systems Approaches in Support of Global Transitions

Prof Dr Pavel Kabat IIASA Director/CEO

MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

FOOD

• 925 million people were undernourished

in 2010 (FAO)

• By 2030, the world’s population will have

increased by one billion (IIASA)

• Agriculture accounts for 70% of

freshwater withdrawals (UN Water)

MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

WATER

• 884 million people have inadequate

access to safe freshwater (WHO & UNICEF)

• Water use has been growing at more

than twice the rate of population increase in the last century (FAO & UN-Water)

• Hydropower supplies about 20% of the

world’s electricity (ICOLD)

MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

ENERGY

• 2.5 billion people are without access to

modern energy (IIASA/GEA)

• World primary energy demand expected to

increase by 36% between 2008 & 2035 (IEA)

• Energy production and consumption

contributes over 80% of global GHG emissions (IIASA)

MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

CLIMATE CHANGE

• Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank

among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). (IPCC)

• Average temperatures predicted to increase by

1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100 (IPCC)

• 70 million Africans could suffer from devastating

floods as a result of climate change (IPCC)

MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

POVERTY & EQUITY

• Over 24,000 children die each day due to

poverty (UNICEF)

• 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a

day (World Bank)

• “Hunger is a cause of poverty, not just a

consequence of it.” (FAO)

INEXTRICABLY LINKED

Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity Food & Water

IIASA’S APPROACH

RESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES

• Integrated
• Interdisciplinary
• International
• Independent
• Solution-oriented
• Long term
• Trade offs

= Systems Analysis

ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS:

• PAST SUCCESSES
• Dynamic Systems
• Multi-criteria decision

analysis

• Adaptive dynamics theory
• Game theory
• Agent-based modeling
• Stochastic optimization
• NEW RESEARCH
• Advances in Modeling

Dynamic Systems

• Extreme events, Systemic

Risks and Robust Solutions

• Integrated Modeling and

Decision Support

• Advanced Systems

Analysis Forum

IIASA helps to put the puzzle together

NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS

Professor Tjalling Koopmans and Professor Leonid Kantorovich Nobel Prize in Economics (1975)

NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS

Professor Paul Crutzen Nobel Prize for Chemistry (1995)

NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS

Professor Thomas C. Schelling Nobel Prize for Economics (2005)

NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS

Intergovernmental Panel

• n Climate Change

Nobel Peace Prize (2007)

YOUNG SCIENTISTS SUMMER PROGRAM

INTERDISCIPLINARY

35% 37% 28%

Natural Scientists & Engineers Social Scientists Mathematicians and others

INTERNATIONAL

• PARTNERS
• IIASA collaborates with almost 300 institutions

from nearly 40 countries

IIASA’S MEMBER COUNTRIES

HOME OF IIASA SINCE 1972

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

RESEARCH STRATEGY

INTEGRATION: AREAS & PROGRAMS

Research Programs Energy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity Problem-oriented Programs Energy Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Ecosystems Services and Management Water Evolution and Ecology Risk, Policy & Vulnerability Drivers of Global Transformations World Population Transitions to New Technologies Policy and Systems Analysis Advanced Systems Analysis Policy & Governance

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Energy and Climate Change

Highly Published

Synergies of Multiple Energy Objectives

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

Only Climate Only Pollution Only Energy Security All Three Objectives

Integrated Climate-Pollution- Security Policies “Single minded” approaches for multiple challenges

Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012) 335 no. 6065; p. 183-189

Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 CO2 measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009 Near-term measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH4 and black carbon CO2 + Near-term measures

GAINS identified 16 key air quality measures that, together with CO2 mitigation, increase chances to stay below the 2º target

Global temperature 1900-2070

These 16 measures are ‒ win (for air quality), ‒ win (for near-term climate change) ‒ win (for economic development).

http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

Carbon payments for forest conservation would dramatically reduce species extinctions

Changes in forest cover over the twenty-first century, within presumed REDD-eligible regions Between 10 and 25% of 4,514 forest-dependent mammal and amphibian species would become extinct

World – Historic Primary Energy Transitions (changeover time Δt: 80-130 years)

25 50 75 100 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 Percent in Primary Energy

traditional biomass

coal

modern fuels:

• il, gas,

electricity

25 50 75 100 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 Percent in Primary Energy

traditional biomass

coal

modern fuels:

• il, gas,

electricity

Begin of energy policy Focus: Δt’s >2000 yrs

Source: GEA KM24, 2012

∆t -130 yrs ∆t -80 yrs ∆t +90 yrs ∆t +130 yrs

The Global Energy Assessment (GEA)

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE: BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES

1976 1981 1994 2000

RAINS helps cut sulfur dioxide

2010

MESSAGE has helped

• ver 80

countries with energy planning

• Initiated in 2006 and involves >300 CLAs and LAs and >200

Anonymous Reviewers

• Peer-review coordinated by Review Editors is complete -
• ngoing responses and revisions.

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Sponsoring Organizations

International Organizations

GEF IIASA UNDESA UNDP UNEP UNIDO ESMAP (World Bank)

Industry

First Solar Petrobras WBCSD WEC

Governments/Agencies

Austria - multi-year European Union Germany Italy Norway Sweden - multi-year USA (EPA, DoE)

Foundations

UN Foundation Climate Works Foundation Global Environment & Technology Foundation

Policy Tools for Decision Making

Climate Change Best Worst Resilience Dependence 0% 100% 100% Low X trill 0% High Y trill System Costs

More preferable, but more difficult

+80%

• 80%

Environment Energy Security Economy

Pollution/Health High Low

www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/geadb

GEA Database

Source: GEA

Mapping Energy Access

Source: GEA

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas

Source: GEA

Global Primary Energy

Efficiency

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Oil Gas

Source: GEA

Global Primary Energy

Efficiency

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2 2 5 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1

Grids & onsite generation

(fossil&bio-gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen)

Liquids

(oil products, biofuels,

• ther liquids)

Solids

(coal, biomass)

GEA-Supply GEA-Efficiency

Final Energy Transformations

Source: GEA

Energy Innovation and Investments Worldwide,

Billion $/year

Innovation (RD&D) Market formation Diffusion End‐use & efficiency >>8 5 300 ‐ 3500 Fossil fuel supply >12 >>2 200 ‐ 550 Nuclear >10 3 ‐ 8 Renewables >12 ≈20 >20 Electricity (GEN + T&D) >>1 ≈100 450 ‐ 520 Other* and unspecified >>4 <15 n.a. Total >50 <150 1000 ‐ 5000

Source: GEA

2050 Today

($185 billion)

No Sustainability Policies

($370 billion)

2005-2010

2010 & 2050

Investment Portfolio – China

Source: GEA

2005-2010 2050 2050

Today

($185 billion)

No Sustainability Policies

($370 billion)

GEA-Efficiency

($407 billion)

2010 & 2050

Investment Portfolio – China

Source: GEA

Conclusions……

• Energy service is a crucial development goal for

responding to challenges in the 21st century

• Energy transformation will bring multiple co-

benefits for health, security, climate change

• Financing requirements are huge but achievable

with right and sustained policies

• Universal access is a pre-condition for
• vercoming poverty and feasible if all stake-

holders work together.

FOOD & WATER

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Food and Water

Models, Data & Scenarios

Ratio of Actual (year 2000) to Potential (GAEZ high input level) Cereal Output

New web tool to improve accuracy of global land cover maps

A New Explanation of Biodiversity

World Water Scenarios

SCIENTIFIC OUTPUT 2010, 2011, 2012 (to June) 2010 2011 2012

Peer-reviewed journal articles according to SCOPUS 144 156 90 Citations of IIASA publications according to SCOPUS 4090 5205 2308

PUBLICATIONS & CITATIONS

H-INDEX

72

This h-index measures the productivity and impact

• f the 1858 journal articles by IIASA authors in the

SCOPUS database of peer-reviewed literature. Of these journal articles, 72 articles have been cited more than 72 times.

RESEARCH INTO POLICY

RESEARCH INTO POLICY

GAINS policy applications

Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution 1994 Second Sulphur Protocol 1999 Gothenburg Multi-pollutant/multi-effect Protocol 2012 Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol European Union 1999 National Emission Ceilings Directive 2004 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution 2010 Energy & Climate package, etc. 2013 Revision of the Thematic Strategy Further analyses for UNFCCC, Arctic Council, UNEP, Chinese government

GEA LAUNCH AT RIO+20

IIASA AS THE EXPERT ADVISOR

• IIASA researchers take part in 60 advisory boards

and steering committees, including:

– UN Secretary General Technical Group on Sustainable Energy for All – Advisory Council of the German Government on Global Change (WBGU) – Scientific Steering Group of the UNEP Black Carbon Assessment – UN World Water Scenarios – UN Food and Agriculture Organization Land and Water Division

GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - PRESIDENTS

H.E. DR. HEINZ FISCHER H.E. DR. VÁCLAV KLAUS

GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - MINISTERS

H.E. DR. KARLHEINZ TÖCHTERLE H.E. DR. GUSTI MUHAMMAD HATTA

GROWING INTEREST IN IIASA - AMBASSADORS

H.E. Ambassador Jingye Cheng H.E. Ambassador Shigeo Iwatani H.E. Ambassador Ana Martinho H.E. Ambassador I Gusti Agung Wesaka Puja

..and welcome soon in IIASA...!

Thank you

For further information about IIASA: www.iiasa.ac.at or inf@iiasa.ac.at